Keeper Conundrums: Requests, Part Three
During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today, I finish of the series by continuing to look at some of your ideas.
Ervin Santana
While he still hasn’t lived up to his 2008 break out, and likely never will, Santana has had a solid fantasy season. But, his periperals weren’t that far off from last season’s, leaving him with yet another regression year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 205 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I can guarantee you didn’t pay anything for him, so keep him on your roster next season.
Edwin Jackson
The addition of cutter upon arriving to Chicago made Jackson a second-half stud. Even though he’s been around the block, he’ll still only be 27 next year. If Jackson can continue his second-half surge, he’ll be one of the top pitchers in all of fantasy baseball next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 3.70 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s going to be solid next year, and I want a piece of that action.
Brian Matusz
Matusz has always been in my doghouse, thanks to his extreme fly ball tendencies. But, he did pitch extremely well in the last two months of the year, with xFIP’s around 4.00. I’m hoping he can take a step in the right direction next year, but I’m not going to bet much on it.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s very young, and pretty raw, and I want to see if he can keep performing at the level he showed late this year.
Andrew Bailey
His injury throws his status up in the air, but he did well upon his return. We only have a 132 inning sample, so we don’t know how high his BABIP should really be.
Crude 2011 Projection: 55 IP, 2.25 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’s probably in line for some progression, and we don’t know if the A’s are going to be any good next year.
Thanks for all the suggestions this week, hope this helped you in some way.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
I understand what you’re trying to say with Matusz, but by the remarks, for those of us who have seen him pitch every time out, it sounds like you’ve never actually seen him pitch. For one thing, yes, he is very young, and calling a young pitcher “raw” might seem a normal thing to say, but he isn’t. He’s actually surprisingly sophisticated for a young pitcher. His command seems remarkably polished without losing stuff to do so. He gets a lot of swings and misses. He holds runners well for a young guy (Could be better though) and doesn’t get rattled with runners in scoring position. One of the marked differences between his good stretches vs. The bad ones is his ability to pitch out of jams.
Based on what we’ve seen thus far, it looks like Matusz will be the kind of pitcher who does not blow hitters away, but has a strong all-around cerebral game featuring 4 quality pitches that confuse batters like Mussina and Glavine. These types are harder to predict success because they don’t have that one pitch that stands out as an offering that rivals the best in the league like a 98 mph fastball, but don’t discount such pitchers because they don’t have such a pitch.
The expectations for Matusz are pretty much unanimously high. I personally expect to see him progress in one big all-at-once leap (a less dramatic Cliff Lee perhaps?). I don’t think 2011 will be that season. I might go so far as to call him a cut in an H2H league where the Orioles supporting cast and his inconsistent play might cause him to be more harmful than helpful.
All of the guys named today really depend on the keeper rules and cost structure of your league.