Kazmir’s Loss of K’s

Remember “Scott Kazmir, Power Pitcher?” The diminutive lefty, stolen from the New York Mets in an infamous July 2004 deal for Victor Zambrano, established himself as one of the hardest pitchers to hit in the majors.

Sure, his control left something to be desired. But many sins can be forgiven when a southpaw in his early twenties boasts low-to-mid-90’s velocity with a strikeout rate nearing ten batters per nine frames (see Kershaw, Clayton).

After posting FIP’s of 3.76, 3.36 and 3.45 between 2005 and 2007, Kazmir appeared to take a step back in 2008. Sidelined with an elbow injury until early May, the 6-foot lefty wasn’t the same hurler we had become accustomed to.

His K rate remained high (9.81). But, his walk rate increased and his groundball rate plummeted from the low-40’s to just 31 percent. Throwing his heater three-quarters of the time and nearly scrapping his slider, Kazmir coughed up 1.36 homers per nine innings. His FIP was a mild 4.37.

In 2009, Kazmir has cut his walk rate to 3.67 per nine innings (4.14 in 2008). However, his strikeout rate has plummeted. Scott has registered just 7.15 K/9, a far cry from his career mark of 9.31 K/9.

Kazmir’s fastball (coming in at a career-low 91.1 MPH) hasn’t been the same plus this season. His heater was worth +0.55, +0.54 and +0.85 runs per 100 pitches from 2006-2008, but the pitch has been exactly average in 2009 (0.0 per 100 pitches). Kazmir has mixed in his slider more often (21.1%, compared to 9.6% in 2008), but it has been nothing special at -0.29 runs per 100 tosses. Only his 79 MPH changeup has been above-average, though just slightly (+0.09).

The 25 year-old’s diminished stuff is highlighted by his contact rates. On pitches within the strike zone, opposing batters have made contact 86.4% of the time. That’s the highest rate of Kazmir’s career, and comfortably above his career 84 percent mark.

However, the biggest change, by far, is Kazmir’s rate of contact on pitches outside of the zone. When he was whiffing nearly 10 hitters per nine innings, Kazmir posted O-Contact rates well below the major league average. This year, hitters aren’t getting fooled at all:

Kazmir’s O-Contact Rates, 2005-2009:

2005

Kazmir: 49.2
MLB Avg: 51.8

2006

Kazmir: 42.8
MLB Avg: 57.4

2007

Kazmir: 49.5
MLB Avg: 60.8

2008

Kazmir: 58.5
MLB Avg: 61.7

2009

Kazmir: 70.5
MLB Avg: 61.8

When Kazmir tosses a pitch off the plate in hopes of getting a whiff, hitters are making a ton of contact. His swinging strike percentage, mostly in the 11-12% range during his career, is just slightly over 8 percent in 2009 ( right around the MLB average of 7.8% for starters).

Want another indication that Kazmir is struggling to put batters away? Take his performance with two strikes on the batter. Baseball-Reference offers a stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average (100 is average, less than 100 is above-average for the pitcher, greater than 100 is below-average for the hurler). Kazmir’s sOPS+ with two strikes is 114 in 2009 (14 percent worse than the league average). His sOPS+ with two strikes was 84 in 2005, 85 in 2006, 69 in 2007 and 82 in 2008.

Kazmir has kept the fly balls as well, with a 33.8 GB%. He allowed nearly a homer per nine innings in ’09 (0.98 HR/9), despite a HR/FB rate well below the league average (7.3%). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB percentage) is an ugly 5.06.

Scott is signed through 2011, with a club option for the 2012 campaign. He’ll make a total of $20M over the 2010 and 2011 seasons, with a $13.5M option for 2012.

If he rebounds, he will be well worth the cash. But Kazmir has been an average starter for two years running. If he’s a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher, then he’s basically being paid what he’s worth. That would mean that Rays made out splendidly in Augusts’ swap with the Angels, parting with a declining starter being paid a market-value salary while picking up three decent prospects in Alexander Torres, Matt Sweeney and Sean Rodriguez.

Fantasy owners should approach Kazmir cautiously heading into 2010. He’s not the same dominant starter these days.