Kazmir Scraps the Slider, Takes to the Air

Tampa Bay Rays southpaw Scott Kazmir is exceptionally talented yet eminently frustrating. Still just 25 years of age heading into the 2009 season, Kazmir has a long history of missing bats (career 9.75 K/9) and walking the yard (4.13 BB/9). Those trends continued in 2008 (9.81 BB/9, 4.14 BB/9), but they way in which the former Mets farmhand went about getting those familiar results continued to change rather drastically. The 6 foot, 190 pounder has posted very similar ERA’s over the past three seasons (3.24, 3.48 and 3.49, respectively), but his pitching style and underlying skills have morphed from 2006 to the present day. It may sound strange to say, but the current version of Scott Kazmir scarcely resembles the guy who took the hill at the Trop a few years back.

By 2006, Kazmir had established himself as a lefty with plus velocity, a wipeout slider and a decent changeup. He used his 91.9 MPH heater 56.2% of the time, relying heavily on his nasty 84 MPH breaking pitch (28.6%) while also utilizing an 82 MPH changeup 15.2% of the time. Punching out 10.14 batters per nine innings and issuing 3.24 BB/9, Kazmir posted a sparkling 3.36 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA).

The shift in Kazmir’s pitch selection began in 2007, as he began to rely more heavily upon his fastball. Kazmir threw his 92.1 MPH cheese to batters 69.6% of the time, a hefty increase of 13.4% from the previous year. While he threw his 81.4 MPH change a little bit less (11.6%), it was Kazmir’s 83.7 MPH slider that took a considerable drop in usage (18.8%). Kazmir’s FIP ERA remained strong (3.45), as a small spike in K’s (10.41 per nine innings) offset an increase in walks (3.88 BB/9).

Kazmir took his fastball preference to even greater extremes this past season, as he threw his 91.7 MPH heater a whopping 75.3% of the time. Among starters tossing at least 150 innings, only perennial disappointment Daniel Cabrera and sinkerballers Aaron Cook and Mike Pelfrey utilized the fastball more often. Kazmir essentially scrapped his once-signature slider, throwing the 82 MPH pitch just 9.6%. Instead, he used a 78.8 MPH changeup as his preferred secondary offering, pulling the string on 15.1% of his total pitches.

By looking at Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog, it becomes apparent that Kazmir didn’t feel as comfortable using his slider in strikeout situations and in full counts:

0-and-2 pitch usage

2007: Fastball (58.7%), Slider (39.7%), Changeup (1.6%)

2008: Fastball (72.8%), Slider (24.3%) , Changeup (2.9%)

3-and-2 pitch usage

2007: Fastball (63%), Slider (26.1%) , Changeup (10.9%)

2008: Fastball (91.5%), Slider (2.1%) , Changeup (6.4%)

Kazmir preferred his fastball in situations where he got well ahead of the batter, and when he absolutely needed to throw a strike, he basically shunned his slider.

In 2008, Kazmir’s FIP ERA ascended to 4.37. The primary culprit was a big spike in home runs allowed. After posting HR/9 marks of 0.93 and 0.78 in 2006 and 2007 respectively, Kazmir tossed way too many pitches that ended up as souvenirs in ’08 (1.36 HR/9). One might be inclined to write the increased home runs off, believing it was just an anomaly. However, Kazmir was not particularly unlucky on flyballs, as his HR/FB ratio of 12% was just slightly above the norm. The cause of the homer increase can be tied to his becoming one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in the majors. After compiling groundball rates of 42% and 43.1% in 2006 and 2007 respectively, Kazmir put the ball in the dirt just 30.8% of the time in 2008. That was the lowest rate of any starter pitching at least 150 frames.

You wouldn’t really know it by taking a quick glance at his stat sheet, but Kazmir has changed his game plan quite a bit over the past few seasons. What sort of effect will these changes have on him going forward? Let’s deal with them one by one…

Increased fastball usage, far fewer sliders

Kazmir threw his heater nearly 20% more in 2008 than he did in 2006, rarely utilizing his once bread-and-butter slider. It’s difficult to say what sort of role Kazmir’s elbow injury played in his pitch usage. Was he rarely breaking out the slider because it put increased pressure on his tender arm? If so, will he return to throwing it more often in 2009, or will he continue to favor the less stressful changeup? Also, what sort of effect did Kazmir’s fastball love have on his walk rate? Was his pitch selection the cause of his even more pronounced control issues, or was that the product of his elbow troubles?

Using the changeup as his favored offspeed pitch

If Kazmir prefers the changeup, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The speed differential between his fastball and change has increased over the past few seasons (9.9 MPH in ’06, 10.7 MPH in ’07, and 12.9 MPH in ’08), and the pitch features excellent vertical drop:

Fastball : 5.92 X, 10.48 Z
Changeup: 7.46 X, 4.1 Z

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Kazmir’s change shows both fading and tumbling action, dropping over 6 inches further than his fastball. Combine that movement with a solid speed differential, and Kazmir’s change has the makings of a knockout pitch.

Flyball tendencies

It was one season of data, but Kazmir became the most extreme flyball pitcher in the big leagues. Should those tendencies stick, he’s going to surrender plenty of longballs again in 2009. With starts coming against forces such as Fenway Park’s Green Monster (doubles park factor from 2006-2008: 143), The Rogers Centre (HR park factor: 113) and Camden Yards (HR park factor: 123), putting the ball in the air so often is probably not advisable.

Kazmir posted another shiny ERA in 2008, but his controllable skills took a bit of a backslide as he battled his control and gave up home runs aplenty. A .275 BABIP and an extraordinarily high 82.5 LOB% masked his problems, but Kazmir could disappoint if he takes to the air with such frequency again in 2009.