Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – September 18th, 2023

Justin Mason: Will start in a little bit. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Mike: This week..cristopher sanchez , Valdez or Eflin?

Justin Mason: Eflin

Gameface: Finals this week in dynasty H2H 5×5 and Salvy finally went down. B. Naylor, Garver or Rogers as a replacement? Thanks Justin.

Justin Mason: I think I roll with Garver here.

Tim: Thank you for all your help this season! I am in a 14t H2H dynasty and can add a minor league prospect for the future and have the apparent best options ranked as: Horton, Whisenhunt, Iriarte….any of them you’d like as a stash? I’ve seen mixed reviews on each

Justin Mason: Horton is a dude. I am grabbing him for sure.

Guest: would you do any streaming in 12T roto if tied with 2 people in QS but <0.15 ERA from losing 4 points?

Justin Mason: Really depends on the options. I am in a similar spot in some leagues and have gone reliever heavy just because there aren’t great options. I play it pretty safe if I am protecting ratios.

Why not Zoidberg?: Have HR, RBI, SV, ERA, and WHIP pretty locked if I change nothing but need 6 cats to win it all because my opponent takes ties. Close in all other cats but Ks which I know I’m not winning. Got a little lucky with a reliever focused strategy last week and I’m up 3 wins. Smarter play to keep it reliever heavy, keep the cats I have locked and cross my fingers I pull 1 of the remaining 4 cats,  or put in some extra starters this week risking my ERA/WHIP against my low innings totals and give myself a better chance at Wins? Opponent has 9 starts by some very good pitchers in his lineup this week (Woodruff, Cole, Burnes, Peralta, Steele, Montgomery…). I could put in Skubal (almost certain to), Garrett, Pepiot, Wicks, and/or Webb. 1.73 vs 4.89 ERA, .826 vs 1.30 WHIP.

Justin Mason: Feels like you have a pretty good cushion in the ratios to chase more wins. I think I would all those starters if I had to choose in a weekly format.

Adenolith: Any concern starting Acuna in a weekly H2H championship? No clue what his injury is or how it’s going.

Justin Mason: I don’t know how you sit him but he is most likely going to get some time off with the Braves having things wrapped up.

Farmer Ted (not a farmer): Thanks for the chats this season.   Who would you start this week – pick two:  Bassitt @ Rays,  Keller @ Cubs, Lugo v. Rockies in SD?

Justin Mason: Bassitt and Keller

Adenolith: Week 2 of a H2H matchup. Have HR (+10) and RBIs (+24) more or less locked. Trying to lock down R (+6), SB (-1), or AVG (-.007). Would you replace Muncy or JD Martinez with Willi Castro, Tommy Pham, or Andres Gimenez?

Justin Mason: I could see doing Muncy for Gimenez. Cleveland has a pretty nice set up versus mostly bad pitching.

Kate: So uh could Sawyer gipson-long be something in 2024?  Maybe a top 50 sp?  I know it’s only a couple starts against crappy lineups, but two swing and miss secondaries, good command, and two decent fastballs in a good pitchers park.  The tools are there right?

Justin Mason: We just talked about him on The Sleeper and the Bust pod this morning. I am pretty into him. I don’t know if I will have him top 50, but I think he could be in that conversation at some point. Full arsenal with great command in a good park and division.

B’ryce Hammer: Won my H2H home league championship yesterday. Kinda bummed it’s all over!

Justin Mason: Congrats!!!

Gameface: Grossman or Wallner this eeek?

Justin Mason: Wallner

Guest: Thoughts on Gavin Williams?  He’s been up and down and seems to have a problem with walks. His last start, he looked pretty good against the Rangers though. Don’t love the BAL matchup, but DET could be nice.

Justin Mason: I am rolling with him. I love the stuff and while the Baltimore matchup is tough, the Detroit makes it worth it for me.

Hank: With Perez, going on the concussion IL, do you like Moreno even though only 5 Dbacks games and a tough hitting schedule or Campusano, who finally seems healthy and getting a nice chance?

Justin Mason: I would roll with Campy unless I needed batting average protection.

Gameface: Blackburn or Butto for the two-step? Thanks again, Justin.

Justin Mason: Butto.

Gah: So much for protecting my ratios by sitting Webb @ Coors…

Justin Mason: I was really shocked about that. I sat him in a league too. Process over results sometimes, but I know it stings.

DH: Stash Yelich, or move on from him?

Justin Mason: Stash

Guest: Drop K Marte for Julien or J Polanco? Last week HTH daily

Justin Mason: I am rolling with Marte.

Let’s Go: Thanks for doing these all sseason!  In a shallow H2H category league that includes 5+H,K,BB.  What do with guys like Santander and Bichette.  Are they droppable?  Should they be benched over guys like Evan Carter and Mark Canha?  Santander had a 75% K rate last week

Justin Mason: I don’t mind moving on from Santander for a guy like Canha who has just been a hit machine. I can’t drop Bichette

Max: Jazz, Gleber or Muncy Weekly categories

Justin Mason: Jazz

DH: How do you feel about Keaton Winn heading into next year? Stuff+ loves him, but he has a bizarre pitch mix.

Justin Mason: Really depends on what the role is heading into next year. If he has a rotation spot, I think he is an interesting cheap guy at the end of the draft, but I don’t know what the Giants are planning to do in free agency and if they even think of him as a traditional starter considering they don’t have a ton of those any more.

RAGBRAI: Did you see Montero being a starter next year in Colorado? How about Goodman?

Justin Mason: I think Montero could be but is likely a semi regular like he usually has been. Goodman is really interesting because the Rockies seem to like him and want to give him a chance but the swing and miss could be a real issue. I don’t know that the underlying skills make him interesting outside of just being a Coors hitter.

EJ: Justin whaddap!!! Is Logan Gilbert a drop in 10s (2x vs Texas to finish the season) ? Garrett vs Mets tomorrow could replace him, for example…would love your thoughts!

Justin Mason: I would make that move. I love Garrett and while I love Gilbert the matchups make it easier to switch.

Kevin: I’ve got 13 starts left to play with, need QS badly. Start Montgomery tonight against BOS?

Justin Mason: I think it is pretty risky, but I am a Monty guy so I would. If you are being more conservative, I would skip it because Boston could hit him around.

Daro: are you starting Erod, Sears, Maeda in a semi finals h2h? we count K/9 as a stat

Justin Mason: I would start Sears and Erod

Mike: Elly, Bohm or Suzuki weekly categories league

Justin Mason: Suzuki

Andrew: In points league finals that spans two weeks.  Have 8 adds left for that span.  Drop Lawlar and McKinistry now?  Need a CI eligible player for one.  Also will need to stream 5-6 pitcher starts with Bibee’s injury. Ks are -1 points.

Options:  Heyward, A Kirilloff, Jung, K Farmer, M Vierling, A Ibanez, E Montero, O Cabrera, DJ Stewart

Thank you

Justin Mason: Give me Jung and Vierling here.

Bert: Starting Wheeler vs. ATL? I have a slim lead in a 15tm roto, could use the W. Doing okay in ERA/WHIP but a blowup could hurt in the long run.

Justin Mason: It is risky, but with Acuna likely out, I would.

David: Clinging to 1st place in a 5×5 13 teamer.  Avg, HRs, SBs still in play.  Please rank my options for my U spot:  Ceddanne Rafaela, Josh Lowe or R McMahon.  TB is facing at least 3 lefties this week so I’m worried about Lowe, and McMahon on the road has me leaning toward the rookie.

Justin Mason: I will take Rafaela

Shooter McGavin: Last week I started both Lyles and Toussiant who were head to head on the second game of a double header, thinking that they’d be facing weaker lineups with many starters sitting out the second game.  This turned out horribly for me. Good process, bad results? Or bad process, bad results?  Is there any evidence to support my hypothesis?

Justin Mason: I think it was bad execution. Neither are good enough pitchers especially taking the double gamble. I like the thought process, but you negated the obvious talent issue.

MM: Do you trust Kershaw at all right now, even against SF?

Justin Mason: Yeah, the Giants offense is awful.

Guest: Feel good about Gausman facing NYY twice? Pitching unpredictability is killing me!

Justin Mason: I do. He is still a stud

Chuck: Would you please massage Ronald Acuna Jr.’s calf?

Justin Mason: Not going to lie, I don’t have Acuna on any of my competitive teams, so I hope he sits out until the playoffs.

Stringer Bell: Looking for some sneaky QS streams to help me bring home my 12T championship. Got any recs? Thanks Justin!

Justin Mason: Sawyer Gipson-Long, Cal Quantrill, JP France, Edward Cabrera, Ranger Suarez, Jameson Taillion, Javier Assad, Zack Thompson

Justin Mason: That was in no particular order.

Phil: Waiting to activate Jung for my playoff. Do I drop Burger or Nolan Jones?

Justin Mason: I can drop Jones for Jung.

MM: Kikuchi at NYY tomorrow, or Kershaw later in the week vs SF?

Justin Mason: Kershaw

Ratatouille: 15 team keeper, playing for this year and looking to next: drop C. Sanchez for Detmer? Sanchez has good ratios but doesn’t deliver W’s (this season, anyway). Who’d you rather have for a couple bucks next year?

Justin Mason: Sanchez

Last chance: E Cabrera c quatrill or Taj Bradley this week 2 starts h2h?

Justin Mason: Quantrill if you need ratio help. Cabrera if you want K’s

Help: C Schmidt good 2 starts h2h or take shot with Taj bradley

Justin Mason: Schmidt.

David: Thanks for the advice, as always!  One more – start Sanchez (@ATL, NYM) or Canning (@TB) this week?  Fighting for Wins, Ks, WHIP and ERA

Justin Mason: Sanchez and pray that ATL doesn’t kill him.

Buff: Trying to stash cheap starters for 2024 NL-only roto keeper, loaded up on Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Luis Ortiz, Andre Jackson, Ryne Nelson, Joan Adon, Tylor Megill, Connor Phillips. Not a great group, I know. Any you like? Who would be your first drops?

Justin Mason: I like both Dodgers guys and Ortiz. Nelson has good stuff, but I think he is a reliever long term. The others are meh.

Justin Mason: I am through all the questions. fire more at me!

DH: In what league contexts are you considering running out Olson vs LAD this week?

Justin Mason: Probably just 15-teamers unless I can withstand a drubbing.

Guest: Any chance Tyler Black or Jared Jones get called up?

Justin Mason: I think most teams have called up the guys that they are going to at this point.

David: Ok – one more – Quantrill or Sanchez this week?

Justin Mason: Quantrill

John: H2h points. Lugo at Col or GRod at Cleveland?

Justin Mason: Grayson

Buff: Colin Holderman, Andrew Nardi, or Carmen Mlodzinski for value next year?

Justin Mason: I think I lean Holderman here.

Colton: I don’t think I’ve ever actively avoided a lineup the way I have Atlanta’s the second half of the season. Have you ever seen anything like what they’ve been able to do before?

Justin Mason: They have been unreal. I have avoided them the entire second half as well except with studs. They are just too good top to bottom.

Champ.week: C Schmidt or ed Cabrera H to H who you roll.with this week

Justin Mason: Schmidt.

citizen.ab: going into championship week, have to start 2 of K Marte (5 games), S Steer (6 games), or Nootbaar (7 games).  Gut says Marte and Steer?

Justin Mason: I think I lean Steer and Nootbaar here. Marte only has five games and two of them are versus Webb and Cobb

KC Pain: Do you think Josh Naylor is for real or on a hot streak of a season?  Prime Jose Abreu a decent comp?

Justin Mason: At first I was going to say you were crazy for that comp, but now that I look at it, it isn’t that bad. I think obviously Naylor has more speed and Abreu more power, but the gains against lefties this year for Naylor has been really impressive. I think it is pretty legit.

NZ: Thanks for a great season of insights Jason. 10 team 5×5 Roto. Trying to maintain RBI, BA, R. The gleam seems to be fading from Davis Schneider. Drop for Mauricio or Tovar?

Justin Mason: Yeah, grab Mauricio

David: Gunnar Henderson will be a top __ player next year

Justin Mason: I think he is likely 50-75 player. Could be higher but I still have questions against left handed pitching.

NZ: Btw, thank you Justin! Hopefully my only brain cramp during the last two weeks of the season, lol.

Justin Mason: Lol. Good luck rest of the way!

Moxie: Thanks for answering our questions.  However, most of your answers and those of other pundits who use this Q&A format are based on top-of-the-head responses.  Wouldn’t it make sense to answer a few questions once a week with carefully considered, evidence-based answers?  However, I will ask a question expecting a top-of-the-head answer: What stats do you expect COL’s Brendan Rodgers to produce next year roughly?

Justin Mason: That is what this type of format of questioning answers asks for. People coming to ask questions they want immediate answers for. Articles is where we answer the more in-depth questions. As far as Rodgers goes, I think I will likely have him as a .260 ish hitter with 15-20 home runs depending on how many plate appearances I give him. He has yet to get to 140 games played in the Majors so I am likely to give him about 130 games at most.

TheBigDoodle: Tied for wins, gonna lose Ks. ERA and WHIP us very close. Not any great streaming options, should I go for some of the top relievers? Have good starters with good starts, can ride that partnership. Thinking maybe brash/ armstrong, maybe payamps. As opposed to streaming someone like braxton garrett. Thanks

Justin Mason: I like the thought process, though I do like Garrett as a guy to use this week. In my Main Event and Auction Championship, I have been using Coulombe, Stephenson, and Megill instead of traditional starters to protect my ratios and sneak a few wins and saves.

citizen.ab: Thank you!

Justin Mason: Thank you for reading and listening to me!

Paul: Thanks for taking the time to do a chat. AL-Only 6×6 (QS the extra pitching category) – roll the dice with John Means (@Hou @Cle) over one of these single start guys – Ryu (@TB), Maeda (@Cin), Gavin Williams (v Balt)?

Justin Mason: I think I would pass on Means for Ryu or Williams. Lean Ryu

Enlightening Round: any suggestions at all for starting pitching dart throws, just lost Bibee, lost Scherzer last week, Fried is getting extra days, I’m dragging my team to the finish line.  Boyle worth a shot?

Justin Mason: Might want to just go the reliever route over a guy like Boyle. Unless Gipson-Long or Butto are available, I think I just roll with a high impact middle reliever.

Guest: How do you feel about Ragans redux vs Houston? Thank you!

Justin Mason: I think he should be fine. Hopefully the Royals don’t roll him out for the seventh again

E: Looks like I’m gonna win my 12 team roto, but trying to hold on to avg. Are you dropping HKim, he’s been very slumpy and now it sounds like he might hae an abdominal injury. Replace with Maruicio? Or I can slot in Jazz and add an OF who’s running hot like Olivares or Tyrone Taylor?

Justin Mason: That is tough because when he is right, Kim is a huge asset in average. I think I would stick with him if he is in the lineup today. If not, move JAzz to MI and run with Oliveras.

Paul: Does Maeda @CIN scare you at all?

Justin Mason: Petrifies me. I would nit use him there unless I was desperate.

Krispy: Thoughts on C Sanchez and Z Thompson as cheap keepers for next season ($3 after inflation in Ottoneu)?  Can they be sub-4.00, 9 K/9 guys?

Justin Mason: I don’t really believe in Thompson, but I am a believer in Sanchez. He should be locked into a rotation spot next year.

KC Pain: Do you have any low avg high power performers who you think have the hit tool to have a nice bump in their average?  Id love for Doyle in CO to hit .250 or Muncy to return to his old ways for example.

Justin Mason: I think Muncy is a good example. I also think Ty France and Steven Kwan should bounceback in average. Willy Adames is another that should be more of a .250 guy.

BSLBobby: We’re trying out a rookie keeper this year – how would you Rank Eury Perez, Tanner Bibee and Matt McClain? If next season is lost, would you keep either pitcher over Luis Castillo  or McClain over Jose Ramirez in anticipation of a run starting in 2025?

Justin Mason: Talked a lot about Bibee and McLain on the pod today. I am going to be really high on them, but not to the levels of a Castillo or J-Ram. I think you are hoping that they turn into those guys.

Jason: What do you make of Giolito’s last start?  He looked great against Texas.  Do you start him at KC this week or stick with pitchers like Woo at OAK or Pepiot versus DET?  Thanks.

Justin Mason: I think I would go with Woo for sure. Pepiot probably too over Giolito. He is just too inconsistent.

JV: Pick 3 starters for this week.  NEED ERA and K – C. Sanchez at Atl, vs NYM; Nola at Atl; Maeda at Cin; Cease at Bos; Bradish at Hou; Bello at Tex

Justin Mason: Bradish, Nola, Sanchez

Mick: Do any of Taj Bradley’s starts interest you this week?

Justin Mason: I would take his LAA start. Do not want the TOR one.

Krispy: What do you see from JoJo Romero long-term?  Peripherals are tasty: 22% K-BB, 59% GB

Justin Mason: I think he is likely a middle reliever long term, but with the injury issues at the back the STL pen, he could get back into the ninth if Helsley gets hurt again.

Chip: In H2H 12 tm championship against a guy who streams an SP daily. Do I need to do the same to keep up, or go with my guys and protect ratios?

Justin Mason: Depends on your categories, but I tend to want to zag when other zig, so I would try and protect my ratios and win saves along with that.

KC Pain: Pick 2; Blackburn at home vs SEA & DET, Skubal @LAD, or Giolito @KC?

Justin Mason: Skubal and Giolito

BaltimOre’s: Do you like a RP (Merryweather, Hader, or Ginkel) over Ober (@CIN), Ragans (@HOU), Abbott (vs PIT)? Looking for a 10th pitcher, no particular category. Just looking for someone that won’t hurt my ratios, but provide a win/save.

Justin Mason: Give me Abbott vs PIT.

Justin Mason: Ok, got through all the questions again, so I will wrap things up. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Good luck in your playoffs and leagues!