Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – May 19, 2025

Justin Mason: I will begin at the top of hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Grade the trade: 12T 5×5 OBP roto league: I give Seiya Suzuki and get Christian Yelich. Which side do you like more?

Justin Mason: I think in OBP I give the edge to Yelich especially with the speed component.

Royal Pain: 5×5 OBP league, drop India for Rafaela or Vargas?

Justin Mason: I would for Vargas

ROS ranks: Rank these pitchers ROS in a 5×5 roto lg please? Jobe, Leiter, Zebby, Megill, Roupp, Baz, Giolito

Justin Mason: Megill, Leiter, Giolito, Roupp, Baz, Jobe

Stashes: Been holding onto Kurtz for a bit now in a 12T Pts, I can afford to keep stashing and cope that things will turn around – would you drop for someone like Anthony/Meyer/Shaw? When do you think the BOS rookies will come up?

Justin Mason: I think there is a chance one of the Boston guys are up this week so if you want to take a shot, now is the time. I would give Kurtz the beginning part of this week if possible because it is supposed to be 90+ degrees the next three days in Sac and that stadium should play well

Han Tyumi: Need to drop an OF when Acuña comes back. How would you rank Stowers, Hays, Mullins in roto?

Justin Mason: Hays, Mullins, Stowers

Outfielders: You named dropped L Butler and B Doyle on your latest podcast when comparing to the potential Barger breakout.  What’s your latest take on Butler and Doyle? Both seem to be struggling and have moved down their respective lineups.

Justin Mason: Not concerned by Doyle at all. His underlying numbers are fine and I think he will be as well. Butler on the other hand, is a bit concerning. Swinging strike rate has jumped up and the z-contact has dipped. It only seems to be getting worse in May too. I am not dropping yet, but I am concerned

Joe: Please rank ROS for 12 team h2h categories league with QS; Wacha, Ranger Suarez and Jake Irvin. Thanks

Justin Mason: Wacha, Suarez, Irvin

bdubs: 12T Mixed (HR, RBI, SB, Ave)

Drop Caminero for Jung?

Currrent OF’s (looked good on draft day, then the season started): Santander, Alvarez, Harris, Ramos, Chourio
Thinking of finally dropping Santander for Stowers, JH Lee, Kwan? And maybe Harris for either of Lee or Kwan (who seem like almost the same player)?

Justin Mason: I think Caminero and Jung are pretty close but I lean Caminero. I would drop Santander for Kwan or Lee. Probably not dropping Harris yet, but it’s not a big drop off (or maybe any drop off) from Harris to Lee

RossN: Ben Brown or Mitch Keller this week (12-team roto)?

Justin Mason: Brown

Vinnie P: Is a turnaround coming?

Justin Mason: I think so. Underlying contact numbers are good. Still hitting the ball hard. I think he is going to be better

Two-Start Tango: Hi Justin, which two-step do we like: Dobbins, Cabrera, or. L. Allen? Thank you!

Justin Mason: Dobbins

Tim: when asked last night, Jeff wasn’t too optimistic about Matt Shaw…where are you on him? I already have Jung/Bohm, but am hoping Shaw could be a step above that

Justin Mason: He is making better contact in the minors and he is expected to be recalled today. I think he is definitely worth taking a shot on over Bohm who is pretty boring of a player. I don’t think there is massive upside in Shaw, but I do seeing him being a good accumulator on a very good Cubs team.

Warren: How would you rank Winn, McLain, Matt Shaw, Jordan Lawler in a 12 team 2 year keeper league?

Justin Mason: McLain, Winn, Shaw, Lawlar for this year

McLain, Shaw, Lawlar Winn for the next two years

Robby: Sent in this question a week or two ago: what’s up with the Brew Crew’s Yelich & Chourio? Counting numbers look fine, but those ratios… yikes. Yelich groundball rate up, Chourio with a .260 OBP and bad statcast #’s. Obvious holds in 12teamers, but when do you consider selling a potential “bounceback” to trade partners? My belief is shaken

Justin Mason: Chourio has the profile of someone trying to swing his way out of a slump. Needs to be more patient, especially with things outside the zone. The in-zone contact numbers are great, so a small approach change might be massive for him. I wouldn’t sell.

Yelich is getting unlucky in the BABIP dept (.243 BABIP this year when the career is .346) He is making the worst contact of his career which is concerning, but he should be better than this.

Yuuuuu: Please rank Baz, Meyer, Leiter and Roupp ROS

Justin Mason: Meyer, Leiter, Roupp, Baz

PG: How would you rank: Birdsong, Abel, D Peterson, G Holmes ROS?

Justin Mason: Birdsong, Abel, Peterson, Holmes

Guest: Rank Brady Singer, Zebby Matthews, & Ben Brown 16 team head to head points

Justin Mason: Brown, Zebby, Singer

Oof: Hays has looked very pedestrian since returning from his (latest) injury.  Can you rank him, Beck, and Josh Lowe for points leagues?  Any strong preference?

Justin Mason: Lowe – big gap- Hays – big gap – Beck

More or less: Bought low on Baz with Chris Morel (al obp league). Will I regret the move?

Justin Mason: Prbably not because I have zero faith in Morel

Larry Sellers: Any hope for a Royce Lewis bounce back can he finish top 5 3B Ros?

Justin Mason: I believe in the talent if he is healthy.

Scott G: Have an extra MI, how would you rank:
Gleyber $28
J Pena $22
Tovar $22
McLain $20

Justin Mason: McLain, Pena, Tovar, Gleyber

Chucky: ROS rank in a keep forever 12t H2H. Julio, Beck and Butler

Justin Mason: Julio, Butler, Beck

Yordone: Hearing the Astros talk about the minor-ness of yordan’s hand injury and then a week later that he’s just not quite ready yet is giving me Kyle Tucker ptsd flashbacks.

Justin Mason: Yeah, it is weird that he is not ready yet. Nothing you can do but wait

OuttaHere: How would you rank Stowers, Hays, Beck and Josh Lowe.  Need to pick up one in my points league. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Lowe, Hays, Stowers, Beck

nick: small sample size, but do you have any interest in varsho? how would he compare vs someone like taylor ward or dominguez?

Justin Mason: Varsho is who he has always been. A guy with power and speed, but lacks a good hit tool to make him consistent week to week. His defense will keep him playing when he isn’t hitting, but there will be massive ups and downs. Prefer his upside to the other two but he will be maddening to roster

SPHelps: In a points league where QS matters more than Wins, would you start a pitch-count strider or a recent 6-inning Rasmussen this week?

Justin Mason: I am still going with strider

Jerome: What are the Dodgers doing exactly with Casparius? The stuff is unreal, there are innings to fill…and they just “snip snap snip snap” with stretching him out at all

Justin Mason: hard to know exactly what they are going to do. I would prefer them to just keep him in a 3-4 inning follower role where we can scoop wins, but I think they are just playing it week to week right now

Vince: 12-team H2H, OBP. Is it time to drop Semien? Matt Shaw is available.

Justin Mason: yeah, at this point, I would drop him for Shaw

CC: Could you rank these 3 middling rookie starters on ROS trajectory? Chad Patrick, Stephen Kolek, Logan Evans

Justin Mason: Kolek, Patrick Evans

A.L. SP Churning: AL only, h2h, ROS…punting saves…..looking to stream eight pitchers through the playoffs.  What two would you drop? Pepiot, Lugo, Blanco, Bello, Ortiz, Buehler, Hoglund, Matthews, Cameron, Fitts

Justin Mason: Bello and Buehler

SUSaki: So Sasaki’s fastball is worthless without high 90s velo, but when he throws hard he keeps getting injured and has no command. Also apparently he’s not even capable of throwing hard even if he wanted to, for some mysterious reason? Isn’t he kinda cooked, unless he’s able to completely rework his fastball?

Justin Mason: I think it is too soon to say he is cooked, but I do think they did him a disservice by making him start in the Majors. He clearly is still very raw. In the end, I trust the talent and the org so I think he will be fine, but for this year, I am not expecting much

nick: when do we realistically consider dropping altuve? 12 tm h2h cats league, alternatives would be kim fitzgerald or matt shaw

Justin Mason: I am not doing that yet

More OF: I have a glut of meh OF options right now (outside of my King PCA) and struggling to find the differences in value across rostered OF vs. top waiver wire. Right now throwing a out a starting OF of PCA, Butler, Arozerana, Mullins, with Soler on the bench and Ward, Grisham, Ramos, Stowers all staring at me from the waiver wire.

ROS projections love Ward – do you have a favorite of the waiver group – all clear upgrades over Soler? 12-team h2h

Justin Mason: Ward is probably my favorite followed closely by Ramos

Spot the spot starter: Logan Evans @cws, Cannon vs Tex, cecconi @min?

Justin Mason: Cecconi’

Chucky: Points H2H redraft. Baldwin or Agustin?

Justin Mason: Ramirez

Larry Sellers: Any hope for a 2023 repeat for Adolis Garcia? Or is he going to continue his 2024 downward trend?

Justin Mason: a little hope but not a ton

Oddball Herrera: How patient are you being with Crews?  Cruising along with a sub .200 BA, but the HR+SB looks juicy if he can get that to a palatable number

Justin Mason: xBA is .255. If he was hitting that, would we be worried? I think he will be fine. He is a good hitter that has had some early struggles

Shaw Time: Shaw getting re-promoted today.  You starting him right away (if he’s in the lineup)?

Justin Mason: I am in my 12-teamer

Larry Sellers: Who concerns you more Albies or semien?

Justin Mason: Semien

Larry Sellers: Heliot Ramos just on a hot streak or is there top 20 OF upside ros

Justin Mason: I don’t think top 20, but top 30 maybe

Chucky: As per your Butler concerns as stated above, trade Butler for Logan Henderson in a keep forever? Butler was a keeper of mine over LuBob.

Justin Mason: I think I would want a bit more back for Butler. I like Henderson, but he is a two pitch guy and that will be problematic until he finds that third pitch

Matt W.: Hi Justin,

Justin Mason: HI!

nick: gallen has been rough this season. we still holding on in 12s? roupp would probably be best replacement on the WW

Justin Mason: yeah, I am not dropping him for Roupp

Yordan Alvarez: Do I return to form when I come off IL?

Justin Mason: I think he will

Matt W.: Has your opinion changed of Andrew Abbott 4 good starts in a row.

Justin Mason: not really. The starts have been but the stuff is still not very good and I don’t believe in the control. That park is scary as well. I think this is a sell high point with the Cubs coming to town on Friday

Erik: Think a Jasson Dominguez breakout is eventually coming? Or is he just a middling OF the rest of the year?

Justin Mason: I would lean towards the latter

Tim: How much more regression to the mean do we see in Tylor Megill? The latest outings have been really rough and we’re actually approaching a month since his last QS

Justin Mason: the last two were two really good teams getting lucky in the BABIP on him. I want to hold for now because after he faces Boston this week, he gets a White Sox home start the following week

Brian in Cape Porpoise Maine: Is Moises Ballesteros’s bat ready? Is he a short time injury replacement? Major league results suggest he needs more seasoning, AAA stats suggest he’s a prodigy, phenotype suggests he’s svelter John Kirk.

Justin Mason: I think he is a short term option while HApp is on the IL. Will get some strong side ABs in the meantime, but I don’t know that he is super enticing outside of deeper two-catcher leagues for this season.

Guest: 30t dynasty just how too-quickly did we move on from braves sending harris/albies getting maikel/dcrews?

Justin Mason: I have no problem with that. I think Crews could be the best player in that deal and I love Garcia

matty25: Time to cut Semien lose in a 14-teamer?

Justin Mason: borderline

Christina: in dynasty for ROs and beyond, who’s best: Birdsong, Dobbins, Priester

Justin Mason: Dobbins, Birdsong, Priester

Zebby Stardust: Thoughts on Zebby Matthews? Is he a viable 12 teamer ahead of the likes of Meyer, Leiter, Roupp, etc?

Justin Mason: I love the stuff, but Twins will be really careful with his usage, so I wouldn’t expect many wins or any QS for the most part. There is also a chance he gets sent back down pretty quickly if he struggles at all. I would put Meyer and Leiter above him in terms of ROS value, but he clearly has the highest upside of the group

Guest: Is Baz broken?

Justin Mason: feels like it

Baz: Shane Baz has good stuff/location, k-bb, etc, but can’t even take down the Marlins. Would you sit vs blue jays this week?

Justin Mason: depends on my other options, but probably

mochibetts: re: Noah Cameron, had good K% all through the minors.  Any reason to think he won’t level out well above the current 13% and trend more towards 20-22%?

Justin Mason: I think he should be closer to 20%. He is a guy I targeted in FAAB this week. Just depends on how long Ragans and Lugo are out for to see if he can solidify a rotation spot.

Adenolith: Logan Henderson or Zebby?

Justin Mason: Henderson for this year

Justin Mason: Zebby long term

Guest: If you had to guess today, will Jordan Lawlar adapt to MLB pitching (somehow while playing part time) or will he be sent back down eventually?

Justin Mason: I think he is more likely to get sent down than have value right now

Tallulah Trebuchet: Would you hang on to Xavier Edwards or Bryce Miller in a 12 teamer? Out of IL slots and can only stash one. Need both steals and innings, unfortunately.

Justin Mason: Miller for me

Greg: Birdsong or Henderson in a standard roto league?

Justin Mason: Henderson

Adenolith: I don’t have space to play him, but Burger’s a FA in our league. Would you drop K. Campbell for him?

Justin Mason: I would be ok doing that in a redraft

Joe: Any thoughts on the early returns from Josh Lowe?

Justin Mason: Looks good so far and that park is going to play so well for him. I picked him up in a league where he was dropped after the injury and have been stashing, so I am excited to see what he can do

Zen Moment: How deep a league to throw lorenzen @sf? He had a shut out into the 8th last time out but not impressive k”s.

Justin Mason: I don’t mind doing this in a 15. Maybe a 12. SF isn’t a great hitting team overall (16th in WRC+) and this is in SF which is a great place to pitch.

Woooooooooo!: In a keeper, would you rather have Bryan Woo (expiring) or Jack Flaherty ($5 through 2026)?

Justin Mason: Woo

wmquirk: In a tough spot – need to drop someone this week. Candidates are Josh Jung, Yanier Diaz (I have Ivan Herrera but like having two catchers), Brendan Donovan, Josh Smith or Tyler Fitzgerald

Justin Mason: Fitz

Reed: Rank the following OFs where OPS is a sixth hitting category: Santander, Reynolds, Robert, Hays, Lee?

Justin Mason: Lee, Reynolds, Stander, Robert, Hays

Mike: Are we seeing a legitimate break out from Hunter Goodman? Expected stats have ticked up and we can expect some degree of overperformance with Coors, right?  .260 with a 30 HR pace realistic?

Justin Mason: I think he is more of a .240-.250 hitter, but 30 bombs is on the table and he is making decent in-zone contact.

Why not Zoidberg: Love your stuff, Justin. Pick 2 for the week – Zebby, Taillon, Rasmussen, Gonsolin, Severino

Justin Mason: Taillon, Gonsolin

larry: Is R. Olson a streamer or bench pitcher? Looking to drop him or Liberatore for hitter. If so who would you pickup Yandy or Holliday? Thanks

Justin Mason: This is tough because I like both pitchers, but I would drop Olson over Liberatore and pick up Holliday

StruggleBus: Drop D. Moore (frustrated by platoon role) for Miguel Vargas/Benson? Which do you like more for the year?

Justin Mason: I prefer Vargas

Painter the corner: Gotta drop one to activate Strider, 12tm, keep forever, points league:  Gonsolin, Henderson, ASS, Zebby, Leiter, Misorowski…could you rank them to help me decide?

Justin Mason: Gonsolin, Zebby, Leiter, Mis, Henderson, Smith-Shawver

Trey: Sale/Harris II or Y.Alvarez in a 10 Team Dynasty OBP/QS/K-BB

Justin Mason: Alvarez

Rob: Mike Soroka is doing some really interesting stuff under the hood, but results haven’t followed. Would you rather have him, Cameron or G. Holmes?

Justin Mason: Cameron

Power Bats: How would you rank ROS in an OBP league: Manzardo, Ward, Kurtz. Thanks, Justin!

Justin Mason: Kurtz, Ward, Manzardo

Guest: Lawlar situation seems like a real pain, no? Interrupting a AAA heater to give him sparse playing time. He doesn’t seem suited to the role..

Justin Mason: Seems like there might be disagreement between the front office and the manager. No reason they should have brought him up to sit

fancypants: What type of return is reasonable for Witt and rice? is skenes and King and Bellinger too much?

Justin Mason: that feels about right. I want a ton for an elite hitter in Witt

Guest: crazy question, but santander or grisham ros? santander has both a shoulder and hip thing going on right now

Justin Mason: Santander

Moelicious: Why is Jeff Zimmerman so bearish on Matt Shaw? Shaw was a 1st round pick who has hit very well in the minors

Justin Mason: I don’t know. I haven’t talked to Jeff about him, but personally I like these types of players that make good contact and can do a bit of everything

nick: Does chris taylor’s demotion add any anything to kims value? or does he continue to be a part time player that isnt worth rostering in 12 teamers?

Justin Mason: probably the latter

Guest: Who you prefer ROS between Jung and Kerry Carpenter?

Justin Mason: Carpenter, but really close

nick: can tyler fitzgerald produce anything close to last year? he statcast page isn’t pretty

Justin Mason: no, that was a facade

Larry Sellers: Neto or Chourio: Who has the brighter outlook this year and the next 5 years?

Justin Mason: Chourio

wmquirk: Boyd or Wacha?

Justin Mason: Wacha

matty25: Deep league 3B for the ROS: Ryan McMahon or Jake Burger?

Justin Mason: Burger

Salty: How serious do the various members of the experts league take those leagues seriously in season?  Time is valuable and clout is great, but I figure many members play in various NFBC leagues which impact the bankroll much more.  Is attention in those leagues at or near the same level as they are during draft season?

Justin Mason: I think it different person to person. For me, I take the industry leagues just as seriously because while there may not be a buy in, my name is publicly attached to them and that is more valuable to me than the money I would win in NFBC. I know not everyone feels the same way, but I can only speak for myself

Guest: Lawler got dropped in my 12-team league.  Is he an absolute must-roster immediately or should I wait and see if he starts playing more?

Justin Mason: wait in a redraft

Chell: Weathers or Henderson or Warren ROS?

Justin Mason: Weathers as long as he is healthy

MF Luder: Do you think Tanner Houck will have fantasy-relevant starts again in 2025?

Justin Mason: nope

jerry: you starting gonsolin against NYM this week?

Justin Mason: yes

oh boy: Ranger @ CO or Meyer vs. Chi

Justin Mason: Meyer

DJ: Can Finnegan keep this up? 12 team roto / keeper and I’ve been offered Neto (8th round) for Finnegan (17th). Only hesitation is this gives the #2 team potential saves in his only weak category.

Justin Mason: I don’t want to make the #2 team that much better, but in a vacuum, I would do this

Go Sox: When can we expect Mayer to be in Boston after KC was doing 1B drills

Justin Mason: I think there is a good chance he is

Vince: Sandy Alcantara… Are we cutting him in 12-teamers? I’m afraid to start him in just about any game, though he did look a little better on Saturday until it all fell apart…

Justin Mason: yes, I would drop him in 12s

Rickey: How are you feeling about Nick Lodolo? Are his strong results (and his health) sustainable? Top 30 SP? Top 40?

Justin Mason: It is all about health with Lodolo. The talent is real, but he has not been able to prove the health skill yet

Dino Spumoni: Are we giving up on William Contreras? I’m cash strapped and have him at $22 salary with a guy like Ryan Jeffers sitting there for $1…

Justin Mason: I am not giving up on him

Justin Mason: that is all the time I have. please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!