Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – May 15th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

BoSox: Tanner Houck a good speculative add this week?  He’s shown flashes, and I’m banking on him taking off sooner, rather than later.  10-team, mixed AL/NL – 5 SP/5 RP format for pitching

Justin Mason: Seems like a crowded situation in Boston already. I worry he is odd man out if/when Whitlock is back.

I Used to be Mel Clark: In a 16 team, keep forever (at no cost) league, is Hunter Brown and Cody Bellinger a fair offer for Mike Trout?

Justin Mason: I think that is a pretty light return for Trout.

Siri: In a H2H cat league that uses OBP/SLG, I should be pretty excited about McClain, right? That BB rate looks great.

Justin Mason: Yeah, he looks really interesting. I worry a little about playing time, but I think he is worth an add in that ballpark.

Colton: Grayson against LAA today or Eury Perez against WSH on Wednesday? Love the strikeout upside with Grayson, but Washington’s offense is so bad, except they don’t freaking strikeout!

Justin Mason: I am going Perez and it is not close to me.

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Thanks for the chat.  Obviously the stat line was better yesterday but did you see anything different from Pfaadt that should make us comfortable starting him @Pit this week?

Justin Mason: I haven’t watched the start yet, but I am rolling him out against Pittsburgh. They have been truly atrocious offensively this month. If you cant use him here, when can you?

Armadillofury: Are pitcher injuries going up due to guys throwing just as hard but with less rest between pitches?

Justin Mason: I think that could be a huge part of it. Also, the crackdown on sticky stuff could be adding to that. This year is absolutely brutal.

Siri: What’s wrong with Brandon Lowe?

Justin Mason: Some of it is bad BABIP luck, but a lot of it is being too aggressive and trying to jack ever pitch.

Siri: Should I be worried about Gorman’s playing time? He’s been so good, I don’t understand how they could move him to the bench.

Justin Mason: I think he will continue to play regularly but there are a lot of pieces in STL and they have to figure out how to get everyone in. With Contreras catching again, there is more time available at DH which is good for Gorman.

Mike: 1.) Pick 2 of Morel, Vargas, Seiya this week?

Justin Mason: Morel and Seiya

Hank Scorpio: 12tm 6×6 roto: I need to choose between Bregman & Miguel Vargas this week, and really beyond. Bregman has been abysmal (.512 OPS, .106 ISO in May – not that April was any better), I’m thinking he must be hurt because Statcast doesn’t show much to be optimistic about (bottom quarter in Avg EV, Max EV, HH%). I don’t think I can consider cutting yet, but boy, has it been rough

Justin Mason: Bregman for me

Mike: Drop L Allen or James Paxton!

Justin Mason: Wow. I don’t want to drop either. I guess if I do it is PAxton.

Ed: I bid 30% on Eury to replace Rasmussen… On a related note could Alex Wood be decent in a 12 teamer H2H?

Justin Mason: I bid that much on Eury Perez as well so I am hoping he is fantastic rest of the way! Wood is in a tricky spot because the Giants are using their starters so weirdly. Don’t know that you can trust him in a 12 long term.

Bjorn: What do you make of Alex Manoah’s slow start. Do you see him as a buy low candidate?

Justin Mason: At this point, there is not much in the profile that tells me there is a big turn around. I wonder if he is struggling with the pitch clock as a bigger guy. I am really worried.

Stick to Sporer-tzball: in 12 team 5×5 mixed with CI spot.  I am considering starting McLain instead of hugely disappointing Gimenez.  Good/bad idea?

Justin Mason: I don’t mind it. early The matchups are prett good for Andres Gimenez, but Matt McLain is in Coors and home versus the Yankees, so that is a pretty sweet week.

Matt: Thanks for taking the time Justin!! Roto 10-team NL only keeper salary cap league w/OBP. I got the double-whammy with the Reds moves this morning, always nice for them to happen 12 hours AFTER the FAAB period runs. Lost Friedl to the IL (we have unlimited IL), and had Barrero as the last bat on my active roster. I can activate either Tovar, Wiemer, or both. But if I do both, I’ll hit a roster crunch when Friedl comes back. (activating will change their salary escalators in future years, but I’m playing for now). Low OBP on both have me hesitant. Do you think Barrero gets some of the PT in the OF as he makes way for McLain? Who would you recommend activating?

Justin Mason: I don’t think Barrero gets any additional time. I would probably activate one of them and then drop or trade Barrero if you need to later.

Rooker of the year: Is Rooker a top 50 player going forward in most leagues or has this just been an extended heater?

Justin Mason: Definitely not a top 50 player, but this has been impressive. Still not quite bought in, but I would ride the streak for as long as it goes.

I’m Pfaadt, you know it: I dropped Pfaadt in a roto 12 teamer after his clunkers – think I’ll regret it?

Justin Mason: I think he needs more time in AAA, so as long as it is not a keeper, then no.

Jeff: I was taking victory laps on Yandy Diaz and then he gets hurt

Justin Mason: Been there unfortunately. #TJFriedl

Rick: I think LaRussa hurt Vaughn’s development but do you see anything better to come? How do you rank him long-term compared to N.Lowe, Tellez, Kirilloff, Manzardo? Thanks.

Justin Mason: I think long term he is good if he can stay healthy. I would put him about Tellez and Kirilloff.

Riley Greene: Is this my breakout or is it just some BABIP luck? 174 WRC+ so far in May.

Justin Mason: I think this is BABIP luck. .249 xBA and three total home runs

jazzpaw: 12 team, AL only 5×5 ROTO.  I have to make a decision between Jordan Diaz and Maikel Garcia, am in good position in HR and Steals.  Who would you go with?

Justin Mason: Diaz this week.

Matt W.: Hi Justin, Thanks for chatting. Mitch Keller is the man. Could he be swapped in a 15 team league for someone Devers at this point?

Justin Mason: Umm… if you can get a top 50 bat for him, I am taking that in a heartbeat.

Kate: What would you do with Daniel Bard in a 15 teamer right now?  Roto dynasty league with daily roster moves and pretty deep benches and it’s SV+H/2 instead of just saves.  With significant drop in velo, he doesn’t seem anywhere close to reclaiming the closer’s role and, even if he did, I don’t think I’d trust him.  Is he a straight drop at this point?  Honestly think I’d be better off just rostering a solid holds guy with this spot.

Justin Mason: I definitely think you can move on.

Singer in the rain: Just picked up B. Singer for his two-step this week in 12-team roto – good idea, or should he be benched?

Justin Mason: He doesn’t have a two-step I do not think. Tuesday vs SD and then a two-step next week. I think he is likely not 12-team worthy against the PAdres.

Millertime: Are you dropping the likes of Mason Miller and Lodolo or holding?

Justin Mason: I am ok dropping if you don’t have IL room. More likely to hold Lodolo since it is not an arm injury.

Scott: Jorge Mateo – is the elevator going down to becoming part-time player?

Justin Mason: Yeah, the fairy dust wore off. He is hitting .105 this month.

Josh: Your take on McLain RoS (broadly)?

Justin Mason: Has really good understanding of the strike zone, but doesn’t always make good zone contact. Enough power and speed to be interesting but no standout tool. Needs playing time to accumulate.

Byoung Ho Pork: Carnitas – #1 overall pick for burrito filling?

Justin Mason: I am an Al Pastor guy.

Josh Jung: Did that injury permanently turn him from low- to mid-20s K% to 30-ish?

Justin Mason: Swinging strike rate is 12% and he is making league average contact in the zone. I think that K rate comes down to like 25%

Kate: Any idea what to make of Spring at this point?  Plate discipline metrics look fine, but the power and BABIP are MIA.  Hard hit % way down.  I think he had an offseason procedure to clean up his elbow, maybe still not 100% healthy?  Or is this just age catching up to him?

Justin Mason: Springer? I am not super worried about him. Getting unlucky a bit in the BABIP. The max exit velo is right where it should be. He is running more which is nice. I think he heats up in the summer unless there is an injury we don’t know about.

Mugghead: 12 team H2H points league. Struggling at 1B with Tellez, Bell, and France. How would you rank them for ROS and who is the better add — Drury, or L. Wade? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Tellez, France, Bell. I am ok dropping one of them for Wade.

Jeff: 12 team Ottoneu 5×5: I’m looking to upgrade Ks without tanking my ratios. Just picked up Ober; Varland, Megill, Wells, Bradish, Smyly all available. Any season long interest in these guys, or are they simple streams against bad teams?

Justin Mason: In a 12 I think most of them can be streamed. Play the matchups.

Frenchy: Am I wrong to dream on SP J. France being a set-and-forget in a 12 teamer?

Justin Mason: Never is wrong to dream, but I think there will be blow ups because the command can be hit or miss. I have him in a bunch of spots so I am dreaming with you!

James: Who is a better hold: Ben Brown or Bobby Miller? And when do you think either’s debuts could come?

Justin Mason: Miller

Justin Mason: I think Miller is up this summer. Brown could be up in June.

Kate: Josh Bell going to get the power going at some point you think?

Justin Mason: He is hitting the ball into the ground and not making enough zone contact. These are not good signs for a power rebound.

Tyler Stephenson: 13tm roto std. Should I be looking to moving on from Stephenson? Gomes, Langeliers, Moreno, Bethancourt, Sabol, Wong, Haase all available. Any of these better ROS?

Justin Mason: I would go Montero

Rickey: Would you start Nestor vs Toronto, or Jon Gray vs Colorado this week? Nestor’s really been rough these last few starts.

Justin Mason: Gray looked really good and gets the Rockies away from Coors without CJ Cron. I am going that direction.

Colton: Needing 3B help in a H2H ESPN points league. Would you go Moncada, Jung, or JD Davis for ROS potentially? It’s an 8 man league.

Justin Mason: Jung

Pick one at SS: O. Arcia or G. Perdomo – 12 tm roto

Justin Mason: Arcia

Jim Leyland Palmer: 10tm 5×5, more appealing stream tomorrow: Miley v STL or Ortiz v Det?

Justin Mason: Ortiz

Lorenzo: If collisions were allowed at home plate, what would be the EV of a 180 lb catcher upon a barrel hit from Daniel Vogelbach?   Over/Under 80mph  Seriously though, do you trust Kimbrell in most formats, or will the regular blowups be inevitable and is Barlow the better choice?

Justin Mason: 2 points awarded for the first question! Barlow is the better choice.

Micah: Wil Myers or Dominic Fletcher for this week? OBP

Justin Mason: Myers in Colorado and home vs NYY

Kate: How much more leash does Will Brennan have before he gets sent down?

Justin Mason: I think he gets a bit more because he is getting unlucky and at least plays good defense.

Closing Time: One last call for saves, who has the best shot ROS?
Floro, Castro, W Peralta, Z Jackson, Bird, Huascar.

Justin Mason: Floro

Matt: Is Eugenio Suarez on the cut-list yet? Trying to wait for him to heat up, but it’s tough. 10-team. H2H points. Keep forever dynasty.

Justin Mason: I think it is ok to move on in a 10 if you have enough power. I do think he turns it around at some point.

Jared Kelenic: I am a top X? keeper in a dynasty / keep forever league moving forward…

Justin Mason: 50-60

Kate: You were pretty big on Singer coming into the year if I remember correctly.  What’s your read on him at this point?  A lot of the underlying metrics look similar.  Is this just a slow start and he was over his head in terms of surface stats last year?

Justin Mason: A little of both. I downplayed the two pitch mix too much and he has struggled with fastball command at points which makes him a one pitch guy then. I think he will be up and down rest of the way to be honest which is bad news for my teams.

Jason Mustin: Do you see Miguel Castro as the closer in Arizona now? Floro in Miami with Puk out?

Justin Mason: I do

Seiya it ain’t so: He’s hit the 100 AB mark and the results have been pretty meh. Brighter days ahead or is this just who he is?

Justin Mason: I think brighter days are ahead. I still believe in the talent.

vr: Sell or hold Connor Joe? The underlying numbers look pretty strong with good EVs and 100th percentile chase rate, but he can’t keep up anything close to this right?

Justin Mason: Depends on what you can sell him for. I doubt you will get a ton for him considering he is in Pittsburgh and isn’t a super sexy profile. I think I would most likely just ride it out.

Friedl Falling: I am sad he is hurt, especially an oblique. That is all.

Justin Mason: Me too!

Jim Leyland Palmer: 10tm 5×5, who is most likely to become a solid rostereable arm in this shallow format: Senga, Berrios, Ober, Logan Allen, Pfaadt?

Justin Mason: Allen

Bleepbloop: 10 team 7×7 (5×5 +QS, K/BB) Should I try to buy low on Aaron Nola right now or pay up for Gausman (can keep each thru next year only)

Justin Mason: Buy low on Nola

Al: Drafted Woodruff, Fried, and Rasmussen in my 10 team points league 🙁 Would you rank either of Eflin and Ober over May and/or Musgrove?

Justin Mason: Eflin over May for me.

Vic: Start two Sit two. 15 Teamer.  J Gray [two starts], Heaney, Eury Perez, Pfaadt,

Justin Mason: Start Gray and Eury

Kyle Manzardo: when am I getting called up?

Justin Mason: June?

Kate: JP Sears looks low key interesting, he just can’t seem to keep the ball in the park.  Think he can reign it in a bit and become useful in a 15 teamer?  Or are the HR and team issues too much to overcome?

Justin Mason: I think the combo of the team and HR issues makes him a streamer in most 15 team leagues, but with how many guys are hurt, you may end up just holding.

Beltway boy: Am I crazy to start Patrick Corbin this week?

Justin Mason: I am! He has been really good over his last five starts and this is a good two-step

Frank Grimes: Last place offense in 12tm roto with solid rotation: Would you trade your Luis Castillo, Bregman for their Machado, Verdugo?

Justin Mason: Sure

Kate: Maybe I’m missing something, but the underlying number on Lance Lynn look pretty good and it looks like he’s just getting totally unlucky.  Am I missing something here?  He seems primed for a big turnaround.

Justin Mason: I wonder if he is another guy struggling with the pitch clock as a bigger guy. I think he should turn it around, but I am a little worried about the walks and him just seemingly being gassed at times.

SamskiNYC: Hey Justin, why do ROS projections like Seiya Suzuki so much?

Justin Mason: Because he is making really good contact and the power is in there. There is a lot to like.

Traded: 2B has been a blackhole. Traded Cobb and H Ramirez for Ketel and France. How’d I do?
13tm std roto

Justin Mason: I don’t love it…

SamskiNYC: Nick Senzel…can we let ourselves believe?

Justin Mason: As long as your belief is short lived like his health typically is.

Pedro: Cut one in an AL only 5×5:  Burger, Moncada, Laureano, Siri, or Maikhal Garcia.  Thanks Justin

Justin Mason: Can you trade one? I guess it is Garcia

SamskiNYC: You using Jared Shuster in a two-step this week? I am, so, like, am I stupid?

Justin Mason: Sometimes, you have no choice. Would rather have him as an option as opposed to a league where I am choosing between Singer, Flaherty and Kopech lol

Justin Mason: I have a ton of questions left so I am going to speed round through a bunch to try and get to as many as I can.

Kevin: 5×5 roto QS league. 200 start limit so we have to make every start count. You starting Hunter Greene @COL today if you’re in my shoes?

Justin Mason: No

Rickey H.: Roto league, keep three players only but can keep them forever with K/9 and QS (instead of Total Ks & Wins) and OPS (instead of BA). Would you trade Julio Rod & Cole for Strider & Witt Jr? Seems crazy to trade JRod but already have Acuna as a keeper and Strider & Witt also figure to be longterm keepers. Thanks!

Justin Mason: No

Trade candidates: Vidal Brujan, Jonathan Aranda, Ruben Cardenas all seem blocked at mlb level. do you think the rays will trade one of them (and who) for mlb pitching help or will that most likely be a major league player like mejia or margiot?

Justin Mason: I would think they should make some deals like that to replenish their rotation at some point’

Madness: You had Scherzer #2 SP preseason. Where would he be in a rerank today going forward? Still top 10?

Justin Mason: He is outside the top 15 at this point. I had dropped him prior to drafts in March but I would continue to drop him now

Madness: How should we view Varland going forward?

Justin Mason: As a guy that has interesting skills that he can’t fully unlock because he gives up too many home runs.

Dave: Right now I’m rolling out a combo of Jeff McNeil and Chris Taylor at 2B in a 12 team mixed roto… Polanco, Cronenworth, McMahon, and CJ Abrams are all out on the wire.  Are any of those guys more than swapping out deck chairs on the Titanic?

Justin Mason: Grab Polanco

Jake: Thoughts on holding or dropping conforto in a 16 team keeper league

Justin Mason: Hold

Braves Fan: 12 team 5×5 category league, I have Pena, Gunnar, and McLain at SS currently, with Hoerner on the IL. When Nico comes back, would you drop one of those SS for him? Or drop Polano or Nolan Gorman? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Polanco

Jake: Thoughts on Ke’Bryan has the ROS

Justin Mason: I think he will be fine. xBA is good and he is hitting the ball hard. Turn around is coming.

Chaz: Is Paxton worth a pickup in a 10 team mixed league?  I’d be dropping Detmers.

Justin Mason: Yes

Jake: Is a Gunnar Henderson break out around the corner?

Justin Mason: I don’t think it is.

Bleepbloop: Is there something in the water in Minnesota? All their pitchers are going off this year. Are you selling high or holding or buying high?

Justin Mason: Holding

Chaz: When is a good time to pick up and stash Andrew Abbott?  Surprised he didn’t get the call with Lodolo hitting the IL

Justin Mason: I think so. Could be up soon.

PJH: Tim Anderson was dropped in my points league. What are your thoughts on him for remainder of the season?

Justin Mason: I think he will be fine. I would swoop

Jake: Got offered Gunnar Henderson straight up for Matt Mervis, thats a no brainer right? 16 team keeper league

Justin Mason: Yes

Jack: How scared should I be about Raisel Iglesias receiving the boot? Everything looks to be trending in the wrong direction

Justin Mason: I think he is still hurt. I am stashing Minter

Guest: How much do you believe in Pratto?

Justin Mason: I have always been a fan. Made some nice improvements. I believe.

James: Moved on from Sandoval in both 12-team H2H 5×5 and 12-team H2H points in favor Heaney and Varland respectively, good moves or no bueno?

Justin Mason: Lateral

too rash?: Too rash?  finally cut bait on Tyler O’Neill in a 12 tm…STL situation sapping value from evryone involved and roster spot was too valuable to wait

Justin Mason: Not too rash

Chip: Speaking of Manoah, is he cuttable in an Ottoneu league? I don’t NEED the cap space, but I’m sure I can get 113 ERA- and 6.3 xERA much cheaper than my cost for him.

Justin Mason: I have a hard time cutting, but I am worried.

Madness: Burrito fillings: al pastor FTW

Justin Mason: LETS GO!!!

Ace: Please rank for ROS: Detmers, Bibee, Lynn, and Grod

Justin Mason: Bibee, Lynn, Rodriguez, Detmers

seth: are you holding heaney in shallow leagues assuming he stays healthy? or do you view him as a higher end streamer?

Justin Mason: team streamer

Tati: Hold or drop Mateo in 12 tm mixed roto?

Justin Mason: Drop

seth: re: manoah. paul mentioned him potentially being a cut after these next two starts if things dont turn around. are you in agreement? replacements such as german, detmers, paxton, taillon, etc

Justin Mason: Man, cutting him is so hard, but it might be the right move

Jack: Also curious about E-Rods value in a 12-teamer? He’s hard to trust but the results speak for themselves. Where do you rank him ROS?

Justin Mason: I think he is a top 30-40 starter right now.

Rico: Who gets the most saves ROS out of the Phillies BP?

Justin Mason: Kimbrel

seth: do you see confortos recent run as a hot streak or something worth investing in? specifically in a h2h ops league

Justin Mason: I would invest because he is going to play a lot.

Chris Taylor: Can I be a thing again….?

Jimmy5: Jake Bauer worth waiver pickup and play this week?  Will he continue to hit at top of order?  Is playing time an issue?

Justin Mason: Probably not.

Fresh Basil: Also dumpster diving for Saves. Leiter or Z. Jackson?

Justin Mason: Leiter

Siri: Will Liam Hendricks be Liam Hendricks? In a sv+hlds league, rank Hendricks, Jason Adams, Chafin, and Brusdar Gratterol

Justin Mason: So hard to know. He definitely could be. I think that is the right order.

Maris9: Jarren Duran or Brent Rooker ROS?

Justin Mason: Durran

Conor: Is it worth holding onto Mervis still in a 12 team roto? The swing and miss and lack of power are worrying me.

Justin Mason: Yeah, don’t cut yet. It has been a week.

JWR: How many leagues do you compete in?  At what point do you find that you are in too many leagues?  I find it hard to keep all of my leagues straight and I am in only three leagues.

Justin Mason: I am in too many for sure. But it really helps me prep and get ready for the season. It also is important for my work. If I wasn’t writing/podcasting, I’d play in 3-4.

Struggling Mets: In all formats, is this a time to buy low on guys like S. Marte, McNeil, Lindor, even Alonso now, or steer clear from this offense?

Justin Mason: I think it is time to buy low

Maris9: Drafted a young guy a couple of years ago. Great potential, power speed. The dude can’t seem to sustain consistency. Thoughts on Jazz Chisolm?

Justin Mason: Dude can’t stay healthy

Fresh Basil: Who would thought my ratios would’ve blown up with a Nestor and McClanahan

Justin Mason: Been that kind of year

Taj Bradley: Am I coming back up this week to fill Rasmussen’s spot?

Justin Mason: Doesn’t seem like it

Micah: Sears or France ROS? (QS league)

Justin Mason: France

Cody Buck: How long until we see CES get the call? Let the youth play in Cincy!

Justin Mason: Hopefully soon. I stashed him in a couple of leagues.

Chone of the Dead: Hey Justin! 10-teamer points league. Seems like the regression fairies have come for Graham Ashcraft. He’s in Coors this week, where I wouldn’t start him regardless, but is he just a streamer at this point and OK to drop? Thank as always!

Justin Mason: Sure

Madness: Jose Miranda has really disappointed so far, especially after such a good spring. How much has your tong-term outlook changed on him?

Justin Mason: I don’t think the long term outlook has changed, but I wasn’t as high on him as others.

Matt: Is it time to give up on Tyler Anderson? Even in a 14 teamer?

Justin Mason: Not yet, but soon if things don’t turn around.

Justin Mason: Sorry, have to wrap up. please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!