Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – May 12, 2025

Justin Mason: I will begin at the top of hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

M: Sell high on Mullins? Buy low on Alcantara?

Justin Mason: I would sell high on Mullins depending on what I got back. I would not buy low on Alcantara outside of a keeper/dynasty situation. I just don’t trust the command and control returning from Tommy John

Insert Witty Name Here: McLain, JP Crawford and Kristian Campbell, who rides the pine in an OBP league?

Justin Mason: Campbell

Insert Witty Name Here: Will Kershaw get many QS’s when he returns?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he will get many. I expect the Dodgers to be very careful with his innings and not let him pitch into the sixth much, especially right away.

bdubs: Need Saves in Roto 12T Mixed (it’s rough out there)

Currently own Bednar, Megill, Shelby Miller
Rank These On Waiver Wire: Hodge, Tonoco, Vest

So…drop any for any?

Justin Mason: I would drop Miller for Hodge

NPB: We only got repeatedly no-hit by Sasaki Roki to trick you stupid Americans into thinking he was good. He’s actually our WORST pitcher! Can’t believe you idiots actually fell for it!

Justin Mason: I think we overlooked some red flags on Sasaki as an industry because we were enthralled by his youth and upside. The upside is still there and I think he will be great long term, but it will take some development.

Bob: Do you see any upside for Varsho due to increased bat speed?

Justin Mason: Until he becomes a better in-zone hitter, bat speed won’t mean as much as I would like it too. sub-80% Z-Contact won’t work consistently as a hitter.

Lowe: Someone in my 12t h2h w/obp dropped Brandon Lowe.  Worth picking up in place of Hoerner, Busch, or Manzardo?

Justin Mason: I could make that move for Manzardo

KC Pain: I know a ton of questions incoming on Lawler. I noticed they want to get him and Pavin in the lineup per the quote. Any of that effect Josh Naylor or is it likely all across the diamond and Pavin in OF?

Justin Mason: I would assume it’s Pavin in the outfield. Hard to know what they are going to do, but they aren’t bringing Lawlar up to sit

TBD: 12 T 5×5 H2H keeper would you rather: H Ramos or E Carter?

Justin Mason: Ramos

BillyB: Is it time to panic on Christian Walker as my 12T 1B?

Justin Mason: I don’t think so. The underlying numbers are a little down, but nothing alarming. Probably just adjusting to a new park/team. I think he will be fine

KC Pain: 18 teamer dynasty 6×6. Skenes owner  wants my Naylor, Bibee, Doyle, Josue de Paula, and Painter. Too much right? Half that would be reasonable? Naylor or Doyle, Bibee, Josue De Paula or Painter?  Having a tough time with Skenes value as he has been very good but not overpoweringly elite.

Justin Mason: I feel like this is a bit much, but to get an a elite talent at such a young age in dynasty means you often have to overpay.

George: Drafted Luis Garcia Jr for a possible 20/20 with decent average. Should I hold or is it time to cut bait?

Justin Mason: Hold

Joe14: Maybe time to get back on Gavin Williams ? Deep roto

Justin Mason: Williams is going to be a pitcher that is hard to predict until he can better control his stuff. There are going to be amazing starts followed by duds. In a deep roto, it’s hard to find his type of stuff on the wire, but I am not a buyer in terms of a breakout coming.

Dc: Thoughts on alcantara? Velocity is there but it’s really hard to trust him, even against weaker offenses.

Justin Mason: Velocity is always the first thing to come back after TJ. Command and control are the last. He should get better as the season goes on, but I don’t know that he will be the guy we saw pre-surgery until 2026.

Guest: is it just me or are Barger’s underlyings kinda nuts?

Justin Mason: Wow! That is nuts. Hitting the ball extremely hard. Making above average z-contact. xBA is .30. Pulling the ball a ton (maybe too much). I think this might be someone to stash in deeper formats or at least watch list. Great catch here!

Justin Mason: super small sample, but intriguing

Joe14: Still holding Tylor Megill ? at NYY & BOS next. Deep mixed roto

Justin Mason: I am. Skills are great

Cheese: Start this week…  Leiter with the 2-step vs Col and Hou, or R Ray with 1 start vs Ariz?

Justin Mason: Leiter for me. Take that COL start and pray he doesn’t get murdered by a beat up Astros team

Bob: Campbell has slow down especially since the injury, would you start looking to move on in a 12 team league?

Justin Mason: depends on my options, but I think I might

B. Rice: My league dropped its pitcher limit so I’m currently running 12 starters and Jose Alvarado while having empty spots at C/OF/UTIL. Is this strategy completely insane? Should I drop one of my lower end pitchers (sandy, Reese Olson, Rasmussen) for a Ramos or Nimmo?

Justin Mason: Is this a points league? how are you able to stay viable offensively? If it’s points and it’s working, I think it might work, but you’d have to stay healthy.

Laura: Bobby Witt Jr HR production is low so far. Why? Ditto for Jordan Zlvarez. Thanks

Justin Mason: I think Witt will be fine. HR/FB rate is down and should come up as the summer heats up in Kansas City. He started a little slow power wise last year too. Alvarez is dealing with a hand issue, but underlying numbers seem fine too. So when he is back healthy, he should be fine.

KC Pain: 18 teamer dynasty 6×6 where we play LF/CF/RF as a Luis Robert and someone who doesnt watch many of his games (for good reason), do you think he is a bonafide CF even if traded or is he more of a RF/LF guy?

Justin Mason: Honestly I don’t play in leagues where the outfield is broken up so it’s hard for me to know off the top of my head how those breakdown. From a straight skills prospective, I still worry about the contact skills. They’re the worst of his career and while the power is still there, the average isn’t going to rebound much until he fixes that.

High5Ghost: Casparius, Bryce Miller, Tylor Megill & Alcantara…..acknowledging the time to draft Sandy was not this year, are any of these guys a hold right now in 12 team mixed?

Justin Mason: Miller and Megill are. Alcantara isn’t. Casparius is questionable until we figure out what the Dodgers are really going to do with him

Winker, Taylor, Soler, Spy: 12T 5×5 OBP redraft. Better stash all else equal: Roman Anthony or Bubba Chandler?

Justin Mason: Anthony

Guest: What are your thoughts on Corbin Burnes rough start?

Justin Mason: I am a bit worried especially when there was a minor shoulder issue recently. The stuff is just not what it once was and I do worry this is wear and tear catching up with him. I still think he will be good, just maybe not great

Misnerly: 15 team 5×5 mixed roto – Josh Bell and Jake Fraley dropped over weekend.  Are either improvement over Rowdy Tellez and/or Kameron Misner?  Thanks

Justin Mason: Probably not. Maybe Fraley when he returns from the IL, but he’s gone for at least another week

Cheese: Looking like Seager may miss some time again?  Please rank these replacements…  Josh Smith, G Arias, Dylan Moore, and Schneeman.

Justin Mason: Smith, Moore, Schneeman, Arias

JP: 12 team 5×5, rank Colt Keith, Augustin Ramirez, Conor Norby,  Mason Wynn, Ryan Mcmahon

Justin Mason: Keith, Ramirez, McMahon, ,Wynn, Norby

Laura: What do you expect from Bubba Chandler once he gets the call?

Justin Mason: I think he can be an SP2 right away. The stuff is fantastic and the command is ready. Will come down to his control. We know there won’t be a ton of wins in Pittsburgh, but it’s a great park to help protect him

Max Meyer: Am i going to be okay?

Justin Mason: Yes, you are fine

Justin Mason: The last start was a usage mistake by the Marlins. Why they brought him out for the seventh inning, I don’t understand. If they pull him after six innings, he only gives up two runs.

ROS pitching: Trying to figure out which pitchers could be more than streamable: Wacha, Rea, or Abbott worth hanging on to?

Justin Mason: Wacha

Justin Mason: Rea is a great stream this week because of the matchups, but then you can cut

Justin Mason: Abbott is just a bad pitcher running well

Lucas: What is going on with Marsh? I didn’t necessarily have high expectations but I thought he would be at least serviceable

Justin Mason: Getting unlucky in the BABIP right now and that should turn around, but the upside we thought was there as a prospect has just never come to fruition.

JY: Hi, 14 tm redraft leagiue, 6×6 h2h, which combo do you like best ROS: Albies & Bassit or L. Garcia & Bubic

Justin Mason: Bubic side

dannyrock: Ryan McMahon or Max Muncy LA at 3B ROS?

Justin Mason: Muncy

Tanner: Start Seager, Kristian Campbell, or Perdomo this week? Seager has a juicy schedule, but might not play every game.

Justin Mason: If Seager is out of the lineup today, I probably go with Campbell

JT: Rank the following 1B in a redraft h2h league: Busch, Steer, Hoskins or Manzardo

Justin Mason: Hoskins, Busch, Steer, Manzardo

Concerned: At what point should we think about dropping these slow starters. Do you see any of them rebounding to star/useful levels? India, Correa, Soler, Ward, Houck, Taj (12T, H2H, Ottoneu Points League)

Justin Mason: I think now is the time to move on from any of these guys. You don’t need to wait on the middling guys you didn’t draft highly in a 12

Datt Mamon: Due to pitching disasters in April — both SP and RP — I began a rebuild and made the following deals. DeGrom for Walcott/Sproat/DeLauter; D. Williams/Langaliers for R. Anthony and J. Soriano; and Clase/M. Clark for C. Smith/T. White/Luzardo. Thoughts?

Justin Mason: I love the commitment to the rebuild. You got some great players for the future. Love this.

Greene and naive: 5×5 12 team: 2nd place guy offering Hunter Brown and Riley Greene to first place guy’s Corbin Carroll. Crazy?

Justin Mason: Not crazy, but I don’t love trading with the first place team when I am in second

Guest: Hi Justin,
Looking for two starts in a QS league this week (7pts – QS and 3 pts – W)

Options:
Grant Holmes – Nats
Dustin May – LAA
Lorenzen – KC
G Williams – Mil
E Rodriguez – SF
Verlander – Athletics
Roupp – Athletics
Gusto – KC

Any of these you would roster, rather than just stream week to week?

Justin Mason: May and Roupp

Bub: Any closers in waiting worth keeping a close eye on or holding in the event of opportunity opening up?

Justin Mason: Hodge is the guy I am trying to grab anywhere he is available

Lowetide: Verlander and Schmidt 2-start or Burnes v COL plus Horton v CWS? hth

Justin Mason: Burnes side

JB: Is Junior Caminero a drop candidate in a 10 team OBP keeper league?  Have Jorge Polanco starting over him currently.

Justin Mason: I am not dropping him yet

Razor shines: Buy low candidate ROS: Alcantara, or Bryce Miller?

Justin Mason: Miller

Baseball Fan Forever: Do you think several managers will change this year? Two have already changed, the Pirates’ and Colorado’s?

Justin Mason: It has the feeling of a blood bath type of year. Definitely think we could see a lot of managers fired this year

Cheese: No way Yankees can reduce B Rice ABs once Stanton comes back right?

Justin Mason: I really hope not

JT: Ranks the following SP ROS: Bubic, Bassit, Roki & Roupp

Justin Mason: Bubic, Bassitt, Roupp, Sasaki

earl weaver: In a 16 team pts. keeper leaguer, are Norby and Tristan Casas worth keeping?  Do have Soderstrom and Naylor as 1B/CI types as one of my 12 kprs.  It’s unlikely that Aranda will be 2B eligible next year.

Justin Mason: Probably not. I have never been a norby guy and that injury to Casas will take a ton of time to come back from

Cheese: Is Stanton a buy now and stash for when he returns in a few weeks?

Justin Mason: probably not

Phillies Closing Situation: Romano has gotten 2 out of the last 3 saves for them and has thrown 5 straight scoreless innings. Is he officially back in the closer committee mix with Alvarado? 10-15 saves the rest of the year?

Justin Mason: It’s a committee. They will play matchups in Philly

Guest: Matt McLain – buy low in 12 team mixed, or waiver wire fodder?

Justin Mason: Buy low

dannybee: Eury Perez worth stashing rn?

Justin Mason: Not in a redraft

Heliot Ramos: His hot streak for real? Should I sell high and shoot for a Cristopher Sanchez type 1 for 1 trade?

Justin Mason: If I could get Sanchez or a pitcher like that for him I would, but I think there is some viability here and I don’t think you have to sell high

Razor shines: 18 team league H2H obp. I lost Casas and CES. Options vaughn, Tellez,  Elko,  Dezenzo. What’s the best of the worst here?

Justin Mason: Take the gamble on Elko

Aman: 12 Team Roto – 3B: Josh Smith, Wagaman or Javy

Justin Mason: Smith

Knick knack: Start Knack vs ATH tomorrow?

Justin Mason: nah

Wild Wes: Is Wesneski a worthy IL stash or cut bait?

Justin Mason: cut bait

Nuke L-A-Lush: India or Horwitz ROS?

Justin Mason: Horwitz

Morel or Less L?: On a related note, is it past time to sell Morel? His projections remain solid but the pt is trending down…

Justin Mason: yes. Sell right now

In vest ed: AL obp league: will vest or pasquatch? Saves are very tight, but I also believe in the better Vinnie projections…

Justin Mason: Go get your saves

Guestxp: What happened to Max Meyer?

Justin Mason: Just some bad luck and poor usage. No need to worry yet

Cannon: You soundly dismissed Jonathan Cannon on the 2start pod, but he’s on a qs run and has decent pitch metric numbers, even if the predictive stats are ugly. Am I crazy for holding out hope?

Justin Mason: Crazy? No, but I am not seeing a ton that enthuses me especially on a bad White Sox team. I will try and sit down to watch his starts this week, but this is just a innings eater on a bad team

Nuke L-A-Lush: Better stash in a Keeper league, L. Henderson or J. Misiorowski?

Justin Mason: Misiorowski

Tomoyuki CYgano: Where do you figure Oneil Cruz’s final stat line actually lands for 2025? my gut thinks it’s something like 25/40/.240 but I’m worried it’ll be closer to 22/35/.215

Justin Mason: I think it will be closer to the .240 with the way he is hitting. There is risk it is the .215, but he just crushes the ball which makes up for the poor contact %s

Guest: How unlucky is Taylor Ward? Seems like there will be positive BABIP regression to career norms. THE BATX has him as a $20 player ROS. Looking to buy low or pickup where available now?

Justin Mason: .190 BABIP doing a lot of the damage. Making good in zone contact but he is trying to lift too much leading to fly outs. Needs to level out the swing a bit and he could take offf

JB: Any thoughts on Marcell Ozuna’s slow start, his swing% is only 37.1%?  I picked up George Springer for some insurance, Springer currently at career highs in Walk Rate, LA EV, Barrel% and Hardhit%.

Justin Mason: He is just being a bit too passive at the plate. I think he will be fine once he turns up the aggressiveness in the zone.

Why not Zoidberg: Start Lawlar right away? Otherwise it’s probably Crews or Campbell for me.

Justin Mason: yes

earl weaver is running this year: Would you trade Bryce Miller for Alcantara in a keeper pts. league?  Is it unreasonable to think that Alcantara might be traded before the deadline?

Justin Mason: I would not

JY: Can Albies get back to hitting like his can, some of underlying #’s look off by a lot

Justin Mason: I think he can, but I am not betting on it. This feels like a modern day BJ Upton that will drive you crazy with hot and cold streaks.

Fant’sy Feast: I’ve been offered Gunnar for my Julio. Told him I’d like a little extra back so he added Jack Leiter. Does that sound about right or should I push for Boyd or Rasmussen? He has decent SP depth, so other options include Gavin Williams or Tylor Megill. Schwelly probably too much to ask

Fant’sy Feast: For my question: 5×5 roto 12-tm if it helps

Justin Mason: I think that is fair. I actually have Gunnar as more valuable than Julio

Laura: When will the Red Sox call up Anthony?Your crystal ball working?

Justin Mason: I think he is up before the end of the month

Horton Hears a Who: Thoughts on Cade Horton?

Justin Mason: Really good stuff. Can struggle with control. Command has been spotty at times and because he allows so many flyballs he could have a homer issue. Lots of risk, but the reward could be huge as well

Royce Lewis: What does Royce get first, a home run or another soft tissue injury?

Justin Mason: Homer followed by the injury

Guest: Hey, Justin! 12tm H2H categories league – how much longer do we need to hold Willy Adames? Been playing Jeremy Pena and honestly he’s been pretty steady

Justin Mason: I think Adames will be fine in the long term, but he won’t be as good as we saw in Milwaukee because of the massive downgrade in park and team.

JY: Fill in for each: (Meyer/Bubic/Roki/Bassit) is a top ___ pitcher in league at end of season

Justin Mason: Meyer: 40
Bubic: 30
Roki: 70
Bassitt: 40

On the Wire: Rank these available SP options in a 10T roto league please? Meyer, Giolito, May, Jobe, Leiter, Canning. And would you cut Roupp for any of them?

Justin Mason: May, Giolito, Leiter, Meter, Canning, Jobe. Cut Jobe for Roupp

Matt: Did I cut bait on Matt McLain too early? Cut him last week

Justin Mason: yes you did

Liberatore: He was mentioned on the pod, specifically his control. Do you actually think that’s sustainable? Seems like if or when that control fades, he’ll turn back into 2022 Liberatore.

Justin Mason: I think this is sustainable. Maybe he comes back down to earth some, but there is a real change in the attack and he is showing the best control of his career.

On Hodge: Is it worth making a marginal move like Jose Alvarado for Hodge? We do SVHLD.

Justin Mason: probably not in SV/H

Matt: You starting Schmidt against SEA in ottoneu today?

Justin Mason: Nah

High5Ghost: What are your expectations for Ryan Weathers this year?

Justin Mason: I don’t have high expectations considering the injury profile right now. Good on a per inning basis but not much more than that long term

Kevin: Are you selling high on Soderstrom? I desperately need saves and am considering dealing him for Munoz…

Justin Mason: I am ok doing that if you need to the sves

Paddy: Please rank: Bibee, Pivetta, Wacha, G Homes

Justin Mason: Pivetta, Bibee, Wacha, Holmes

Tuck: NEED a 1B, going to pick up Hoskins from ww, who do i drop (14 tm redraft 6×6 h2h) Steer (my current 1B but has OF eligibility) or 1 of my 2B combo Albies/Garcia or 1 my 3B combo Caminero/Lewis

Justin Mason: drop steer

Gary: Do you think Jordan Lawler is here to stay this time and what role will he play

Justin Mason: I think he will play every day as long as he is up. No reason to give him part time PAs. I think they move Perdomo around and Smith loses time

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Is Baty a thing now?

Justin Mason: Probably not long term, but I am riding the hot streak

Joe: What is up with Lawrence Butler? Do you see him catching fire anytime soon

Justin Mason: I am a bit worried here. The underlying contact growth we saw last year has regressed. He is trying to lift too much. I am not dropping or trading him, but there is concern here.

Justin Mason: Have to wrap up.

Justin Mason: please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!