Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – March 9, 2026

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Dave W: What do you think realistic results are for Murakami and Imai?  Do you think either becomes all-star caliber players?

Justin Mason: I have a hard time seeing Murakami becoming an allstar. There just seems to be a lot of swing and miss. I do think he can hit 30 homers, but I think it will come at the expense of his batting average.

Imai is a bit different. I don’t know if he is amazing out of the gate, but he has a full arsenal and good command. Has looked good so far in spring, so I am more in on him as a #2 or #3 for fantasy.

Kareem: JJ Wetherholt has to become an everyday player from the start of the season, right?  Too much potential impact.

Justin Mason: yeah, I think he is making this team and playing every day.

Honkus Wagner: Please help me decide my final keeper. Spencer Schwellenbach (24th round) Addison Barger (26th round) Cade Horton (26th round)

Justin Mason: Barger

Matt McLain: I know we don’t read too much into spring, but am I back?

Justin Mason: I think he is. Maybe not back all the way to 2023 levels but he is better than he showed last season.

Out with a Bulging Disk: Is Konnor Griffin a no doubt keeper in a keep forever league?  10 tm keep 6 with no penalty.

Justin Mason: absolutely

BMK: I joined my first Auction league. 1) any general advice? 2) when setting auction values with the auction calculator, should i specifically set the budget to 70% hitters and 30% hitters or should I learn there true value and just be careful in the draft? What am getting wrong? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Have good values. run your favorite projections through auction software. I use Smart Fantasy Baseball. I tend to do somewhere between 65-70% hitters depending on the room I am in. NFBC is closer to 65% while traditional home leagues are closer to 70%. Be patient. People who stay disciplined win in auction leagues. if prices are too expensive early, that means more deals in the middle. The shallower the league, the more aggressive you should be on the top end talent.

Mark: Drew Rasmussen is a must keep at $6 over Addison Barger at same price in a 14-team obp mixed league where basically all aces are already kept? Right?

Justin Mason: I think so.

Matt: Grade my trade (12 tm roto dynasty; OBP/TB): my $20 Trea Turner, $3 Xavier Edwards and minor league draft pick 3.06 for $18 Bregman & $7 CJ Abrams. I had Perdomo already, so Abrams is upside move and I needed a 3B

Justin Mason: C+

Xtopher: Is Luke Keaschall for real, or is this another Edouard Julien level mirage from a Twins 2b?

Justin Mason: I think he’s better than Julien, but I am also not as in on Keaschall as others. He profiles to me like an accumulator on a bad team. Could he be Jeremy Pena like, I think so, but I don’t see the massive upside that others do.

Dynasty first: Hey! So I have my dynasty inaugural draft tonight… please rank these players (I have the 8th pick) 1) Elly De La Cruz 2) Corbin Carroll 3) Junior Caminero 4) Julio Rodriguez 5) Fernando Tatis Jr 6) Nick Kurtz 7) Vlad Guerrero Jr

Justin Mason: Carroll, Caminero, Elly, Julio, Vlad, Tatis, Kurtz

Honkus Wagner: in 5 years who will be the better in Justin Mason’s mind: Konnor Griffin or Kevin McGonigle

Justin Mason: Griffin and not close

Keeper Q: 12-team 5×5 roto league with an auction draft, trying to decide between my last keeper at $6: McLean or Sheehan. Who ya got?

Justin Mason: McLean and not close

Bad Halo Player: I sat next to a wildly knowledgeable older woman at a Bucs game last summer.  Is there any chance Justin Mason is her ghost writing pseudonym?  And how should we value Konnor Griffin in redraft?

Justin Mason: I am probably not drafting Griffin in redraft leagues unless I am in a room where he is going outside of the top 150 and I can stash him. That could change if we hear he is making the team, but I don’t see that happening.

MilesG: 12-teamer mixed-league standard Roto, trying to set my five keepers.  I’ve had Freddy Freeman since I took over this team years ago, but is it time to throw him back into the pool?

MilesG: Sorry, didn’t realize “enter” would send rather than line-break.  Here’s my keeper candidates:  Juan Soto, Jackson Chourio, Cal Raleigh, Riley Greene, the aforementioned Freddie Freeman, Randy Arozarena, Jeremy Pena, Christopher Sanchez, Jacob Misiorowski

Justin Mason: I would keep Sanchez over Freeman.

Frank: I have the third pick in my dynasty draft… should I take Skenes or Juan Soto?

Justin Mason: Soto

Mango journey: How high would u take Judge in a dynasty draft? Ahead of Nick Kurtz?

Justin Mason: so this comes down to strategy that you want to employ. I am a win-now guy. I would take Judge all day, but that’s because I don’t typically play for the future.

WillieAdames: What’s your projection for him this year?

Justin Mason: 30/10 with a .235

John: Could you please rank these catchers for a points league where ABs are -1 points, R and RBI are 2, H are 4, SB are 5 and HR are 6? Rutschman, Alvarez, Diaz, Moreno, Jensen, Ballesteros

Justin Mason: Diaz, Rutschman, Alvarez, Moreno, Ballesteros, Jensen.

Acuña Matata: Hi Justin, thanks for doing these especially as draft season kicks into high gear. I’m in a 10 team H2H Keeper Cats league (with way too many hitting and pitching cats but I digress). My keepers are Acuña (1st round), Soto (11th round), Vlad Jr (10th round), Turner (4th round), Harper(5th round), Raleigh(8th round), Michael Harris (21st round), and Chris Sanchez (13th round). Who would you go with in the 2nd round (thinking pitcher if either Yamamoto or Gilbert is available) or just going best available hitter. Thoughts?

Justin Mason: Yamamoto

PlanBC&D: Who are the last / latest names you are comfortable rolling with at 2B, SS & 3B in a 14 team league?

Justin Mason: Brett Baty, Colt Keith, Nasim Nunez

Justin Mason: Muncy

Claire Simmons: Should I wait to start a keeper league until after a new CBA is signed? Kind of awkward to play a season and then take next season off then try to come back and remember everything, right?

Justin Mason: I could understand waiting because I do think we lose games next year, but I would just deal with that when it happens and enjoy playing this season.

Thank You: With your great visions to be able to see the Profar suspension in advance. Can you enlighten us on the better fantasy option: BOS SP Connelly Early and Payton Tolle?

Justin Mason: Early

I Need Saving: I heard you (slightly) denigrate Bednar and Chapman on the pod yesterday. Are they even for you or does one have an edge?

Justin Mason: I have Bednar slightly above, but I could see myself drafting either

Benjamin: What do I do with Jasson Dominguez? Try to trade him? Or keep him? I still think he’s gonna be good if the Yankees ever give him consistent playing time

Justin Mason: I think you have to just hold and hope

Steve E: Re Konnor Griffin: Not to be a $@# about it, but the last time the fantasy and rankings experts were salivating so unanimously about a prospect was when they gave a 65 grade to Roki Sasaki. Tread carefully, friends.

Justin Mason: Prospects are suspect until proven otherwise. However, Griffin is a special talent. Roki might be too at some point, but he clearly wasnt ready.

Benge It Like Beckham: Carson Benge or Ramon Laureano as OF5 in a 12-team roto league?

Justin Mason: Benge

GT: You can never have enough pitching, how do you grade the following staff in a 14tm h2h where pitching categories are; W, ERA, WHIP, K, QS & SV/HLD -> P. Skenes, E. Perez, M. King, N. Lodolo, M. Gore, A. Munoz & L. Weaver with G. Cole and H. Greene on IL

Justin Mason: I like it for the most part. A little worried on your injured guys and King, but it’s solid.

Cold Turkey Stearnes: 30 tm points dynasty keep forever (as long as you like)

Bradish or Cease?

Justin Mason: Bradish

Daro: Who do you prefer this year at 3b: Noelvi or Bohm?

Justin Mason: Neither? I guess Noelvi if I had to choose.

Salty: You’d probably prefer many other options for saves, but to start the year, would you rather draft Br Abreu or Kirby?

Justin Mason: Kirby

Kevin: Final keeper in a keep forever 5X5 12 teamer: Soderstrom or Seager?

Justin Mason: Seager

Hunter Becomes Hunted: Is Hunter Greene worth drafting in leagues with an IL spot or would you be totally out on him?

Justin Mason: if you can get him super cheap and stash, I dont mind it, but I wouldnt pay much

Thank You: Oh great visionary Masondamus. What does the future hold for STL closer situation? I’m leaning Romero over O’Brien. What visions do you see in your crystal cigarette?

Justin Mason: I have O’Brien above Jojo Romero, but I have been drafting both and seeing what happens.

Salty: I as a Mets fan and you as a Giants fan, this guy isn’t super fantasy relevant, but do you think Wilmer Flores latches on with someone, or is this the end of the line?  He’s been holding out for a major league contract, but it sounds like it’s been silent on that front.

Justin Mason: I think he signs a minor league deal somewhere

Barry Jones: Keeper league pick 2: — Jackson Chourio, Elly or Junior Caminero?

Justin Mason: Elly and Caminero

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Thanks as always for your chats.     Luisangel Acuna…small sample size ST hero.  Underlying stats look good and Sox are committed to him. See anything you like?

Justin Mason: I know he is hot in spring, but I dont see a ton here. The statcast has been amazing so far in spring, but his underlying contact skills are still bad. I also don’t see a regular path to playing time.

Jon: Rank these OF options in a 12-team roto OBP league please? Langford, Arozarena, Buxton, Yelich, Bellinger, Springer, Duran

Justin Mason: Langford, Duran, Springer, Bellinger, Arozarena, Yelich, Buxton.

Alex W: 14 team H2H points, need help on some keepers. In win now mode, just won championship last season and trying to repeat. Keep 3 of Salvy Perez, Jakob Marsee, Brandon Nimmo, Zac Gallen, Carlos Rodon, Shane Bieber, and Aaron Nola. I already have Raleigh and Goodman at catcher and utility, but league has extra utility slots for Perez to play at.

Justin Mason: You need to trade a catcher or two lol

Justin Mason: Perez, Marsee, and Nimmo

JT: 14 tm h2h, who to go with at 2B, G. Torres or M. McLain where offensive categories are: OBP, HR, TB, RBI, R & SB

Justin Mason: McLain

Guest: Hi! Jason 12-tm, H2H, cat., w OBP replacing BA, 9 hitters incld. DH, 6 bench slots, daily moves, auction draft … Need to fill all my OFF slots except DH (have $62 2-way Ohtani) and 3rd ($3 Muncy). Only have $$ for one $30+ hitter. Rank Tucker, Carrol, Tatis, Gunnar for 5-cat anchor (not incld. JRam because of Muncy)? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Tucker, Carrol, Tatis, Gunnar

Guest: I’ve got Connor Norby at $10 in an NL-only keeper league with 5×5 categories. There’s such a dearth of talent at 3B, should I keep him and hope he plays like he did in 2024? Gracias!

Justin Mason: I probably wouldnt

Mika: Do you think Jake Burger returns to form and injuries were to blame or is this who he is?What do you call a frozen hamburger patty – a Brrr-ger

Justin Mason: I think he could, but there is risk because the Rangers did send him down last year and he is prone to slumps

4 Keeps: Hi Justin! AL Only OBP 10 team keeper. Can you pick a couple favorites from Gunnar 33, Springer 15, Aranda 7, Bednar 10, Varsho 4, Bubic 1…?

Justin Mason: Gunnar, Springer, Bednar, Aranda, Varsho, Bubic in that order

Oops: In a 12-team roto league where I had the draft date wrong and ended up with an auto-draft team that I actually like … except I have no closers. Wire has no real good options beyond Taylor Rogers. Beyond adding him, any suggestions for getting out of the SV hole?

Justin Mason: Riley O’Brien, Kirby Yates, Justin Sterner

Cold Turkey Stearnes: 30 tm dynasty points, keep forever.

Recently acquired Yordan Alvarez (eligible at OF), but I’m concerned about his knees.  Will he maintain OF eligibility for some time, or should I flip him before I’m stuck with a UT-only player?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he retains it moving forward. They need to protect him.

WBCfan: Who do you like more this year, and who (if different) do you like more long term? Jonah Tong vs Parker Messick

Justin Mason: I like Tong more long term, but I do love Messick and he is better short term

Steve: How does Jeremy Pena pinky fracture change his outlook this year? Besides potentially missing a bit of early April, is he now potentially a discount target?

Justin Mason: I just lower the plate appearances. I am not worried it will be a long term issue that lingers.

Jeffrey: 10 team roto league that uses QS and OBP, 10 P slots, 1 C. Keep 2 of Ben Rice (C-eligible) for $1 or Emmet Sheehan for $1? Both could be kept 2026 & 2027.

Justin Mason: keep both

Shane Belieber: Shane Bieber went undrafted in my 12-team roto league; worth an add and an IL stash? Would have to drop one of Gil, Mize or Flaherty

Justin Mason: I dont think you need to

Guest: Paul Sewald is showing a 2mph velocity increase from last year. What’s your feeling on him taking the closer job and Ginkel being the set-up man?

Justin Mason: Sewald is another RP spec I am buying right now. I think he is the guy to start the year in Arizona as long as he is healthy.

Pitt 4 Life: Oniel Cruz his .259 in 2024 and right at the Mendoza line last season. Which guy is he really?

Justin Mason: probably closer to the mendoza line.

Xtopher: Points lg, $300 cap 35 slots, no MI/CI slot. 3 year keeper window, all are entering year two. Can you rank these? Muncy $3 Ramos $4 Butler $11 Castro $2. I need to keep two.

Justin Mason: Muncy, Castro, Butler, Ramos

Mika: Is this the season Casey Mize becomes dominant? A couple years removed from surgery and with experience and a massive arsenal

Justin Mason: I don’t see dominance in Mize. I think he is more of a mid rotation guy that is fine but not much more than an SP 3 or 4

Liam: Keeper advice, h2h 7×7 (hits, obp/qs, holds). Keep player in round they were drafted (last round if waiver pick up). Think I have to keep Roman Anthony in 26th. Other options for second keeper: Eury (25th), Hunter Green (9th), Joe Ryan (10th), Bradish (25th), JRam (1st, will probably be picking 10th in 1st round).

Justin Mason: Anthony, Eury, Ryan, JRam are the ones I could keep.

Cold Turkey Stearnes: More 30th dynasty

How do you best build MLB depth in a league like that?  I inherited the team, and it has some good players (everybody got a real MLB/MiLB roster when the league started some years ago), but very little MLB depth and some of my guys are almost unplayable.  I can’t even fill my bullpen with MLB guys.  How do I fix this?

Justin Mason: Dynasty is about committing to your strategy. If your MLB team is bad, commit to being terrible and rebuilding that farm. I am in a super deep league like this and have made mistakes, like trading Konnor Griffin to get out of a bad contract, that I now regret.

Jeffrey: Sorry, got cut-off earlier. Pick 2 keepers in a 10-team roto league that uses QS & OBP, 10 P slots, 1 C slot. Michael Busch $1, Ben Rice $1, Emmet Sheehan $1, Jeremy Pena $3. All could be kept both 2026 & 2027.

Justin Mason: Rice and Sheehan still

Tom D: Hey Justin, I’m in a dynasty league, what side of the trade do you like more, Konnor Griffin & Jackson Chourio or Colt Emerson & Tatis

Justin Mason: Griffin side

WBCfan: Hey Jason! Need some assistance with final keeper. 12-team weekly category, keep 12 + 4minor leaguers w/3$ inflation 260$ budget (weirdly 5 hitting but only 4 pitching categories, one of which is SVHLD so SP are max 3 category contributors, very old league with attachment to 9 categories because games are 9 innings). 3$ J. Wilson (i have gunner), 6$ R. Laureano (OF is a weakness), 23$ Yelich, 23$ Altuve, 26$ Snell, 3$ Boyd. Very competitive team but tight on budget with other keepers (and that i will have to drop a 35$ mookie who has been on the roster since he was in AA)

Justin Mason: I would keep Wilson, Yelich and Boyd. Probably not the others.

R: Is the Sal Stewart hype train real enough to justify taking him in a keeper league over some of the other more steady CI types  that usually go in the late 100s (Willson Contreras, Alec Burleson, etc)?

Justin Mason: I think the upside warrants it

Steve E: With Rojas all but officially gonzo, what can we expect from Justin Crawford? Looks like there’s no other CFs rostered and he’s got the gig.

Justin Mason: I think he is the guy in center. I would expect a decent average and 25+ stolen bases without much pwoer.

Vic: Do you value hitting or pitching high in the draft in keeper leagues?

Justin Mason: hitting. Pitching gets hurt too often

Jojo: is Colt Keith a breakout candidate?

Justin Mason: I think he is but I have always been a fan

Rankings: Anywhere we can see your individual rankings?

Justin Mason: on the sleeper and the bust patreon

Soner: Can Miguel Vargas go 25/10?

Justin Mason: I dont think so

Eliot Lux: Thoughts on McGonigle as a ultra-late draft pick? 300-325 area?

Justin Mason: If he is going there in my drafts, he is on my team in a heartbeat. He will be going top 150 in most NFBC leagues

Guest: Should I be concerned about Rice’s playing time after the Yanks signing Goldy? What sort of PAs do you expect for Rice this year?

Justin Mason: I still think he finds 600+ plate appearances between first, catcher and DH. The yankees will get hurt like they always do.

Bobby: can c Montgomery have success with his contact rates?

Justin Mason: If he maintains the z-contact and O-swing he did last year, he will be fine. His spring numbers there are even better than last season, though it’s a super small sample

JD: This is how I rank these pitchers for a 5×5 12 team roto where a player can be retained 3 rds higher each year; what would you change (assume I can keep them for the next 5 years based on where I am going to select them): B Ashcraft, P Messick, Simeon W-Richardson, Mick Abel, Jacob Lopez, Luis Morales, Ian Seymour, Shane Smith

Justin Mason: Messick, Seymour, Abel, Ashcraft, Morales, Lopez, Smith, SWR

MattStats5: Thanks for doing these, Justin!  5 keep forever league.  6×6 head to head, OPS vice avg, QS vs W.  I’m keeping BWJ, Gunnar (util), and Skenes.  Last two keepers are down to Kurtz, JRod, and Chourios.  Advice, please?

Justin Mason: Chourio and J-Rod.

Grateful: Thanks Justin, I can select one in a Stratomatic keeper league:  Eldridge, Stewart, Caglionone.  Please help me order in your preference.

Justin Mason: Cags

MF Luder: 18 team dynasty league: I can move Michael Busch and Cam Schlittler for Logan Gilbert. Thoughts? Theres a salary component, but for the sake of a simple question I will leave that out

Justin Mason: It’s super risky because of Gilbert’s elbow issues last year. I probably keep the pair

Jim: Are you buying Tolle as a long term stud and, if so, do you buy him at $13 as a 3 year keeper even if he’s not going to start ’26 in the rotation?

Justin Mason: I probably wouldn’t spend $13

Adenolith: Do you generally have a value target in auctions? Like, I’ve heard people say they’ll always stop bidding $2 before their projected values. Is this something you adhere to?

Justin Mason: for the most part that is what I am doing. I don’t want to pay at value because there is no profit there. I want to extract as much value as I can from each spot. So for the more expensive players I want at least $1-3 of value and that should grow as the draft goes on where I want more like $3-5 in the mid rounds.

clydethedog: please tell me Dylan Crews will hit about .230……

Justin Mason: I will not

Daylight Savings: Hope you have recovered…you sounded tired yesterday. Also, Daylight Savings should be a 3 day weekend. That’s all

Justin Mason: yeah, I was exhausted. Waking up early on a Sunday to record is one thing. Losing an hour of sleep on top of that is just criminal

Jim: What is Grant Taylor’s role in ’26?  MIRP who becomes a starter next season, or do they acknowledge his present ability and let him close this year?

Justin Mason: Sounds like they are going to stretch him out to start in season

MF Luder: Maybe I am believing too much in Rays magic (is that even still a thing?) But I think Gavin Lux could be an All Star 2B this season. Thoughts?

Justin Mason: I think you need to lay off the Ray’s magic juice

Eric S.: Who are you some of your deepest starting pitching sleepers?

Justin Mason: I am a big fan of Messick, Chad Patrick, Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews and Zach Eflin

GT: Buy or Sell, what’s your projection for Jac Caglianone for this year?

Justin Mason: 25 homers/3 SBs, .247 aver

1.1 and 1.2 are obvious: Thanks for chatting Justin! I lucked into the third pick in a 15-team 5×5 H2H league, with OBP instead of AVG.  Agonizing over Witt vs Soto.  Any thoughts?

Justin Mason: in OBP, take Soto

mindaugas: If you could create a fantasy league from scratch, what changes would you make to categories in a keeper-type roto league and what changes would you make in a keeper-type points league?

Justin Mason: first, make it an auction. Keepers are just so much fun in the auction format. I think I would do enough keepers where you can really build a team for the long haul but not so many that one team can dominate forever. 8-10 keepers. I would also make it all-play if you are doing a H2H format. Don’t let the randomness of matchups determine the winner. I do think in a fantasy football league and it’s a little more work for the commisioner but so much more fun for the players.

Eyebrows: Where can you look up Spring training stats for teams? I know things like SB attempt rate are sticky going into the season. But how can we see which teams are attempting steals the most?

Justin Mason: MLB.com

Lord Thunder: How many starts does Zach Eflin make this season?

Justin Mason: 25

Adenolith: I don’t think Tovar is anywhere close to the 55th best hitter in our league, but that’s why my auction values are telling me. I’m trying to be objective and remove my biases, but what do you do when expectations are that far off of your data?

Justin Mason: I do my own projections so I don’t often run into those things. Maybe try a different projection for him because I wouldnt think he’d grade out that high either.

Jim: Final keeper dart throw for an AL only league: Cam Smith $2, Tolle $3, Noah Cameron $3, or keep the money for the auction?

Justin Mason: Smith

Guest: should I drop will smith for Ivan herrera

Justin Mason: if Herrera is already catcher eligible, I would do that in a shallow one catcher league

Jim: Keeper league, OBP not AVG.  Got Neto at $23 and M Garcia at $20.  Which one would you add another $5 for another keeper year (or both)?

Justin Mason: I rarely do this unless the player is a generational talent. I want more money in the auction

Meet the Mets: I have Soto, Lindor, Benge, and Baty potentially in my lineup this year. Can you have too many players on one team in a head to head league pts?

Justin Mason: I worry about that a little if a team goes on a cold streak, but I would assume that there isn’t much data behind that being a real issue

MF Luder: Do you have opinions on Uribe vs Megill?

Justin Mason: I think Uribe is the full time closer by May

Jesus: Thoughts on Jhostynxon Garcia

Justin Mason: Has some really interesting pop if he can make contact and not strikeout. So far has done that in spring, but I don’t know where he plays regularly.

Greenmtnboys: 12 T 5×5 OBP Keep 2 – $21 Greene, $15 Duran, $9 Hoerner, $28 Devers

Justin Mason: Duran and Horner

Justin Mason: look at that! through all the questions right on time!

Justin Mason: please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!