Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – March 3, 2025

Justin Mason: Starting a little late today because it is TGFBI Day! I will begin as soon as I have enough questions so get those in. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Todd Gak: Cristopher Sanchez is a top ___ pitcher in 2025.

Justin Mason: 30-35 SP on my ranks right now

Adenolith: Do you build your projections from scratch or do you start with a projection system and then manually adjust for playing time/injury context etc…?

Justin Mason: I do my projections from scratch. I look at the historical data and then adjust from there. I think this leads to less bias for me.

Greg: How would you rank Bryan Woo, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler in a 12-team keep forever points league that more heavily weighs IP and Ks?

Justin Mason: Jones, Chandler, Woo

Last Man In: I hope that your drafting went well today.

Justin Mason: Thank you! had a great LABR auction last night which the live stream of it is on my youtube and then TGFBI started a few minutes ago and I was able to grab Ohtani with pick 2.

Adenolith: Do you approach injury risk a bit different for H2H leagues? In my mind you can weather injuries a bit more in H2H if a guy like Royce or Seager lifts your ceiling pretty significantly when healthy.

Justin Mason: It really depends on the amount of IL spots I have. I tend to draft guys that are steady contributors in H2H. The guys with massive ups and downs can sink you in individual weeks which is frustrating because they are so hard to predict. Nothing worse than dominating a league to lose in the playoffs because of those types of players.

Jay: Am I overrating A’s & Rays hitters going into draft season? Or should I just snipe guys like Gelof, Soderstrom, Lowe & Lowe as close to last rounders? (10 team, points)

Justin Mason: If you are getting them that late, it is worth the gamble. It’s hard to predict how these park will play until we see them in season, but as a your last few picks, there is no real downside because you can drop them if need be.

Teddy: In a 12-team dynasty points league, my team is pretty middle of the road. Should I trade Blake Snell for Jared Jones and Bryan Woo?

Justin Mason: I don’t think so

Jay: Am I bumping Bregman up too much since he’ll likely gain 2B in week 2 of the season? I see top 5 2B

Justin Mason: I don’t think there is a guarantee he actually gains the eligibility. Bregman fits the Red Sox more at 3B and Devers fits them more at DH. So while it would be great if Bregman gained that eligibility, I wouldn’t necessarily bank on it yet. That being said, I would have Bregman as a top 5 2B if he got the eligibility.

Lowetide: In a points league, do you like Riley Greene or Lawrence Butler more? Is it close?

Justin Mason: Butler and it is not close for me

Bobby Peru: What are you projecting for Matt McLain in terms of triple slash and HR/SB? Do you see him playing ~150 games?

Justin Mason: .268/.347/.487 with 21 home runs and 24 stolen bases. Just update my projection on him today. I am a buyer since he is looking like he is healthy.

Mochi: What’s your process for stopping yourself from overpreparing for drafts?  Do you have one?  Do you just let it fly until you’re on the clock each pick and you’re not worried about overanalyzing?

Justin Mason: I feel like I am a classic overprepper so maybe I am not the best person to answer this. However, once I have my projections and prep done, I am pretty good about just making my picks the best I can. I don’t overthink it while I am on the clock because I have put so much time in before that moment.

How to Start: Holding the 4th/5th/6th pick… big guns (Ohtani, Judge, Witt) are gone. In a typical 5×5 12 team setting, who are your next 3? Soto is awful tempting, but position scarcity makes it hard to pass up Ramirez or Vlad, and Gunnar is another good one even with SS depth. And I hate arms in the first, but Skubal should be in the mix too. Where do you go?

Justin Mason: For me it is J-Ram. He is just such a consistent stud, but I also don’t think you can go wrong

Mochi: 10 team roto 5×5, need to choose 2 of 4 – Jack Flaherty 25th round, Shota Imanaga 14th Round, Reynaldo Lopez 25th Round, Jared Jones 25th round.  Leaning Flaherty/Imanaga. But I really want to talk myself into Jones.

Justin Mason: Flaherty/Imanaga for me

Tom: Does Reese Olson take that next step in 2025 to become a top 50-60 fantasy SP?

Justin Mason: I think Olson is who he is at this point which is a fine middle of the rotation innings eater type. I don’t think there is another level, but it is a decent floor.

Limpin’ Jack Flash: Hey, J!  My weird league offers us one N/A spot which does not count against our roster limit.  Balancing probability of enough PA or IP to make a difference in 5×5 H2H (OBP and SOLDS) with very rough ADP zone, whom are 2-3 good picks for this year’s better prospects?

Justin Mason: Roman Anthony, Matt Shaw and Kristian Campbell

Bobby Peru: Any other guys like Willson Contreras (C eligible but should get full time AB at another position) you’re keeping your eyes on in ST?

Justin Mason: Hunter Goodman. There is a ton of power in the bat and he can play other positions for the Rockies. He strikes out too much but if he has a role that nets him 500 PAs, he could hit 30+ bombs

Dodgers Blue: How quickly is Schwellenbach moving up the rankings – and is his price too much at this point?  Who are some alternative mini sleepers you are still getting at a reasonable cost?

Justin Mason: His price isn’t too much for me, but I am probably the high man on him in the industry. I just love the command and control and think there are more strikeouts in the profile. Other pitchers I am higher on than consensus include:
Bailey Ober, Cristopher Sanchez, Max Meyer, Tanner Bibee, Bryce Miller, Brandon Pfaadt. Jose Berrios, Justin Steele, Nick Martinez, and Jeffrey Springs

Dodgers Blue: Who are some guys you are predicting to have a substantial jump in SBs this year that we aren’t thinking enough about?

Justin Mason: So for this, I look at teams. Guys on the Nationals, Brewers, Reds and Angels especially Luis Rengifo, Yoan Moncada, Jacob Young, Nathaniel Lowe, Joey Ortiz, Garrett Mitchell, Gavin Lux, Austin Hays

Last Man In: In a 12-team league that keeps 10 players forever, with 2 UT spots and BB as a hitter category and IP as a pitching category.
My Top 9 are: Witt. Abrams. Caminero. Langford. Ja. Duran. Ragans. Skubal. Gilbert. Jh. Duran.
I see the other possibles as: Semien. Butler. J. Naylor.
What would you do?

Justin Mason: Butler for me.

Bob: Hi Justin, enjoyed the stream last night. Big picture, How would you approach choice of keepers in this league? Just focus on obvious values? Or also evaluate middling value guys?    std roto, 15tm. Max 9 keepers allowed (draft day =27 rnds  405players drafted ) e.g. rnd 27 D. Rassmussen makes sense but there’s always middling players like M. Miller 11th rnd…

Justin Mason: So I am always looking for the best possible values but keeping in mind inflation at the draft table. I think one of the exceptions is with closers. Because there are a limited number of closers, I will take a lesser value there in order to make sure I leave with guys I like at the position

Justin Mason: So I would probably go with Miller here

Guest: Rank them please… Birdsong, Brown, Bido, G. Holmes, and Luis Gil (shoulder) – all very cheap keepers but I can only keep two as non have MiLB options – We play in 20-team MLB very competitive league with 26 man active rosters inside a 40-man roster and a 60 man MiLB (we play as close to MLB rules as possible).

Justin Mason: I assume that is Hunter Brown? If so, Brown, Holmes, Gil, Birdsong, Bido

Conor: Any chance that Vidal Brujan ends up being deep league/draft champion useful this year? Trying not to be fooled by the spring training playing time/performance but it seems like there’s some opportunity for PAs early on this team.

Justin Mason: I think now that Shaw is back playing, Brujan is a utility guy and probably not super viable.

RAGBRAI: Is a $9 Lux better than a $1 Bart in an NL only 11 team 5×5? Thanks in advance.

Justin Mason: No

Ken: Hi Justin. Final keeper advice needed between the following, with cost : Albies or Semien (3rd rd), T. Hernandez (6th), Ober (8th), Imanaga (15th) or Hunter Brown (22nd). My other seven are Soto (1st), Machado (2nd), Ozuna (17th), Ragans (20th), D. Williams (21st), deGrom (23rd), O.Cruz (26th). Thanks!

Justin Mason: It’s between the pitchers for me. Love Ober and Imanaga at those prices, but Brown seems like the best value

Jesse: In a 5×5 (OBP instead of AVG) 12-team, h2h league, can you rank these five guys?

Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Rafael Devers

I’ve got it Riley, Schwarber, Olson, Devers, Pete

Justin Mason: Schwarber, Riley, Olson, Alonso, Devers

Dodgers Blue: Any pitchers, guaranteed NOT to start the season in the majors, you are rostering on the dream they get the call quickly and dominate through the EOY?

Justin Mason: Not really. I tend to not roster these guys. Bubba Chandler might be the only exception I can think of.

Curious George: Do you use computer technology in your drafts or prep sheets?   If it is the later, what kind of information do you include on those sheets?

Justin Mason: I use Smart Fantasy Baseball’s draft software. Best $17 you can spend. Highly recommend it. Make sure you buy the Process by Jeff Zimmerman as a supplement.

Guest: Ben Brown!  Oops.  Sorry

Justin Mason: Drop him below Gil

Dodgers Blue: In a 12 team, around what round would you even bother to consider drafting one-dimension average only guys?  The math plays out that unless you are grabbing a few of them, no one guy – no matter how good their average is – really moves the needle on the whole all that much.

Justin Mason: Maybe in the back half of the draft if I was desperate for average. That being said, if I am in that position, I have messed up along the way.

Jesse: In SVH, are you still in on the big closers and the need to get one early, or does it veer closer to the old-timey “there’s always guys available?”

Justin Mason: In this format, I devalue all the relief pitching. You can make it work later in the draft.

Ben-Jammin: I am in a keeper points league, trying to decide on my last couple arms. Who would you keep, all at the same value, for 2024 and beyond between deGrom, Alcantara, Gallen, Schwellenbach, and Jobe? I can pick three from this bunch. Weighing the seasoned vs the young studs has been a challenge. Anyone I don’t keep will likely be gone by the time my pick comes up.

Justin Mason: Schwellenbach for me.

diadem: Will we see Endy  Rodriguez at 1b more this year?

Justin Mason: Maybe a little, but I don’t think a ton.

Mark: What do you expect from Jobe this season? Think he cracks the opening day rotation?

Justin Mason: I think he makes the rotation and is a very good pitcher with ups and downs expected as a young guy. Worth the gamble because the price is affordable

diadem: How concerning is Steer’s shoulder injury?

Justin Mason: Super concerning to me. I dropped his projection yesterday and it made him a negative value player in 12-team formats.

Dodgers Blue: Two catcher league, how much does Drake Baldwin’s value now jump on the news of Sean Murphy out to start the year?

Justin Mason: I think a lot. He should break camp with the team and he may not give the job back.

Peter: Picking Aaron Judge at #3. Who would you pair with at #28 of Austin Riley, Jazz Chisolm, Matt Olson, Manny Machado or Ketel Marte. Then at 3rd pick was thinking of CJ Abrams or O’Neil Cruz. Thoughts?

Justin Mason: Kind of love that start. I would go Abrams in the third for the speed.

PJ: Would you trade Alonso for Skenes in 5×5 10 team roto?

Justin Mason: Absolutely

Kevin: 5X5 Roto with QS instead of wins and k/9 instead of K, who are you keeping, Glasnow or Mason Miller?

Justin Mason: Miller

JM: 14 team,  6×6 H2H, J. Holliday, J. Caminero, O. Cruz, B. Doyle, L. Robert Jr, M. Busch, A. Volpe & L. Garcia Jr are my offensive players supporting K. Tucker & P. Alonso, have a killer Pitching staff, my question is, is the variance on those guys too much to overcome, should I trade some of my pitching depth (F. Peralta is my 5th starter) now and get more offensive punch

Justin Mason: I would absolutely trade Peralta for some more stable offense. I love a lot of those guys but that is a pretty risky base.

Ben-Jammin: How far is Alcantara moving up your board given his spring performances? Pumping 99 with control has been impressive. Vintage Sandy

Justin Mason: Not for me. I know that he has been a stud in the past but remember how Robbie Ray looked last year coming off of TJ. Had the velo but the control and command were great one start and non-existent the next. For a pitcher who won’t get wins because the Marlins are terrible who relies so much on that command and control, it is just too much risk for me.

Last Man In: I have 3 teams drafting ideas for you.

1. Hungry like a Wolf- where I draft Jarren and Jhoan Duran.
2. The (Almost) Jackson 5- draft includes Jacksons: Chourio, Merrill, Holliday and Jobe
3. The LowDown-  drafting Lowe: Brandon, Josh and Nate.

Hopefully good for a laugh.

Justin Mason: #2 has me rolling right now. Point awarded!

Johan: Where are you on Matt McLain? The projections love him, he seems to have a good handle on 2B, is producing in spring, has a good ballpark and lineup.  Is he undervalued at ~90 ADP?

Justin Mason: Scroll up. I just bumped up his projection and posted it in the chat. I am a buyer now that he seems to be healthy.

Dave: 12-team mixed, keep-6 league; looking at a competition for my final keeper between Kristian Campbell, Jared Jones, Royce Lewis, and Felix Bautista (all similarly priced).  My other keepers are Skubal, Kirby, deGrom, Jobe, Yordan Alvarez.  What should I do?

Justin Mason: Lewis for me

Izzy: Do you ever play computer simulation games like Strat?

Justin Mason: I don’t only because I have so little time now and I am afraid that I would get sucked into it too much.

E: Freddie Freeman stats dipped a bit last year. age related decline or a a bit of a bounceback candidate?

Justin Mason: I think it was injury. The Dodgers have said they will manage his ankle this year so I lowered his projection over the weekend. Probably not going to be a buyer at his current ADP

smuckles: Justin! In a roto dynasty league. Can keep 25. Do I keep Joey Bart, or just go into the draft and see what’s leftover at C?

Justin Mason: REally depends on the depth of league and format. Is it a 2-catcher league? how many teams?

Bill: 12 team, partial keeper (up to 6 players, $275 budget) auction league, 11 x 11 categories. Chourio ($9), Merrill ($8), Ragans ($8), Schwellenbach ($4), and J. Jones ($2) locked in. Struggling between James Wood ($4) and Robbie Ray ($4). Wood very likely more valuable in future, but Ray healthy and strikeouts galore this year (hopefully). Who would you keep?

Justin Mason: Wood for me

PJ: How do you rank the following in 5×5 10 team roto-Oldy Goldy, Mountcastle, Toglia and Vaughn?

Justin Mason: Goldy, Toglia, Mountcastle, Vaughn

Clay: 16 team roto huge rosters (26 starters, 14 bench, 40 minors) saves and holds separate categories. Who are some deep league relief pitchers who have good ratios, maybe get some sneaky save chances

Justin Mason: Kittredge, Joyce, Chad Green, Ryan Fernandez, Scott Barlow, Jesus Tinoco, Joel Payamps

Mustin Jason: Are any of these worth keeping for a $1? And which one would you keep?
Luis Garcia Jr
Nimmo
Maikel Garcia

Justin Mason: Both Garcia’s are. Nimmo could be depending on depth of league

Rule of Thumb: What’s your thoughts process on how many SP to roster given innings caps?  For example, Ottoneu has 1,500 IP max across 5 SP and 5 RP active slots.  History tells me I will get about 350 IP from my RP, leaving 1,150 for my starters.  Allowing for injury risk, the ability to sit guys against tough matchups, etc., how many SPs do you want to roster coming out of the auction?  Personally, I shoot for 9-10 SP with a combined 1,600 projected IP or so.  You?

Justin Mason: I honestly don’t know enough about Ottoneu to answer this well. This is a better question for Chad. I hate innings maximums. I think it benefits players who aren’t as active.

Justin Mason: That is all the questions in the queue. I started a little late so I will keep going if you all have more questions

Yudanab: Nolan Jones rebounding?

Justin Mason: I don’t have a ton of faith, but the price is cheap enough that it is worth the gamble

Johnny: Watched your auction last night, thanks for streaming.  Doing a 10 team mixed auction, only have done 14 teams.  Would you suggest more of stars & scrubs in a 10 team as faab pool will be greater?

Justin Mason: absolutely. Definitely try and get some elite talent. I went a little too balanced last night and was kind of kicking myself when I saw what was still available in the reserves. push up the prices on the top guys because there will be so many good $1 players at the end

smuckles: Justin, Re: Bart. Ten teams, once C

Justin Mason: Then no

Guest: Am I too late if I haven’t replied to your TGFBI satelite email yet?

Justin Mason: No! I am still taking sign ups for a few more days!

Guest: Keeper deadline coming up. 12-team mixed, standard 5 x 5 categories EXCEPT we are using SV+H, plus extra categories OPS, K/9. Redraft league with up to five keepers, each keeper means forfeiting a draft pick (1 keeper = no first-round pick, 2 keepers = no first or second-round pick, etc.), so if your guy has an ADP over 60, you’re probably best off keeping him. You are also allowed ONE prospect keeper that doesn’t count against the five regular keepers. Juan Soto is a lock, of course, but things are wide open behind him. My candidates for the other four slots are Freddie Freeman, Jackson Chorio, Logan Webb, Spencer Strider (whom I spent an IL slot on all last season to keep), Christian Walker, Jackson Holliday, Dylan Crews, Randy Arozarena, and Matt McLain. For my prospect keeper choice, I have Carson Williams and Samuel Basallo. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Chourio, McLain, Holliday, Freeman

Johnny: I also laughed when you are talking about players not being healthy to take while you are smoking and drinking pop 🙂

Justin Mason: lmao

Justin Mason: Yeah, I am not the bastion of health

Justin Mason: at least it was diet soda

Boingboing: Every projection system except ZiPS has deGrom with 20+ starts and 100+ IP.  He hasn’t reach either of those numbers since 2019 and he’s now turning 37.  What’s a reasonable over/under on his innings?  60?

Justin Mason: I projected him for 135. No reason for them to baby him but I think we have to temper expectations.

Johnny: Follow up on the 10 team answer.  For hitters for sure what about pitchers or s&s for both?

Justin Mason: yes, I would go stars and scrubs for both.

Justin Mason: out of questions again…

Brad: Is Snell worth the price now that he’s on the Dodgers and Roberts will be constantly pulling him in the 6th inning before he gets a QS? My league does QS. Wins is a lame stat.

Justin Mason: I don’t think a lot of Dodgers pitchers are worth the price this year considering how they protect them. six man rotation and a stacked bullpen has me pushing almost all of them down

Colton: Finished a dynasty start up draft last night, need 4 guys to assign 5 year contracts to. Witt, Merrill, Butler are probably taking the first 3 of those. The last one if between Riley Greene, Jared Jones, Yamamoto, who would you give it to?

Justin Mason: Yamamoto and Jones

ML: I have Alejandro Kirk as my #1 catcher and I need a backup to get to ~550-600 PA. Who do you prefer between Victor Caratini and Gary Sanchez?

Justin Mason: Sanchez

Dennis: Your thoughts on how Robbie Ray will play out this year.

Justin Mason: I think we will get a lot of strikeouts and if he can fill up the zone the way he was doing prior to the injury, he could be a massive bargain

Guest: 10 team H2H keeper, $63 salary cap.  Would you trade Soto (6), Strider (3), and K.Campbell (1) for Elly (2)?

Justin Mason: no

PJ: Please rank these outfielders in roto-Ward, Nimmo, PCA, O’Neill, Toglia.

Justin Mason: Ward, Toglia, O’Neil, Nimmo, PCA

Chris: ATC projection for Taylor Ward: too hot or about right?

Justin Mason: too hot for me

ML: think Flaherty can repeat last year’s performance?

Justin Mason: If he is healthy, I think he can

Rule of Thumb: Is there a list for your positional ranks?  I’m only seeing SS and C on your FG author page.

Justin Mason: They are going to be available on the sleeper and the bust patreon

Wood: 12 man OBP league, 1b is Goldy, SS is Bichette, Util is Royce. Do I pick up Arraez, Correa or CES as my bench bat?

Justin Mason: CES

Guest: Which possible of these three earns a rotation spot and shines bright?

Guest: Shawver, Roupp or Boyle?

Justin Mason: None?

Guest: Best keeper for a $1?
Flaherty, Jobe, or Max Meyer

Justin Mason: Flaherty

Jay: In a keeper league where we can stash TJ’s on the roster for late rounders the following year. As an example, I have a 24th round deGrom this year because of that. Any guys that had TJ last year you think would be worth holding as an IL stash all year? Is Bieber the closest thing?

Justin Mason: Eury Perez for me

disco cisco: how do you feel about Charlie Condon?

Justin Mason: I just don’t know if the hit tool is going to be enough to make it work at the big leagues, but man is there a lot of power.

PJ: Thoughts on woodruff comeback this season?

Justin Mason: I hope he is successful because I love watching him pitch, but I won’t be drafting him anywhere.

Justin Mason: Alright, we are all out of questions again so I will wrap up. please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!