Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – March 24, 2025

Justin Mason: I will begin at the top of the hour as long as I have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

JoeG14: Need to add a bat, rank : Cam Smith, Larnach, Soderstrom ? 12T mixed roto.

Justin Mason: I think I would add Smith for the upside.

Micah: Thanks for the chat, Justin! 5×5 roto (OPS): Pick an upside bat to stash heading into the first week of the season:

Roden, Baty, Jose Miranda, Jhonkensy

Justin Mason: Baty for me

Nomar: Looking for a last round starting pitcher that you feel has great potential. Standard roto league

Justin Mason: I have been targeting Max Meyer, Mike Soroka, Kris Bubic, Griffin Canning, and Tyler Mahle

Bleacher Bums: What are the offenses to stream against? MIA, CWS, road Rockies and anyone else?

Justin Mason: Giants at home, Pittsburgh, and maybe St. Louis

JoeG14: Need to add a middle infielder , rank ; Jacob Wilson윌슨, Massey , Tyler Fitzgerald, Nick Gonzales. 12T mixed roto.

Justin Mason: Wilson

Bruce: Any comparable examples for Mookie?  I feel like I want him to go on the IL until his strength is back?

Justin Mason: Hard to really know, but this derailed Vaughn Grissom last year. Obviously a much different talent level of player, but I am very worried about this weight loss.

Andy: Mookie Betts down 20 pounds due to this mysterious illness he has?! If you have him, would you be looking to sell?

Justin Mason: depends on what I can get back, but I would entertain it for sure.

RD: 15-team mixed, 24 active and 10 bench spots, $200 of FAAB for season.  Is Mason Montgomery worth some FAAB to start season?  $5 enough, or too much?

Justin Mason: I think so. Especially if he is going to be a follower in a tandem

Todd: Any late round AL, power bats you like? We are an OBP and SLG league, so a little afraid of the Adell types

Justin Mason: Jhonkensy Noel, Torkelson, Cam Smith

Justin Mason: Not much there. Get your power early

Schilling & Pence: What do we think about Alan Roden?  The projection systems have him sub 300 OBP, but he looked pretty good this Spring and now it looks like he’ll get some runway.

Justin Mason: I think he is more of a .350 OBP guy with a little pop and speed. Needs to accumulate which could be hard if he platoons.

SteveS: 12 team, Roto League, QS. Early injuries have played havoc with my staff, Jared Jones, Shane McClanahan. The Pirates seem silent on Jones which is an ominous sign. Grabbed Tylor Megill and thinking of picking up Hayden Wesneski. Thoughts on these two. Current staff is Michael King, Joe Ryan, Reese Olson Tanner Houck, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jose Soriano. Can I make do with this group?

Justin Mason: I think you will need to stream a lot or get lucky with some pick ups. I do like what you have but there isn’t as much upside as I would like to see in a 12-teamer. Hopefully McClanahan isn’t out long because I think Jones is cooked for this year

Guardians Fan: I’m in an AL only Scoresheet league.  Injuries have decimated my starting rotation.  How would you rank the following pitchers, originally slated as depth pieces:  Kris Bubic, Quinn Priester, and Hayden Wesneski

Justin Mason: Bubic, Wesneski, Priester

JW: What’s the outlook on Nolan Gorman now with Scott getting the CF job? He’s one of 3 2B on my roster in a 12-team FG points, rostered for $4. Thinking of dropping him and picking up another pitcher instead. Would I be making a mistake, or am I right in thinking that his PA will crater?

Justin Mason: I would drop him in a 12. I think he is a utility guy now

Bruce: From the time he debuts, Andrew Painter is a top [XX] starting pitcher.  (plz fill in the blank)

Justin Mason: 50 and that might be generous. Love Painter for 2026, but I think they are going to be really careful with him coming off of TJ.

Guest: Is Luke Keaschall going to break camp with the Twins? With Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee injured, it seems as if there is a path to regular playing time between 1B, 2B and DH.

Justin Mason: Doesn’t look like it

Guest: Which mediocre pitchers would you immediately jump on if they were traded to a org with good pitching development (like Astros Kikuchi)

Justin Mason: MacKenzie Gore, Jose Soriano

Schilling & Pence: Who would you rather, David Peterson or Landen Roupp?

Justin Mason: Roupp

The K-Man: If Jake Burger was named Jake Salad, are you still taking him ahead of Bregman in 12-team mixed category leagues?

Justin Mason: probably but this is a team context question more than anything. If you need power, you go burger. If you need runs or average, you go Bregman

Nuts for Nootbaars: Garrett Mitchell or Victor Scott in a 12-team, H2H categories league?

Justin Mason: I think I go Scott here, but it is close

Bruce: I think I’m fully on board for the ABS system, if anything I find myself asking if 2 is too few.  Can you play devils advocate here?  The arguments I’ve heard against ABS haven’t really felt persuasive.

Justin Mason: I don’t think there is a good argument against.

Tinoco: Would I get the majority of the saves or will that darn Faucher guy who made me get a Jab?

Justin Mason: I am betting on Tinoco in the long term, but I think Faucher gets first crack

Bleacher Bums: Spring stats don’t matter but Austin Wells is C_ at end of season? Seems undervalued as he’s going to be leadoff against right handed pitching.

Justin Mason: 12, I really like Wells this year

Breiske: Am I the closer for the Tigers or does someone else get the majority?

Justin Mason: I think they play matchups a ton, but Beau leads the group

BD: Hi Justin, I’m in a 5×5 Roto league that counts Saves + Holds as one of the categories. I have to start 3 RP and Relievers are my weakest position — I have Alvarado, Holderman, Faucher, Payamps, Doval, Taylor Rogers (CIN). I also have Mike Clevinger (who is SP eligible) and can put him into a SP slot to hopefully pick up extra Saves or Holds. I just picked up Ashcraft to do the same thing. It’s a bit of a cheat code in the same way that leagues use SP/RP’s in their RP slots to pick up extra Wins, K’s, etc. But now I have to drop someone. My weakest pitchers are Hayden Wesneski and Ben Brown. Would you drop one of them or one of the other relievers? Thanks.

Justin Mason: I think I drop Brown if it’s a redraft. Wesneski if it is a keeper

Squishy: Every time I look at the projections for 2B, I come away thinking that Matt McLain is the CLEAR #2 at the position behind Marte, at least for my league (R, HR, OBP, SLG).  And given the age difference (and likely price difference), he may be the top target in a keeper league.  Am I just drinking Kool Aid?

Justin Mason: My projections have McLain #2 as well, so I am with you.

bort: justin, thanks as always for the chat! will you do me a favor and hype me up as a genius for snagging graham ashcraft off waivers?

Justin Mason: You are a amazing genius detective!

Baseballs deep: In a 12 team, H2H, 12 category league.  Pitching cats are k, qs, w, s, era and whip.  I’ve got Dustin May slotted in as basically my SP9.  Guys on the wire include Mize, Rasmussen, Roupp, Warren, Rocker, Canning, Max Meyer.  The idea of swapping him for Mize or Rasmussen makes sense to me.  Mize, especially, as he is in the AL central and seems to have taken a step forward this Spring.  Any thoughts?

Justin Mason: I want Rasmussen for sure

Pop: How about 3 bold predictions? and 3 that’d be cool predictions?

Justin Mason:

1. Schwellenbach is a top 10 pitcher
2. Kerry Carpenter hits 40 home runs.
3. Shea Langeliers is the top catcher in the AL

Scalloped Potatoes: In an OBP league where Soderstrom qualifies at catcher, where would he rank?  Somewhere around O’Hoppe?

Justin Mason: That sounds about right. Love him in catcher eligible leagues.

JoeG14: Any preference to add from the Reds bullpen for Saves ?

Justin Mason: Ashcraft or Barlow

Burka Burka: Does Sean Burke getting the opening day start against the Angels tantalize you a little, even just for a see-what-happens stream?

Justin Mason: absolutely. You should be much more liberal with your streams early on

Rick: Speaking of Cam Smith,. If he does a good job in RF, do you see him getting back to playing 3B again?

Justin Mason: I think he is more needed in the outfield with the team’s current construction, but any injury in the infield could have him back at the hot corner.

smuckles: Justin! Happy Monday! Does Evan Carter have any fantasy juice for this season? Also, should I be worries about Tanner Houck?

Justin Mason: I think Carter is a huge risk with the back and the platoon issues. Could he have any juice? sure, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

JM: Rank the following RP, I want to choose 3 out of 4 in a H2H 6×6 where one of pitching categories is Saves + Hold: Lucas Erceg, Kirby Yates, AJ Put & Trevor Megill

Justin Mason: Megill, Puk, Erceg, Yates

Bruce: We’ve entered every MLB player into a triathlon:

Basketball
Curling
Pingpong

Who takes gold?

Justin Mason: Have to think that it would be between Mookie and Amir Garret

Vic: What do you think Curtis Mead’s AB total will be for the year?

Justin Mason: 400

maris9: Points league please put in order — Freeman, Olson, Alfonso? Thanks

Justin Mason: Freeman, Olson, Alonso

Grasping at Straws: Going into the season, I have no 1B since I was waiting on Vientos to regain eligibility, but Alonso re-signed. Currently holding Torkelson. Should I drop for Soderstrom? Other FA 1B include Vaughn, Schanuel, Aranda, O’Hearn, Rice, Miranda, Wade, Horwitz. Compounding the issue is my lack of C after Alvarez went down with injury. Do I hope Soderstrom catches 5 games for eligibility. Or is there a more palatable alternative?

Justin Mason: Give me Soderstrom

ABS: What kind of pitchers would benefit from the ABS system?

Justin Mason: Probably ones that have bad framing catchers already. Also ones that pound the zone.

RotoGeek: Your wife is very funny! What a twitter follow. Who is her sleeper this year?

Justin Mason: Thank you! I texted her for her answer on this and she says Hayden Birdsong

Pop: Whisper sweet nothings about Heliot Ramos….

Justin Mason: What a sweet song!

JM: 14 team, H2H 6×6 league: Acuna available … Is L. Garcia Jr & L.Robert Jr/Brenton Doyle to much to give up with Jackson Holliday taking over at 2B for Garcia

Justin Mason: If it is a keeper, I would do the Robert/Garcia deal. In a redraft, I am not

maris9: Rather have Donovan or Hoerner as 2B starter?

Justin Mason: Hoerner

Chaco: In your standard 5×5 Lars or Friedl?

Justin Mason: Friedl

Salty: Will Dick Fitts penetrate the Red Sox rotation, or will he limp his way to AAA?

Justin Mason: point awarded! and yes

Chad: Is Josh Lowe gonna breakout a little more this year after the somewhat lost year last year

Justin Mason: I think if he can stay healthy, then yes

Chad: Why hasnt Spencer Turnbull been signed

Justin Mason: No idea. Maybe health?

Pop: Whose your spec in the Cincy pen?

Justin Mason: Barlow for me but Ashcraft is really intriguing

Nasty Nestor: How much will I impact 12 team QS leagues now going from NY to MIL with their pitching success history? What are your thoughts?

Justin Mason: It is all about health for Nestor. I am a big fan of him as a pitcher and I think he is too cheap in the market

Willie Stargell: Wondering what your thoughts on Willson Contreras production with the move to 1B – will he wind up with huge numbers with catcher eligibility?

Justin Mason: I think he could easily be the #1 catcher in fantasy this year because of his volume

Hand Jobe: Are you in on the Jobe bandwagon? Seems like he has become this year’s breakout guy to have but all I see are low k rates and high walk rates?

Justin Mason: I am not fully on board, but I took some early draft gambles because of the pedigree. That being said, he is now too expensive for me.

Tim: I have Nate Lowe as a backup 1B/UT bat in a 16t H2H dynasty…is he still a hold if he stays in the 6 spot in the order, with AVaughb and Schanuel available?

Justin Mason: I am holding over those two

Willie Stargell: Do you think that the final spot on the Astros opening day roster comes down to Cam Smith or Zach Dezenzo?  Any chance they both make it?  Chance either one opens in right field?

Justin Mason: Feels like Smith is the favorite and has a ton of upside. I am taking the gamble he makes it.

Willie Stargell: Who ends up leading the White Sox rotation in IPs this year?  Any chance that the leader has under 130 IPs?

Justin Mason: My projections have Cannon leading with the way with over 130

Holliday on a Holiday: How quickly are you moving off Holliday after his short stint last year? I am in a 10 tm OBP/SLG dynasty league with the first pick and have options of Holliday, Campbell, Shaw, Sasaki. Leaning away from sasaki as my pitching is already stacked but curious who you would pick from that bunch

Justin Mason: I think I still lean Holliday if my pitching is stacked, but I understand going for Campbell

Guest: Mookie illness comps:
Keibert Ruiz missed a week plus early last season, lost a bunch of weight (~20 lbs), rehabbed very briefly – and never looked right the rest of the season.

Justin Mason: This is a good comp. Scares the crap out of me

Chase: Justin, are we worried about Arrighetti’s spring?

Justin Mason: I am. I lowered him in my projections. I just can’t trust the control to ever be there.

Micah: In a QS league, do you lean towards waiting a few starts to throw non-elite SP out there as they build up the capacity to go deeper into games?

Justin Mason: yes, especially if you have a starts limit

Justin Mason: If no starts limit, I don’t worry about it too much because this is a good time to stream for ratios.

Pop: Jays just paid Kirk, he going to get full run this season. What is best case upside?

Justin Mason: Good average with about 500 PAs, but not a ton of power.

Rooked: Are you buying any of these rookies making rosters in a deep OBP league: Campbell, Roden, Max Muncy? I would love decision players for them. Would you take the first over India? The second over Varsho?

Justin Mason: The only one I really care about is Campbell and I would take him over India

Arm Farm: 7×7 15-teamer, pitching cats are ERA, WHIP, QS, K, K:BB, BAA, SV+HD. Have Strider, Eury Perez, McClanahan, and Kirby out to start the year. Current rotation options are Skenes, Alcantara, Luzardo, Jobe, Nick Martinez, Rocker, Ray and Mize. Of the healthy guys, which 5-6 are you most confident in? I’m trying to ID the best way to sort out the back end of that group while I wait for the others to come off the shelf.

Justin Mason: Skenes, Alcantara, Ray, Martinez, Luzardo, Rocker

TB Pen: Thinking about a save spec in tampa. Do you like Uceta, Mason Montgommery, or demoted-remoted Bigge best?

Justin Mason: Uceta

Willie Stargell: Do you think that the Rockies outfield has both Zac Veen and another player who starts in year in the minors (Fernandez) will be regulars by mid-season?

Justin Mason: Veen should for sure, but I am not sold on Fernandez

Guest: Crystal Ball: Will Julio Urias pitch in the MLB in 2025? 2026? ever again?

Justin Mason: Never again

maris9: Is Tony Gonsolin worth taking a flyer on?

Justin Mason: probably not unless it is an extremely deep league

Willie Stargell: Do you think the entire Cubs OF (Happ, PCA, Tucker) can each win a Gold Glove?

Justin Mason: Can? yes. Will? no

Willie Stargell: Who is your favorite under under under under the radar closer of the future on a NL opening day roster?

Justin Mason: Ryan Fernandez in St. Louis

Mr. Lee: I’ve seen Brooks Lee on breakout lists and on meh lists. Switch hitter for a team that values platoons. Would you have him over teammate Willi Castro in an OBP league?

Justin Mason: Not anymore since he is starting on the IL

Injured People Injure People: Hi Justin. who is your guess to  close in TEX? Can you rank Canning, Mahle, J. Hicks, B. Brown, Povich, Paddack, Wesneski, and E. Rodriguez? Thank you.

Justin Mason: Chris Martin in Tex

E-Rod, Mahle, Canning, Hicks, Wesneski, Povich, Hick, Brown, Paddack

Guest: Loaded with arms..points league…traded Framber/Aranda for Paredes /Schanuel..higher on Schan than most..good with that?

Justin Mason: Feel like you should have gotten more back

Willie Stargell: Eury Perez – what do you think he will do this year?

Justin Mason: Probably be a 3-4 inning starter when he comes back in August. See Robbie Ray last year

Brian: 11T mixed, 5×5 roto.  Stay with Rassmussen, my last SP or drop for Bassitt, Taillon, Wacha or G. Holmes?

Justin Mason: Stay

Brian: 11 T 9 pitchers, with saves.  I have Diaz and C. Martin, drop Martin for Jansen, Bednar, J. Martinez or Uceta.  Thanks.

Justin Mason: Jansen

GJ: AJ Puk or Trevor Megill ? 14 team redraft 6×6 H2H where Saves + Holds is a category, currently have Lucas Erceg and Kirby Yates on the roster.

Justin Mason: Megill

BD: Re my question earlier about Wesneski and Ben Brown, why does redraft vs keeper matter? You think Wesneski has long term value? You don’t think Ben Brown (if he makes the rotation) is better than Wesneski? They are both SP/RP too.

Justin Mason: I think Brown is the more intriguing long term arm. So in a keeper league I want him

SheetzRun: Drafted this weekend and even though I had Schwelly moved WAY up my board, the new guy in the league undercut me. Am I stupid to offer Pivetta and Riley Green for Schwelly and McCutcheon (his last pick, who I will drop for Victor Scott or another available FA OF). My pitching is already good, but I really want Schwellenbach. Too much?  (12 team H2H points, 5OF)

Justin Mason: I love Schwellenbach but this does feel like a lot. I might still do it though because I am irrational about him

Guest: is the auction calculator reliable for pitchers whose projections are hedged between starting and relief?

Justin Mason: Honestly, I don’t know the answer to that because I use different software

Altuves in the OF: How long do you think this little experiment lasts for and will it be a detriment to our Astro’s SPs?

Justin Mason: I give it a month

Kevin: What do you make of the Nolan Jones trade? Do you think he gets full-time ABs in Cleveland?

Justin Mason: If healthy, he should. I think it is an interesting gamble for sure

Johnny5Alive: When drafting minor leaguers in an only dynasty league, how do you balance proximity vs impact? For example, in my spot I’m going back and forth between sproat, who should be up this year and help vs Susana who I might have to wait a year or two before they come up.

Justin Mason: depends on if your team is competitive now or not. If you are in the hunt right now, play to win now! If you aren’t really, go with the greater upside.

Justin Mason: Ok, not much time left and a lot of questions, so lets speed round things

Willie Stargell: 10 team NL 4×4 roto 280 salary cap, keep a $7 Austin Hays or a $9 Lourdes Gurriel?  Keep both?  Neither?

Justin Mason: Gurriel

Jared: Preseason prediction fun — in a 12-teamer w/OBP & SLG, who would your end of season keepers be out of Freeman, Westburg, McLain, Jazz, Elly, Kristian Campbell if you could only keep 4, maybe 5?

Justin Mason: Freeman, Jazz, McLain, Elly, Campbell

Fant’sy Feast: Short term MI fill in for a 12-team H2H- available Rafaela, Luisangel, Vargas. (also Keith, Cronenworth, Ortiz) I’m tempted to go Vargas because RR has him leading off – am I crazy?

Justin Mason: Keith

Grade my Trade, please!: Deep as hell 12 Team AL Only Keeper League 5×5 Roto (SV+Hd). Sent Hagen Smith, Kevin Mcgonigle a 1st round Taxi Pick and Joey Cantillo and received Hunter Brown, a 3rd round taxi and a 2nd round taxi……I think I overpaid, but I feel like now is the time to overpay with prospects rather than in August at the deadline?

Justin Mason: I think you overpaid, but if you are playing to win now, I get it

Willie Stargell: Cub prospect who makes the biggest impact in 2025 and 2026: Alcantra, Caissie, Horton, Truants, or someone else?

Justin Mason: Caissie

Rick: Thoughts on PCA? I’m worried about his hitting.

Justin Mason: Defense will keep him in, but I do not think he is a very good hitter in general

Mr. Lee: What kind of pitchers would benefit from the IBS system?

Justin Mason: Point awarded!

Ben Casparius: I’m trying my best. Am I up for good?

Justin Mason: nope

Posey17: Lugo or Woo for a h2h points league?

Justin Mason: depends on depth of league. Shallow league go with the upside of woo. deeper league: Lugo

Louis: Is Jacob Young this year’s Brice Turang (freely available source of stolen bases) and if not, who is?

Justin Mason: He definitely is

Colt Keith: Yes, hello… Long time listener first time caller. Can you tell me why you’re obsessed with zone contact rate? Also your co-host on FWFB is so much cooler than you. I’ll hang up and listen

Justin Mason: Zone contact is the best tool to determine someone’s hit tool. It also gives the player the opportunity to get lucky. It is not the only thing I care about because you can make a ton of contact but if it’s weak, it won’t matter, but it is very important to me in terms of seeing someones true talent level as a hitter.

Liam Hendricks: If he struggles – how quick are you to cut bait on him in a 12 team AL only Sv+Hd league?

Justin Mason: very quickly

Sam: Are we high on Marsh or is it time to move on? I don’t know if he’s worth hanging onto even at a low-ish price

Justin Mason: time to move on

Thanks.: Thanks.

Justin Mason: point awarded

FBP: If Kim (dodgers) was available in a minor league draft would you take him over Spoat, T. white, Augustine Ramirez?

Justin Mason: I wouldn’t take him over Ramirez

Dave: Any chance Jack Suwinski takes the first base job early on?

Justin Mason: I think there is a chance, but it is small

SheetzRun: Or what about Ozuna + Pivetta (I hate having UT only guys) for Schwellenbach + Arenado (hoping the shortened swing and increased bat speed is real)

Justin Mason: I would do that

George: SP thinner than Mookie (looking like Kate Moss)…best option?  Boyd, Carrasco or Warren?

Justin Mason: Warren

Scalloped Potatoes: Not a question, just an FYI.  Cris Sanchez will be a top 10 SP this year.  ACE-level.

Justin Mason: I can see it

Patrick: In a vacuum which 2 of these 4 do you prefer: Luis Castillo, Bailey Ober, Pablo Lopez, Bryan Woo

Justin Mason: Lopez and Ober

Ben Rice: How many ABs do you project for him? Think he makes 5 appearances at catcher this year?

Justin Mason: probably about 400. I don’t think he catches

Dr. Funk: David Robertson worth holding in TGFBI Satellites leagues?

Justin Mason: no, I dropped him in TGFBI

Johnny5Alive: What the puk? Does the Martinez extension mean he’s the closer now? Or just they see him that long term and wanted to lock him up?

Justin Mason: I think it is still a job that is shared or changes hands

Scalloped Potatoes: Why are you streaming more aggressively in the early going?  Cold weather?

Justin Mason: yes

marjinwalker: Shold I be worried the Redsawks are rushing Campbell?

Justin Mason: I am not worried

Bog: How interesting is Tyler Freeman in Coors?

Justin Mason: not that interesting.

Swordmeister: Without clarity on Jared Jones’ elbow, where are you drafting him if you had to draft today?

Justin Mason: I am not drafting him

Drake: How do you feel about royce lewis’ injury situation? Stay away, even if he falls deep?

Justin Mason: I would take the risk late if I have IL spots.

Guest: Brendan Donovan or Chris Morel as my bench bat. 12 team OBP

Justin Mason: Donovan

Nick: What do you expect from Clevinger? In a 12 team mixed SV+H league, am I better off with him or someone like Brieske or Whitlock?

Justin Mason: I think I prefer Beau

Nolan Jones: How much out of a $100 budget in super deep AL only are you spending on him next week? (My league mates bid this kind of guy up A LOT).

Justin Mason: 15

Guest: was skubal/skenes at the 10/11 turn brilliant or dumb

Justin Mason: a little of both? hard to do that in a 10-team league. There is too much pitching available

Justin Mason: unfortunately that is all the time I have.

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: I am also live streaming my NFBC Auction Championship tonight and my Main Event on Wednesday night on my youtube!