Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – March 2, 2026

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Also, it is TGFBI Day for all those that celebrate!

Justin Mason: There is still a little time to get into TGFBI satellite leagues. You can register for those here: https://tgfbi.com/satellite-leagues/

Justin Mason: but they will be stopping in the next couple of days

Justin Mason: so get in now!

Vince: One stat I like for quick comparisons is secondary average. BB+ISO+Net Steals/ABs. Does FG have this stat available?

Justin Mason: I do not believe so, but we have those individually so you can calculate it yourself through the ones available

Jon: Trying to choose a final keeper in a 12-team OBP roto league with an auction draft. I’m already locked in on Hitter Ohtani ($54), Cal Raleigh ($11) and Cade Smith ($6). Who would you choose between Nolan McLean ($6), Spencer Torkelson ($6), Emmet Sheehan ($6) or Edwin Diaz ($21)?

Justin Mason: McLean

Tracy: Is Kevin McGonigle the next Jackson Holliday or Wander Franco?

Justin Mason: I think he is going to be very good. Good hit tool with power and speed. He should be a top 3 round fantasy player in the next three years.

JoJo: Is Ryan Pepiot about to turn into an ace?

Justin Mason: Im not ready to go that far, but I do think he takes a step forward

JJ: Will Colson Montgomery make enough contact to hit 40 HR?

Justin Mason: I think he could. 82% Z-contact is below league average but if he can keep it there or improve upon it, there is a ton of upside in the bat.

Points League Noob: Doing a points league for the first time; any general strategies for roster building?

Justin Mason: Stay away from streaky hitters. Look for consistency and guys that dont K too much. run the point structure though the auction calculator because each point structure is different

Davidson: I just started a fantasy dynasty league with my friends, I have the eighth pick in our inaugural draft. Assumng  Elly Cruz Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodriguez my options who should I take to build around?

Justin Mason: Carroll

Kevin: Is Miguel Vargas ready for a breakout?

Justin Mason: I dont think so.

Willie Pops Stargell: Hey Justin,  Thanks for the chats!  So informative.  Was wondering in building a bullpen, what stat(s) do you think are the most predictive or success?  Thanks

Justin Mason: Strikeout rate and walk rate.

Willie Pops Stargell: Can keep Laureano ($15) and/or Bader ($10) in deep NL only old school 4×4 (Avg., HR, SB, snd RBI) league with a $280 cap.  Any thoughts?

Justin Mason: I’d go with Laureano

Justin Mason: I dont love the offensive fit for Bader in SF

Willie Pops Stargell: Think Ronny Mauricio or Vidal Brujan is last man on Mets bench come opening day?

Justin Mason: I think Maurcio does.

Mark: 14 team OBP mixed keeper league question:
Deciding on my final keeper, which will be a hitter. Better use of funds be $4 for Hunter Goodman, $10 Herrera, $6 Cags, or $16 PCA.

Thanks for the chats!

Justin Mason: Herrera

Justin Mason: actually, give me Cags

Pistol Pete: Taking Juan Soto with my 4th pick in a 14 teamer – who do you like best to pair with? Choice are – Turner, Neto, Wood, Rooker. Was thimking of taking Rooker and then maybe Neto or Turang with 3rd pick?

Justin Mason: I would go Neto in the second

Broken bat: 4×4 1b… Aranda, Burger, Vaughn, Bell please rank, going for 20 bombs, .265 Ave. maybe 85 RBI’s.

Justin Mason: Vaughn, Aranda, Bell, Burger

Lord Thunder: What’s up with the Mets’ kid gloves spring handling of Luis Robert? Injury concerns? A total reworking?

Justin Mason: Probably just being careful because of the injury history

Guest: Lets go Sox!

Justin Mason: Let’s go Giants!

Broken bat: 9th inning 2026 chaos… auction league.. better to handcuff a bullpen coming out of auction or doe ukate on $1-$3 potential closers?

Justin Mason: depends on the level of your closer. If it’s a shakier one, I would handcuff, but more often than not, I go for the $1-3 guys

Sally: Is Aranda going to hit every day and become Vinnie P?

Justin Mason: I think he will play everyday, but I dont think he has Vinny P’s upside.

Jason: Where would you draft Schwarber in a 5×5 roto with OBP instead of AVG? Does he move into top 10?

Justin Mason: yeah, he’s top 10 in OBP

Willie Pops Stargell: Is there a pitcher who will probably not make the opening day roster that you think might be worth a flier, like Ben Brown, Carson Whisenhunt, Hayden Birdsong, Khal Stephan, etc.

Justin Mason: Ian Seymour and Connelly Early

Ken: Thanks for the chat Justin. Keeper question for 10-team 5×5. Keep 8 for up to five years. I can keep three of these four options, all at cheap round slots: Ragans for two more years, Rooker for three, deGrom for three, Agustin Ramirez for four. Looking to repeat as champ. Leaning toward dropping deGrom and cashing in on him. My other five are Soto/Caminero/Woo/Turang/Kurtz.

Justin Mason: Rooker, Ragans and Degrom

Steve: Who are some guys that standout to you in a 5×5 with OBP instead of avg league?

Justin Mason: I am looking for guys with big avg/obp splits. The ones that are undervalued by people used to average leagues or that have a better floor because of the format. Schwarber, Wood, Trout, Grisham, Happ, Anthony, Ozuna

Matt: 12 team roto dynasty…I had this question queued up, but with Melton news, maybe it answers itself….I have Zebby, Messick and Melton as cheap holdovers with a very solid rotation of SPs. I should probably only keep 2 of those 3 as fringe guys….Melton has to go, right?

Justin Mason: yeah, melton goes

Justin Mason: Love Messick and Zebby though

Justin Mason: two of my more drafted guys this year

2B or Bust: Better 2B strategy in an auction league with keepers (so no Turang or Maikel): bid big on one of the stars (Marte or Jazz) or go cheaper and try to ride out the season with someone like Hoerner, Altuve Polanco or Albies?

Justin Mason: So I have been going with Hoerner a lot or waiting and just taking one of the cheap options like Baty or Keith.

Corey Seager’s Silver Bullet Band: Targeting Corey Seager in an auction league but I want to make sure I have a viable backup for his inevitable IL trip, who do you like best as a handcuff? Thinking Edwards or Stott for SB

Justin Mason: Edwards out of those two.

More Like Turd Base: Pick one at 3B in an OBP roto league: Machado or Riley

Justin Mason: MAchado

Juan Thos: How many games do you think will be canceled next year due to the lockout?

Justin Mason: 80

Broken bat: Have you noticed what Abel for Twins has done following his Sept 25 outings… hasn’t walked a batter in 6 innings, struck out 11.:

Justin Mason: I am really intrigued by him. I hope they give him a shot in the rotation

Jason: Where are you taking Carroll amongst OF with everything g we

Justin Mason: I am still taking him fifth or sixth

Lord Thunder: Will Mark Vientos be on the Mets’ MLB roster at the end of the regular season?

Justin Mason: I dont think so

Willie Pops Stargell: Thanks so much for answering my questions!  Is there any reclamation SP project that is not a waste of a pick, from the batch of Buehler, Marquez, Urquidy, Sandoval, Fedde, Kolek, or Walker?

Justin Mason: not really

You down with MPE?: Please rank these MI/CI eligible players for an OBP league? Keith, Donovan, Durbin, Castro, J Smith, Correa

Justin Mason: Keith, Durbin, Donovan, Castro, Correa, Smith

Willie Pops Stargell: Do you guys keep stats on chats – most questions answered per minute?  Do you think that you could be aided by AI or is it a strictly Dwight Schrute vs. DM Infinity or John Henryesque battle to the death?

Justin Mason: I really should because I do think I answer more questions per chat than most lol. I rally try to get through them. I don’t like AI personally lol

Justin Mason: Point awarded!

Yuniesky Betancourt: Can you remind us of the 80th percentile targets for each 5×5 category in a 15-team Draft Champions style league?

Justin Mason: I dont have the DC ones handy, but the Main Event’s ones are:

Runs
Home Runs
RBI
Stolen Bases
Batting Average
1,059
308
1,034
184
0.2564

Strikeouts
Wins
Saves
ERA
WHIP
1,370
90
67
3.61
1.18

Justin Mason: that formatted weird, sorry

Sammy: Is Hunter Brown a ratio ace or a high quality volume play?

Justin Mason: I think he is a ratio ace. Would be fine starting my rotation with him

Gary Blue: Would you take Junior Caminero or Julio Rodriguez in a dynasty league?

Justin Mason: Caminero

MPE question pt 2: Forgot to include Baty in that group of MI/CI guys in OBP leagues, where would he fall in?

Justin Mason: he would be at the top for me

Johnny: Who’s your most rostered/targeted OF in drafts so far?

Justin Mason: Brenton Doyle

Jeff: Just casually reading thru this…. You think 80 games will be canceled next year??? Right before tv deals will be negotiated? That’s seems crazy to me

Justin Mason: if they cant reach an agreement on a cap or floor, I think it is very possible we lose that or more

Bichette Please: We’re starting Bo Bichette at 3B instead of SS right

Justin Mason: I think so

Willie Pops Stargell: You definitely do get through more questions – I’d say almost twice as much on a good day.  Also, no ducking of questions, which is also quite impressive.

Justin Mason: I really try and do my best to answer everyone’s questions. Today is a little slower because TGFBI kicks off in an hour lol

rizzuto: Miami OF Marsee worth a spot in a 10-team points league?

Justin Mason: absolutely

Lopez Dispenser: Otto Lopez or JJ Wetherholt as a MI in a 12-team roto lg?

Justin Mason: give me the upside of Wetherholt

Thanks Justin: Does Vaughn Grissom win any PT in LAA and what do you think of him? Love the Sleeper and Bust on Youtube. Between you and Paul, who is the sleeper and who is the bust?

Justin Mason: I dont think he does initially but that is a team loaded with health risk. He will find the time at some point. I am clearly the bust.

Justin Mason: Mostly because I never sleep

Willie Pops Stargell: On a side note, I am truly amazed with the rapid rate you have been ripping through these questions with quality, decisive, and responsive answers.  What is your secret of productivity?

Justin Mason: Caffine

Julio: Is $41 too much to keep Julio Rodriguez in a 12 team OBP league? ($260 cap)

Justin Mason: I dont think so. I think that is likely a fair price. You can always check if that is what the auction calculator thinks too.

The Ides of March: Doing my first 14 team mixed league draft this year. I’ve never been in a league larger than 12 teams, and I was wondering if / how drafting strategy changes. Do you push players up due to scarcity? Does when you draft starters & relievers change?

Justin Mason: I think the biggest difference should be your risk tolerance. The wire is much thinner and there is more reason to be safe at the top of your draft. Taking high upside early is fun, but avoid the riskier players up top. Starting pitching and relief pitching does go faster. There are really big drop offs at 2B and OF.

Johnny5Alive: Nl only. Dynasty, 24 man roster, $270 cap. I have McLean at 13 but can only keep him this year, and $5 Sasaki who can be kept for a couple of years. Have an opportunity to turn that into a keepable misiorioski $5  and marsee $15 who can also only be kept for this year. Should I?

Justin Mason: I want McLean

Need help: I have Junior Caminero in a dynasty league…today I was offered Corbin Carrol for him… should I accept?

Justin Mason: That’s really tough. I think it would depend on the rest of my roster. They are right next to each other in terms of value imo. In a vacuum, I lean Caminero

Prospectpalooza: Are either of Griffin or McGonigle worth drafting at the moment in a 12-teamer?

Justin Mason: Griffin might be, but McGonigle is not yet

Aaron: Is there a list of (or do you have thoughts on) players the ABA strike zone (based total height, not height when taking a stance) will help and hurt the most?

Justin Mason: That is a great question, but I have no idea.

Wood: Is Louis Varland the Jays next shutdown closer?

Justin Mason: He is not

BP: How would you value Schwellenbach in a dynasty?

Justin Mason: I still love him, but you probably won’t see him be valuable in dynasty until 2028

Trent Grisham: How many games will I be the yankees lead-off hitter for in 2026?

Justin Mason: 70-80

Aranda the World in 80 Days: Who do you prefer of Aranda, Contreras, Burleson or Torkelson at 1B in an OBP league?

Justin Mason: Contreras

Wood: Any hope for Bobby Miller or is he a drop in dynasty leagues?

Justin Mason: yeah, you can drop him

Trade advice: 12 Team AL-Only Keeper 5×5 roto, 260 budget: $5 Grisham and Noah Schultz (taxi squad) for Shane Smith $6 and faab. There’s risk on both sides here, but seems even, no?

Justin Mason: that feels even

Jason: Gunnar, Tucker, Carroll, Tatis, or Vlad in 12tm 5×5 OBP ?

Justin Mason: Tucker

Ben: 12 team H2H, 10 keeper league. Too much risk to keep Bryce Miller? Other options are Ian Happ, Steele, Reynaldo. Or trying to trade for a Pepiot, Altuve

Justin Mason: trade for Pepiot

KG2.0: im in a dynasty league and my pitching staff is filled with post-prospect mediocrity.  How would you rank Gore, Taj Bradley, Mize, Singer, and Pfaadt?  Which, if any, could you see separating from the group

Justin Mason: Gore, Singer, Mize, Pfaadt, Bradley

Noel: Okay, niche question time. I’m in a h2h 30-team AL/NL only league, winner of each league plays the other in a world series. 7×7 with QS OBP SLG SVHD K/9 and K/BB. It’s insane and fun. 5-9 keepers, keep forever. Have to chose between Jakob Marsee and Bryan Reynolds as my last guy in NL. Rest of the offense is Will Smith, Machado, Dansby, and Shohei. They’re pretty close in pretty much every standard ranking, but auction calc with my settings and The Bat X has Reynolds OF17 and Marsee OF34. Do you think the difference between them is that big? Am I buying too deep into Marsee’s small sample and Reynolds’ down year if I keep Marsee?

Justin Mason: I am buying into Marsee and I think the projection systems are missing the gains he made in the hit tool last year, so I go him

Willie Pops Stargell: Is there any SP prospect out there, that could pull a Woo (Great Grimm character), go from good but unheralded prospect to top SP?  Follow-up, what qualities that Woo has do you think drove this somewhat under the radar success?

Justin Mason: Honestly, my prospect knowledge isn’t good enough to answer this question.

I think for Woo, it was a combination of injury issues and lack of secondary stuff coming up that kept him under the radar. As he developed, he was able to build off of the good fastball

Shane Smith: Do we believe in the underlying metrics (suggesting he’s close to / is what he is, or do we think there’s more here to unlock?

Justin Mason: I think what we saw last year is who he is.

Lord Thunder: How many games does productive, but oft-injured Max Muncy (LAD) play this season?

Justin Mason: 140

Justin Mason: need more questions!!!

Lord Thunder: By the end of the regular season, will Justin Martinez be closing games for Arizona?

Justin Mason: I wouldnt count on it. Too unpredictable coming back from injury

Edwin Uceta: Keep in al only saves plus holds at $3? How worried are we about the murky tampa bullpen in SOLDs leagues?

Justin Mason: I am more worried about the shoulder

Hip hip Jorge: What feels like a fair price for Jorge Polanco in an auction draft

Justin Mason: depends on the format and depth of league

Guest: 5×5 roto 12 team where each pick can be retained 3 rds higher the following year – 38 rds.  I need to rank these young OFs for the next 5 years.  Benge>Carson Benge>Emm Rodrg>Cam Smith>Dyl Beavers>Ry Waldschmidt>Jacob Melton>Zach Cole>Veen>ECart.

JD: Sorry for hitting send too quickly on the young OF question.   What would you change?

Justin Mason: Cam Smith, Beavers, Rodriguez, Waldenschmidt, Benge, Metlon, Cole,

Wu Tang Killer Albies: Is Albies too risky a play at 2B in a 12-team OBP league?

Justin Mason: no, but just be ready to move on quickly in a 12

Salty: Congrats on your hamate holding up throughout this busy season!  Did you take any precautions, like preemptively wearing a wrist sleeve, maybe asking Jen to handle all of the recent driving (or skip the “10 and 2” and steer one-handed?

Justin Mason: Lots of breaks and and relaxing after march lol.

Justin Mason: point awarded

doc: grayson rodriguez
reid detmers
zebby mathews
i can only keep one AL only

Justin Mason: Zebby

Pete: I imagine you are tired of talking about Hamate injuries but on average how far are you dropping Lindor and Carroll?

Justin Mason: into the mid second round in a 15

Justin Mason: so like pick 18-24 ish

Pistol Pete: Hey Justin – Favorite SP out of Joe Ryan, George Kirby, Freddy Peralta, Eury Perez, Kyle Bradish as your SP #1.

Justin Mason: Kirby

Ok one more: How many PA you think Grish gets this season?

Justin Mason: 500

Justin M.: Torn on some keepers for my 5×5 NL only roto league. Rosters are 2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI/CI, 5 OF, 1 UTL, 9 P. No bench. You can keep up to nine guys with escalators and a maximum of three years on your roster. Here are my options:

– James Wood ($4; year three)
– Eury Perez ($2; year two)
– Mason Miller ($7; year two)
– Hunter Greene ($20: year three)
– Sandy Alcantara ($3; year three)
– Ian Happ ($1; year two)
– Bryan Reynolds ($2: year two)
– Sal Stewart ($1; year two)
– Zac Gallen ($3; year two)
– Abner Uribe ($1; year two)
– Ivan Herrera ($3; year three)

Curious as to the nine you’d recommend keeping. Keepers are due Friday. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Wood, Miller, Alcantara, Stewart, Uribe, Greene, Herrera, Eury, Happ

SS conundrum: Betts, Adames or Pena in a 12-teamer at SS?

Justin Mason: Betts

Lord Thunder: What do you know about Duncan Davitt of the CWS, who Paul just stuffed into his top 190 SP rankings? I’ve never heard of him and roster resource has him currently in the triple-A rotation.

Justin Mason: I havent heard of him either lol. Ill def go watch some film tho

Insert Witty Name Here: Does James Woods k% scare you at all?

Justin Mason: yeah, but I think he will be fine. He will just be incosistent because of it

Salty: Any sleeper teams that you are feeling this year?  I think I’m going to take a shot with Texas for the NL West.  Maybe it’s not that much of a deep choice, but I really like the rotation, and they probably need Langford to take that next step to superstardom.  Tons of injury risk with that team, but maybe they’ll get luck on that front this year.

Justin Mason: Texas for sure. KC in the AL cent, and Pittsburgh in the NL Cent

Guest: 6×6 obp, hr, r, rbi, sb, batter ks
Standard pitching plus holds
12 teams

Keep 4 (round)

Sandy (11)
Soderstrom (15)
Eury (16)
Ivan Herrera (16, C eligible)
A. Uribe (16)

Justin Mason: Eury, Herrera, Sandy, Soderstrom

Auction Budg: What’s the maximum amount of budget you’re comfortable with spending on keepers going into an auction? What’s the least amount of money you’ve brought to an auction that you can  remember? (And how did that work out for ya??)

Justin Mason: I honestly dont care as much about how much as the value I am getting. I am fine entering an auciton with a bunch of money gone or a bunch of money to spend as long as the money I am spending is at good values

Jett: Can J.T. Ginn force the issue with the Athletics? Can adopting a windup be a cure for mediocracy?

Justin Mason: I dont buy it in Sacramento. It is just too dangerous of an enviroment.

Insert Witty Name Here: What vets are you subscribing to the “I’d rather cut one year early instead of one year too late.”? Mine has been J-Ram for the last three years.  Oops.

Justin Mason: Altuve for me this year. I usually dont jump off of guys like that though

W: Which one of these keeper options would you drop in 12 team, H2H categories? I’m torn: $17 Kurtz, $16 Sale, $11 Cristopher Sanchez, $5 E. Suarez, $4 Buxton, $3 Perdomo, $1 Bradish, $1 Marsee

Justin Mason: Buxton

Dan: Which risks do you feel more comfortable accepting, assuming equivalent projections – a veteran with lots of data that they’re good, but also a lot of history that they’re gonna get hurt at some point or a 2nd/3rd year guy that we still haven’t yet totally figured out their true skill level

Justin Mason: the 2nd/3rd year guy

Justin Mason: I try not to mess with the injury ones unless the price drops

Guardian Fan: In a 10 team, AL only scoresheet keeper league.  Ian Seymour of Gavin Lux?  2B is quite thin in my opinion.  Seymour may start in AAA.

Justin Mason: Seymour

Prospect Strategy: What do you value more in prospects (for keeper / dynasty type leagues): proximity to MLB or skills / talent?

Justin Mason: Talent

doc: Hi there Justin-if you dont mind my asking-where are yiou physically located? good weather?
how would you rank
arrighetti
mize
messick
jacob lopez
boyle
is bradish better than them enough to trade for?

Justin Mason: I am in northern california! A bit north of SF. Weather is great rn.

Messick, Mize, Lopez, Boyle, Arrighetti

Adenolith: 8-team h2h cats league with $300 budget and 30 players drafted (14 hitters, 10 pitch, 6 bn). My values are giving $65 for Ohtani and 62 for Judge. In your opinion, is that too high or would you be willing to go even higher?

Justin Mason: In an 8-team that seems right. I might even go higher, but trust your values

Rob: Any spring training results that have you moving certain players up or down your draft board?  Anyone you are downgrading, upgrading, have on your radar as a sleeper would be helpful – thanks!

Justin Mason: its too early to tell, but I am watching team stolen bases, walk rate, and strikeout rate

Schilling & Pence: Do you think that if healthy, Stephenson is the primary closer in LAA

Justin Mason: yes, but I dont believe he will be

Early Season Streamers: Who are some of the SP’s you’re targeting late in drafts to help you in week 1-2 that you plan on dropping to grab those pitchers that pop up early in the year?

Justin Mason: so usually I am gambling on RPs in the first couple of weeks to see if get lucky with a closer. Some of my later SP targets have been Messick, Zebby, Leiter, Cameron and Eflin though

Justin Mason: That’s all the time I have! please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!