Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – June 17th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Mike: Are you starting Cole without knowing if he is pitching (and with and pitch count limit)?

Justin Mason: Probably only in deeper formats where you don’t have a ton of options. Like I am starting him in a 15-team league where it is between him and Trevor Rogers, but in a shallower league I would probably not do it.

Mike: Do you trust Buehler or Miller

Justin Mason: I trust Miller, but not Buehler so much right now. Guys coming off of Tommy John often struggle with command and he definitely is right now.

Mike: Do you trust Buehler or Miller more at Coors or just go with an RP?

Justin Mason: I would go Miller

Mike: Stanek or Green for a saves stash?

Justin Mason: Stanek for me

Guest: Looking to upgrade my offense, is a package of Yordan and Crochet enough for Juan Soto?

Justin Mason: Definitely

KCC26: timing is everything!  decided last week that I had enough pitching to move some for offense.  traded away Imanaga only to watch Bradish/Yamamoto go down in the days that followed.  no question, just venting

Justin Mason: Pitching is so rough right now with all the injuries. You can pretty much never have enough

Why not Zoidberg?: Last closer spot for a weekly league – would you start Hader, A. Diaz, or E. Diaz?

Justin Mason: Hader

Adenolith: Shallow league with some decent options – would you take any of B. Doyle, N. Gonzales, Caballero, Casas (injury stash), over Joey Ortiz? Who’s your pick?

Justin Mason: Depends on the format, but in roto, I would take Doyle. In a points league, I go Gonzales

Heliot Ramos: Flash in the pan or surprise breakout? How do you expect him to perform ROS?

Justin Mason: The underlying numbers say this is a hot streak, but the Giants should just let him play so I would ride it for now.

Adenolith: I recognize this is a great problem to have, but I need to add another closer to my weekly league and need to sit a starter. Who’d you bench?  Grayson @ Hou, Sale @ NYY, Flaherty v CHW, Lodolo @ Pit, Skubal @ Atl, Ragans @ Oak, Crochet @ Hou?

Justin Mason: Crochet at Hou

Justin Mason: Amazing problem to have tbh

Paradise: Thoughts on Shane Baz arriving this week in Tampa?  No need for Rays to waste any innings on that arm in the minors.  He has to get the call agreed?

Justin Mason: I would hope so, but I always worry about the Tampa process.

Winker Taylor Soler Spy: 12T 5×5 OBP redraft. Need to drop one: Winker, Springer, Castellanos. Who you got?

Justin Mason: Winker

Catch it: I’m in a shallow points league. Thought Jeffers was a steal in early may but he’s cooled sooooo much. Drop for Danny  Jansen or keibert Ruiz?

Justin Mason: I would for Jansen, but it is a pretty lateral move.

seth: traded gil+tyler black for mookie+fairbanks, now am sad

Justin Mason: Mookie going down is devastating. Great process, poor results.

Greenmtnboys: A. Pages 6 games 4 at Coors or Ward 5 games 2 at LAD?

Justin Mason: Pages

Moundhill: Would you rather have Reynaldo Lopez or Bryan Woo ROS?

Justin Mason: Lopez. I am worried about Woo’s arm

Drop One: Zach Neto (9HR/9SB) or David Hamilton (.340OBP/18SB)

Justin Mason: Hamilton

arcM: Hi Justin, I’m comfortably in 2nd place in a 12T H2H points league and starting to look to the end of the season. I’ve been offered Gallen for Santander. The wire has some decent OF options and few starters available. Should I snap this deal off (pending Gallen’s sim game tomorrow)?

Justin Mason: yes

Bruh: I know I can’t replace Mookie, but what do you think of David Hamilton in a points lg?

Justin Mason: As long as you get a fair amount of points for his steals, he is a nice pick up. The stolen bases will be there, but other things may slow down.

JW: Should I continue to hold onto Josh Lowe? Wilyer Abreu, C. Cowser, Rafaela, Z. Neto, or Jake McCarthy would be the alternatives (12tm 5×5 redraft)

Justin Mason: I don’t mind dropping him. I think I would grab Abreu

larry: would you prefer neto or b. lowe all things equal? 12 tm h2h with traditional categories

Justin Mason: I think I take Neto but it is close

Deep league: I was on the brink of dropping Miguel Vargas prior to the Betts injury.  Vargas has to get time now, correct?  I don’t know why the Dodgers continue to trot out Taylor.  Let Vargas play!  Especially in Colorado!!

Justin Mason: I really hope they do, but it is not like he can play short.

Rank these SS: In a 12 team 5×5 OBP league. Neto, Hamilton, Caballero

Justin Mason: Hamilton, Caballero, Neto

Anon: Can you please rank Chourio, Vargas, Vientos, Buffon ROS?

Justin Mason: Chourio, Vientos, Vargas

Guest: will Adell ever get back on track

Justin Mason: The underlying skills have all reverted back to what they always have been so I don’t have a lot of hope

Tim: hello, 14t H2H dynasty 7×7 (standard 5, HLD, QS)…I’ll need to make a move when Minter returns, the current pen is Clase, Suárez, Abreu, Payamps, Stanek; my worst SP are Garrett, Povich, Thorpe. Who goes when Minter returns?

Justin Mason: Thorpe

Coors Cues: Shallow points league. You throwing Bobby Miller or Stone (who has been fantastic  at limiting hard contact) at coors?

Justin Mason: Depends on my other options. I don’t usually like to use guys right off the IL in shallow league.

JW: Thanks for the help every week. Would you start Jon Gray on  a 2 start week (NYM, KC) or Pfaadt (vs WSH) need to make the biggest gains in ERA and WHIP in a 12tm 5×5

Justin Mason: Gray

Kevin: In a points league would you go with Paxton 2 starts one at Rockies or 1 start Arrighetti, Webb, or reliever Duran. Thanks.

Justin Mason: Webb

Help me: Two of my four keepers were Strider and Acuna (Cole was another). I’m 4-8 and my last four losses have I’ve been the second highest scoring team in the league, just got out down time and time again… how do I find the strength to keep trying??

Justin Mason: That is rough, but remember that other people in your league will give up or turn their attention to football soon. Keep grinding!

larry: on a scale of 1-10, whats your concern level on machado? dude has shown no pop and isnt stealing either

Justin Mason: like a 3. Most of the underlying numbers are in line with last season. Just hitting the ball on the ground too much. I think he will be fine and have a good summer.

seth: kutter @cin in mid-90s heat, cole off the IL vBAL, or verlander maybe @CHW, (or hoffman/estrada)?

Justin Mason: I think I lean Verlander because of the matchup here

Canadian Goose: Horwitz can be considered valuable in a deep league – would you agree?  I like the on-base, and ability to hit for average.

Justin Mason: If he keeps playing and hitting at the top of the lineup, he would be a sneaky source of runs and average.

Dan: B Lowe or Drury ROS at 2B?  OBP and SLG format (not AVG)

Justin Mason: Drury

Mike: What do you do with Mullins and Springer?  Drop?  I have to start at least one if they are on my roster.

Justin Mason: In a shallow league, you can drop Mullins.

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: J Man! Need help!

I just got offered Houck for my R. Lewis. H2H points league, redraft. Is this wise, with bregman as my backup at 3B? Lewis has singlehandedly raised my lineup production to an acceptable level, but two of my “surefire aces”… i.e. Pablo Lopez, and Jared Jones, have been sucking badly of late.

Justin Mason: I don’t mind this deal at all. Love Lewis, but how long before he is hurt again and Bregman is a really nice in house replacement.

Bruh: Crochet, Keller or Gil this week in a points league?

Justin Mason: Gil

Tim: How long does Vaughn need to perform around this level before it’s not just a hot streak? Statcast, ZIPS, Steamer all seem positive.

Justin Mason: I wrote about him last night for an article on fantasy pros. His underlying numbers are great in June. Probably just a hot streak, but one that can sustain for a while and maybe he gets traded to a better team at the deadline

larry: will david hamilton belong on a 12 team roster once his babip cools off?

Justin Mason: I think he will just for the SBs alone. It will all depend on playing time.

Guest: Goldie for Cease? Who do you like?

Justin Mason: Cease

Bob: Hello Justin! Please help ROS: Littell, Arrighetti or Paddack? N. Lowe, O’Hearn or Locklear? Thank you!

Justin Mason: Littell and Lowe

Mike: Is this a lost season for Castellanos?  Trade him for an emerging pitcher like Hunter Brown or Houck?

Justin Mason: I think he will be better, but just not the guy we have seen in the past, but if I could get houck for him I am doing that in a heartbeat

larry: are we witnessing another joc pederson hot streak? or something better?

Justin Mason: hot streak and good usage by the Diamondbacks

Randy: Bichette was dropped in 13 team mixed redraft.  Buy-low or lost cause for ’24?  Thanks

Justin Mason: I think he will be better, but maybe not enough for a 13 team league tbh

Chi-town: I’m currently stashing Neris, but I don’t even know if it’s worth doing that.  Guy is guaranteed of a run or two per appearance, and you maybe get a save in the process

Justin Mason: He has been sitting on my bench in a few leagues, but I am close to dropping him because he hurts more than he helps. I think it is a matter of time before the Cubs make a move

larry: are you stashing noelvi marte? think he can be a legit difference maker down the stretch?

Justin Mason: I would definitely stash him in spots where I can do that. I think he has a lot of upside and should play regularly.

Jimmy: Do we know Dominguez injury at AAA?  Is it significant?  About how long till he’s promoted?

Justin Mason: I haven’t seen an update yet, so I am just waiting and seeing

larry: assuming cinci keeps him at the bottom of the order, are the best days of india in the past?

Justin Mason: Probably

Dusty: Neto or Swanson? Swanson has been painful.

Justin Mason: Still swanson for me. I just still believe in the talent.

Jimbo: Should I be ditching Sean Murphy in a 5×5 league with OBP instead of AVG? His performance has been horrible but the ROS projections are beautiful

Justin Mason: depends on your other options at catcher. In a one catcher league, you can probably find better.

Ron: Minter or Chad Green in Saves+Holds format?

Justin Mason: Green

larry: is tylor megill a must roster in 12 tm leagues? comparables would be morton, herz, parker, mikolas

Justin Mason: I think he is. I would take him over all of those guys ROS

Kevin: In a points league would you go with Paxton with 2 starts (@Rockies, LAA) or Arrighetti, Webb for 1 start or reliever Duran (Minn.) Thanks

Justin Mason: Webb

Sp ranks: Can you rank taj bradley, paddack, Pfaadt, and Christian Scott ROS in a points league with QS counting as much as wins. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Pfaadt, Scott, Bradley, Paddack,

O’stradamus: Pick 2 of 4 ROS. Buxton, Winker, Nimmo and Ward. 10 team H2H OBP instead of AVG

Justin Mason: Ward and Nimmo

Not my usual name: In a 12 tm OBP/QS league traded George Kirby and Crochet for Elly. Too much?

Justin Mason: Oh man, I think it is

Guest: Burlson or Varsho ros? 6×6 (hits and avg)

Justin Mason: Varsho, but I have an undying love for the dude

IL Stashes: Who’s the best stash (redraft): Romano, Devin Williams, Robbie Ray

Justin Mason: Williams

Sammy: Is Langford starting to come around?  Do you think we see some power this season?

Justin Mason: I think we should. The underlying have been ok. I do worry that the pop may not be prodigious, but I think he is a second half breakout type of guy

KCC26: feels more challenging to predict closers in waiting these days… any clear saves stashes to start thinking about as we head into summer?  Hunter Harvey? others?

Justin Mason: I think it is more challenging this year. Really depends on who sells. Harvey makes sense. Justin Slaten in Boston, AJ Puk in Miami, Colin Holderman in Pittsburgh

Pistol Pete: Hi Justin,

Justin Mason: Hi!

Pistol Pete: Is Nate Pearson a MUST add now for the Jays?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is a must add. I think the Blue Jays go to green

Moose Pajamas: What to do with Adolis Garcia? In a dynasty league I could trade him for pitching which I need, and his spot would be replaced by Nolan Jones or Wilyer Abreu.

Justin Mason: I don’t mind moving him for pitching if I have Abreu, but I also think he will be better so you would be selling low

Vision: I was ahead of the curve on Horwitz, please tell me your thoughts on if I lucked out on doing the same with Ben Rice?  I have some bench spots to spare in a deep league so I was trying to be pro-active in stashing him.  Possibly the Rizzo injury opens up an opportunity?

Justin Mason: I don’t know that the Yankees bring him up. I think they are more likely to roll with what they have and then try and make a deadline deal for a first baseman like Goldy.

Pull up your Sox: Paul Skenes is a top ___ dynasty asset

Justin Mason: 15-20

Guest: Civale @ Minnesota or Bobby Miller @ Colorado this week? Need one more start to hit my limit and it’s come down to those two

Justin Mason: Miller

Kevin: Is Bo Bichette worth a drop now for Jackson Merrill or Jeremy Pena in a points league. Thanks

Justin Mason: I would drop for Merrill

Guest: In an 8T dynasty roto, is Pete Alonso and Volpe for Jazz and Bichette an overpay if I have a hug surplus in HR and have Olson, Naylor and Casas already? No one is biting on Alonso for some reason, and I could use the SS and OF help.

Justin Mason: yes, it is an overpay for sure

Dan: Crochet and Yordan for Bobby Witt?

Justin Mason: I would do that for Witt

KC Pain: Jonathan Cannon or Tobias Myers a better lotto ticket?

Justin Mason: Myers

Broken Bat: Perdomo back with Snakes, Lawler had start at 3b with Reno and then pulled hammy. Carroll was showing signs of life until tweak throwing a baseball. The snakes with the Dodger injuries can still win that division. What you say?

Justin Mason: I think that it would be pretty tough, but it could happen. Wouldn’t bet on it.

SP Cut: Cole coming back, plus I have Wheeler & Glasnow. Need to cut either Nola or Pablo…who stays?

Justin Mason: ugh, can you trade one? I would cut Nola if I had to.

KCBBq: Is Vaughn Grissom Boston’s 2B this year and in 2025.

Justin Mason: I think this year may be a wash for him, but he should be in 2025.

Guest: How much value does a catcher like Adley have in a dynasty categories league? Is he worth giving up a guy like Jared Jones?

Justin Mason: depends on if it is a one or two catcher league and the size of the league. I think Adley gives you a pretty big advantage at the position depending on the size of the league, so I wouldn’t likely do it unless it is a shallow 1-catcher format.

KC Pain: Have Burger Mayo Fry Cabbage on roster….too bad no Phil Coke….is Seth Beer still in minors?

Justin Mason: The team name you can build with this is amazing

Why not Zoidberg?: I’m not used to seeing my team hitting home runs, but the last few days have been a pleasant surprise. Is MLB finally using a different ball?

Justin Mason: I will check with Jason Collette. He has been tracking this

KC Pain: Been holding Julien and Manning in deep dynasty and eating roster space.  Time to cut?

Justin Mason: I think you can cut Manning

IL Stache: With Yamamoto hitting the IL, I can jettison Eloy Jimenez or Lars Nootbar. Who’s the better stash, for this season, and indefinitely? (True dynasty with no salaries.)

Justin Mason: Prefer Nootbaar

Guest: 12T 6×6 keeper as the 105 in a 120-115-105-90 top 4 – scale of 1-10 how much should keeper considerations matter

Justin Mason: So for me, I am pretty black and white when it comes to keeper leagues. If I am competing, I don’t worry about it nearly as much. I want to win. If I am rebuilding, then it is a huge priority. So it all depends on where your team is.

KC Pain: 18 team dynasty 5×5 would you trade Imanaga and J Ortiz for Stanton Schmidt D. Williams and Keller?  (need power and pitching depth and have 2B/3B covered)

Justin Mason: I don’t think I would. I think Imanaga is a stud

Vince: Hi! 12-tm H2H category. Olson or Paddack worth holding — this week and beyond? Thanks!

Justin Mason: I think Olson is

KCBBq: What do the Blue Jays do for a closer if both Garcia and Romano are lost for the season? Either Pearson or Green the answer or do they trade for one?

Justin Mason: I think Green is the guy

JLPicard: Hey, your thoughts on Pepiot long term in a 6×6 AL Only. Thanks for the chats

Justin Mason: I really like Pepiot. The skills are really good even if the command has been a little shakier recently. He is definitely a guy I think can emerge in the second half and beyond

KC Pain: Would you gamble on keeping Dejong and selling Bichette in a 18 team 6×6 dynasty? Ive had some solid offers but am shallow at SS.

Justin Mason: Really depends on the return. Dejong may end up as another team’s back up SS at the deadline

leosteward: Just traded Ryan McMahon for Austin Riley. Huge upgrade or lateral move?

Justin Mason: HUGE upgrade

KCBBq: Who’s Boston’s SS in 2025…..Hamilton or Mayer…..or someone else?

Justin Mason: I hope it is Mayer

Hot Corner: Do you prefer Maikel Garcia or Royce Lewis ROS?

Justin Mason: Lewis because his upside is so great, but I love Garcia too

Why not Zoidberg?: Start 2 – Friedl, Langford, O. Cruz, or Joey Ortiz. Who’d you take?

Justin Mason: Friedl and Cruz

Brian: Have Alvarez and Jeffers….who do I ride ROS?

Justin Mason: Alvarez

Jon: Stashing G Williams on IR.  Are you optimistic he can contribute this season?  Would likely have to replace either Verlander or Ober?  League counts QS, IP, and K/9.

Justin Mason: I am not optimistic at all. I think this ends very poorly

Justin Mason: Hope I am wrong tho

Chuck: Serious question: Why don’t fantasy sites/analysts use K/GS? If I’m considering picking up an SP, I care about how many K’s he gets per start, not per inning or percentage of batters faced.

Justin Mason: I think that is a good question. I can’t really answer for the sites but as an analyst, I use what is easily available because I have a ton of research, writing and podcasting available. I would love if things like that were more readily available though

KC Pain: 2B prospects – Jung Norby Yorke how would you rank?

Justin Mason: Jung, Yorke, Norby

Donnie Baseball: Is there any hope for Arenado, Torres and Arozarena this season? There killing my team.

Justin Mason: All three of these are pretty grim profiles. Arenado’s underlying numbers say he is just hitting the ball a lot less hard which is concerning at his age. Torres’ underlying numbers are terrible. Arozarena is at least hitting for some power and stealing bases still, but the underlying numbers are still pretty gross. Wish I had better news for you

KCBBq: With Jansen only on a 1 year deal and Hendriks on a 2 year deal is Hendriks worth a $1 stash for 2025 in a 12 team AL only H2H keeper league?

Justin Mason: Yes, I think he could definitely be the guy next season

DOWN GOES MOOKIE!!: The Dodgers have to be on the phone to the Sox about DeJong, right? Been riding the hot streak and ready to drop at any time but now I might just hold.

Justin Mason: That is a good point. Definitely could be a match there.

Justin Mason: Alright still have a bunch of questions and not much time so I will speed round things the best I can

Not my usual name: Re: Kirby/Crochet for Elly trade: if I added Mitchell Parker because of the 2 for 1, does it make it any better? I agree it was too much, my process was that I’m hedging on Crochet not staying healthy.

Justin Mason: Not really

Jonhenry: Eloy (short sample) looks like he’s decreased his K%, upped BB%, 92mph exit velo…..What are your expectations ROS?

Justin Mason: The biggest issue with Eloy is his health. I don’t trust him to stay on the field.

Guest: Who is most likely to become Cubs’ closer? Does Alzolay have value this year in redraft?

Justin Mason: I wouldn’t count on him to get back

Tim: will B Garrett get it together or is it lost season?  K-BB is great but overall performance stinks

Justin Mason: I think the skills are still really good. I am starting him for his two-start week this week and am hopeful he is good ROS

Merchant: In need of pitching: would Yordan for Grayson Rodriguez be fair?

Justin Mason: I think you should be able to get a bit more

Chip: Picked Friedl off the WW. Do you think his ’23 production is repeatable, at least on a per-game basis?

Justin Mason: I think it definitely is but I am a huge supporter of his

Colton: Soderstrom finally putting some of the power on display, how much viability in 1 catcher leagues? Playing time is almost a lock at this point as a non-catching, catcher

Justin Mason: Where he is a catcher, he has a ton of value because of the playing time.

Little Steven: Any reason to be hopeful for a Bello turnaround?

Justin Mason: Honestly, I don’t know that there is. I still enjoy watching him pitch and think long term there might be something there, but he is very hittable

Kate: Jonathan Cannon anything to get excited about if he sticks in the White Sox rotation?  Looked great last time out.

Justin Mason: Maybe in deeper leagues, but the White Sox are so bad that he needs to be great to overcome the lack of win potential

Nate: Any thoughts on how you’d rank B Lowe/Nicky G/Ortiz in a deep roto?

Justin Mason: Gonzales, Ortiz, Lowe

Kate: Do you have any hope for an MJ Melendez rebound?

Justin Mason: He definitely should be better, but maybe not the guy we thought he could be previously.

Little Steven: Please rank ROS: Povich, Arrighetti, Al Suarez

Justin Mason: Suarez, Povich,  Arrighetti

Air Yordan: I’m getting offered their J-Rod and Randy Arozarena for my Yordan. Would you take it? I think it’s fair but I don’t see a need for it

Justin Mason: yes

Kate: Michael Toglia quietly seems to be getting everyday PT with Bryant out.  With his contact rate at a tolerable level, is there something here for a 15?

Justin Mason: In the short term I think you can use him, but I don’t trust him long term because of the contact issues regressing and the playing time becoming an issue at some point

DatDudeJG: Nick Gonzales…….what do we make of him for the Pirates?  He reminds me a lot of what we saw contact wise from Matt McClain last year.  Thanks for the chat!

Justin Mason: I don’t think he has the power of McLain, but otherwise I really like the comp. He has impressed me because I initially didn’t think there was much there.

Little Steven: Most helpful in fantasy ROS: Grissom or Enm. Valdez?

Justin Mason: Valdez

FrancisFordBopesella: Can Giancarlo Stanton finish the year as a top 25 OF?  If he can stay healthy in that lineup, he has the potential to put up some big numbers.  Thanks.

Justin Mason: I think it is in the range of outcomes, but health is always an issue for Stanton.

Mike F: Traded L. Castillo for Bryce Miller yesterday in a FGpts league. Miller $1 next season, Castillo FA after this year. I think I won the trade now and for the future. Am I wrong?

Justin Mason: I am ok with this

Kate: Does Tanner Scott get moved at the deadline?  If so, what are his odds of moving somewhere where he’d continue to get save opps?  Anyone worth handcuffing in the Miami pen?

Justin Mason: I think Puk would be the guy to handcuff and I definitely think that Scott could get traded.

Kate: Underlying metrics on Tatis look great, but the surface numbers are just ok.  Just a matter of time before they catch up?

Justin Mason: Yeah, I have no worries on Tatis

Little Steven: I benched Kutter last week vs NYY and Phi and he of course had two of his better outings all season. Is he set and forget going forward?

Justin Mason: He is

Little Steven: Can Al Suarez be trusted this week @ NYY?

Justin Mason: I probably bench if I have a safer option

KC Pain: Do you think Mayo is an Oriole at deadline or a piece in a monster trade like Crochet?

Justin Mason: I hope he just becomes a regular in Baltimore but he definitely could be. He should be up already.

Chuck: Campaign to add K/GS on Fangraphs player pages.

Justin Mason: I can definitely float it but I don’t think it will happen

Justin Mason: unfortunately, I have to wrap up. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!