Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – June 16, 2025

Justin Mason: I will begin at the top of hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Matt: Weekly roto (QS) – you taking Shane Smith 23 start over any of C Sanchez, S Gray?

Justin Mason: I am not. The White Sox win probability is so low that I would take the one starts over that

Cris Kross: Hola Justin, been offered Cris Sanchez for Riley Greene in a 12T 5×5 OBP roto league. My rotation is Ray, Ober, Bubic, Peterson, Horton with Senga and Zebby on the IL. My OF is Greene, Julio, Ward, Suzuki, Wallner and Frelick (it’s a 5 OF roster). Thoughts?

Justin Mason: I think that is a fair trade. I probably would do it considering I am worried about Ober right now

Ryan Pepiot: Happy Monday!  Starting this week w/2 step at home vs Balt and Det for a 6×6 roto w/QS? Suppose to hot and humid all week at Tampa.  Alternative would be Dobbins @SF or Walter @ LAA.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Give me the two-start here

MF Luder: ROS Thairo Estrada or Colt Keith?

Justin Mason: Keith

Alex: Pick 2 — Evan Carter, Jo Adell, or Jung Ho Lee?

Justin Mason: Lee and Adell

Patience running thin: Is C. Walker cooked ? just picked him up over M. Busch since 1B has been a hole for me all season. I am still holding J. Burger as my 1B/3B backup who also has provided very little.

Justin Mason: I dont think he is cooked. Just been a long adjustment period on a new team.

Schilling & Pence: Is the Red Sox lineup now as weak as I think it is?  Can we now confidently start a #3 or #4 SP at Fenway?

Justin Mason: I think so at least until Bregman is back

bdubs: How do you decide – what is your strategy – on selecting starting pitchers in a weekly format when 2 of fairly equal quality are going head to head – last week Yamamoto v Webb, this week Boyd v Kirby? Start both or choose 1 (on what basis? Coin flip?) I did the latter last week and lost out choosing Yam.

Justin Mason: Matchups are usually the way to go. I did a panel at FPAZ years ago with Derek Carty and Eric Samulski and we all agreed that our research showed the best thing to stream is opponents strength. So this week I would go Boyd.

Sirius: Just a thought.  Judge is and has been historic.  However, I would pitch to him before Soto.  And I don’t think I’m alone.

Justin Mason: I dont think I would pitch to either tbh

Guest: did you hear about the devers trade?

Justin Mason: I DID! Made my Father’s Day!

One Must Go: Gotta cut one to pick up a pitcher stream in an OBP league: Meidroth, Stott, Muncy (the A’s one), Stowers, Shaw

Justin Mason: Muncy

JT: Can you rank the following SP RoS: Ober, B. Brown, Liberatore, Lodolo, T. Bradley

Justin Mason: Lodolo, Ober, Liberatore, Bradley, Brown

MF Luder: Maybe we are finally about to see production from Coby Mayo?

Justin Mason: I hope so but we need to see him make better contact which he has not been able to do consistently at the MAjor League level yet.

Streamer Q: Better two-start streamer this week: Liberatore (@CHW, vs CIN) or Festa (@CIN, vs MIL)?

Justin Mason: Really close, but I will take the White Sox matchup for Liberatore

PG: What’s your interest level in Casparius for this week and beyond?

Justin Mason: I really love the skills, but I don’t know if I trust the usage yet. We need to see if the Dodgers will let him go deep enough to qualify for a win or even commit to him being a starter/bulk guy before we get too excited.

Anthony: What is going on with Ober?!?! His strikeouts are way down and getting crushed recently. He obviously isn’t a drop, but are there hopes of a rebound in Ks and performance given the talent?

Justin Mason: I think he is hurt. The velo is down and has been all year and the stuff just doesn’t play as well with that loss in velocity.

Insert Witty Name Here: Any worries about Yamamoto? Or just a blip?

Justin Mason: No worries

Insert Witty Name Here: What’s your take on Lance McCullers? Are you starting him v Sactown?

Justin Mason: I am because it is a two-start week, but I don’t know that I would in daily moves leagues. Sac is just so risky. I look at McCullers like a really talented pitcher that will inevitably get hurt. I want to use his starts as often as possible because I don’t know how long he will be around for. The problem is there will be bumps in the road coming back after such a long lay off.

Matt W.: How about your Giants stealing Devers

Justin Mason: There should be a warrant issued for that type of larceny!

Justin Mason: Point awarded!

Insert Witty Name Here: Any worries about Corbin Carroll’s hammy? Also, Arozerena or Frelick in a 12 team OBP league?

Justin Mason: Not overly worried about Carroll. I’ll take Arozarena

Matt: Has Victor Scotts shine worn off in Ottoneu H2H? Seems like he can’t hit enough and SBs don’t differentiate in that format

Justin Mason: yeah, probably don’t need to hold in that format.

Insert Witty Name Here: In a 12 team OBP: my OF is Corbin, Langford, Arozerena and Frelick.  Are the latter 3 good enough for me to put Corbin on the trade block for a front line SP?

Justin Mason: Probably not

Bill Warts: Hi Justin, 12 team mixed, would you drop Edman for McLain  for MI? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Yes, I would

Anthony: I feel like Grant Holmes is a hidden gem. If he can curb that walk and homer rate, he would be a stud (his xFIP is excellent). Any chance he can control those and get his ERA down in the mid to low 3s?

Justin Mason: That’s asking a lot from him and I think it is unlikely

Salty: Thanks for all the content you provide as well as these chats,especially coming off a huge move for your team.  Thoughts on what else the Giants may do in the next 4-6 weeks before the deadline.

Justin Mason: I think this is their big move from outside the system. Maybe they bring in another smaller piece as a utility infielder or a back end starter if Verlander is going to be out too long, but I think the only other big move they might make is bringing up Bryce Eldridge to play first.

Anthony: Nimmo surging recently. Am I wrong in thinking he is an OF2/3 the rest of the year given his bat and that lineup?

Justin Mason: I definitely think he could be if healthy.

Anthony: Is semien BACK? Maybe not ALL the way back, but is he “back” to being somewhere around 90% or so of his former excellent contributing fantasy self?

Justin Mason: I think he is back to 90% of his former self.

Lord Thunder: Will Shohei Ohtani pitch at least 5 innings in any game this season?

Justin Mason: nope

Coby Mayo: When I play CLUE, I insist on being Col. Mustard

Justin Mason: Me too! Point awarded

Almost Royal: 6×6 league, how keen would you be to try and pick up Jomathan India in hopes of a rebound?

Justin Mason: I picked him up in a few leagues just for his positional flexibility. I don’t think he is going to be a stud, but as a guy who can fill in a lot of positions off your bench in a deeper league, I like him as things warm up in KC.

Cromulent: In a 15 team mixed dynasty points league trying to win now and in need of SP, have Marcelo Mayer on my bench. What would you target in terms of SP for him?

Justin Mason: I would be trying to get a top 30 starter if possible.

Peterdad: Would you start David Peterson’s two-step this week (@ATL, @PHI)?

Justin Mason: I don’t believe in a lot of Peterson has been doing, but I don’t know how you don’t start him until the regression catches up to him.

Salty: Do you think the Red Sox make Hicks the closer when healthy, or keep Harrison starting, or do both become bullpen depth?  Do either carry ROS value in a 15 team universal?

Justin Mason: I think he is bullpen depth at least for now.

Lots of IL: I’ve been hanging on to Ha-seong Kim expecting a return…better off dropping for Tyler Freeman, or wait 1 more week?

Justin Mason: Drop freeman

Senga, ya dead mon?: Roto: Soriano 2-start this week or Tylor Megill? Soriano was great last time out but I can see the Yuckees blowing him up bad… I’m fighting for 1st place but just lost Senga.

Justin Mason: Megill for me. Soriano’s 2-start is just too scary

Posey vs Breslow career stats: was 1-3 with a single, now updated to 2-4 with a HR

Justin Mason: Point awarded!

Bill Warts: Streamer today, Clarke Schmidt or Casparius as follower to Ohtani?

Justin Mason: Schmidt

Yosemite: Lodolo is facing Minnesota this week at home, where he has been quite bad. Start Warren and his two-step instead?

Justin Mason: Lodolo

Shaw Nuff?: Thank you for doing these Justin! Shaw has been slumping lately – keep him or look for other options? (In a 12 team OBP roto league)

Justin Mason: Look for other options in a redraft

Anthony: Am I crazy to think all A’s (butler, soder, rooker, Langeliers) have the chance to return massive value the next 8-10 weeks when it really gets hot in Sacramento?

Justin Mason: Absolutely! It has been a mild summer here, but it’s supposed to start heating up soon!

Hold the Rice: I’m sure I’m not the only one that loves Rice’s underlying skills, but with Stanton coming back, is this the decisive week as far as understanding whether he will be a useful fantasy asset going forward? I have him on my bench in a 10tm H2H league and I suppose I could use his spot to stream if his playing time completely vanishes…

Justin Mason: He has been brutal in June but I think a lot of it has been bad luck. I think he will be fine, but the Yankees will give time to Stanton so Rice will likely lose a fair amount of time.

Anthony: Someone just dropped Salvy in my league. We do FAAB and I lost Langeliers recently, so rotating between Teel/Stephenson/hot bat. Is it crazy for me to go up to $30 for Salvy?

Justin Mason: Nope. He will be a great snag for you

aaron: is liberatore a strong play ROS even after a few of recent bad starts? assumig you are correct about ober being hurt, would you add him for ober?

Justin Mason: I think I would add Ober because I am scared about the loss in velo for Liberatore as well. His stuff drop off has been noticeable since the velo has come back down and it just doesn’t play well at this velocity.

Brew Crew: Any idea on MIL plan for Logan Henderson?  4 great starts, but now no room in rotation.

Justin Mason: He will wait at AAA for an opportunity.

MF Luder: Max Meyer had a great April and a terrible May. Any hope for him to be decent when he returns?

Justin Mason: I am a big fan so I might be biased, but I believe in the talent. I do wonder how much of the struggle was injury related. I have held onto him in a bunch of leagues.

Salty: Is Trev Williams going to be your spot-start target this week pitching on get-away day vs the K-Machine Rockies?

Justin Mason: He may definitely be an option

aaron: do you prefer taylor ward over the likes of kurtz, j. sanchez or adames?

Justin Mason: I take him over Sanchez

Salty: Does the Harrison move cement Roupp in the rotation ROS or is there still a risk they acquire someone and move him to the pen?

Justin Mason: I think Roupp was in the rotation no matter what

aaron: can adell keep some of this up for the rest of the season? is this finally the breakout? or will he come crashing down to earth any day now?

Justin Mason: He has made real improvements to his contact profile and approach. He will never be a true stud, but if he can keep these gains, the power/speed combo will be enough for him to be fantasy relevant for a long time.

Squirrel: Any plans for an updated SP list?

Justin Mason: I don’t typically do in-season ranks, but maybe around the all-star break if I have time.

Paredes: Heading to the IL or safe to put in weekly lineups? Hamstrings are never mild?

Justin Mason: GM said he should be back

aaron: is brandon walter worth an add in 12 teams? or is he a flash in the pan?

Justin Mason: I think he is an add, but on a short leash

Rick: Hi, Meidroth or JP Crawford ROS in an OBP league?

Justin Mason: Meidroth

Nate: Obviously it was only the White Sox, but feel any new feelings on Kumar Rocker after how he looked yesterday? I really want him to be a thing. Haha

Justin Mason: I have some hope but the command has to stay improved. Good first start for it though

Philly Special: Drop Jordan Romano for Strahm or find a way to roster them both?

Justin Mason: Roster both, but lean Romano if you have to keep only one

Guest: Should we expect a slowdown in hitting performance from TBR bats when they start playing more games on the road in the 2nd half? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Probably

Senga, ya dead mon?: Pressly or Detmers ros in classic roto? Or neither. Would be a 3rd rp for me

Justin Mason: Pressly

T: Any concern about Devers hitting in Oracle?

Justin Mason: Nope. His bat plays anywhere

herbster: who’d you take for rest of season 2B for simple points league? stott, mcclain, caballero, polanco, india

Justin Mason: McLain

Lots of IL: Sorry, I was asking if I should wait on more week for Kim (active roster) or drop for Freeman

Justin Mason: Wait one more week

Vincent: Your thoughts on Brady House?  Seems like his job with Tena getting sent down.  Start him this week with the decent schedule?

Justin Mason: I think I would in a deeper format. There is a ton of power in the bat and you get the Rockies pitchers to start the week and Kershaw plus a bullpen game at the back end.

Jon: Rank these players ROS in an OBP league? Frelick, McKinstry, Rafaela, Meadows

Justin Mason: Meadows, Rafaela, Frelick, McKinstry but a lot of these are close

1: Merrill Kelly for Profar in an OBP 12 fair?

Justin Mason: I’ll take Kelly

Pete: A 2 start Ceccione, a 2 start Soroka or a 1 start Bibee this week?

Justin Mason: Cecconi for me

Bill Warts: Is Raisel a sneaky pick up or will Braves go to committee long term (or trade for someone?) 12 team mixed, thanks.

Justin Mason: I would definitely pick him up and stash

Taco Grande: Start Gordon @ATH or BWalter @LAA? Dobbins @SF or Roupp @BOS? And thank you

Justin Mason: Roupp

JoeG14: Need to drop one: Cowser , Wallner or Agustin Ramirez? Starting Goodman at Catcher. But I have a Utl spot available. 12T Daily Roto

Justin Mason: Drop wallner

Adam: The Phillies have to do something to fix their outfield this trade deadline right? Right??????? Please I’m losing it

Justin Mason: I think they will

herbster: two part question: i have stott @ 2B. he’s really been brutal. do i stick with him? or, other options: moore, caballero, meidroth, polanco, gimenez. anyone you recommend over him? just a simple points league.

Justin Mason: Give me Meidroth here

MF Luder: ROS: Matt Wallner or Sal Frelick?

Justin Mason: Frelick

Mike: Rice for McClain what side do you want?

Justin Mason: McLain

Chip: Shane Smith has quietly been getting it done. I’m getting tired of some high-WHIP guys on my roster who don’t earn QS. Tylor Megill, for example. Could you endorse that switch?

Justin Mason: I love Megill but he will never be a QS guy this year, so I could make that move in that format

Vincent: Thairo Estrada this week or Bogaerts?

Justin Mason: Bogaerts

David Robertson?: Thanks for doing the chats. What lies ahead for David Robertson in the next two months? What are the odds that he signs somewhere where he will earns saves or holds?

Justin Mason: I think he is done

Guest: Start or sit Paredes this week? I am overseas and will be asleep when they post the lineups

Justin Mason: Start

Trade: Is dealing Vientos for McLain fair value?

Justin Mason: yes

3B Hell: I’m in the hunt, but 3b is killing me. Who you got ROS for the ‘chip: Matt Shaw, Colt Keith, or Connor Norby? 12 team standard H2H points dynasty. thank you!

Justin Mason: Keith for me

Flipsho: Is Colt Kwith empty EV? How long do you trust those sort of metrics before you give up on a guy like Keith?

Justin Mason: I have a hard time quitting guys like this and maybe I should sooner, but when you play a game of numbers and the underlying numbers are telling you to hold, I do.

Yoshida Truther: Does Yoshida become an option at DH and return earlier while rehabbing is arm?

Justin Mason: That is a really good call. He could definitely be the option for Boston now that the DH spot is open.

Goldschmidt: can I really not even get an RP in SVH

Justin Mason: That’s crazy! You should definitely be able to

MI Position: J Crawford or Stott ROS? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Stott

Mike Tyson: designated hitter: 15 team roto dynasty.  Roki.  How much hope should I be holding out for next year and beyond.

Justin Mason: I think long term, he will be good. The industry was just too high on him as a shiny new toy when he came over.

Trade: Thought’s on Michael Harris + Ben Rice for Drew Rasmussen + Luis Garcia? Essentially a redraft, I could use pitching/MI help

Justin Mason: I have no problem with this

Kevin D: 12T H2H Points: Keep Palencia and Bednar, or drop one for extra pitching streams this week?

Justin Mason: keep

Scott: OBP 10 team 300 cap H2H, Harris II $11 or G Springer $21?

Justin Mason: Harris

Guest: OBP league release Ozzie Albies for Chase M?  ( are Willie Adames and Albies the same person?)

Justin Mason: It’s so weird but all the pop in Albies bat has seemingly evaporated. Still making good contact but it is so weak. If you need to OBP, I understand, but I would have a tough time doing this myself.

Mike: Josh Smith for real or on a hot streak (or a little of both).  12-team, 5 OF H2H.

Justin Mason: little of both. Ride it for now

Jon: Who should be the odd man out in my uninspiring MI: L. Garcia, McLain, McNeil, Stott?  Should I keep that guy rostered (10 tm OBP league with 30 man rosters) or drop and possibly stream in good matchups?

Justin Mason: Stott

Mike: Detmers interesting in a 12 team H2H with holds and saves as separate categories?  He seems to have figured it out and Kenley seems likely to get traded.

Justin Mason: yes absolutely. The Angels have to trade Kenley at the deadline and Detmers is next up

Liam: Thoughts on Doyle? H2h 7×7 (hits and walks), obp projections ros are frightening. Don’t really need the fourth outfielder.

Justin Mason: The underlying numbers point to a second half rebound for Doyle. I am a believer in him still.

Worried: Will Ohtani return any real SP value this year?

Justin Mason: Probably not. They will be careful with him

Worried: Is Harris II cooked?

Justin Mason: no but that is the problem with this type of approach. You can have massive slumps. I think he will get hot at some point, but he will always be frustrating to roster.

Worried: Will the Braves trade anyone to “reset” or are they sticking with this core?

Justin Mason: Probably Ozuna

Youppi Lives!: Kristian Campbell or Brooks Lee for ROS? 14-team, OBP, 6×6

Justin Mason: Lee

G Stanton: Do I play 4x a week and provide value?

Justin Mason: Probably not for very long

Dave in slc: Thoughts on this trade in nl only. Soto 40, yamamoto 23 , daysbel hernandez 10 and thairo estrada 12 for albies 22, abbot 8 and Adam 10 and Fraley 7. The team giving soto and yamamoto said he’s cooked and rebuilding and wanted better contracts. Fair enough for you? Seems light to me but like youI,  normally don’t veto trades

Justin Mason: It is very light, but I don’t think you veto it because he has the right rationale

3B Hell: Still choose Colt Keith with Vientos on the wire and soon to return from IL? I would cut Norby and keep Keith in Dynasty…

Justin Mason: I want Keith in a dynasty for sure

Mike: Kwan for a closer with warts (like Romano) and an SP with potential (like Mize).  Which side and why?  Kwan has been pretty cold and might still have an injured wrist.

Justin Mason: I am totally fine with that because saves are hard to come by and I like Mize. So for needs I would do this.

Joe: Cut one OF in an OBP league: Stowers, Frelick, Wallner

Justin Mason: Wallner

Dave in slc: What do you think of soroka ros? Nl only would replace reed garret, have iglesias, Lee and palencia for saves. My staff is pretty good and don’t want to hurt ratios

Justin Mason: I think he has shown his stuff is pretty good, but the command is going to lead to a homer problem which makes him unreliable week to week

JT: Rank RoS at 2B, L. Garcia, O. Albies or M. McLain ? 6×6 h2h redraft (OBP, TB, HR, RBI, R, SB)

Justin Mason: McLain

Liam: Thoughts on gimenez? Platooning, but has been hitting well and figure the steals will come around.

Justin Mason: The problem is the Blue Jays don’t run a ton and now he is in a platoon. I just don’t see a ton of upside here.

Justin Mason: That is all my time! please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!