Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – July 31st, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Vic: Big Lead in a 15 Team 5 x 5. About 20 points. Should I wait and see how 2nd place team trades in the next few weeks, or  mortgage the future by trading prospects to guarantee the title?

Justin Mason: I would do a deep dive to see where I can lose spots in the standings. 20 point lead is great but things sometimes are more fraudulent then they appear. No need to mortgage the future if it is really unlikely you can be caught, but if you can then it is something you might want to think about.

Robert: 12 team OBP league. Just traded noot and Gunnar for trout. Also rostering witt, turner, and elly, so I had a roster glut of SS/3B. Did I pay too much for Mike?

Justin Mason: In a redraft, I don’t think so. In a keeper I still think you are ok, but the gunnar loss could hurt

DC: Looking to improve on Stephenson in my Catcher slot. I just got offered William Contreras for Tanner Bibee, 1:1… I have Woodruff (**Hopefully**) coming back soon so need to burn a SP anyways. Would you accept? (6×6 Roto, 13 teams)

Justin Mason: Absolutely

Vic: Pfaadt is having the same year in Triple A so maybe next year he’ll figure it out?

Justin Mason: I think he probably will, but I also think home runs might still be an issue for him until he sharpens his command. That being said, the walk rates were good in the Majors and the minors, so I don’t think this is something that stops him from being a serviceable fantasy starter long term.

Vic: What is wrong with Joe Ryan? Still getting Ks but c’mon…?

Justin Mason: Dude gives up too many home runs. That being said, I think he will be better. His HR/FB rate is really high over his last six starts. I may write him up as a buy low today for an article.

STL: Masyn Winn starting SS STL later this week?  Thanks

Justin Mason: I think there is a very good chance he is.

Jesse: Where do you have Matt McClain for next year? Trinton Casas (same question)?

Justin Mason: Really good question. Ask me in chat next week or on twitter at the end of this week because I am going to be doing 2024 ranks tonight for my three sport draft that begins Wednesday.

Vic: Week to Week, who do you trust more Gore or Josiah Gray?

Justin Mason: Gore but it is close

Sheehan: Any thoughts rest of season?

Justin Mason: I think he is in the bullpen or minors after the Dodgers deadline moves.

Guest: Sal frelick, rengifo, or conforto ROS in 12t h2h

Justin Mason: Frelick

Vic: MJ Melendez got 10 games at catcher early on….but none in awhile. Are his days of catcher officially over?

Justin Mason: I think so

Jake: Is Luzardo a must start this week @ TEX? I’m struggling with who to start for the week. I have to sit 2 out of Scherzer, Castillo, Luzardo, P. Lopez, Bibbe, C. Sanchez, H. Brown, Lynn and Matz. Who would you sit? (12 team roto)

Justin Mason: I would sit Luzardo and Bibee

Vic: Why don’t pitchers simply throw fastballs to avoid walks with big leads? See: Kremer last night?

Justin Mason: I think pitchers are creatures of habits and don’t want to make changes like that mid game. A more seasoned battery might have made different decisions.

Aaron: Traded Yandy Diaz and Cristian Javier for Vladdy Jr in a 10 team h2h 5 cats + obp last week in an effort to consolidate at a CI spot while trying to get whatever name value was left on Javier. Will Vladdy reach his lofty expected stats though or will this one look like a wash in the end?

Justin Mason: I think he will. Great move!

The Kid: How did I do? My Merrill Kelly, Gore, Varsho for Jazz and Sean Murphy. I’m in first place and need some more lineup stability in a league that leans towards pitching. Secondly, once Cedric Mullins comes back, who would you cut between Soler, J Duran, or McCormick?

The Kid: Points league for my questions

Justin Mason: I love this trade for you. Should cement a championship with that. I think I would cut McCormick but maybe you could trade one of them?

Dave: I was offered Kyle Schwarber for Brandon Donovan and Seiya Suzuki in my points league.  I’m in the top three right now, so would Schwarber be an upgrade?

Justin Mason: depends on if their are negative points for K’s

Charles: Hi Justin, Rizzo is killing me in my 12 man points league.  He’s always been streaky but this feels different.  Should I cut bait and pick up someone like Ryan O’Hearn instead?  Thanks

Justin Mason: I would wait and see what the Orioles and Yankees do at the deadline, but if nothing with playing time changes, I can understand making that move.

Ed: Will you be in on Shane Baz next year when he’s 18 plus months out from TJ?

Justin Mason: Really depends on the price but if he is cheap enough I would be. I tried to trade for him in a keeper today where I am rebuilding but the team doesn’t want to let him go which makes me think he may be more expensive than I would pay.

Alex: What do we do with India? He seems to be the odd man out and now he’s on the IL. I’m concerned he won’t get enough playing time even when he comes back

Justin Mason: Since it is unlikely he gets moved, I think he will be fine when he comes back. No reason he should lose playing time over other guys. He was playing every day before the injury.

Panik! At the Disco: Keep Cron in Anaheim or consider drop for CES/Nolan Jones/Mountcastle all on wire. Abreu is other 1B. 12 team H2H OBP/SLG — thanks!

Justin Mason: Drop for Mountcastle or CES

B’ryce Szymbobski: I wish I had questions, but my team rocks right now! 14-3 in my ten team home league, and my only “weakness” right now is Matt Chapman as my 3B

Justin Mason: Congrats!

Rob: H2H AL only points league, salary cap.  Is Chris Sale (not renewable) worth taking a shot on to get the last playoff spot? Will cost me a norby, mayer or yorke propsect, each with 4 years control.

Justin Mason: Sure. move Norby for him.

steve: friedl has been pretty quiet recently. all things equal, do you prefer him or edman in a h2h ops league?

Justin Mason: Friedl but I am THE FRIEDL GUY!

Ron: Two similar players….Stanton and Soler…..who do you prefer ROS?  10 team h2h categories.  Thanks

Justin Mason: Soler

Thomas: Braves just dealt for Nicky Lopez. You think he’ll bring any value in deeper NL-only leagues?

Justin Mason: Probably not

steve: do you view skubal as a must roster in shallow redraft leagues or more of a team streamer? the Ks are great but wins and depth into games dont seem likely for this season

Justin Mason: Team streamer

steve: would you rather stash hunter greene or eury perez for a fantasy playoff run?

Justin Mason: Perez

Guest: Tampa / Yankees ML?

Justin Mason: Give me the Rays ML

-er pitchers: Scherzer or Framber, ROS?

Justin Mason: Framber

Guest: Danny Jansen is my alternative to Heim now that Heim’s hurt. Jansen has to be the catcher 3 out of every 4 days in TOR, right?

Justin Mason: I would think so. That’s a pretty great alternative.

steve: does duvall provide any fantasy juice the rest of the season? would you take him over will benson? benson is awesome when he’s not running a 50% k rate…like right now

Justin Mason: I would ride with Benson for now.

SFSPIDER: Steer starting to slow down. Does he lose playing time?

Justin Mason: I think he could get dealt for pitching in the next 24 hours.

steve: would you roster kutter over skubal for playoffs? or play the match up game based on schedules

Justin Mason: Play the matchups

Ryan: Ryne Nelson worth streaming against SF tonight? Weekly H2H with Ws and QS

Justin Mason: Nah

Catcher upgrade: Trying to upgrade at Catcher in AL Only OBP. Have Bethancourt/Langeliers. Who should I cut and who should I aim for between Kirk, Salvy, Varsho, Melendez? Or better to use my trade chips elsewhere?

Justin Mason: Cut Bethancourt. Target Sal or Varsho

Woo-urns: A little scared about Woo getting NO strikeouts last time out. Just a blip or should I be moving him? AL Only league.

Justin Mason: I don’t think it is anything to be worried about. Velo was fine. I think he just didn’t have feel for the slider so he threw a ton of fastballs.

SFSPIDER: Is Jose Miranda just bad? Too early to tell? I mean, obviously the later, but should I be looking for $.50 on the $1 in a super deep keeper league?

Justin Mason: I think he will be fine, but I also don’t think he will ever be a fantasy stud. Maybe take .75 on the dollar?

What’s on Second: Gleyber or Altuve, ROS? (OBP league)

Justin Mason: Altuve

Jordan: I think that Rangers should trade for Cody bellinger and send Andrew heaney to the cubs

Justin Mason: Cubs said they aren’t moving Bellinger. I think they are minor buyers at the deadline

Peter: Thoughts on Bradish’s 2-step this week?  Kind of scared…

Justin Mason: Scary, but I am rolling with it because the back half could be really nice after the Mets finish selling.

Guest: Wander for Luis Castillo straight up in 12t h2h. Take it or no?

Justin Mason: In a keeper, I want Wander. In a redraft, give me castillo

Keeper Debate: Better Keeper in AL Only OBP league: Josh Lowe ($10) or Kwan ($1)? I know Kwan is seen as over-rated, but he’s been running a decent amount this year.

Justin Mason: Kwan because of the price difference.

Heaney: Are you rolling out Heaney vs. the White Sox this week or is he just too risky?

Justin Mason: Too risky for me

Romano: Jordan Romano or Gregory Santos for Saves ROS?

Justin Mason: Romano

Dave in slc: Odds that raley remains the closer w the mets?

Justin Mason: 10%

Medium Chungus: In a deep league, i’m in good shape at all positions except for my 1B spot, which is a disaster. Can you rank these names for ROS value in H2H? Vaughn-Santana- Toglia-Abreu-Tellez(stashed on my IL)

Justin Mason: Vaughn, Toglia, Abreu, Santana, Tellez

Ben: How valuable is Brooks Raley with Robertson gone? I scooped him up and am now deciding between keeping him and a streaming spot

Justin Mason: I think he gets traded too

Jason Adenolith Heyward: 8 team standard h2h. Looking like I’ll be in 2nd place come playoffs. Hitting is strong, but my pitching is mediocre. Thoughts on shipping out my starters before the deadline and going very relief heavy?

Justin Mason: I always like that strategy when there is no innings min

Jason Adenolith Heyward: Ozuna’s numbers look great in Statcast. Is he still a hold in a 12-teamer that counts OPS and Hits?

Justin Mason: I think so. Underlying numbers in July look fine

Jason Adenolith Heyward: My kid got a brown banana out of our freezer this morning and brought it to our bedroom asking if he can eat this “chocolate banana”. I was getting the littlest ready so I told him to put it on the dresser and go get his shoes on. Now I can’t find said banana. Best case scenario he ignored me and ate the whole thing. Most likely, it’s hiding in our house somewhere and I’m going to find it 4 days from now when it starts to smell.

Justin Mason: 2 points awarded!

Justin Mason: I can’t tell you how many times something like this has happened to me

Muncy Do: Sorry, this was just a huge deal. Which side you taking, 12 team roto 8×8, 15 keepers per team. Robertson can’t be kept, Muncy and Verlander have 4 years of eligibility left before becoming free agents:

Muncy, Yandy, Yanier Diaz, Doval, Verlander, Robertson, De La Cruz, Liover, Woo

Dansby, Gilbert, Alzolay, Fairbanks, Salvador Perez, Moustakas, Montero (CO), Gabriel Arias, Matt Wallner

Justin Mason: Muncy side

Abel: Time to drop Rizzo and/or Correa in a 12? I have plenty of flexibility and could grab someone like Burger, Grisham or Siri

Justin Mason: Rizzo for sure. Correa is a hold I think

Guest: Mitch Keller is a top-?? SP ROS?

Justin Mason: 40

Orioles: Who do I want the Orioles to get to fill in for Wells?

Justin Mason: Verlander

Thomas: How would you rank these young arms I have in an NL-Only dynasty for ROS and ’24: Pfaadt, Gavin Stone, Ryne Nelson,  Johan Oviedo, Matt Liberatore

Justin Mason: Pfaadt, Stone, Oviedo, Liberatore, Nelson

Mugghead: Given all the recent Angels moves, what role do you expect Drury to have when he’s activated from IL? Thank you.

Justin Mason: I think he plays every day. Mostly at 2B

The Royal We: Hey Justin TY for the chat!

Do we like Johan Rojas for any 23 juice? Harper to 1B, Schwarbs to DH, does it seem like he’s just about wrestled away an OF spot from Cave?  

What about 2024 and beyond?

Justin Mason: I think it depends on if the Phillies add someone. Could be a diet Jose Siri if he has playing time.

tortycraig: Jung $5 or Gunnar $14 keeper for next year? Leaning Jung. 5×5 OBP 10 team, 8 keepers, other keepers aren’t too expensive (have Wander, Adley, Julio, Robert, plenty of upside)

Justin Mason: Jung for me

Mike A: Would you start Fried (vs Cubs?) or German (TB, Hou) this week?

Justin Mason: Fried

Vladdy: Am I crazy for selling vlad Jr in a dynasty where I can get Bryce Harper + a couple solid pitchers in return? I doubt 2023 is a new baseline or anything, but 2021 is looking like a bit of an outlier

Vladdy: ^say older, but consensus top 25 SPs

Justin Mason: Do not do this

Ben: 12T Redraft points league. Fantasy football league starting up with the same people as the baseball league, a lot of teams are out of it and there’s been some discussion of allowing trading baseball players for football draft picks. Think this ruins the baseball league or no?

Justin Mason: This should only happen if the leagues are tied together as a multi-sport league. Like I play in a number of three sport leagues, but they are one entry fee and one winner for the combo leagues. If they are two separate leagues with the same owners, then no way. That would be collusion-esque.

KC Pain: What is the comp for Wallner?  Love the power but keep seeing his BA creep downward each game.  I have yet to see him play but stat line is nice.

Justin Mason: Adam Duvall? Power but bad average.

Mark: Snell vs Dodgers or Lorenzen vs Tampa?

Justin Mason: Snell

E: In 1st with a decent but not insurmountable margin in 12 team roto. I have both cron and grichuk. Should i wait to see how the playing time shakes out or toss them both for waiver options?

Justin Mason: Maybe hold for now, but I think you will probably end up tossing them.

Captain Awesome: In 2 NFBC Draft Champion leagues with my knucklehead brother … he’s trying to convince me to start Syndegaard this week (2 starts); other options would be Taylor Rogers or AJ Minter – are we nuts for even thinking about Syndegaard (need Wins)?; had Heim in both leagues also … Dude – ouch; We are in 2nd place with great hitting and obviously not great pitching

Justin Mason: I would not do this unless I was desperate for wins and my ratios were pristine.

Guest: I just lost Heim

Justin Mason: Me too

Guest: Apparently gore getting shut down for September is likely, drop him for kutter?

Justin Mason: Ummm… I haven’t seen this anywhere. I would hold until I have confirmation

Barry: Better keeper – Andrew Abbott at $5 or Goldy at $18 in standard, 8 keeper league?

Justin Mason: Goldy

Marc: I’m on the playoff bubble in 12T H2H Points league and just lost Heim. Waiver replacement options are Varsho, Gomes, Raleigh, Kirk, and Melendez. Who should I grab?

Justin Mason: Varsho

Blind Referee: Helen Keller walked into a bar.

CJ Effin’ Abrams. The hot streak cools here and there but doesn’t stop. Is he a top 10 SS option at this point right? Even recognizing how high a bar that is?  Do you have a quick easy comp for his current value in a standard roto 12 team keeper league?  

And a table… And a chair…

Justin Mason: He’s the 11th SS this year. That does include guys like Trea Turner, Gunnar Henderson, Bogaerts, Swanson, and Estrada all behind him. Love Abrams, but he isn’t a top 10 guy quite yet.

KC Pain: Dynasty 16 team league w 25 minor slots.  Trade Manning and Skubal for Painter and Abel?

Justin Mason: Sure

ColoRado: Please rank these SPs ROS in a 12 tm QS league: Lynn, Matz, Jon Gray, Detmers, Bradish. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Bradish, Detmers, Lynn, Matz, Gray

Tim: How do you see Masyn Winn projecting stat-wise?, worth a stash in a 14T H2H dynasty? I have Betts, Kim and Lawlar already on the roster

Justin Mason: I think he hits for average and steals bases, but I question whether the power plays well in Busch. I don’t think I would stash him over any of those guys, but if I could squeeze him on my roster, he will be a decent asset to trade

Dave in slc: Nl only ros would you want pfaadt, wesneski or cueto? Would you want payamps over any of them?

Justin Mason: I think I would take Payamps there

Mike: What are chances Quintana gets traded?  Would only be starting him for the 2 start week.

Justin Mason: I would think he definitely could get moved considering what the Mets are doing. I am starting him this week and praying he doesn’t get traded.

Mike: Taj @ DET, Paxton vs TOR or Bibee @ HOU?

Justin Mason: Paxton

The Unforgiven: Have a keep-10 H2H points salary league where we reset up to 2 rookies to 1 salary and thus can keep easily for ~5 years.  I hold Gunnar, McLain, Volpe and EDLC and am currently in first place but could use SP help; thinking of trading EDLC for a top-10, top-20, and top-30 pitcher in our league, plus a good SS bat.  I figure two of the others will still be great for the next 5 years, but will I regret it?

Justin Mason: I think that is a fair ask, but man he is exciting so I would have a hard time doing it.

RAH: Who do you like as trade targets for 2nd half SBs?

Justin Mason: Got to give me a little more info. Are we talking like sleeper guys or paying up for them? Jake McCarthy, Nico Hoerner, Abrams, Dairon Blanco

E: If I toss cron, who do you like: votto, mountcastle, carlos santana, dom smith? or do I move steer back to 1st base from outfield and just pick up another outfielder?

Justin Mason: Mountcastle, especially if he gets traded.

Guest: Pls Ranks Garrett, Kutter, Paxton, Matz for dynasty?

Justin Mason: Garrett, Paxton, Kutter, Matz

Phil: 12 team H2H with OBP. Been rostering Alvarez and  Davis at C, but time to drop one.  Is Davis the drop and who would you add from Morel, Brandon Lowe, Suzuki, Nolan Jones? Thanks

Justin Mason: I’d drop for Suzuki

TradeTime: Big lead (huge) in standard roto. Is it time yet to try and consolidate talent into higher end keepers for next year? Or do I keep my foot on the gas a couple of weeks longer (Aug 31 trade deadline)

Justin Mason: Do a deep dive on your standings and see how many points you can stand to lose. If you think you have it in the bag then maybe make some trades for the future, but I always lean towards this year because championships are forever.

Guest: Kenta or kutter ros

Justin Mason: Kenta

jackal: Do you think Anthony Rendon wills himself to get injured?

Justin Mason: I definitely this he should be in bubble wrap at all times.

DUSTY BAKER LAWN INVASION: Something seemed terribly wrong with George Springer. He hadn’t hit a ball over 98 MPH since 7/18. I was pursuing him in trade, pushing some chips in this year so I need 2023 production, screw the future.. I saw his metrics, and assumed he must be hurt.

He hit a ball 102 yesterday.  Still far from peak Springer, but given his previous track record, is that enough for you to pursue him in my spot?

Justin Mason: I think he is fine.

Barbara Bush: Why are all my favorite players to own platoon players? Fraley, J Lowe, L Raley. Imagine if these guys could hit lefties

Justin Mason: Lol. I think this is really common. We dream that guys like this could become complete players and studs. Doesn’t usually happen though

Medium Chungus: Looking to bolster my hitting going into the playoffs in my 20 team H2H…which 1 of these 3 rookie pitchers would you trade in a dynasty and which 2 would you keep?  Bryce M, Woo , H Brown

Justin Mason: Woo. I think there is a chance he gets shut down

Justin Mason: Speed round!

Glasnow’s Revenge: Alika Williams was a supplemental 1st round pick by TB in 2020. Stalled in the TB org. Traded to PIT this year. Explodes in PIT org.

First, what?

Second, do you see anything worth chasing there? My concern is anything he does this year is an audition for a utility role in 24 bc of the gigantic Oneil in the room. What say you, kind sir?

Justin Mason: I honestly I have no idea

E: Do you have quintana over any of bello, christopher sanchez, maeda?

Justin Mason: No

EDLC: “but man he is exciting so I would have a hard time doing it” … is the absolute best time to sell. Find the dude in your league in love with EDLC and rob him blind.

Justin Mason: Fair point

Dave in slc: Nl only keeper have puk at a buck. That seemed like a good keeper until thr last couple of weeks. Do you hold or has he lost all value?

Justin Mason: For this year he has no value. Should be the closer next year though

Severi-NO!: 10 team QS and Sv/HLD league and I’m battling for QS and Hld/Sv. Is it time to give up on Severino and pick up Carlos Hernandez to get some Starter eligible saves/holds, or will I regret giving up on Severino?

Justin Mason: Drop him

Ben: Not much to complain about with Strider this year but do we think the ERA stays this high or will it go down? And where do you think he goes next year in redraft?

Justin Mason: The ERA should come down a bit. I think he is the top pitcher taken next year.

TBJ: 12 team AL only.  Bregman/J. Rogers or Tork/Yainer Diaz? ROS

Justin Mason: Bregman

Mike: 6 category OPS league.  Who’s the start?

Mike: Happ 4 vs CIN, 3 vs ATL; Julien 3 @ STL, 3 vs ARI; W Castro 3 @ STL; 3 vs ARI or Bader 3 vs TB, 4 vs HOU.  OPS league

Justin Mason: Julien

Guest: In a roto keeper league 5×5, who would you keep assuming same draft value: J Walker or Casas

Justin Mason: Walker

KC Pain: How real is Yainer Diaz?  How come Houston isnt using him at catcher all that much?  A bat without a position?

Justin Mason: I think he is pretty legit. Probably the main catcher next year. They just like how Maldanado handles the staff.

Ed: Assuming Carlos Estevez isn’t traded, do you think he’s a keeper for 2024? Grabbed him for $1 in April.

Justin Mason: Absolutely!

Justin Mason: Ok, that is all the questions I have! Thank you all for chatting with me. please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!