Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – July 22nd, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

W. Backman: What can the Mets expect from Senga for the rest of this season?

Justin Mason: At this point, I don’t think they should expect much. He has had mutiple setbacks and really struggled in his lat outing giving up three walks and a home run in three innings. I will be interested to see what the Mets do with him as they are in the Wild Card race, but I don’t know if they consider themselves contenders.

Insert Witty Name Here: Is Arozerena back?

Justin Mason: Since June 1st, Arozarena is hitting .292/.395/.526 with seven home runs and even stolen bases. More importantly, He is making league average contact in the zone and been more selective in and out of the zone while hitting the ball hard. Yes, I think he is back

Rickey: Between Evan Phillips and Clay Holmes, who has a better chance of losing the closer job in the next couple weeks?

Justin Mason: I think it is Phillips. I could see the Dodgers make a move here for a closer at the deadline.

Insert Witty Name Here: Which two belong in my 12 team OBP Util spots – Bregman, Oneil Cruz, Robles, Horwitz. In need of HR and RBI.

Justin Mason: Bregman and Horwitz

RAGBRAI: Does Black come up I mm

Justin Mason: Tyler or Mason?

Kate: David Peterson (@ MIA, vs. ATL) or Albert Suarez (@ MIA, vs. SD) for last P spot this week?

Justin Mason: Peterson for me.

Justin Mason: but it is close

RAGBRAI: Does Black come up in the second half to contribute in Milwaukee? Does it take a trade or injury for it to happen?

Justin Mason: There we go. I think at this point, he needs an injury to make it happen. I don’t see the Brewers moving someone from their infield away. They may even add someone to further complicate things for him.

Tim: i will have Elly at short the next 5 years I could use Lawlar at MI next year or trade him for Crews and outfield help. Any advice. What do I do with Jordan Walker he cost me $7/260 this year but will increase to $17 next year. Would you drop him now for the much needed bench space?

Justin Mason: I would trade Lawlar for Crews in a heartbeat when you have Elly in the fold. I think if Walker is going to cost that much next season, it is ok to drop him and try to get him back cheaper at the draft table.

Kate: Has Tanner Scott recovered enough that he could potentially be traded and still stick as a closer (or at least have a large save share)?

Justin Mason: I definitely think he is traded at the deadline, but isn’t likely a closer in his next spot.

Spaceman: Hi Justin,

Justin Mason: HI!

Mike: Will we see Mayo, Holliday Caminero or Max Meyer promoted this week?

Justin Mason: I don’t know that we see any of them promoted this week, but next month all three should be in the majors.

Kate: Leo Jimenez anything interesting in 15s while Bo is out?

Justin Mason: He has a decent hit tool, so if he is playing every day, he could be an accumulator for the Blue Jays.

Guest: In 8×8 h2h looking for an Albies replacement.  Did Lux fix something over the break?

Justin Mason: Probably too early to tell, but I have always believed in the talent and he is making a ton of contact right now. I picked him up in a number of leagues yesterday.

RAGBRAI: Is it vintage Tatis upon his return or will he be Tatease?

Justin Mason: I  expect him to be the Tatis we have always known once healthy.

Guest: Out of the MLB 2024 draft class, who do you think will put up the best fantasy baseball numbers if you had to pick just one if you were playing in a dynasty league.

Justin Mason: To be honest, I haven’t done the proper research yet. I will here in the next few weeks as I have my first FYPD coming up in August. Just not there yet.

Short Stopping: I’ve been playing shortstop roulette all season in my points league.  Wynn, Neto, Volpe, Tovar.  Neto has been the best since May-ish.  How would you rank them ROS?

Justin Mason: Volpe, Neto, Tovar, Wynn

Spaceman: Plz rank for rest of season in a 15 team redraft H2h, Michael King, Gausmann, Houck, Bryce Miller, Lodolo.

Justin Mason: Houck Gausman, Miller, Lodolo, King

Closer Chaos: Evan Phillips a drop?  Would you go after Daniel Hudson as a replacement?  Or would you target Puk or Joyce?

Justin Mason: I don’t know that I am ready to drop him, but if I did, I would grab Hudson as I think he is the guy right now. Puk has more saves likely after the deadline tho.

Vince: Top contender in 12-tm, H2H, category. Want to drop 1 or 2 SPs to open slot for bench hitter streamer and a SP/RP for HD+S. Please rank (w any comments) R Lopez, Bobby Miller, G Stone, N Cortes, Pepiot (just on IL), R Olson (just on IL), H Brown, G Williams, Baz, Kershaw (coming off IL). Thanks!

Justin Mason: Pepiot and Olson since they are hurt. If you can stash them, then I think it would be Williams and Baz.

Colton: 14 team 7×7 league. Looking to upgrade at 2b, you like Gorman or Bogaerts more? I also have Rengifo off IL soon.

Justin Mason: Bogaerts

Nick: Thanks for chatting!  In a 12-team 5×5 head-to-head league, do you like Luis Garcia, David Hamilton, or Michael Busch as a utility type to fill an open roster spot?

Justin Mason: Hamilton

Mike: Is Tatis more of top 30 hitter than a top10?

Justin Mason: When healthy, he is top 10

Insert Witty Name Here: I have 362 innings left for the year. If I roster 5 closers while chasing saves, I have Greene, Pfaadt, King, and J. Jones coming back, how would you manage the SP usage? 12 team QS league.

Justin Mason: You really want to manage your starts rest of the way. I would spreadsheet it out and see what projections say is their likely projected innings rest of the way and then have a running clock on their starts as the season continues to go on.

RAGBRAI: My IL pitchers include Musgrove, E Rodriquez, Weathers, Jones, and Waldrep. Is there much for them helping this year in my NL 5×5? How about next year?

Justin Mason: I think Jones should be back soon and give help. Hard to know about Musgrove and E-Rod, though I picked up Musgrove in a couple of leagues last week to be ahead of things once his rehab starts.

Tim: I was going to give Andrew Vaughn until Casas returns but I can’t stand looking at him on my roster anymore; 14t H2H dynasty, would you try to jump on Adell’s heater or take a spec on Nolan Jones?

Justin Mason: Vaughn is hitting .279/.321/.476 with seven home runs since the beginning of June with good underling skills. I prefer him to both Adell and Jones.n

JG: I hope Adolis is watching Randy’s turn around and taking notes

Justin Mason: Adolis has always been a free swinger and he is just not making enough in zone contact. If he could be more selective in and out of the zone, the talent is still there for a turnaround.

Kevin: What do you make of Soler RoS – do you see a power binge coming?

Justin Mason: He is the guy he has always been. A ton of power but doesn’t make a ton of in-zone contact so he is streaky. When those streaks come are hard to predict.

Putting Baby in a Corner: Hi! Can you pick favorite/least favorite among these corner bats? OBP league: Justin Turner, JH Malloy, Andrew Vaughn, Loperfido?

Justin Mason: Favorite: Vaughn
Least Favorite: Malloy

Ben: are we all now living in Alec Burleson’s world?

Justin Mason: We are. All Burleson needed was a chance and the struggles of other Cardinals is giving it to him. No reason to think he can’t play regularly rest of the way.

Save/WAR Fare: Could you rank these save specs? Hunter Harvey, Joyce, Shelby Miller, brebbia

Justin Mason: Joyce, Brebbia, Harvey, Miller

DJ: Yandy Diaz or Juan Yepez ROS? Think Andrew Vaughn could continue his hot streak?

Justin Mason: Yepez and yes

Heh Heh Heaney: Buying Heaney’s recent success? I know he’s fooled us all before.

Justin Mason: Nah, he still struggles with command and control from inning to innning. I love to see him successful, but I am not bought in that this is anything different.

Nach your Nachos: Expectations for Nacho Alvarez? I had Jacob Wilson윌슨 but that lasted all of a day

Justin Mason: Low end accumulator if he plays regularly.

Guest: Hey Justin. 14 team yahoo 6×6 with OPS and QS. I was offered TON for Bryce Miller. Have all but 4 points on pitching side but offense lacking in R, HR, RBI, and OPS. In first overall by 17 points. Safe trade?

Justin Mason: Seems safe

Dennis: How do you feel about Brooks Lee ROS? See him staying with the Twins or would you try to move him in a prospects hungry keeper league for someone more established?

Justin Mason: I really like Lee from a skills prospective. He is making a ton of contact and has some pop and speed. However, I think he loses playing time once the Twins get healthy. He could even go to the minors.

Honkus Wagner: Are you holding Bobby Miller in a keeper? feels crazy to be asking this

Justin Mason: Of course

bdubs: Of all the current closers, which would you give the greatest likelihood for getting traded, and if traded, who would you give the greatest odds to for becoming the new closer?

Justin Mason: Tanner Scott gets dealt and AJ Puk is the new Marlins closer.

Justin Mason: Also think the Carlos Estevez gets traded and Ben Joyce is the Angels closer

RAGBRAI: Do you think ATL fades from the playoffs after recent injuries? Who do the trade for to save the season? Who do they trade away to make it happen?

Justin Mason: I could see them making moves for guys that just fill holes until they can get healthy. A guy like Paul DeJong makes a ton of sense or the infield.

No question, just a comment: James Wood has had a wonky schedule thus far. Nine of his 17 starts thus far have come against LHP meaning 54% of his PA have come against lefties thus far. So his stats thus far are really wonky. We should have a better idea of his line in another week and a half since 8 of his next 9 are against RHP per Roster Resource and the series after that is Milwaukee who is currently rolling with an entirely RH rotation. That is all.

Justin Mason: I appreciate the insight!

Always Next Year: Already planning for next year… do you think Strider maintains top tier caliber next year for a 12T H2H?

Justin Mason: I never bet on guys in their first season back from TJ

RAGBRAI: What’s more likely, Baty gets traded or promoted this year? Is he a change of scenery guy?

Justin Mason: I think he could definitely use a change of scenery but I don’t think the Mets will move him.

Dodger Dog: Thoughts on Kershaw and Buhler,s fantasy impact Rest of season – thanks

Justin Mason: Kershaw has always been good when he is on the mound so while I am a bit nervous about all of his setbacks, I think he should be decent once up. Buehler I am more nervous about because I just don’t trust guys coming back from TJ and he has had a really bumpy road since the surgery.

Pete: Do you think that Justin Martinez could be the closer next season for Arizona with Sewald getting up there in age and on a 1 year deal?

Justin Mason: Yes, I am a fan of Martinez and think he definitely could be in line for saves next season

Justin R: 8-team Category league. 3 IL spots. What are we doing with Yamamoto?

Justin Mason: Holding for now

Jackson Jobe: Am I debuting this week?

Justin Mason: I don’t think so

RAGBRAI: Muncy is out until at least Mid August. Is he basically done for the year or do you think he can come back and contribute this year?

Justin Mason: I think he is droppable in most formats.

Fried Fish: M Meyer – when does he come back to the bigs  ? thoughts on fantasy impact ROS? Thanks

Justin Mason: I think he is coming back this week. I want to see him pitch before I really buy back in but I have always loved his talent.

Minors stash: My league has an NA slot where you can stash someone in the minors (or on leave, like paternity leave). Have Mayo stashed. Stash Mayo or should I go grab Jobe? (FWIW, I’m in pretty decent shape for both hitting and pitching).

Justin Mason: I am stashing Mayo

JT: 10t, h2h, looking to acquire Elly, is Steer and Corbin Carroll enough ?

Justin Mason: It should be

Tim: 12 team ottoneu points league. Would you trade Bryan Woo for Noelvi Marte or Nolan Jones? Or better off keeping Woo? Prices are all equal

Justin Mason: I would do that for Marte. I am worried about Woos arm.

Second-time Caller: Don’t need Ks. Convince me to hold on to MacKenzie Gore.

Justin Mason: I am still holding him for now, but I am worried.

Guest: I have an opportunity to give up a couple A prospects for either Scherzer or Kershaw to help provide some stability to my rotation in my dynasty / career league, (14 team H2H, 10 starts a week). Are either of these better options than Singer / Harrison / Waldron / Scott, who are my lower guys week to week.

Justin Mason: I think both are

Justin Mason: Especially Kershaw who will be pitching for the best team in baseball.

Adrian Beltre HoF: Victor Robles? Is this streak sustainable? Are you buying into what he is doing? He’s barreling more (well, barreling period). Thoughts?

Justin Mason: Since coming to Seattle he is making league average contact and hitting the ball very squarely which is a good sign for him. I am a buyer right now

Moelicious: Ben Rice is basically three true outcomes. Can he hit better than .200?

Justin Mason: His xBA is .261 and the underlying number support a player that is better than the .211 line we have seen.

KC PAIN: Doyle a .250 20/30 guy for the next few years?  (Dynasty owner)

Justin Mason: The development we have seen with Doyle this seaosn is staggering. He went from a guy that couldn’t make contact to an above average hit tool with power and speed. I am a believer.

George: 10t, h2h, Steele just got waived in my league, who does he kick off current team if i add, sp: burnes, skubal, nola, ragans, valdez, ryan, a good problem to have

Justin Mason: Wow this is tough because your rotation is so good. Valdez, I guess

KC PAIN: 1) More of a rant….why do I keep hearing Tigers fans/analysts/fans of other teams keep talking about moving Skubal?  Still under control for another 2 years and a Cy Young runner.  Just why?!   2). Actual Q, is there anyone on that team aside from Flaherty (I assume he is traded) you could move for prospects?  Seems like none of the arms developed, Manning, Madden, Flores, etc., aside from Jobe and he aint moving.

Justin Mason: I wouldn’t move Skubal if I was the GM unless I was getting a ton back in return. They may be trying to leverage a slow market into a haul in return. He does have a recent injury history so maybe they think they can cash in now before he gets hurt? I would just hold him and see what happens, but I guess that is why I am chatting here and not in a front office.

Colton: Saw someone call Lawrence Butler, Larry Bonds earlier and it gave me a good laugh. Thought you’d enjoy it too lol

Justin Mason: I love that lol

Justin Mason: I hope he can keep it up. I picked him up in a few leagues last week.

Justin Mason: Point awarded as well!

George: Lost Albies yesterday, have Nico on roster to step in, was offered Stott for Albies this morning by 1st place team, thoughts ?

Justin Mason: I assume this is a keeper league. I would do this if I was competing for this season, but if I am a middle of the pack team, I am holding albies.

Going For It: 13tm std roto
I offered Wood (12rd) and Gil (22rd) for Castillo, Peralta, and Horwitz. I need SP and some AVG help. Is this ok?

Justin Mason: I wouldn’t do this in a keeper tbh. I think Wood is going to be special and I love Gil

Yeehaw: I can imagine the Rangers deciding this isn’t their year and trading Yates.  Is there any scenario where they give Robertson or Leclerc the job, or would those guys also get traded if they’re playing for next year?

Justin Mason: With them only being five games back in the division, I don’t see them selling the year after winning the World Series.

KC PAIN: 18 team dynasty – Bibee + Parker + Painter for Cease?  Too much?

Justin Mason: yes

Yankee E: Prefer Ginkel or Puk in saves/holds?  Puk is SP/RP and could be the closer; Ginkel may be the better pitcher.

Justin Mason: Puk

Paddy: QS league. Please rank Rodon, Nestor, Gavin Williams, Baz, Bassit

Justin Mason: Rodon, Bassitt, Nestor, Baz, Williams

Down by the River Ryan: Rather add River Ryan or Jeffrey Springs? 12 team league

Justin Mason: Springs

jj: strider didn’t get TJ did he?

Justin Mason: Good catch! I thought he did, but he got the internal brace surgery

JG: Hope Garcia gets traded with Estevez as well.

Justin Mason: I think he will

Dirt McGirt: No way Olson stays this bad,  does he?

Justin Mason: No, I think he will be fine, but I just dont think he returns the draft day value.

Justin Mason: Not much time left but a ton of questions so I will speed round things a bit.

Guest: Eflin has been killing me all year, but is he droppable in a 12-team mixed league?

Justin Mason: No, I still believe in him

RAGBRAI: Could Scott and Puk both get traded thus putting Faucher in line for saves? Asking for a friend.

Justin Mason: I don’t think Puk gets moved

Nova Knicks: Can Langford stud from this point forward? Will he?

Justin Mason: I think he can. He has a ton of talent and the underlying numbers are pretty intriguiing.

JasonKendall: Tanner Scott – will he be worth holding after the Trade Deadline? Does he get the closer role, or will he be a setup man?

Justin Mason: I think he will be a set up man tbh

Sandberg: What exquisite torture the trade deadline in a single-league league!

Justin Mason: I think all Mono leagues should allow you to keep stats of the players traded away to other leagues, but I know that is unpopular.

James: Drop Albies ? Current 3 IL slots taken up by Casas, Bichette and Harris

Justin Mason: in a redraft, yes

KC PAIN: Orioles hurting their prospect value w their OF?  Kjerstad, Stowers, Cowser,Norby getting the run around w PT.

Justin Mason: Yeah, I hate this for them, but they are just so stacked. Hopefully they trade some away at the deadline

Yeehaw: Am I crazy for thinking Mason Miller will not getting traded?  The price seems like it will be insane and he’s got the injury history.  Trying to decide if I should trade him for a lesser closer (SV and ERA only pitcher categories that matter for me) just to be safe…

Justin Mason: I don’t think he will

Yeehaw: Surprised to see you backing Vaughn.  .268 OBP over last 20 games (his second atrocious run this season) once again has me ready to cut bait.  And CHW lineup gonna be a ghost town in 10 days.

Justin Mason: Still makes good contact in that time frame and has a 13% barrel rate. .231 BABIP hurting him

Funny Business: Is there a term for when you drop a guy and he goes off the next day or you pick up a player on a heater and he strikes out 3-4 times in the first game?  I feel like these situations should be called something.

Justin Mason: We call that a Sporer Special

CesarGeronimo: Is Luis Ortiz worth the time in a 10 team mixed?

Justin Mason: I think he is a streamer in that size league

Guest: So Kershaw over Scherzer ROS for a trade?

Justin Mason: yes

Kris Bubic: Will I be fantasy relevant as either a starter or a reliever this year in a Svs+Holds league? I’m a good spec play, right?

Justin Mason: No

Waive Rider: Thoughts on Alex Cobb and/or Starling Marte coming back from IL?

Justin Mason: Cobb looked good in his last rehab start. I picked him up in a number of leagues last week.

Justin Mason: Haven’t been tracking Marte though

JG: Birdsong stay in the rotation with Ray & Cobb coming back ?

Justin Mason: I think it is pretty though for him unless he shoves his next start or there is an injury

Timmy: Thoughts on Chourio, can he be a trusted option in 12 teams going forward?

Justin Mason: I think there will be ups and downs, but I would gamble on his upside.

Nova Knicks: Do you see Robert Garcia or Jason Adam getting the closing gig after deadline?

Justin Mason: I think both could but Garcia is more likely.

Guest: Robles or Bader, OBP

Justin Mason: Robles

Timmy: Is Christian Scott worth holding for rest of season?

Justin Mason: yes

Jazz: If Chisholm gets traded, then odds he adds 2B eligibility for next year?

Justin Mason: 60%

Justin Mason: just depends on where he goes

Long question.: In my AL Only league we draft prospects (can keep 9 as a “taxi squad”). These don’t need to be activated until they hit 50IP or 150AB. My pitching has been awful and I’m close to packing it in and selling for next year. I’ve got Drew Thorpe. Would you activate him? (He seems likely to hit 50IP this season, the risk is if he gets hurt and doesn’t I’ll have to decide to keep or cut him as part of my 9 regular keepers next year instead of taxi squad).

Justin Mason: If you are close to packing it in, I wouldn’t

Pete: Will David Hamilton be a regular for Boston next season. Trying to determine if he would be a good keeper.

Justin Mason: I think he should be

JLPicard: Hey, thanks for the chats. 7×7 keep 10. I ship Burnes for Castillo, Semien & and an early pick. Pieces going back are non keepers, in my opinion. Thanks again

Justin Mason: I would do that

$16 Rooker: 12 Team AL Only keeper ($260 budget). How nervous ought I be about Brent Rooker getting traded to an NL team? Does the concern make him tradeable in the (likely) event I am a seller this year?

Justin Mason: Yeah, they have to trade him and I have no idea where he goes.

12T Points: For end of bench guys, how would you rank Luis Ortiz, Christian Scott, Bobby Miller, River Ryan? Hesitant to cut Bobby based on perceived upside – Scott has had some decent hype but not much results to show for it.

Justin Mason: Miller, Ortiz, Scott, Ryan

Biscuit: 16tm Dynasty – just lost Fried (who is unlikely to be a keeper next year). In contention, with a decent rotation around him, but don’t want to rest on our laurels. Also have been trying to patch up C2 for a while now. Would you rather trade for Gausman/Big Dumper or Baz/Realmuto?

Justin Mason: Gausman side

AL-only Hamlet: To trade my trade-rumored players, or not to trade them, that is the question:

Whether tis nobler to suffer the outrageous fortune of Crochet to the Dodgers and Rooker to the Phillies,

Or to take arms against a sea of rumors and by dumping my players, end them.

To trade, perchance to fleece – ay, there’s the rub:

For in that trade what fleecings may come

When Eflin shuffles off this AL-only coil

But that dread, of something after the deadline

The undiscovered country, from whose bourn

Only NL-players return, puzzles the will

And makes us rather bear the ill rumors we have

Than fly to others that we know not of.

Justin Mason: This is beautifully written. I don’t know if it is a question, but I do love it

Zorro: Rather River Ryan in a 14 team redraft H2h or Schwellenbach?

Justin Mason: Schwellebach

STL Logjam: What’s your best guess regarding how STL’s playing time will shake out once Edman returns? Who gets the short-end?

Justin Mason: Siani loses the time.

Guest: What are your thoughts on a Mayo/Jared Jones for Crochet/James Wood trade in a fantasy dynasty league?

Justin Mason: Give me the Wood side

Guest: Rice, Butler, Toglia:  Which 3-HR-game wonder would you prefer ROS in a 12 team mixed league?

Justin Mason: Toglia

Justin Mason: Like all three tho

Taylor: If Jackson Holliday comes back up in say late August; Rosterable in 15-team mix? Or will he continue to swing and miss at Sporer levels?

Justin Mason: He is so young, but I believe in the talent. So I would say he should be much better than what we saw and not nearly Sporerian type levels.

James: Steer for L. Robert Jr ?

Justin Mason: yes

Justin Mason: Alright, I have to wrap up. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!