Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – July 17th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Evan: Justin please say some kind words about my main man Chas McCormick

Justin Mason: Has he become a better player since NFBC changed his glorious picture? I little bit, but mostly it is about opportunity. If he keeps playing regularly, I think he is a valuable piece in 12-team mixed and deeper.

alex: once bradon drury comes off the IL, do you prefer him over Votto or Casas? h2h ops league

Justin Mason: I think that is tough. I could cut Votto for him.

Hank Scorpio: Hey Justin. I need a team streamer this week in my 12tm roto to cover Eloy going down. I’m between running J. Walker out there with tough matchups and at least 3 LHPs which he doesn’t hit well (.696 OPS) or rolling the dice on Mike Ford against another tough slate, but all RHP which he mashes (.925 OPS)

Justin Mason: I think I would roll with Ford right now.

trade season: Justin, my guess is this will be a slower deadline than in the past few seasons.  Up and coming teams relying on their farm systems will be less likely to trade top prospects for immediate help, and some 2nd division teams expect to compete next year so they will trim but not completely rebuild.  Your thoughts,     Thanks!

Justin Mason: I think it may be a slower deadline with so many teams still in the hunt, but the prices might be huge too because of this. I am really interested to see what NL Central teams do like the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates. I wonder if we see a bunch of teams just hold pat because they aren’t really contenders, but are still in the mix (i.e. Giants, Yankees, Marlins, Angels)

alex: can CES be a difference maker down the stretch in shallow leagues? or too much swing and miss?

Justin Mason: HE definitely can, but there is risk because of the swing and miss. In those formats, I tend to gamble with his profile more because he can be so valuable if everything breaks his way for a couple months.

alex: trying to pinpoint whats been going on with jon gray. i dont see anything wrong under the hood but he hasn’t been very good for a bit now. would you move on from him for taj, kutter or gavin williams?

Justin Mason: I think this is part natural regression, but I also always worry about health with Gray. I have no issue dropping him for someone like Williams.

I Used to be Mel Clarke: Are you fine cutting bait on Alejandro Kirk in a 16-team league? He’s been just brutal and I have replaced him with Henry Davis.

Justin Mason: Sure

Chip: In general, do you like steady-Eddy  guys as bench bats? Or do you want high-risk, high-reward guys who might pop?What do you think of Lourdes G. and Hays as bench bats in a 12-team H2H? Dropped Kelenic and Outman because te

Justin Mason: I want production over volatility in H2H. I would be happy with those moves.

A concerned commish: Hey Justin! I am in pretty desperate need of advice on this situation. I am currently the commissioner of a 6×6, 6 player keeper league. This is year 12 of our league. We just had a trade go through from one of the bottom ranked teams to one of the top ranked teams. I want to note that we have never had a trade vetoed in league history, but the league is calling for me to cancel this trade. The manager at the bottom has agreed to trade Jose Ramirez, Luis Robert, Jesus Luzardo, and Logan Gilbert for Julio Rodriguez. Obviously, Rodriguez is still the prize and his keeper value next year will be around a 4th or 5th pick. JRam will be 1st/2nd, LBob will be about 3rd, and both pitchers will be around 8-12.
The issue here is that I know there was no collusion, and as a league comish I feel like I need to uphold a trade when two managers agree without collusion. Any thoughts would be appreciated!

Justin Mason: I understand why people are upset, but if there is no collusion, you shouldn’t veto a trade. Bad trades happen. We shouldn’t play the valuation game for other managers. Let people make their moves, even if they are mistakes in the short or long term.

alex: are we witnessing a casas breakout? should he be rostered in all formats at this point?

Justin Mason: To be honest, I think we might be. He is making really nice in zone contact and not swinging out of the zone. I think we could be looking at a guy that explodes in the second half.

Oddball Herrera: Buying a CJ Abrams breakout-to-relevancy or are we just witnessing a hot streak?

Justin Mason: A little of both? Abrams has a ton of talent in the bat, but the aggressive approach will always have big ups and downs. Since the beginning of June, he is making good in zone contact, but he still swings too much out of the zone and hits the ball a fair amount on the ground. Enjoy the streak, but know it probably is followed by a slump.

Matt W.: Hope you enjoyed your vacation. Made a bold move this morning in my 12 team Ottoneu points league cutting Aaron Nola. Nola is third in baseball in homeruns allowed. This points league penalizes harshly homeruns allowed -12.3 points. Am I going to regret this move?

Justin Mason: I am not an Ottoneu guy, but I think you probably regret this one.

alex: whats up with taj? dude started well but has been crap recently

Justin Mason: I think this is partly a pitch mix issue and a execution issue. No way around the spotty command. He needs to hit his spots better with the fastball and cutter. However, the curve has been good and needs to be thrown more. If any organization can make the necessary adjustments, its the Rays.

Boston Expatriots: Drop MJ for Endy?

Justin Mason: Nah

young SPs: Please rank ROS (standard 10 team NL): Br. Garrett,  Bobby Miller,  Christopher Sanchez, E Sheehan.  Thanks

Justin Mason: Garrett, Miller, Sheehan, Sanchez

alex: anyone coming off the IL in the next 30 days that you are especially excited about?

Justin Mason: It would be really nice to get Woodruff back at some point lol. I have stashed Cruz, Sale, Hendriks, Rogers, Bae and Hayes in a number of spots.

Paul Sporer: Why do I hate Alex Cobb so much?

Justin Mason: Do you? I thought you liked him!

DC: Please say anything about my guy Tim Anderson (Do the White Sox still believe – he’s being left at the top of the lineup)?

Justin Mason: Man, I don’t know what is going on with him. Clearly the White Sox either still believe or are hoping to inflate his trade value. I probably would have dropped him in 10 and 12 team leagues by now.

Bomo: In a 10 team h2h league, 5×5 + QS’s, and OPS, how concerned should I be with the lack of innings per start from Braxton Garrett and Tarik Skubal (especially for the W’s and QS’s) or is the quality enough to ignore those deficiencies for now?

Justin Mason: With Garrett, yes. With Skubal, no.

Guest: 10 team ESPN custom pts H2H (Strikeouts only -0.25 pts). Would you drop any for CES? Votto, Friedl, Wade Jr., Arcia (he’s starting while Dansby out).

Justin Mason: Votto or Wade, yes

JW: You starting CES this week, or wait and see?  Jose Abreu, with a nice schedule, would be the alternative. 12 tm 5×5

Justin Mason: I think I am with seven games at home and a pretty nice set of matchups.

JW: Stott or Gorman at 2B this week?

Justin Mason: Stott

Stuart: will anyone ever be able to explain the difference between Isaac Paredes real life and statcast?

Justin Mason: Nope, but I would appreciate him keeping it up the rest of the season so I can continue to benefit. He can fall apart next year.

Sexton: Alex Manoah, tell me how you feel about him. Is it too risky to leave him on the wire in a 10 team league with 5sp and 2 P slots, just in case he has somehow figured it out?

Justin Mason: I hate to say it, but I would roster him but be really careful about when I use him. The talent is in there.

JW: Thank you in advance for all your advice.

Justin Mason: Thank you!

Vince: What do you foresee for CES rest of season? Will he be useful in OBP leagues? Is the playing time there?

Justin Mason: I think the playing time will be there if he hits. The question is who do the Reds trade for pitching? India?

Jasmine Bae: Hi, Justin! Do you, like me, get a headache trying to determine which TB players are worth rostering? (All due to the Rays mix/matching approach.)

When do you suspect that players like Aranda and Mead will be worth having in 12-team contexts, re-draft and dynasty?

Thanks!

Justin Mason: This is why I try and avoid a lot of rays players unless the price is right. I think Aranda will continue to be blocked, but Mead should break into the lineup at some point. Just might be next year.

Guest: Do you like Ranger Suarez, Tarik Skubal, or JP Sears best in a 12 team mixed standard scoring league?

Justin Mason: Suarez

Guest: Is it time to just cut ties with eloy? Hurting me week after week. 12t hth

Justin Mason: I think it is defensible, but I have a hard time doing it.

Warren: 10 tm 7×7 (OPS, XBH, BAA, QS)…I traded my Sandy and Starling for Correa and Luzardo…how’d I do?

Justin Mason: Not a fan.

Pedro: Justin:  your thoughts on Jordan Diaz?  Lots of power, decent K rate, just 22 and no one blocking him in Oak.  I’m thinking of cutting DLM for him in an AL only 5×5.  Thanks in advance

Justin Mason: I think the K rate is pretty fraudulent. Swings a ton and misses a lot. Going to be hot and cold and hard to predict. I can understand making that move because LeMaheiu has been so bad though.

Medium Chungus: Im currently stashing Harry Ford in my 20 team dynasty. I dont expect him to be called up this season, but do you think he makes his debut in 2024? If he would just be burning a roster spot for another whole season, i think id be better off using that spot on someone who can help sooner.

Justin Mason: I think he may be up in the second half next year. He is still in A ball and while the power/speed is good, I think there are still come contact and defensive issues that could take a bit

Guest: My IL slots are full and now have one too many injured players than available slots. SB are a knife-fight in my deep 16 teamer. Is Mondesi a drop?

Justin Mason: yes

Kevin: Any sneaky source for steals that doesn’t also come attached to a 650 OPS?

Justin Mason: Zach Gelof might be and he just got called back up. Ji Hwan Bae should be back soon.

George: I primarily want SB from the following options: Berti, Walls, Gelof. Which 2 do you like the best?

Justin Mason: Walls and Gelof

Mooseknuckle Curve: I’ve been rolling with both Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter the past few weeks and I’ve been loving it!  Can they keep this up?

Justin Mason: I think Carpenter can but am less convinced that Torkelson can

Jersey: Kim doesn’t seem to get much love. Any logic to him just now getting acclimated to MLB pitching and he’ll be solid moving forward?

Justin Mason: I think he is pretty overlooked. He is on pace of a quiet monster season and leafing off for an offense that should be better in the second half.

HappyFunBall: 12xRoto, standard cats but QS instead of W. Innings limit means it sucks when a starter doesn’t go at least 6. Need to make room for CES and Logan Allen getting called up.

Rank, please: Abbott, Allen, German, Heaney.

I feel like Heaney has to get gone. He’s not even a “good against bad lineups” guy like German. He’s just a random number generator. But also Allen was having real trouble getting enough distance before he was sent down. Decisions!

Justin Mason: Abbott, Allen, Heaney, German

Billy Chapel: Asking you to read the tea leaves on Jackson Chourio. He has underwhelmed at AA. It looks like he’s being exposed on the outside of the plate, which has really killed his prodigious power numbers (<.200 iso). In a dynasty league (5×4 roto), if you have to cut one of Chourio, Wood, Lawlar this season, which one has the least probable path to stardom.

Justin Mason: I don’t want to cut any of them to be honest. If I have to cut one, it is Lawlar.

Abe: How would you rank these SPs in H2H categories: Lynn, Civale, Grayson Rodriguez, Gavin Williams

Justin Mason: Lynn, Rodriguez, Williams, Civale

Stein: What’s up with Luis Severino and is there hope he regains form? (law of averages thinking basically)

Justin Mason: I think he could be hurt. I hate it, but he is not rosterable right now.

Guest: 12 team mixed, standard scoring: You think Tommy Edman or Max Muncy is a better 2B play?

Justin Mason: Depends on what you need. They do different things.

Ronnie Woo Woo: Suzuki has been scuffling. Trade value is super low right now. Am I best to hang onto him and hope the walk and K rates keep him afloat or should I drop him in a 10 team OBP keeper league?

Justin Mason: I can understand moving on in a 10, but I think he is a guy that will bounce back in the second half.

Justin Mason: Ok, I have a ton of questions left and just under 15 minutes. So I am going to speed round things just to get as many answered as possible.

Cubs: which OF do you think is more productive the rest of the season Suzuki or Bellinger?

Justin Mason: Bellinger

Big H: 12 tm h2h. Pick 1 SP for this week: F.Peralta @ATL (Strider), N.Eovaldi @ TBR (Bradley), E.Sheehan BAL, TEX (G.Rod, Dunning)

Justin Mason: Eovaldi

Elly: I have Elly de la Cruz. I f’ing love him after drafting him last year to fill a NA slot. In my keeper league I can sell him for a mint, and, being in 1st place, it’s tempting…but I can’t seem to do it. Is he as special as I think or should I consider trading him? (I hate the flags fly forever argument because there are SO MANY variables that go horribly wrong like injuries, etc)

Justin Mason: If you can get a mint and win your leagues, I understand doing it.

Marlinsdude: What is your 4 year outlook for Eury Perez?

Justin Mason: I think he is a top 20 pitcher in the next year or two.

Cards: Jordan Montgomery is a top-? SP ROS?

Justin Mason: 30

alex: pena was recently dropped. dont need anything specific but are you grabbing him in shallow leagues?

Justin Mason: Nah

Mr Sincere: Think Mason Black might get the call in the 2nd half?

Justin Mason: No idea

Phil: 12 team Ottoneu points league. Would you give up Andrew Abbott and Kyle Harrison for Logan Gilbert. Total salary out/in roughly matches

Justin Mason: Nope

Sam: Ottoneu points league, 12 teams. How would you rank Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, Cristopher Sanchez, Reese Olson? Do you think any are must-adds?

Justin Mason: Crawford, Sanchez, Olson, Houck

HappyFunBall: I’ve found that a good solution for bad trades is to make every trade public for a period (2 days in my league) before it actually goes through, to give other owners a chance to swoop in and make their own offers. That allows a bit of market price enforcement to happen without having to live with the politics of vetoes or approval votes.

Justin Mason: I like this a lot.

Tough Call: How do you feel about cron in a 12T? Should he be owned?

Justin Mason: Yes

ChiSox: Is Luis Robert a legit stud now or still early to say?

Justin Mason: Always has been. Health has kept him from becoming it on paper

seth: pick 3 for this week: Canning (vNYY, vPIT), Cobb (@CIN), Lynn (@MIN), Bibee (vPHI), Ashcraft (vSFG), or MR like King/TyRogers

Justin Mason: Canning, Cobb, Lynn

Guest: Thanks for chatting.  You think Edman, Adames, or Elly de la Cruz as a SS option for a 12-team, standard scoring, mixed league?  De la Cruz has obviously been great, but I’m not sure whether to expect him to keep it up.

Justin Mason: Elly

Kevin: Cristian Javier was a little better last night, but still not great. What are you expecting from him in the 2H?

Justin Mason: I think there are going to be more ups and downs. I am worried the pitch mix isnt working as well anymore. There is arm talent, but I do think he needs to develop a third pitch

Mr Sincere: Why does Stott sit against LHP when he’s done fine against them this year?  Bonus points if you can tell me what Paul and the Tigers have in common

Justin Mason: Teams will always try and get a platoon advantage, but I think they need to trust Stott more.

Justin Mason: Bonus point: Paul and the Tigers are mediocre in the standings and I and the Giants are at the top of them.

Tough Call: Playoff spot locked in. Would you give erod to get sale? Does sale’s upside justify the games played delta?

Justin Mason: I think that is a nice play

Colton: Read an article that the Rays were interested in Flaherty or Montgomery from the Cardinals. If you were in their shoes, how far away would you run given how their last trade has turned out?

Justin Mason: They need pitching so bad right now, the need to do this unfortunately.

Bandon Brelt: hey Justin, now that Eloy is back to his “injured but not on the IL” self, would it be worth dropping him for Steer (just dropped), Lourdes or Hays in roto? I could also keep him on the bench and drop Alzolay or Javier instead

Justin Mason: Glup, I guess I could for Lourdes.

Johnny5Alive: In an NL only and pushing it all in. I have Edwards cabrera about to come off the IL.  I’m in first in most pitching categories. I’m assuming Cabrera can only hurt me. It’s a dynasty roto league. I’ll have two scoring periods to device about activation. What would you do? Is be dropping a good ratio middle reliever

Justin Mason: I can’t imagine dropping him in an NL Only. Someone should want him in a trade

Alex (New Dad): Does an Ohtani raise or lower his ROS value in 10tm H2H categories?

Justin Mason: I don’t know how he can raise it, but I don’t think it drops.

Punk in drublic: What are your thoughts regarding Quinn Priester’s call up?

Justin Mason: I am really excited to get eyes on him today

Guest: hi Justin. Thoughts on gelof? I’m in 12 team h2h category league and picked him up but could use another pitcher so wondering if he’s worth having as bench bat.

Justin Mason: Could be a sneaky source of speed. Should have a role moving forwrd.

Michael: What’s up with Contreras not playing this weekend? Is he still an everyday starter?  If not do you think Soderstrom or Endy would be the better pick up?

Justin Mason: I am not worried about him. ‘

Sasha B.: Mason! Quick question from a Miami fan. Are folks overlooking the potential for Xavier Edwards to 1) Get the MLB call and 2) Make an impact? He’s killing it right now in AAA.

Justin Mason: I don’t think he has enough pop to scare Major League pitching. More of a role player than every day guy

Guest: Should I add Bryce Miller and drop Ranger Suarez, Alex Cobb, or Tarik Skubal?  Standard 5×5, 12 teams.

Justin Mason: yes. Drop skubal.

Guest: Why do I draft deGrom, Trout, and Kershaw every year?  Is there, like, a fantasy 12-step program to break my addiction to these injury-plagued erstwhile fantasy standouts?

Justin Mason: We like pain

Justin Mason: Stop chasing upside in leagues in bunches. You can take calculated risk on injury risk guys, but don’t take so many together. It compounds the risk and ends up hurting you more often than not.

JOHNNY: NL 10 TEAM 5X5 I finally picked the right closer in Harvey. Now he’s on the IL. Finnegan is owned & likely traded. Is it worth trying Thompson or Weems? In AZ -Chafin or Castro? Or should I just switch to fantasy shuffleboard?

Justin Mason: Try Thompson. I think he is interesting and could get the gig long term.

Justin Mason: That is all the time I have today. Thank you for chatting with me! Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!