Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – July 15th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Guest: Who’s your pick for the derby?

Justin Mason: I am not a huge derby guy. If I had to bet, I would pick Gunnar Henderson.

Colton: What would be a good get for a Glasnow sell in a dynasty?

Justin Mason: If I was selling Glasnow, I would want a top 10-20 asset.

Burley’s Son: Was offered Freddy Peralta and Kittredge for Burleson and Yandy in a 16th 6×6 league. Seems fair?

Justin Mason: Take that and run

JLPicard: Just a thanks for the CHATS. Was offered Bregman for Ryan –  16 team, 5×5 keep forever. See any upside or kinda a wash. Thanks again.

Justin Mason: Feels pretty equal to me. Might lean Ryan a tad here but I think it is fair

Need Relationship Advice: …but I’ll settle on baseball advice instead. Standard deep league 5×5. Torres or Boegarts. And would you drop Thorpe, Cannon, or Littell for Springs at this point?

Justin Mason: I will take Bogaerts over Torres.

Justin Mason: I don’t think I would drop any of those guys for Springs.

Sidewalk Fried Eggs: Which Phillies stand to lose fantasy value if the Phillies try to upgrade?  I’d like to say Castellanos although he has been better than April/May.  That isnt saying much.

Justin Mason: I would say Rojas if they went out and got an outfielder. Maybe Luis Robert?

Save Spec: I decided to cut Stanek before waiting for the IL stint. How would you rank Brebbia, Joyce, and Shelby Miller for a saves spec?

Justin Mason: Joyce, Brebbia, Miller

Justin Mason: I picked up Joyce in a few leagues last night.

Guest: Thanks for chatting.  Would you drop Bo Bichette for Luis Garcia in a 12-team, 5×5 head-to-head league?

Justin Mason: No

Kate: Do you think Juan Yepez can keep hitting and hold the 1B job rest of season?  If so, is he useful in a 15 team OBP roto?

Justin Mason: I don’t know if he can hold it all year. Really depends on what the Nationals decide to do once Gallo returns.

Bench Bat: OBP league: Malloy, Butler or Angel Martinez?

Justin Mason: Give me the upside of Butler

Sidewalk Fried Eggs: Living near Baltimore, why do I remain skeptical the Orioles will deal for a pitcher?

Justin Mason: I think they have to make at least one move for a pitcher if not two. I think now is the time they can really leverage their prospect strength and go get a stud.

AV Club: Andrew Vaughn had a really fun week last month. I thought he was unlocking something, but maybe something called the locksmith? Keep holding in AL Only OBP league or drop for Schneeman?

Justin Mason: I think I am holding onto to Vaughn. I love his contact ability. Just needs to stay healthy.

Kate: Does Xavier Edwards have enough pop / OBP to be useful in a 15 team OBP roto?  Seems like he might be a 0-5 HR guy, but at least her offers some AVG / OBP upside?

Justin Mason: I think the average/OBP will be there, but there is no pop in his bat.

Kate: I jumped on the Angel Martinez train early and am really happy with what I’ve seen so far.  Seems like he’ll get on base at a pretty solid rate, but does he have enough power / speed to stay relevant in a 15?

Justin Mason: I think he can be an accumulator if given regular at bats. Right now he is playing everyday and batting second so I think this is 15 team viable.

Eh’s?: I can’t get a handle on these A’s starters. Just when I think Spence is the best, he craps the bed and Estes soars. Then they flip-flop and it’s Hogan or Medina who has a decent start. Would you trust any of them for more than a spot start?

Justin Mason: Probably not. I dropped Spence in all the leagues I had him in. I am still team streaming Sears but Estes is probably nothing more than a streamer.

Kate: Odds Miguel Vargas gets moved at the deadline to a team that will play him everyday?

Justin Mason: 35%

Malloyable: Is JH Malloy turning things around, or are the few recent home runs just random variance when he’s still striking out?

Justin Mason: Malloy just doesn’t make consistent enough contact to make this work long term. I think this is just a hot stretch.

Kate: What do you think the odds are the Rockies trade German Marquez (either at the deadline or in the offseason)?  Came back from TJ yesterday and could be interesting if moved literally anywhere else.

Justin Mason: I think he is more likely to be held by the rockies. Right now his value isn’t high enough to warrant them moving him considering his deal.

Kate: Does Ian Anderson get a rotation spot once he’s fully ramped up?  Or will he need to hang out in AAA and wait for an injury?

Justin Mason: Probably hangs in AAA

First Time Caller: Still love Pasquantino’s underlying #s. But will good results ever follow?

Justin Mason: I may go to my grave believing in Vinnie P, but I have to trust that the core skills will translate at some point.

Kate: Toglia had another huge day yesterday. The barrel rate is fantastica and the plate discipline numbers have improved enough that it seems like he could stick.  How much of the awful AVG / OBP is bad luck (.180 BABIP!) and how much of that is just a bad hit tool / approach?  Where do you think his true talent ends up in terms of AVG / OBP?

Justin Mason: He is definitely getting unlucky. xBA is .244 and he is making close to league average zone contact. I think he could be a .240-.245 hitter with that great pop

Insert Witty Name Here: Can you rank my RPs for saves after the trade deadline? A. Diaz, Fairbanks, Chapman, Brad Lidge, T. Scott, Hoffman, Puk, Joyce?

Justin Mason: Diaz, Fairbanks, Hoffman, Puk, Scott, Joyce, Chapman

Justin Mason: Point awarded for throwing lidge in there!

Jett: Is there hope for Gleyber turning things around and having the type of second half we’d expect? Say it’s going to happen…

Justin Mason: He is making more in zone contact over the last month which is intriguing. Still not hitting the ball very hard though. Maybe he is better, but still not the guy he was previously?

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Thanks as always.  I traded Flaherty for Francisco Alvarez in a long term 12 team keeper.  Did I do meh? Good? Or Great?

Justin Mason: Good

Vince: What to expect from Jared Jones ROS?

Justin Mason: Hard to know with the injury and the Pirates likely managing him down the stretch. Really depends on how Pittsburgh fairs as a team. If they are competitive, then they could let him go a bit more than I would normally expect.

Kate: How worried are you about Rodon?  Last couple weeks have been awful, but he’s still getting a ton of whiffs and the velo had been good.

Justin Mason: I am pretty worried whenever Rodon struggles because of his health track record. The velo has been there, but the command and control have not. I worry there is an injury again

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Rank S.Horwitz, X.Edwards, Brooks Lee rest of season?

Justin Mason: Horwitz, Lee, Edwards

Jay: Want to add Toglia for the next week cuz 6 warm weather games at Coors, but not sure who to drop between Gleyber, Gimenez, or Castro.

Justin Mason: Gleyber

Carmine: 12 team mixed weekly H2H – I am still holding on to Goldy and hoping he’ll be reliable come playoff time.  Is this a smart move?  Wondering if guys like Lawrence Butler and Toglia are worth grabbing over him.  Thank you

Justin Mason: I would still hold Goldy

Sidewalk Fried Eggs: Has there ever been a study done on HR/PA changes for people who participate in the homerun derby? Personally, I dont think it matters to their “2nd half” if they participated.

Justin Mason: I believe there has been but it was a while ago. I think while the data showed that the was a dip in the second half, I think it can be attributed to the majority of HR Derby participants having big first halves which is why they are often chosen for the contest in the first place and that the dips were often just natural regression and not attributed to the contest itself

James: Two Arizona guys – are Jordan Montgomery or Eduardo Rodrigues reasonable guys to add and stash on IL for second half?  Do you expect either to make an impact?

Justin Mason: As much as I loved Monty coming into the season, I don’t think I would gamble on him as a stash. He has just looked so bad that I think it is a lost season. E-Rod is interesting and I did have him in a number of my bid groups but ended up getting Joyce or Joe Musgrove over him.

Changes: Any idea which version of the baseball we’ll be seeing in the 2nd half?

Justin Mason: Only God knows

Insert Witty Name Here: In an 12 team innings cap league, I have 375 innings left. My SPs are Hunter Greene, M. King, Pfaadt, and Jared Jones on IL. I need HRs and RBIs badly, is it wise to offer them in trades and try to stream the rest of the way? I’m doing well in the pitching categories already.

Justin Mason: Absolutely. Make sure you are doing the math correctly on where you risk losing ground or gaining it, but now is the time to make those moves.

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: Burleson > Carroll in redraft points league. Y or N?

Justin Mason: no

Rick M: Think Carson Whisenhunt comes up soon and makes a difference? My SP needs help. Is there another prospect or two that you would stash?

Justin Mason: I don’t think Whisenhunt is an impact arm down the stretch. To be honest I don’t see many impact arms coming up this year, but I also am not a prospect guy

Spencer: Rece Hinds thoughts….

Justin Mason: Loud tools, but needs to make more consistent contact. Worthy gamble that I took a shot on in faab this week, but could end up back in the minors quickly too.

Cliff: How would you rank the following for the second half?  Pfaadt, Christian Scott, Soriano, Assad, Abbott – should I hold all in a 12 team mixed?

Justin Mason: Pfaadt, Soriano, Scott, Abbott, Assad

Dan: Cedric Mullins hit .286/.329/.520 in June with 5 SB, then got back to being terrible. RoS projections show 8 HR, 12 SB in a part-time role in the second half. You jumping back on if he’s free? Thanks

Justin Mason: Sure, but I am biased on him

SP Cuse: Shallow points league (QS as valuable as a W).  Drop Christian Scott for Pfaadt, Taillon, manaea, or Reese Olson?

Justin Mason: Pfaadt for me

Tim: Is Detmers a stash at this point? I basically have a free drop and can snag him now. I’m in a 14t H2H dynasty

Justin Mason: I think I would take the gamble. No reason he should be down considering the names in the Angels rotation.

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: I had a verbal offer on the table of my Royce Lewis for his Ragans, and I turned it down the day before Lewis hurt his groin again. FFS! Baseball is killer sometimes

Justin Mason: That burns. I can’t tell you how many times I have been burned like that.

Mitch: Any concerns with Jake Irvin?

Justin Mason: I am starting to wonder if he is turning into a bit of a pumpkin. All of a sudden his walk rate and home run rate have jumped this month. Part of it is just the last two starts so I don’t want to overreact, but if he struggles out of the break, then I would be very worried.

Catcher Conundrum: Can you rank Bo, Jeffers, Bailey, Sean Murphy, and Elias Diaz ROS for points leagues?

Justin Mason: Murphy, Bailey, Naylor, Jeffers, Diaz

Nick: Do you think Muncy is droppable in a 12-team mixed league?  I’m starting to think he’ll never return, and I could stash someone like Marte on my IL instead.

Justin Mason: yes

RIckey: How are you feeling about Bryan Woo? If I have to choose between him and Robbie Ray when he’s activated, who do you like?

Justin Mason: Give me woo

Justin Mason: I am worried on Woo long term, but I don’t expect that Ray will be more than a multi-inning guy once he is back and pitchers normally struggle with command and control coming off of TJ

At a Bloss: Does Bloss get enough turns in the rotation to be a  good add? Over a Heaney or Estes type?

Justin Mason: I don’t think so

Andy Friedman: Which young dodger OF do you see performing the best going forward, Miguel Vargas, Andy Pages or James Outman?

Justin Mason: I would bet on Pages

Justin Mason: I also could see the Dodgers adding to the outfield at the deadline

Kate: What is Arrighetti’s issue?  Is it just command within the zone?  His zone and f-strike rates are fine and he’s got multiple bat missers.

Justin Mason: His control is really bad. He has a difficult time being able to find the zone pitch to pitch. He is at best a streamer until he figures it out.

Minor League HR Derby: This would be way more interesting to watch than the actual All Star Game.

Justin Mason: You should come to AFL for the AFL Derby. It is a lot of fun.

Guest: Is Randy Arozorena worth trading for, and if so how big should I go? Head to Head weekly keeper league. Not planning to keep. Currently in 1st place by a thin margin

Justin Mason: Over the last month, Arozarena is looking more and more like himself. I think now is a decent time to buy low and hope that he can keep it up. He has increased his z-contact and is making better swing decisions.

Shorts Stopping: I’m debating dropping Volpe or Tovar for a Neto or Winn in a points league.  Would you drop either (or both)?

Justin Mason: I don’t think I would

And Why Is the Answer One?: How many managed fantasy baseball leagues are too many for a healthy life?

Justin Mason: I have too many this season myself. In in the past, I have talked about dropping my number of leagues, but I think 2025 is the year I actually do it.

Pitching Factory Broken: Walker Beuhler left LA to work with private trainers. Is it a bad sign that the Dodgers have so many injured pitchers and now unhappy rehabbers?

Justin Mason: It is definitely not good. We don’t talk about how many pitchers the Dodgers have had that have gotten hurt over the last few years, but it is so hard to know what is actually going on. Might be a isolated thing with Buehler or something mroe.

Guest: do we start seeing a spate of milb promotions this week or more towards the deadline

Justin Mason: More towards the deadline

Chip: In second place in my redraft H2H league. When Friedl comes off the IL, I need to drop either him or Wood. Which one helps me win the playoffs in September?

Justin Mason: Keep Wood

Devin Mann: Louisville product with decent pedigree and production. Do I get a shot in KC this year?

Justin Mason: I think he should get a shot at some point

Hot Take Alert: Let’s not award “Rece Hinds” the MVP just yet

Justin Mason: Agreed lol

RIckey: Do you think Keider Montero is worth gambling on in deeper leagues?

Justin Mason: only as a streamer

Guest: Carroll’s “outburst” of 3 HR in 7 days was nice to see, but no moonshots like he had even in last year’s playoffs. still, maybe he can get to 12-15 by year’s end after all?

Justin Mason: I think health is the only concern. Seems like he is starting to look better and maybe the second half is worth buying on.

El Zorro: Caminero or Baty for the rest of the year?

Justin Mason: Caminero

Colton: *The ghost of Tovar Stans haunt you*

Colton: It’s me, I’m the Tovar Stan. Consider yourself haunted

Justin Mason: looooooooool

Justin Mason: Point awarded

Scrounging saves: Who’s replacing Estevez at closer when he’s trade?  Garcia also looks like trade bait.  Joyce?  Or just a mess

Justin Mason: I picked up Joyce in a few leagues yesterday

Why not Zoidberg?: Traded Skenes for Tatis in a standard 8 team h2h when I thought Tatis was going to make it back right after the break. Still a decent return in your mind?

Justin Mason: I think it is ok. Especially if the Pirates manage Skenes down the stretch

Idiotic Failson: Is Jasson Dominguez still a valuable dynasty asset? I offered him and a pitcher for Mookie at a fairly cuttable price (I’m trying to go all in) and was promptly rejected. I can’t tell which side is misvaluing their assets.

Justin Mason: I think he still has a good amount of long term value, so this doesn’t seem out of pocket.

Scrounging saves: AL only here, is there gonna be an impact SP coming over from the NL?  I’m not seeing one…

Justin Mason: I don’t either tbh. Maybe the Cubs move Taillon? probably not. Could the Nationals move a starter? The Giants try and move Snell?

Justin Mason: Not much time left and a ton of questions so I will speed round things to the best of my ability.

Foosball: How are your football drafts going this year?

Justin Mason: I did my Scott Fish Bowl draft on Saturday. Only draft I have done so far. Don’t play nearly as much football since baseball is a year round thing for me.

Bony M: Care to make predictions on new closers post-trade deadline?

Justin Mason: Joyce in LAA, Robert Garcia in WAS, Puk in MIA, Banks in CHW?

Fireman: Hi Justin, should I hold Alvarado in saves only or drop for a spec dude like Joyce or Puk? Tha

Justin Mason: I dropped him last night for Joyce

Fireman: thank you, Justin!

Justin Mason: Thank you!

Colton: River Ryan coming up after the break, spec him over Christian Scott? Much better team context and the Dodgers guys always seem to just work

Justin Mason: I prefer Scott

Why not Zoidberg?: Looking for a placeholder until Tatis and Harris II are back. Out of Lawrence Butler, Bryan De La Cruz, Toglia, or Palacios, who strikes you as the best add?

Justin Mason: Toglia

Dick: Better ROS: Angel Martinez, Brooks Lee, or Spencer Horwitz? Points league.

Justin Mason: Horwitz

Bass: What do you think of OF Matt Wallner?

Justin Mason: Picked him up in a few leagues last night. Just needs playing time

Keith: ROS preference in a 12 team points league w/ strikeout penalty – James Wood, Nick Castellano and Mookie Betts

Justin Mason: Mookie

Just Jim: Is it me, or does your podcast partner in crime, Paul Sporer, sound a lot like Andy Dick. Once you hear it, you can’t unhear it 😛

Justin Mason: OMG. I am brining this up on the pod today

Guest: what are we even supposed to do Wednesday and Thursday this week

Justin Mason: I don’t know man. I guess spend time with my family or something

Guest: 18 team dynasty 6×6 Mayo owner. Do you think he is in their future plans or a trade piece?  Im guessing if he is in Baltimore a callup wont happen until roster expand?

Justin Mason: I think he is in the plans for after the deadline in Baltimore

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Now rank Swanson with Horwitz, Lee, Edwards?

Justin Mason: Swanson first

Casee: 15 team standard H2H redraft. Please rank Helliot, Wallner, Toglia rest of season

Justin Mason: Ramos, Toglia, Wallner

tortycraig: Drop Varsho or Donovan for Bichette? 14 team, newly on the wire, seems like it’d be crazy not to take a flyer?

Justin Mason: Drop Varsho

Spaceman: Dodgers bring up RIVER RYAN. Will we see the Mississippi River or a meandering brook?

Justin Mason: Meandering Brook

Guest: What would you pay for Royce Lewis in dynasty 18 teamer?  Ive been trying to get, but feel price is too high.  Asking is a top 120 player + something else.  Lewis + Crews for my Holliday.  Lewis for Bibee.  Lewis for Doyle + Keller.  I should just move along, right?

Justin Mason: I would take that Keller deal probably

Guest: Seems Mitch Garver inhaled the Seattle anti offense gas when he signed.  Is he worth any format

Justin Mason: Not really

Guest: JTurner is killing me in 5×5 OBP Roto league. Would you replace him? Options are Burger, Singleton, Yepez, Wade or Seth Brown. I know Turner is still good for OBP, but I need HR’s, R, and RBI’s.

Justin Mason: Singleton

Keith: When should a leagues trade deadline be? Why is the answer not 2 weeks ago with an additional July 4th trade day?

Justin Mason: I personally like late deadlines. I always do the week after the trade deadline in my redraft leagues and Sept 1 in keeper. Keep people active as long as possible

Keith: Where can I learn to ask better questions?

Justin Mason: I think they have a school for that. I learned at DINFOS

Justin Mason: Thank you for chatting with me! Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!