Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 8th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Pedro: Hey Justin.  I can keep Bo Bichette at $25 in an AL only 5×5 league?  How much profit (if any) do you think he’s likely to return?  Thanks in advance.

Justin Mason: I think a lot of his value will be tied up in whether or not he starts running again. Hard to see him get back to being a $30 player if he only steals five bases again. Im hopeful that he will but right now he is a power/average guy that has a nice floor but a capped ceiling.

Win Win Win: Thoughts on Keaton Winn for 2024? Seems like swing and miss stuff, good ballpark and maybe a rotation spot to start the season?

Justin Mason: I think as of now Winn has a rotation spot but that is dependent on what the Giants do the rest of this offseason. The stuff is pretty good and I think there is some really interesting upside in the profile. I think he is a really nice gamble at the ADP as long as they don’t bring in multiple starters in the next month or two.

E: Have to keep 3 of the following in a 12 team, 5×5 auction format:  $14 Jhoan Duran, $1 Tanner Scott (already have $9 Devin Williams), $19 Yelich, $8 Josh Lowe, $1 Chas McCormick, $1 Kerry Carpenter. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Lowe, Duran, Yelich

Yaz fan: How good will the Bosox outfield youth be this year?  Rafeala? Abreu?  Will Yoshida put a whole year together? He seemed to wilt at the end.

Justin Mason: I am interested to see what the Red Sox do rest of the offseason. I think Abreu has a role right now, but Rafaela may be the odd man out which is disappointing because I am very intrigued by his upside. Yoshida is one that I am really interested in. I think of last year as a kind of transition year and he could really take off if given another chance to hit second

seth: steamer projections for the Reds are ROUGH, do you see any big values to be had? or staying away from the sophomore slump risk?

Justin Mason: I don’t know if there are many big values because the ADPs on most of the Reds hitters are pretty high. The problem is there are too many interesting guys which means someone (or multiple people) is the odd man out or everyone loses some playing time to get everyone in. I really want to see them trade one or two guys.

Nick: What are your projections for Sean Manaea this year now that he has signed with the Mets?

Justin Mason: I really like Manaea in NY. If healthy, he could be a 150 inning guy that gives a lot of strikeouts and a decent ERA. I think he has a starting spot locked in and just needs to stay on the field.

Guest: Expectations for Torkelson in ’24? What’s the likelihood he winds up a top-10 1B?

Justin Mason: I am high on Tork this season. I have him for 32 home runs and a .251 average. I think he is a top 10 guy this year.

Illuminatti: Whats a reasonable 1-for-1 trade return for EDLC in a H2H dynasty league? Im worried the AVG will crater , Ks pile up, and he will not live up to the hype.

Justin Mason: I want a top 20 bat for him if not more.

MrMet: Is Isaac Paredes an example of a mirage where the counting stats aren’t supported by the underlying Statcast metrics? Or, does he do something those metrics don’t really capture? Curious about what you think of him in 2024 and beyond?

Justin Mason: I think there will be some natural regression, but I do not think that Paredes falls off. He is a pull guy that takes advantage of the dimensions of his home park. Probably more of a 25+ homer guy than a 30+ but I think he plays every day and hits in a good position in the Rays lineup.

Your Name: O/U on Trout’s games played in ’24?

Justin Mason: 95?

Ohtani: Shohei is going in the first couple rounds of drafts.  Do we really think he is going to be in the lineup on day 1? Where is that info coming from? Must have missed it in the crush of Ohtani news…

Justin Mason: Sounds like he should be ready or close to before Opening Day. This wasn’t a reconstruction and it happened in September so I think a 6 month timetable makes sense.

Colton: The Robbie Ray swap seems like an odd one without any other moves/signings to go along with it. Any thoughts or ideas as to who else they’re going after if anyone? My initial idea was to pair it with Snell and then they’d have a three headed monster at the top of the rotation but who knows what Farhan is thinking

Justin Mason: The Ray trade tells me that the Giants may be more concerned with 2025 and beyond than 2024. Ray won’t be back until the summer at the earliest so I wonder if they just decide to roll with what they have and use this season as another bridge year.

Be a Sport: May I use your forum to say that bad mouthing a trade offer is not productive.  Pre-season evaluators are all over the board.  Most offers are in Good Faith. Accept/Reject/Counter.  Thank you.

Justin Mason: I think the better use of a response is to ask why this trade offer benefits both sides. I think too often when someone offers a trade they do not think about the ramifications for both teams, just their own. I usually don’t even send an offer until I have had a discussion with the person about what they want/need for their team because I don’t want to offer something that may appear insulting.

Insert Witty Name Here: So my time commitment to fantasy baseball has taken a hit (hi Family!). Any tips on how to maximize intelligence gathering on a limited time budget?  Other than these chats of course, invaluable since forever.

Justin Mason: I think the best thing is to become very good at filtering your info. Focus on your very trusted sources of info as opposed to casting a wide net for your information. Then get organized. Spreadsheets and other programs to keep yourself streamlined help a lot.

Richard: Will you admit on the S&B pod that you were wrong on Elly starting at AAA when the season begins and he’s starting at SS everyday?

Justin Mason: I said that I think there is a possibility that it happens. I stand by it until the Reds say otherwise or they make moves that declutter the logjam in the infield.

Jefferson: Just read longenhagen’s write up for SDP. He sounded confident in Drew Thorpe getting starts in the rotation this year. Is he on your radar as a quiet prospect to draft and/or watch?

Justin Mason: I haven’t gotten to my pitching projections quite yet but hopefully will in the next week or two. He is definitely one I need to do more work on. I trust Eric a lot so I would listen to him for sure.

Kingpin: How do you feel about Paul Skenes for 2024 & 2025?

Justin Mason: I think he could be up around midseason this year and could be in the top 25 SPs by 2025 drafts. There is a ton of talent in his arm. Just depends on how aggressive the Pirates want to be with him.

Chuck: It seems like the Pads want Matsui to close. Is that your read as well? Where would you rank him?

Justin Mason: I think he definitely could be the guy but it is probably an open competition to start spring. I think I will probably have him around RP30-40 right around Suarez until we see if one of them or someone else separate from the pack.

RGM: Dodgers unlocked Jason Heyward with a 2nd highest ISO and WRC+ of his career last year. How excited should I be for Dodgers finding a cheat-code for Teoscar?

Justin Mason: I am a little more concerned about Teoscar in LA just because I could see the price jump huge. Unless there is an approach change in spring, I don’t know that this makes him as interesting as the ADP jump will suggest. He definitely gets a value boost, but the market may overreact to that as well.

Pat: What breakdown do you shoot for in a DC generally?  Bats v. SP v. RP?  How many MiLB players?  How many players at each offensive position?

Justin Mason: 3-4 catchers, 6-8 CIs, 6-8M MIs, 8-10 OF. 14-16 SPs, 5-7 RPs.

Justin Mason: I tend to go less risky early on and throughout the draft because you can’t replace injured guys. No more than 5 rookies or injured players. Plate appearances and innings win these leagues. It might feel sexy to take a young prospect over a guaranteed 500 plate appearances, but if you load up on risk, the chances your team hits altogether is slim.

Kingpin: Is Sale really that much worse than Glasnow? They seem similar enough to me that Glasnow shouldn’t go so many rounds (or, in auction, for so many dollars) more than Sale.

Justin Mason: I am not a big Glasnow guy but at this point in their careers, Glasnow is a much better overall pitcher. I think the risk you get little to nothing is about the same for them though and I would not pay the price on Glasnow and I would on Sale because he is so much cheaper.

Alex Fast: Who will be the most fantasy viable pitcher for the Orioles in ’23? What closer tier will Craig Kimbrel be in?

Justin Mason: Hi Alex!

Justin Mason: I think that both Bradish and Grayson are studs and should be treated that way heading into 2024. I am also pretty intrigued by Kremer especially if you can stream him for home starts. Kimbrel will probably be in the third tier of RPs with guys with jobs but shaky skills.

Oj simpson: O/U combined 60 HR for judge/soto

Justin Mason: OVER

Fe Ral: Which Giants players would you be willing to draft this season and which round(s)?

Justin Mason: Doval round 5, Estrada round 10, Lee round 16, Bailey round 25, Cobb, Winn, Yaz, Matos at the end of my draft

Jefferson: I’ve got the number 1 pick in a shallow keeper league, standard 5×5  categories. Both ohanti and acuna are available, I get to keep them for 3 years (they become free agents again after 2026 season). I’m leaning acuna because of the unknown future for ohtani pitching, but it really seems like a toss up

Justin Mason: I think I go Acuna but if it is a daily lineup league then I completely understand taking Ohtani.

Chuck: Which player do you expect to rise the most in drafts between now and Opening Day?

Justin Mason: Probably a guy that could have a huge spring that is young. Oneil Cruz? If he hits like 8 spring bombs all of a sudden he starts going in the top 40. Jackson Holliday, Wyatt Langford and Jackson Chourio could if we get news that they are breaking camp.

AL Central Casting: Question about using an auction calculator for preparation in a keeper league where all the kept players are revealed at once. How do you account for other managers’ keepers, especially when making decisions about your own borderline candidates? Do you make a best guess at who will be kept and take them out of the calculation? With an unknown number of players being kept at (presumably) below market salaries, there will be some inflation, but hard to say how much.

Justin Mason: In keeper leagues like this, I often do a mock keeper list so I can try and figure out the in draft inflation rate. Then I adjust once keepers are announced.

Fe Ral: Have any of the signings during this offseason changed your rankings of a player and which one was the most dramatic?

Justin Mason: I don’t think any of the moves have drastically changed much for me. Definitely like some more than others. For instance, I am pretty excited about Lugo and Wacha getting to pitch in KC. I am mostly out on Nick Martinez and Frankie Montas now that they are in Cincy.

Fe Ral: Which player do you think your wife is most likely to leave you for?

Justin Mason: Kevin Keirmaier

Justin Mason: Or Bryce Harper

Justin Mason: or Kris Bryant

Justin Mason: or any SF Giants

ab: expectations for Josh Jung this year?

Justin Mason: I love Jung. He just needs to stay healthy. If he does, I think 30/100 isn’t out of the question.

juan pierres mustache: Deciding on last keepers from a group of Ober, Wacha, Reese Olson, Maeda, Taj Bradley. Prices all similar, can probably hold 2, focused heavily on this season, FGPts.

Justin Mason: I think I lean Ober and Wacha. Ober for sure

Miguel: Dynasty sim league, using last year’s stats to play the games.
A.Abbott, B.Woo or R.Olson?

Justin Mason: Woo

diadem: What is Lawler’s path to regular ab’s this year?

Justin Mason: Either an injury or he just destroy AAA to start the year. He will be up early.

Guest: Nolan Gorman’s ADP seems fairly low with 2B eligibility. 27 HRs in 464 PAs. Also wasn’t nearly as bad against LHPs as his reputation suggests (130 WRC+). Would you think about pushing him up at all given the power upside?

Justin Mason: I like Gorman, but there is risk to the swing and miss profile.  His BABIP versus lefties was a bit high so I do think there is some platoon risk too. I think the price may be a little low, but there is a ton of risk built into it.

Lindor: Who are some SP (or range in rankings) you would consider for Lindor in a 10-tm H2H dynasty league? Lindor cost is about 11% of cap.

Justin Mason: Maybe like the Bibee, Miller, Eury tier of pitcher.

Nick Pollack: Let me tell you about the dumbest trade offer I just got from this idiot in my league…

Justin Mason: I am still mad at you for this

Illuminatti: Are the NYY really not doing the things they’re not doing? yeesh

Justin Mason: Huh?

Wilco: Do you anticipate any of the 2024 rule changes having any fantasy impact

Justin Mason: I don’t think it’ll have the impact that we saw last year.

Guest: Is giving a long term contract to a player with no MLB experience like Chourio a sign of things to come or a dangerous practice?

Justin Mason: I think it is a win/win deal for the players and the team. Allows young players to make some real money early in their careers and allows to save the team in the long term.

Wilco: $14 Duran over $1 carpenter? Really?

Justin Mason: In a 12-teamer, yes

Draft Strategy: What’s the most you would spend on a player in a 10-team, mixed league auction draft? It’s head to head and we each get to keep 3 players, if that matters.

Justin Mason: Once I come up with my values, I don’t really care about most amount. I stick to my values. If my values say there is a $55 player and I get him for $52 then I am pretty happy. I don’t want to spend too much on a ton of players and get stuck with 15 $1 guys but I have no problem in a shallower format to spend up a few times because there is a lot of value on the wire.

Justin Mason: I have a ton of questions left and not much time so I am going to speed round things.

Vince: Hi and thanks! 12-tm, H2H category …,as 2B, or utility slot, how would you rank, prioritize McLain, Kim and Steer? Any must target?

Justin Mason: McLain, Kim, Steer. McLAin is above the other two by a fair amount.

Colton: Think Glasnow improves his innings total this year? 120 was a career high last year, but I trust the Dodgers to do a great job at managing his workload, especially with the gluttony of ML ready arms they have in their system. 150 too high?

Justin Mason: I think I will have him at about 130-140

Peter: Hi Justin,

Justin Mason: Hi!

Trader Bob: Will Benson or Johan Rojas going forward in dynasty?

Justin Mason: Benson

Injury Prone: Buxton or Sale for 2024, who you got?

Justin Mason: Sale

Peter: Hi Justin, I am in a 15 team roto league and have 3 keepers to choose for Rounds 13-15 out of Braxton Garrett, Ryan Pepiot, Adbert Alzolay, Andrew Abbott, and Kerry Carpenter. Who do you prefer of them?

Justin Mason: Garrett is my favorite. Pepiot and Alzolay are my other two I want

Guest: With signing of teoscor, happens to Miguel vargas?

Justin Mason: Hopefully he is traded

Nick: Thoughts on Will Benson this season?  Do you think he takes another step forward?  His profile excites me if he can keep his Ks down and get enough PA.

Justin Mason: I need to see the Reds trade some guys or he is in a platoon and his upside is capped.

RPB: How are you feeling about drafting Abreu or Bell as your CI in Draft Champions drafts around pick 280ish?

Justin Mason: I like both of them at the price. Rizzo too.

Guest: Would Oswald Peraza be packed in a deal for the Yankees to obtain cease or other SP via trade?

Justin Mason: I think that would make a ton of sense.

Tom: Bobby Miller or Zack Wheeler for the next 2 seasons?

Justin Mason: Wheeler but it is really close.

ab: Do you think DL Hall still has impact starter upsided for 2024?

Justin Mason: Probably not.

JB: Am I trusting Oneil Cruz’s health enough to be one of my keepers?

Justin Mason: Depends on your other options, but he should be healthy.

Fe Ral: How many drafts have you already done and how many do you expect to complete by Opening Day?

Justin Mason: I am three gladiators in and just started my first DC. I expect to have about 15-20 teams

Rickey: Noelvi Marte starting at third on opening day? How many plate appearances do you figure he gets this uear?

Justin Mason: I think he could start the year in the minors TBH

Guest: If you squint hard enough, does Tommy Edman start to look a bit like a right-handed C.J. Abrams?  Are people drafting Abrams too high and Edman too low?

Justin Mason: I don’t think that people are drafting Abrams too high but I do think that Edman is too low.

Jack: When Yariel Rodriguez signs do you seem him as a potential SP?

Justin Mason: To be honest, I don’t know enough about him yet

Would you Rather: You pick 2 for a 10 teamer points league (w/ QS points): Eury, Bobby Miller, or Skubal.  All similar keeper cost

Justin Mason: Miller and Skubal

Guest: Hi Justin.  Who do you like better this year and long term, Casas or J Walker?  Thanks

Justin Mason: Walker

Guest: You discussed O Cruz earlier.  If he has a huge spring, are you amenable to keeping him as an early round pick in roto?

Justin Mason: Depends on how early, but yes.

Guest: The hype is building on Vaughan Grissom (min pick 212).  There’s always the possibility he gets better, but isn’t his current skill level on par with Luis Garcia, who is going at pick 520?

Justin Mason: I think Grissom has better upside and the Red Sox clearly like him if they traded Sale for him. The Nationals seem to hate GArcia.

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: 12 team points league, get to freeze 7 guys as long as you’d like, no penalty. I’ve got Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr, Kyle Tucker, Corbin Carroll, Ozzie Albies, Eury Pérez, and then a scrum for 7th: Trout, Mormont, Senga, Royce Lewis, Cole Ragans. Is it time to move on from the unable to play a full season Mikey, after having him his whole career?

Justin Mason: Crazy to say, but in a 12-team league I probably go Ragans or Lewis. I would struggle with cutting TRout , but you can always draft him again.

Jack: Are you trusting Cease this year?

Justin Mason: Nope!

Ryan: Do you see Nick Frasso sticking as a SP?

Justin Mason: I think he gets the chance to keep starting, but the leash isn’t going to be long.

K: Who wins this trade in a 30 team league. Andres Munoz and Brock Wilken for Jared Jones and Drew Thorpe?

Justin Mason: Munoz side

Mike: Any hesitation with Lodolo this year? He’s being ranked top 40 consistently but last year was brutal. Are you convinced the stats were due to the injury?

Justin Mason: I don’t even know if he is in the rotation or healthy. I love the upside, but I need to see him pitch in spring training first

Justin Mason: Thank you for chatting with me! I got through most of the questions. You can always reach me on twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!