Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 5, 2026

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Insert Witty Name Here: You can’t win a championship in January, but you sure can lose if you don’t start the prep!

Justin Mason: Absolutely! The people that are plugged in right now are the ones that will have a leg up come draft day. The fact that you all are in a fantasy baseball chat in early Jan is a pretty good sign for you in your leagues this year

James: Is Jackson Merrill keeper-worthy?

Justin Mason: Depends on the league size and format, but I would say so. I think he will look more like his 2024 self this season and expect a bounceback

Insert Witty Name Here: What did you learn last year that you’re applying for this year?

Justin Mason: I think for me it’s going to be a real focus on power early. The power you can get late can have such massive flaws that it hurts you in average. I want to build up that average/power base early in drafts this year

Matt W.: Happy New Year Justin,Could Vaugn Grissom turn out to be Ketal Marte light with a line something like 15/ 10 with a .270ish average with full playing time now?

Justin Mason: I absolutely think that is in the range of outcomes. I am throwing out 2024 after the illness that wrecked his season. The Angels are clearly going to give him a shot to play. If the defense is good enough to keep him on the field, I think he could be a sneaky accumulator.

Hazmat Corntail: I’m in a tough spot at the corners with my dynasty team for next year; I had Casas/Barger pencilled in as the starters, with Bohm/Lawlar as potential supports and Jung, Schanuel also still on the roster. I have Long and Clifford among MiLB. I’m picking at #3 in the draft. Is there any hope for the minor leaguers? I may be stuck with probably Omamoto as my only hope to improve, otherwise

Justin Mason: I think there is still hope for Lawlar and the fact the Diamondbacks havent yet brought anyone else in to take his spot is a sign they might believe in him too. If they bring in another bat to take away his spot, then I would worry

Ice Cream Helmet: Petition to add ‘Saves + 1/2 Holds’ to the Auction calculator. That’s what my roto league uses, but I’m not sure how common that category is.

Justin Mason: I can for sure ask. I think it is becoming a more common category and I have a league that uses it.

Phil: Hey Justin, in a 30 team league with $350 budget, how would you rank these closers:
Jeff Hoffman $20
Trevor Megill $19
Emilio Pagan $11
Chris Martin $16

Justin Mason: Megill, Hoffman, Pagan, Martin

Aaron: Final keeper in a 5 cat NL only roto league.  I have Karros at $1 and T Johnston at $1.  Who has more value in CO this season?

Justin Mason: I think Karros is more likely to play every day with Johnston platooning at best.

Justin Mason: Need more questions!

A-A-Ron: Sheehan or Singer in an NL only keeper format roto league that added QS to wins categories so its W+QS as a single cat

Justin Mason: I think in a league that deep, I want to go Singer here. Sheenhan has a really nice ceiling, but he is one of two guys in that rotation that has options and would likely be the first man out of the Dodger sign another starter

Hazmat Corntail: Do you foresee Messick or Boyle landing in and staying in their respective team’s rotations? I’ve done a good job building up my SP pool but it includes guys like them and Henderson who seem shaky in their roles

Justin Mason: I think Messick will for sure. I have already drafted him this year and I love the price he has in the market right now. I am unsure about Boyle. I think the Rays should give him a chance to stick, but the Rays never do what we want them too. I think I would probably lean a guy like Henderson over Boyle if I had to make that decision today

James: How confident are you in Palencia closing all year for the Cubs?

Justin Mason: Not very. I think if the Cubs are competitive they will go with the option that is pitching the best right now and I wouldnt be surprised if they brought in someone before opening day with more of a “proven track record.” I really like Palencia though and I hope the Cubs do just hand him the role. I am just not sold they will

Bruce: Healthy Eury Perez ends the year as a top XX starting pitcher?

Justin Mason: Top 25. I love the skills and another year removed from TJ should cure the consistency issues we saw last year. The hard part is wins is still a category and the Marlins are going to be bad.

King: Happy 2026 Justin! I’m tempted to move on from Dylan Crews this offseason. Borderline keeper. Push me in a direction?

Justin Mason: I feel like the talent is still there for him to emerge. He will be 24 on Opening Day and the struggles can be partially blamed on injury and some bad luck. I need to him start to lift the ball some as a 51% GB rate is not going to get it done, but the raw talent is still there

Party Time: Filling out the back half of your deep league roster, with no pressing needs for the squad, who would you want this year – Brady House or Brandon Pfaadt?

Justin Mason: Pfaadt, but I am biased as a long time believer in him. I just dont see the massive upside in House that I do in Pfaadt if he can figure out another pitch for righties.

Some Guy: In an AL or NL Only league keeper auction league, do you believe there is value in keeping  top bats (say a vladdy type) at above auction calc value for the certainty? If so, how much more is too much?

Justin Mason: You need to figure out your expected inflation rate. I don’t think you should keep guys above your value on them but I am ok keeping them if they are at value and studs if your inflation is high at the auction table.

Blue Man: Best-case for Bryce Eldridge: He starts hot in spring training; struggles of 2025 are quickly forgotten; he finds his footing and his power, limits the Ks.

Justin Mason: I think the Giants will give him a chance to play every day unless he is just terrible in spring. The upside is immense. He has elite power and could be hitting in the middle of a pretty good top half of the lineup. He’s just 21 and will strikeout a bunch, so expect bumps in the road, but I think 30+ home runs is on the table if he is on the Opening Day roster

Bruce: Keeper league (12 tm, keep 5) where he’ll cost ~5th round pick.  Am I crazy for tossing Harper back?

Justin Mason: Depends on your other keepers. He is going at pick 44 in NFBC 50s which is the back of the fourth in a 12 teamer, so if you have better values on your roster, I would consider it.

Dennys: Baseball in January! How fun. Where do you think Tucker ends up signing?

Justin Mason: I hate to say it, but I worry he will go to the Dodgers. I still think Mets should go get him or even my Giants, but the team with the most money often wins these

Broken Bat: there Looks to be maybe half the league trending towards closer by committee. I am curios with a guy like Jansen who signed with Tigers, or maybe even Pressley of a year ago with Cubs (waived no trade) if their negotiations with interested teams include the “ first in line to close” conversation?

Justin Mason: I think Jansen is the guy in Detroit. I know they said it will be an open thing there, but he hates to do anything but close and I can’t imagine he would have signed there without some assurances he is the guy in the ninth

Justin Mason: I do think it will be an open year in a lot of pens which makes me want to pay up for saves where I can.

B. Wayne: Harvey Dent – can we trust him?

Justin Mason: I half trust him.

Justin Mason: point awarded

Doc Estes: If Cody Ponce 폰세 were available for FYPD drafts, where would he be taken?

Justin Mason: I think I might take him in the back half of the first in a 15 teamer if I was competing. These returnees from Korea and Japan often are pretty good in their first season back in MLB but then can struggle after that, so I am only really interested if I am in my win-now window

Dan Norman Lear: What do you think is the likelihood of the Brewers moving Megill and making Uribe the closer?  And staying in the Central, who is going to close for the Cards? O’Brien? Romero feels like he is pure tradebait.

Justin Mason: I think it’s extemely likely the Brewers move Megill and go with Uribe. I would be drafting or grabbing shares of Uribe right now if I could. I am going to say that O’Brien will get first crack at the St. Louis job but that it will likely be shared or change hands multiple times for the Cards

San Matty: How many leagues will you be in this year? More or less than last year? Any that you’re particularly looking forward to?

Justin Mason: I am definitely going to be in fewer leagues this year. Partly due to wanting a lighter workload in season and partly due to finances. I am obviously looking forward to TGFBI, BARF, and Tout! I also will be in Vegas for the NFBC this year and am looking forward to doing one of those auctions

Bobby Dalbec NPB MVP 2026: 18 team dynasty league, 25 keepers. you can draft any signed player in the drafts. I have 9th overall. Looking to contend in 2-3 years. Trying to decide who to shoot for in the 1st round drafting 9th overall with the following options: L. Pena, N. McLean, E. Florentino, E. Quintero, C. Young, D. Beavers, J. Tong, J. Briceno, Bonemer, C. Jensen, T. Yesavage, B. Rainer, T. Imai – not a super competitive league so not all these guys are gonna go, there are more options, but these are my short list of targets.

Justin Mason: For me I want McLean and Yesavage in that group. I have McLean a little higher, but what we saw from them last year has me really excited they could be studs right away.

SG: In a very deep 12-team league (with minor league rosters, etc.) I’m looking at bench guys with speed to rotate in.  I’m locked in on Jose Caballero and could keep any/all of Evan Carter, Dylan Beavers, Jake Mangum, and Victor Scott II.  Probably want to put at least one back into the draft, any thoughts on that crew?

Justin Mason: Mangum and Scott probably have the higher floors of this group but the worst ceilings and in a 12 team league, I want ceiling. The problem with Beavers is I don’t know where he finds full time ABs in Baltimore. He needs a trade and I am hoping he gets moved before the start of the season. Carter has talent, but he’s probably my throw back here because he just cant stay healthy and has struggled with platoon issues when on the field.

Doc Estes: What have you heard on Ketel Marte? Will he stay or will he go?

Justin Mason: I think he gets moved. The Diamondbacks are trying to drive up the price but there is clearly an issue there and there will be too many teams that need a stud second baseman for someone not to give into their demands.

Steve Jeltz: Who starts for the Rockies at 2B this season? Amador or Ritter

Justin Mason: Amador I think

Kevin: I’m in a newly forming league of undetermined size and not yet defined rules. What should my mid-rounds draft strategy be?

Justin Mason: This really depends on the format and size of league

James: Any hope for Jordan Walker?

Justin Mason: He is too young and talented to give up on completely, but there are massive holes in his game so I am not holding my breath.

Chip: Are you seeing any good values in the catcher pool (12 team, 1 catcher)? I’m tempted to target Salvy Perez over the shiny new coins (Goodman, Rice, Langeliers).

Justin Mason: In a 12 team 1 catcher format, I am always waiting until near the end before I take my catcher. There are too many good ones at that point. I would be stoked to end up with Sal or a guy like Adley on a rebound.

Bobby Dalbec NPB MVP 2026: Rookies-only (and previously undrafted) draft in a different dynasty league… 4th overall, I have Anthony, Kurtz, Basallo, Burns as my top four choices. If Basallo doesn’t go #3 (or Burns), which of the two would you take, all else equal? I just took over this team this year and it is a definite rebuild. I feel like Basallo is obvious, right? Or do you think there’s a different rookie you’d want to build around (S. Stewart, Eldridge, probably not. Idk why I’m even asking)?

Justin Mason: Basallo and not close for me. Love Burns but the arm trouble last year has me a bit scared.

Johnny5Alive: Sasaki n the rotation this year? I traded for skenes and have McLean in an NL only and would love to have a third young stud.

Justin Mason: I think he is. The Dodgers are going to at least give him the shot. They will have a quick pull on him if he struggles again though

Colton: First chat of the year, just wanted to pop in and say hi! Looking forward to this year!

Justin Mason: Thanks for coming through!

Paul Dewgong: Do you believe in Agustin Ramirez? I’m weary but 21/16 hitting in the middle of the marlins line up

Justin Mason: I believe in the bat for sure. I don’t think he is a catcher long term, but that is probably more of an issue for 2028 rather than 2027. For 2026, I think he will easily be a top 5-7 catcher and he has the upside to be top 3

Billy Ocean: Better standard league keeper knowing only what we know now: Wheeler or Bradish?

Justin Mason: Bradish

Billy Ocean: Who’s that lady walking through my door? What’s the score?

Justin Mason: Point awarded

Paul Dewgong: Looking for some deep deep sleepers in a 2 team dynasty for RPs… Anyone who could come out of no where with closer/set up stuff?

Justin Mason: Jordan Romano in Anaheim, Connor Prelipp in Minnesota, Mason Montgomery in Pittsburgh, Erik Miller in SF

Johnny5Alive: Do you believe in alvy’s second half gains last year? Can he finally be the c the Mets have been hoping for?

Justin Mason: I believe in the talent, but the health is a skill he needs to show

Justin Mason: I have a few minutes left and no questions!

Billy Ocean: Investing in Wetherholt in redraft leagues or more of a dynasty play?

Justin Mason: I still think he is a dynasty play. I just dont know that they will want to start his clock this year

Sam: Does T. Casas have anything in the tank?

Justin Mason: I think he will need a change of scenary once he is healthy. Just no room in Boston especially if they resign Bregman like I expect

Johnny5Alive: Real life baseball. What should the Mets do about pitching

Justin Mason: Go get Framber! You have the money

Justin Mason: I could also see them just rolling with what they have because with McLean and Tong, they have the depth to see what they are before making a move at the deadline if they want

Bobby Dalbec NPB whatever: 16 team 42 keeper replay dynasty – Kurtz, C. Keith, Trout, or Marte, Rice, J. Wilson. Your team already has Lindor at SS so Wilson is DHing if you choose those three.

Justin Mason: I think I go Kurtz here unless I need the catcher eligible player in Rice. having Wilson as a DH just doesnt move the needle unless you can move an MI.

SG: Similar q to before, re: end of roster guys, but now on pitching side.  Thoughts on JT Ginn, Kyle Harrision, Matthew Liberatore, Cade Povich?  Any of those guys likely to have value in a deep 12 team league?

Justin Mason: I dont think Liberatore or Ginn are very good but they will get innings. Povich is still developing and with them bringing back Eflin he’s heading to AAA. Harrison is really interesting in Boston, but I think he’s going to AAA too

Bobby Dalbec NPB whatever: Thank you again for your responses. Hope your holidays treated you well. I ended up going with the Kurtz side of the deal too 🙂

Justin Mason: Thank you all for chatting with me! I am excited to talk with yall each week. Chat will begin at the top of the hour. Remember to follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!