Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 2nd, 2023

Justin Mason: Will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions in, so ask away!

Justin Mason: In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing 30 team preview podcasts in 30 days on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Kate: Looking at jazz Chisholm, I don’t have any doubts about the power or speed.  How much confidence do you have in him for avg/obp and ability to stay in the field?

Justin Mason: The biggest concern with Jazz is clearly the health at this point. I think the average will usually be determined by the BABIP, but .235-.255 is what I would expect. The question is can he stay on the field long enough for him to have a monster season? I want to believe he can, but right now that is hope more than anything else.

TW: Keibert Ruiz optimism without the shift? cant train that eye

Justin Mason: Let’s first remind ourselves that it isn’t a “ban on the shift” as teams can still shift, just not as drastically. We also have no idea exactly how much this will help/hurt players. I like Ruiz, but his biggest issue is barrel rate. If he can’t lift the ball with power than he won’t be very interesting in fantasy. That being said, I like to bet on this kind of profile because the contact skills are so good.

Guest: We all know there will be more SB in 2023. If everyone is going to steal 4-10 more bases, then the incremental jump is meaningless. Who is going to take the opportunity to run more (personally and via team philosophy) to really crank out those extra steals on top of the natural, rule-change bump?

Justin Mason: I am looking at teams that have run a lot recently. Rangers, Marlins, Guardians, Cubs, Phillies, Royals, and Yankees all had over 100 team stolen bases. Add the Diamondbacks who led MLB in SBs in the second half.

Kate: Eovaldi lost some velo as the year went on last year.  Do you think that comes back this year?  Can we read anything into the contract the rangers gave him?  They’ve done well with these mid-level FA arms recently.

Justin Mason: With the money the Rangers have thrown around, I am not necessarily reading a ton into it yet. I want to see what his velo looks like when pitchers and catchers report.

John: Am I wrong in thinking that the high K SP’s are even more valuable with the new rule changes this year? SB will be up, which will increase RISP. The shift is gone which could hurt groundball pitchers. The only thing the new rules don’t hurt for pitchers are the strikeouts. Am I overthinking this?

Justin Mason: When the rules were announced, I thought the exact same thing. That being said, I think I definitely was overthinking it a bit. Teams will still shift some and pitchers will adjust as well. I think it definitely hurts the ground ball guys, but maybe not as drastically as we first thought.

Bob OdenKirk: So this January is really gonna be dead, huh?

Justin Mason: Yeah, but that’s because we had such a great December. Hopefully this means we won’t have  players unsigned in March

Kate: How do you think the twins handle save chances between Lopez and Duran (at least to start the year)?

Justin Mason: I think it will be frustrating. Lopez probably gets a lot of the share with Duran getting the high leverage role. Don’t be surprised if two or other three names jump into the conversation as well.

Kate: Brandon Lowe’s down year seems to have been pretty clearly caused by the back injury.  How confident are you in a bounce back this year?

Justin Mason: If healthy, I think he is a steal, but I likely won’t be taking the gamble except when he is one of my last picks because he finished the year on the IL and there’s no way to know if he is healthy. If he looks good in Spring Training, I may come back on board.

gunnar henderson: what kind of stat line do i put up in my first full year? do i get SS eligibility in season or stick at 3B?

Justin Mason: I think he gets SS eligibility at some point, but I think it takes a while. That being said, I am really worried about his platoon splits and don’t know that he runs as much as others think. He is an avoid for me.

Guest: Feel okay having LeMahieu in a MI spot at this point? or too much uncertainty?  have him in two places with keeper deadlines of 1/31.  thanks!

Justin Mason: Depends on depth of league, but I love LeMahieu and think he is pretty underrated.

Nick: I’m coming off a championship in a 12 team points league, where we keep 5 and I’m torn in which way to go. The players increase in cost each year and the X indicate where I’m leaning.                                   

• J. Urias SP 7th Round
• W. Smith C 10th Round
• X F Tatis SS 13th Round
• X A. Riley 3B 15th Round
• X J. Rodriguez OF 17th Round
• X K Tucker OF 18th Round
•   R Ray SP 20th Round
• X V. Pasquantino 1B 25th Round
•   N. Lodolo SP 25th Round

Justin Mason: Tatis, Riley, Rodriguez, Tucker, Ray.

Justin Mason: Tempted to do Vinnie P over Ray though

Dynastic query: Hi Justin, think Andres Gimenez is a 20/20 type going forward? I’m thinking about trading for him in a 15-team h2h dynasty league. His underlying numbers have me concerned if he will build on his progress or if he has peaked. Think he’ll get better and he’s worth a slight overpayment? Thanks again Justin and happy new year!

Justin Mason: I don’t think the power gets better and it likely regresses some. I do think he could increase the SBs. The average will come back to earth as he had a really high BABIP. 12-15/25 with a .265 average seems right

Guest: When does Francisco Alvarez make it up to the Mets?

Justin Mason: I think he is up pretty early. I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the team out of spring.

Mrs. Featherbottom: What are your thoughts on Vinnie Pasquantino for 2023?

Justin Mason: I have really come around on Vinnie P. I love guys with ELITE bat to ball skills and he has that in spades. I also think the power could tick up a little. 25-30 homers and a 280-300 average.

Jesse: Keeper question: 12 team (deep, so plays like a 14), one catcher league – Realmuto in the 3rd or Luis Castillo in the 3rd? Other keepers likely to be Dansby, Schwarber, Sandy, FTJ, Webb if it matters.

Justin Mason: Neither are worth a third necessarily, but with inflation, maybe it does. I love Realmuto and while I tend to punt catchers in a 1-catcher league, I think he gives you a advantage at the position.

Guest: Will Brendan Donovan develop respectable power to make him fantasy relevant?

Justin Mason: I do not

GM: Eury Perez or Daniel Espino in dynasty?

Justin Mason: Perez

Jim: What kind of year do you expect for Ryan Lavarnway?

Justin Mason: I think I out hit him lol

TW: better season next year in MIA? Jesus Sanchez or Avisail Garcia

Justin Mason: I am gambling on Sanchez and the adjustments he made in the minors, but Garcia is safer.

Tcat: Who’s this years Cedric Mullins?

Justin Mason: There isn’t one, but guys that are going after pick 300 interesting to me are Garrett Mitchell, Esteury Ruiz, Alek Thomas, Jesus Sanchez

Neil: Due early ADPs reflect RHPs going to see a noticeable disadvantage to LHPs due to LHB heavy line ups AND harder to hold runners than lefties?

Justin Mason: Maybe, but I think it is overblown to be honest.

Guest: hey Justin.  How do you see McCarthy’s value with the Varsho move?

Justin Mason: I think he definitely gets a real opportunity now that Varsho is gone and he had a great second half but there is still a short and long term logjam in the outfield. I wonder if there is another trade coming and I think he could be the guy that gets moved.

Resolute fantasies: Hi Justin pick 3.  All are late round keepers in a 3OF, 1 C roto league: O Cruz, MJ Melendez, J McCarthy, A Vaughn, Lodolo, L Hendricks.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Cruz, Lodolo, Hendricks.

Johnny5Alive: Swanson at $26 in an nl only league? More power in Chicago? Would cost me a $2 Tyrone Taylor

Justin Mason: I would go Swanson

KG: In a 12 team H2H with 12 categories (slg and losses extra categories), have to decided whether to keep Judge, Trea Turner, or Corbin Burnes on one year deals. M Olson, B Lowe, A Riley, K Tucker, R Greene, L Robert, L Garcia (Houston) and Sean Manaea locked in and cannot be changed. First world fantasy problems

Justin Mason: Burnes

James: Who will be the Mariners closer by the all star break

Justin Mason: Munoz leads the committee.

Dan: Thoughts on Varsho drafted in the top 60?

Justin Mason: Makes a lot of sense in a two catcher league.

Chris: If you were the Blue Jays GM, would you have traded Moreno or Jansen?

Justin Mason: Which ever got me the biggest return.

John: Will Detmers break out or regress

Justin Mason: I think he broke already and I think he can keep those gains

TW: India bounce back szn?

Justin Mason: If he can stay healthy. I am a believer.

Guest: Hey Justin! Thanks for the chat! Either Diamondback pitchers Nelson or Jameson worth holding onto as Keepers in Dynasty?

Justin Mason: I think Jameson is pretty interesting and should have a job unless the team adds more starters which could be the case if they trade another outfielder.

Just Me: Which older pitcher has the best 2023: Stripling, Carrasco, Matz, Quintana or Eflin?

Justin Mason: That is tough because I like all of these guys. I lean Carrasco, but I will be drafting all except Quintana.

Treebearded: Spencer Torkelson had an improved 2nd half and a 41.4% Hard Hit rate last year, but Steamer still projects him at .232/.322/.416 on a team with a terrible offense. He’s obviously not as bad as his rookie year, but is he a viable play in a 12-team OBP league, or are we waiting 2-3 more years?

Justin Mason: I have already drafted him this year. The fantasy community buries these prospects that struggle in their initial go around. I’ll buy the dip.

Lil Yan: Do you have a favorite Pokèmon?

Justin Mason: I do not lol

Nick: Thanks for answering, and I agree is the Ray or Pasquantino is the the real debate. Might just have to flip a coin.

Justin Mason: I usually go hitting in keeper/dynasty because the likelihood of pitching injuries.

SS.: Is Lindor a top performer again in 2023?

Justin Mason: Absolutely.

John: Do you think that G Valera will be a regular OF for Clev by the end of 2023 and will he be a productive hitter

Justin Mason: I am a big fan, but the strikeouts are a concern for me. I think he gets a shot at somepoint because the outfield still has issues.

Lil Yan: What are your thoughts on strawberries being in salads? I like strawberries and I like salad but I have my doubts they belong together.

Justin Mason: Very good question. I think there is a place for them in certain salads, but you really need a light and tangy dressing. If you add them in with a blue cheese crumble, it is a nice contrast.

RS: Steamer projects 3B after the first six or so to be pretty bad, and 2B is even worse. You have a player or two at each you think really beat Steamer this year?

Justin Mason: Justin Turner and Josh Jung at 3B, Grissom, Stott, Luis Garcia at 2B.

Guest: First time caller, long-time reader and listener. Justin, I love you. Am I wrong in thinking the shift ban isn’t going to have the intent that many anticipate? I don’t have the numbers to back it up but if I had to guess… I imagine the shift happening in the outfield has likely suppressed much more of the ‘fun’ out of baseball. The infield shift ban will likely inflate BABIP of balls hit on the ground, but that flyball stuff that turns into doubles and triples will remain deflated prior to the money ball era, no?? Curious to hear your thoughts on (1) who benefits from the infield shift the most and (2) if you think MLB will ban the ‘outfield’ shift sooner rather than later once they realize the infield shift ban won’t inject as much run production as they anticipate…

Justin Mason: I appreciate the love! I think we may overthink this a ton this offseason. Teams and pitchers will adjust and teams can still shift, just not as drastically. I think it is hard to pinpoint individual teams and players as we just have no idea. I am focusing on contact skills and teams with good defense already. I hope MLB doesn’t make anymore mid-season changes, but who can trust them after the last few years?

Jim: you are a commanders fan and a San Francisco Giants fan? Seems like you have a few rough years ahead for you. I am from DC, I’ll pick up my commanders fandom back up once Snyder is out of the picture. At least I’m an Orioles fan and not a nationals fan so I have something to look forward to these next few years lol

Justin Mason: I am a commanders and SF Giants fan. Grew up in DC before the Nationals arrived. Looking forward to new ownership in DC. It is going to be a long few seasons as a fan for both teams

old Guy: Corbin Carrol or Jordan Walker, who is better, now or future

Justin Mason: Carroll is better now and long term, but I like Walker a lot.

Brettbland: Gabriel Moreno stats this year and does he start in majors this year.

Justin Mason: I think he starts the year in the Majors, but it is a frustrating time share with Kelly. 10-12 home runs and a .270 average seems about right.

Damian: Do you think franmil is done , or gets another chance? He did hit 37 hr a couple years ago

Justin Mason: I think he gets another chance somewhere, but wouldn’t be surprised if doesn’t. His profile is not what teams covet.

Brettb: Thoughts on bubble Thompson

Justin Mason: If he doesn’t learn to make better contact, he is a AAAA player.

James: Will Josh Lowe or J Kelenic ever become really good major leaguers

Justin Mason: I still believe in Kelenic.

The Wizard of Oz: Will Ozzie Albies bat in the #6 or 7 hole because Michael Harris will be at #2? Or will Albies hit near the top? Big change in value here.

Justin Mason: I think Albies starts in the six hole but moves back up once it is clear he is completely healthy.

James: John Gray or Sonny Gray, who has the better stats in 2023

Justin Mason: John

Guest: Freddy Peralta worth the risk at a bit of a discount this year?

Justin Mason: I think so, but I wish the discount was larger. Still guys going behind him that I prefer.

Marc: Keep S. Perez ($20M) or A. Kirk($1M) in a salaried keeper league?

Justin Mason: Give me the discount on Kirk

Marc: Thoughts on Buxton this year?

Justin Mason: I think we are still haven’t seen a big enough discount personally, but he is definitely cheaper than previously. Love the upside, but the injuries take away so much value. In a shallow league with IL spots, I’ll take the gamble. In deeper leagues, I am staying away.

Just Me: You mentioned Torkelson as a post-hype buy, who are some others?  Is Jake Burger one?

Justin Mason: Burger is one I will take in extremely deep leagues. Riley Greene, Casas, Kelenic, Bart, Gore, Alek Thomas, Royce Lewis, Brujan, Jarren Duran, Larnach, Pearson are others.

RS: You think Castellanos comes back? He’s cheap enough to be a value right now if he can get back to form.

Justin Mason: I think he can, but maybe not to what he was in his peak seasons in Cincy. 25+ homers and a .265 average is what I am thinking.

Treebearded: Which of these SP are going to make a major jump this year? George Kirby, Joe Ryan, Freddy Peralta, Patrick Sandoval, Tarik Skubal, Triston McKenzie, Roansy Contreras, Tony Gonsolin, Christian Javier

Justin Mason: I like almost all those names to be honest outside of Skubal who is a huge injury red flag.

Justin Mason: Thank you all so much for joining the chat! Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing 30 team preview podcasts in 30 days on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!