Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 29th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

RAGBRAI: Do Snell and Montgomery sign before catchers/pitchers report?

Justin Mason: I would assume they do, but there is only about two weeks left so I guess there is a chance they don’t.

RAGBRAI: Brewers seem to need more SPing. What’s the best they can probably do?

Justin Mason: I think a guy like Mike Clevinger or Domingo German would make sense. I don’t think they will pay up for Snell or Montgomery so they need to look for a guy on a cheaper deal that might want a pillow contact.

Mi nombre es: Hi Justin, pick two to keep in 12 team roto: L. Webb 5th, O. Cruz 11th, Casas 20th, Royce 22nd.  None of my other keepers are pitchers.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Give me Casas and Royce at those prices.

RAGBRAI: Better chance of happening-Alfonso traded at deadline or signed to extension?

Justin Mason: I think Pete Alonso gets an extension before he is traded if something is done before he just walks.

Insert Witty Name Here: The eternal debate: Wins, QS, or IP for a standard roto league?

Justin Mason: Personally I like wins. I know it is a bad stat, but there really isn’t a good one. I know some leagues use win+ QS which might not be a bad alternative.

Chip: Just curious, why doesn’t Mark Leiter Jr show up on the RP fantasy rankings at all? Adjacent question – what is your take on him going into ’24?

Justin Mason: I think people discount him a bit because of his age and lack of MLB experience. He was pretty good in spite of some rough stretches last season. I think he could fall into saves if something were to happen to Alzolay, but mostly he is a holds guy.

Old No. 7: Are teams now using AI extensively? How has or will it change the game as we know it?

Justin Mason: I honestly have no idea. I am sure some are and some aren’t

Insert Witty Name Here: Thoughts on not paying for top tier pitchers due to the injury risk? As much as I love Strider as a pitcher and a person, I just think the risk of his injury profile can’t justify his price.

Justin Mason: Every pitcher has risk, but unless they have a recent history or a red flag I see (i.e. velo drop, change in mechanics), I don’t worry about it too much. Strider doesn’t strike me as a guy with many red flags.

Thanos: Nolan Jones ran a .401 BABIP last year, obviously that’s going to come down but ZiPS projects .364 and Steamer says .348. What’s the Justin Mason projection system got?

Justin Mason: Jones is definitely not going to run a .400 BABIP again, but .348 seems a little light, but not too far off. I might be more in the .355-/365 range in Colorado. I think there is some real regression coming for Jones and I am not a buyer at the top 50 ADP that we have seen.

Tom: There’s so much hype around Wyatt Langford.  Why are people so adamant in his profile that he’s a can’t miss prospect?  How does he differ from guys like Torkelson and Kelenic?

Justin Mason: I don’t know that he necessarily is different. He looked great in the minors, but we are still talking about 200 plate appearances between four levels. I don’t know that we have seen enough to know if there are holes in his swing like Kelenic or more development needed like Torkelson. I do think he is a naturally gifted hitter with power and speed which makes him enticing. I will take the gamble here and there, but he will continue to rise in redraft price and if he gets too high, I will pass.

Matt: Which veteran 3B do you prefer out of Arenado and Bregman?

Justin Mason: Arenado, but it is close.

Insert Witty Name Here: Any post hype prospects your bullish on this year?

Justin Mason: I am always looking for guys that were top prospects and are close to or in the Majors that maybe people have forgotten about because of underperformance or injury. Colton Cowser is the first name that popped into my head. I think Curtis Mead kind of fits the bill as well. Andrew Painter should be back this season. Pete Crow Armstrong should be back to the Majors as well.

Martin: I caught some flack about fading Lars Nootbaar at ADP 199. The body of work is just meh. Thoughts?

Justin Mason: I think he just needs an opportunity. The problem is I don’t know if he will platoon or not. There is some power and some speed, but I think he profiles more like a really good accumulator, but if he platoons, that really takes away those chances to accumulate. Everything lines up well if he plays full time, but I am a little tepid on him because the Cardinals are stacked and he may share that role.

RAGBRAI: There are a few elite closers left. Are we seeing the end of them? Is Bullpen by Committee the way most teams will be going?

Justin Mason: I think you will continue to see a mix. Some teams like having that established guy and others want to mix and match. This is why it is important to follow the team philosophy as opposed to just always going by the individual skills.

Colton: Now that Hoskins has signed with the Brewers, where does he fall on your 1b list this year? Top 10?

Justin Mason: I think he is really close especially if he looks healthy in spring. I think he definitely jumps into the top 12 with an argument to be top 8 or 9.

RAGBRAI: Is SF’s offseason done? I thought they had money to spend but doesn’t seem like they’ve stepped up much yet?

Justin Mason: I don’t know. As a Giants fan it is pretty frustrating because I don’t think they have a clue what they are really doing at this point.

Guest: Final keeper conundrum in a keep 10: Royce Lewis, Elly or Langford?  Feels like they all have a upside v downside aspect to them (I also say this as an Elly skeptic)

Justin Mason: Wait, you can keep 10 but have two cut two of these guys? I guess I would cut Lewis and Langford but you have to be able to package guys together. Lewis and Langford are close to being top 50 players in dynasty.

Nick: Who are your late round targets for SBs this year?

Justin Mason: So just for future questions, remember to put in league size so that way I know how late we are talking. Maikel Garcia is going outside the top 200, Jose Siri, Parker Meadows, Will Benson are all going around pick 300, Alex Thomas about 350, Brice Turang, AMed Rosario, Tim Anderson around pick 400, Garrett Mitchell around 450.

Todd: Hi Justin, would you trade away a $17 Tucker(last year to keep) for a $5 Soto in AL only $260 cap?  Other keepers are $22 JRod, $21 L Robert, $33 JRam, $8 Tork

Justin Mason: Yes

ghost of kris bubic: you mentioned velo drop as a precursor to tj surgery.  I’ve noticed a velo spike on the last 3 i owned in fantasy.  any merit to this or sss?

Justin Mason: There is sometimes, but it is really hard to know when that is a sustained spike or something else. I have noticed it too and I do think there are some studies around that but I honestly can’t remember who did them.

Pat G: Hey Justin, thanks for chatting with us today.

I’ve got a question that is hard to phrase without it sounding like a humblebrag, but here we go. In a dynasty league, can you build a team so strong that it essentially ends the league? I have a monster in a 16 team league, from 2019-2023 I finished 2nd, 1st (no season as H2H, but my team did win among those of us that set lineups for fun), 1st, 1st, 1st. My offense is young and stacked, and I just keep buying veteran starters from rebuilding teams for a handful of guys I just drafted.

Should I ‘step down’ and break up the team so someone else can win?

Justin Mason: I don’t think you should have to break up your team unless you honestly believe that the league will end because of it. If this is a free friends league maybe talk about changing it into a keeper format instead of dynasty so there is more turnover? These things do happen especially if there is a discrepancy in how many people are active versus people who are fine just drafting and holding.

JoeG: Who is your favorite MLB team ?

Justin Mason: The Giants!

Fred: How do you feel about R Lewis this season?  Possible stud or just too many injuries for you to deal with?

Justin Mason: I think he could be both to be honest. I love the talent and I think if he stays on the field, he could be a first round value. That being said, I am extremely scared by his health history. He has just never stayed on the field. In shallow formats, I would take the gamble because of the available talent on the wire, but in deeper formats, I stay away.

CanBaseballStartYet: H2H QS league.  Cease clear keeper over pepiot?

Justin Mason: Maybe not as clear as it should be but yes.

diadem: Tovar or Lawler this year?

Justin Mason: Tovar because I know he has a job from the jump

Nick: Is $8 too much to keep Jackson Holliday or do risk throwing him to try and get him cheaper in a 12 team points league? I can keep him the next year at $12 if I keep him this year.

Justin Mason: If you don’t want to risk it, I am fine keeping him at that price.

Mike: Bobby Miller or CJ Abrams in 12 team H2H OBP league?  Sure, CJ is a drag on OBP but if he can grow a bit from last year, that power/speed.  Have Riley, Carroll, Cole as keepers and Alvarez/Grayson as “minor leaguers” – don’t ask.  Leaning CJ for another hitter but Bobby, man.

Justin Mason: Miller

Justin Mason: The OBP will never be good for Abrams and the Nationals are awful around him.

Justin Mason: Love him in standard leagues though

Stu: Sal frelick a regular starter in brewers OF?

Justin Mason: I think he gets a shot to be, but they have options to platoon him or take his spot if he doesn’t hit.

Tom: Need to keep 2 of these 3 in AL only…$5 Skubal, $6 Eflin, $17 Framber?   Thanks!

Justin Mason: Skubal and Eflin

BATX: Curious where the BAT and BATX are on Fangraphs

Justin Mason: I believe I saw Derek say that they should be up this week!

Farhandrew Zaidman: Dodgers leader in IP in 2023 was Kersh with 131 (and that was on a 5 man rotation). All indications are this year, it’ll be a six man rotation. Shouldn’t we expect no dodger pitcher to top 150 IP this year?

Justin Mason: Someone will but your guess is as good as mine as to who and if there are more than one.

Scorpion: Chisholm for Vinnie P and Ragans?   15 team roto/28 man roster/dynasty

Justin Mason: Give me the Royals.

Dynasty Decisions: Hi Justin, I need to cut one hitter and one pitcher in a h2h dynasty league. Can you help? Morel, McMahon or Kirilloff? J. Gray, Wacha or Ashby? Who would you drop? Thank you, Justin.

Justin Mason: Which Gray? If it is Josiah, I will drop ashby. If it is Jon, I will drop him. I will also drop Kirilloff.

RAGBRAI: I have a $40 Olson and a $43 Alonso in an NL only 5×5. With high prices on premium players would it be wrong to keep both? Assuming I can’t trade one.

Justin Mason: I don’t think I want two $40 first basemen if my cap is $260.

Farhandrew Zaidman: If the Dodgers acquire Jansen like it’s reported they are interested in doing, how does their saves situation shake out? Assume it’s Jansen over Phillips, or take a wait and see approach?

Justin Mason: They wouldn’t be getting him to put him as a set up guy. He would be the closer until he fails.

Ruby: All $ equal… who’s a better keeper? Casas or one of the Jacksons?

Justin Mason: Holliday

Todd: Got offered Jazz and Eury Perez and a 1st (10th overall) for Vlad in keep-7 forever points league. My core is younger (JWalker, Chourio, Casas, Devers). I’m tempted- would you do it?

Justin Mason: That is really tempting and I think I might. Especially with Casas on my roster, but in a keep only 7, I think you want the elite player who is Vlad.

Farhandrew Zaidman: For the record, I fully support teaching your child “revenge is a dish best served cold,” and would even extend that lesson to “fairness is a human concept that doesn’t exist in nature.”

Justin Mason: THANK YOU!!!

Justin Mason: Also, I was totally joking

Super Smart Dude: What order would you draft these players in a 12 team 5×5 keeper league: C.J. Abrams, Langford, Skenes, Yamamoto, Crews

Justin Mason: Abrams, Langford, Yamamoto, Crews, Skenes

Blake: Hi Justin, thanks for the chat! NL-only, finalizing my cut-off keepers. Keep 2 of: MacKenzie Gore, Sal Frelick, Michael Busch, Jonathan India, Jose Quintana.

Justin Mason: Frelick and Busch

Houzer: Okay … hear me out- who says no : Tigers trade Jace Jung to the Red Sox for Trevor Story and Marcello Mayer. Once Mayer is ready to come up, Tigers roll with Tork, Keith, Mayer, and Story/Baez at 3B. Loser of the 3B sweepstakes becomes a very expensive Util player until their contract is up

Justin Mason: No way the Tigers do this lol

Humblebraag: I am a stud, but I can’t spell

Justin Mason: Me too

Dodgers Blue: With the Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 signing in SF, what is your take on Luis Matos‘ long-term outlook?  His bat wouldn’t seem to profile in a corner outfield position as well as it did in CF.  Does he have a future in SF, or more likely the headliner of a trade to come?

Justin Mason: I think this is another example of the Giants really not knowing who they are. Matos is an interesting player and they need to see what they have in him and I don’t think he has a ton of trade value. I think he probably toils in AAA or is a fourth outfielder for when one of their injury prone guys gets hurt.

Colton: Keith starts the year at 2b for the Tigers now that he’s signed this contract, yeah? Also, him and Jung flipping positions is odd to me.

Justin Mason: I don’t think Keith can play up the middle. I don’t know how long he can even play third. I think he starts at 3B this year and at some point is a DH/1B

Frank: There’s gotta be a *slim* chance Ohtani has an even higher gear as a hitter if he takes a whole year off from pitching, right?

Justin Mason: Sure! Won’t need a ton of days off  just DHing.

Allen: Looking to trade away Jose Ramirez in a 12 team roto for a young possible ace SP…been offered G Rodriguez or B Miller(LAD)  QS league…which one should i take?

Justin Mason: Grayson Rodriguez

Opilio: Roto Roster shows Shane Baz opening the year in AAA.  Is he likely to see a starting role by mid-season with the Rays?

Justin Mason: I think he will once he is built up.

JoeG: Evan Carter or Jordan Walker ? 12 Team roto

Justin Mason: Walker

Dodgers Blue: How are you going into drafts ranking guys like Jordan Hicks, Garrett Crochet, Mason Miller and Keaton Winn – types that could see time both as starters and relievers?  Of the four, any one stand out above the others for you?

Justin Mason: I think Winn is my favorite because we have seen him throw innings regularly. There is a ton of upside on Miller and Hicks, but I just don’t trust that they can throw 5-6 innings 30 times in a season.

Colton: Ever thought about posting your exact projections each year somewhere the way Dan and Derek do?

Justin Mason: I am not as good as them lol

Justin Mason: That being said, I make them available for our patreon people

Rodney: Dynasty keeper. Carlos Rodon or Andrew Abbott? Who do you go with for the next five years?

Justin Mason: Rodon

JoeG: Andrew Abbott or B.Pfaadt as a late sleeper ? Or both ? 12T Roto

Justin Mason: Pfaadt

RAGBRAI: Despite your possible bias would you put SD ahead of SF in the West and both behind LA and AZ?

Justin Mason: I have SF fourth in the division right now behind everyone but Colorado.

Dodgers Blue: Can you speculate on which teams might be looking at the second-tier pitching options that remain out there:  Clevinger, Lorenzen type guys?

Justin Mason: Baltimore, Yankees, Brewers, Mets, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Washington

Dodgers Blue: Are you buying/selling Henry Davis as the future long-term catching option in Pittsburgh?

Justin Mason: I think I am buying

TBD: Is Paxton now worth $1, and how does Paxton shake up the Dodgers’ starting rotation?

Justin Mason: I think he just gives them the depth they need to run the six man rotation and cover injuries that happen. It was a smart move by them.

Guest: Hi Justin, first time long time. In a h2h standard scoring league, who would you keep as your 5th: Story, Bogaerts, Glasnow, Webb, or Skubal? Other 4 keepers are Carroll, Lubob, Vlad, and Mullins if that helps

Justin Mason: Skubal

Justin Mason: I would probably keep Glasnow over Mullins too as much as that pains me.

Josh: Last keeper….Tork or J Jung?

Justin Mason: Jung

Dave: Does Davis Schneider have more value as a cheap keeper in a 20-team league or as a trade chip if the other owner can look past his miserable September?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he does.

Ryan: 1st base is so thin.  Who are some mid to late players to target

Justin Mason: Abreu and Rizzo have been my favorite late targets.

RGM: If Jose Caballero starts as the rays SS, am I crazy to think his defense and speed keep him in the lineup everyday (somewhere) if he can maintain up 90+ wRC? Seems like a nico hoerner type production if he gets the abs

Justin Mason: I think that is a really nice comp. The average won’t be as good but he is a nice cheap source of speed late.

Rollie’s Mustache: Need to keep 1 in a points league. Bryce Miller, Bobby Miller, or Mitch Keller. (Keep forever, no cost)

Justin Mason: Bobby Miller

Ryan: 4 player keeper league.  12 teams head to head.  I just traded eury and harper for j-rod.  I wasn’t keeping eury with current roster.  Tell me I’m not dumb

Justin Mason: When you are only keeping four, I understand that depending on your other keepers.

norm: Colt Keith had a shoulder injury and there are rumors that his arm doesn’t play at 3B any more. Tigers were playing him more at 2B at the end of last year.

Justin Mason: I hadn’t heard that. That is really good to know. That is tough because he is too big for second.

John: How much would you buy yamamoto for

Justin Mason: I have to have more info about your league, but I am not as high on him this year as others because I need to see him pitch against MLB talent regularly. I think he has top 15 pitcher upside but I also think there is a downside initially that the ADP doesn’t suggest.

Colton: I have a Henry Davis take; he’s this generations version of Willson Contreras.

Justin Mason: I think Pittsburgh would be fine with that.

JoeG: As a Giant fan, thoughts on Kyle Harrison? Worth a bench spot in a 12 T Roto snake draft ?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he has enough control of command to be 12 viable outside of streaming.

Smiling Politely: What do you see from Buehler this year?

Justin Mason: I never bet on guys coming back from TJ. I would assume the Dodgers are very careful with him and that he could struggle with his control.

Garrett v Sanchez: Who ya got. B Garrett v C Sanchez. I lean Sanchez because of the team

Justin Mason: Garrett for me.

Turang v Rosario: Mentioned on the pod. Am I crazy for thinking Turang can easily steal 30-40 bases this season with consistent playtime and hopefully a 240ish average. His ceiling seems like a 2022 Berti season

Justin Mason: As long as he keeps that playing time I think he could do 30

Farhandrew Zaidman: I have to admit I wasn’t familiar with Keith until the contract news came down, saw a photo of him and said to myself “there’s no way a guy with this body shape can play 2B…right?” Glad my off the cuff assessment wasn’t way off.

Justin Mason: Yeah, if he can’t play third because of injury, I am actually really worried about him.

Dodgers Blue: Not arguing the case at all – I’m sure you love them both almost equally like I do – but curious why you like Grayson just a bit more than Bobby Miller.

Justin Mason: I think they are both fantastic, but the park for me helps Grayson so much. It is really close though

Ed: In 5×5 12 teamer, which of these catchers would you keep: $4 O’Hoppe, $4 Heim, or the (relative) safety of $17 Adley

Justin Mason: Heim

Jesus Sanchez: How do you see the Marlins outfield shake out? I have been buying many late round stocks into a Jesus Sanchez breakout as it seems an overpaid Avi Garcia is the only guy standing in his way from getting everyday ABs against righties

Justin Mason: Money talks and I think Avi plays because of that. Sanchez needs a new team tbh

Graph Phanatic: Thoughts on evaluating high-volume catchers in points leagues? With a very tight bench, someone like Adley or William Contreras is clearly more valuable than the surface-level points #s, but how much of a premium is appropriate?

Justin Mason: I recommend running your favorite projection through the auction calculator to answer that question. Points leagues are all so different. Let the math be your guide.

Maris9: Been reading some nice things about Estuary Ruiz; More power, more playing time, perhaps over 70 steals. What do you think?

Justin Mason: Where is this “more power”? If he could be more of a gap hitter,, I think he could be really interesting but the problem is I worry the bat just gets knocked out of his hands too much. He made more contact in the zone last season which is good, but he doesn’t walk much and he just doesn’t hit with authority when he makes contact.

Ryan: Kimbrel is easily top 5 rp?  Assuming health.

Justin Mason: No

S Murphy v Wls Contreras: You buying the early 2023 hype on Murphy or the late surge from  Contreras? Both around the same expectations?

Justin Mason: I like both but lean contreras

Justin Mason: I have to wrap up and go record with Paul. Thank you all for chatting with me.