Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 22nd, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Good morning everyone!

Justin Mason: Or afternoon!

Matt: I’m having a lot of trouble on my drop decision with Lux. $9 in Ottoneu. I feel like he could have a great season with his potential, but there is obviously so much risk. What are your thoughts?

Justin Mason: I am a big fan of lux, so at that price I would probably keep him because he is surely going to go for more than that in the auction.

Keith: 30 team league. Who wins this deal: Tatis for McLain and Gavin Williams?

Justin Mason: For me it is Tatis because it is so hard to acquire premier talent in leagues that side. I know depth is important but give me the stud.

Luke: Do you think Sal Frelick or Cedanne Rafaela end up being top 100 dynasty players?

Justin Mason: Probably not.

My Name: I know this is a big and sort of vague question, but what (if any) league-wide macro trends are you keeping an eye on in early ’24? For instance, I know a lot of people were paying attention to whether guys were stealing more with the bigger bases last year. Any large-scale shifts like that currently on your radar?

Justin Mason: I don’t think that we have massive ones like last year. The big thing I am thinking about is the pitch clock. Guys who struggled with it last year may struggle more and if the uptick in pitching injuries was correlated to the pitch clock then I want to be very careful with injury risk pitchers this year.

Luke: Do you prefer Brayan Bello or Gavin Williams long term?

Justin Mason: That is really close, but I think it is Bello for me.

Qane: Thank you for doing these! Must-reads always. Keeper auction 6×6 roto that adds IP for pitchers, and BB-K for hitters. I can keep 6. Inflation for top available talent at auction is pretty massive. Focus is 2024 but consideration for +$3 for 2025 for young guys also in the mix. Final two spots, who do you like: Steer $8, Montgomery $10, Bello, $8, Tork $7. Thanks

Justin Mason: Tork and Steer

Ryan: Do you see Jared Jones having a big impact this year or is he more of a long term play?

Justin Mason: I think he is more of a long term play. The Pirates are not overly aggressive with their young pitchers traditionally and Jones isn’t on the 40-man yet.

Vince: Justin thanks for your service! Now, that you are a champion, could you give me your wisdom on Albies vs Semien and Eflin vs Webb in a very high fantasy I.Q., 12-tm, H2H categories league. Thanks!

Justin Mason: So, Albies vs Semien is a question of upside versus floor. Albies could have a massive ceiling but he has had injury issues and isn’t quite as bankable as Semien who is a modern day iron man at 2B. I prefer the stability of Semien especially early in the draft, but I don’t think you can go wrong with either.

Justin Mason: Eflin vs Webb is a similar conversation. If Eflin stays healthy, I think he can be a top 15 pitcher in 2024, but health had been an issue for him prior to TB. Webb is a bankable asset but not as flashy and he plays on a team that won’t get him a lot of wins. I lean Eflin here because of his upside

Charlie Morton Stanbase: What do you think is the best way to handle incoming crossover players in an NL/AL only salary cap dynasty league (from a league rules & admin standpoint)?

Justin Mason: That is a really interesting question but I think you should probably handle them like you would any other free agent. Set up a bidding process that is fair across the board.

Ruby: Who’s a better Jackson to hold in my keeper league? I have both on the roster and I don’t think I can hold both.

Justin Mason: Holliday

dave: Can Keaton Winn be a solid contributor for NL only leagues?  He had a solid K rate throughout the minor leagues and seems locked into the backend of the rotation.

Justin Mason: The stuff is really intriguing and I know he is going to be a popular sleeper for deeper formats. That being said, I do worry about the Giants organization and how they handle pitchers. Maybe a new manager changes that but it also may be more of organizational philosophy.

tumtum: Andres Munoz’s FB is too hittable for a closer, right? Should I sell high before he fails in the role, or hold tight?

Justin Mason: I think you hold tight.

tumtum: How long do you think Seth Brown and JJ Belday lose their spots in the OF and Butler moves up?

Justin Mason: I don;t think Brown loses his role but I think that Bleday could be part of a very frustrating rotation that includes Butler all season long.

RAGBRAI: Has anyone in the NLC done enough to separate themselves from the pack so far? Who is the current favorite?

Justin Mason: I think it is a pretty close race with all five teams that should be very fun to watch. If I had to bet on one it is the Cardinals, but I could honestly see any team winning it.

My Shoulder Hurts: Hi Justin! I can’t believe I’m asking this, but in a keep forever league, do I want to keep Kershaw or Jon Gray? Thanks for your advice!

Justin Mason: This is a way tougher question than I would ever have expected it to be, but it is Kershaw.

Bo: Do you think G. Stone will bounce back this year?  Was there any certain reason for his struggles last year?

Justin Mason: The stuff is good if he can learn to control it. I think he will turn out fine. Probably not a stud, but a back end of the rotation if he can get things under control

dave: Any chances this is the year we see Brendan Rodgers eclipse 20+ hr’s?  His barrel percentage has been trending up for the last 3 years.  He also had a strong finish to last year once the shoulder seemed healthy.

Justin Mason: I have never been a believer and I don’t know that there is a reason to start buying in now outside of the price being very affordable. Full time role in Colorado is nice, but he has been drafted off of prospect pedigree for years and we need to just accept that he isn’t ever going to be a stud.

Guest: Cole Ragans or Tanner Bibbe, mixed 12 6×6 w/holds. Both would be 16th rounder. Other keepers are Bryce Harper (6), Eury Perez (6), Zac Gallen (8). Can only keep 4.

Justin Mason: Bibee for me but this is really close.

AL Central Casting: Are Bailey Ober, Tanner Bibee, and/or Michael King worth keeping at $10 in a 12-team mixed H2H ($260 budget)? I already have three solid starters (Castillo at $28, Glasnow at $14, and Skubal at $10) and a bunch of high-priced hitters, but can’t tell if those three are good enough values to go with. I might not even have the budget for all of them!

Justin Mason: Bibee for sure. King I think so. Ober is probably a no at that price in a 12

RAGBRAI: Do Snell or Montgomery sign before the end of January? Best guess as to where?

Justin Mason: I think they both sign in early Feb. Montgomery back to Texas. Snell to the Yankees

Charles: Who are you more of a believer in for 2024: Woo or King? Does it change long term?

Justin Mason: King for 2024. Woo long term

KCC26: oh gosh please ignore my being an idiot and prematurely submitting twice:   In a 12 team 6×6 keeper (OPS and k:bb ratio added in), which two would you keep from these options: 1st round Seager, 20th round Baz, 20th round CES, 21st round Chourio, 23rd round Caminero.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Chourio and Caminero

RAGBRAI: Does Votto play in ‘24? If so are the Brewers a good fit?

Justin Mason: I think he does play in 2024. Brewers probably aren’t the fit but maybe he goes to Toronto and takes the Brandon Belt role?

tumtum: Do you think Langeliers’ hit tool can give him a .235 BA this season (but not as an outlier)?

Justin Mason: I think it can. Paul and I just talked about him on today’s pod and we both think he is a really nice value at his ADP if you want to wait on catcher.

jesse: 10 team AL only, standard 5×5 categories with 25% inflation: Keep Seagar at $42?

Justin Mason: Yeah, that seems right.

Rickey: Feels like Soto is going to be a monster in Ny, in his walk year no less. Would you take him over Tatis or Judge in the first round?

Justin Mason: Over Judge for sure. Close with Tatis, but I think I might.

Dirty Mike and the Boys: Does Jack Flaherty get back on track this year? Haven’t been the same since injuries.

Justin Mason: Hard to believe he will given what we have seen, but he is cheap enough to take the gamble on this season.

Reginald: Last SP pick: Aaron Ashby or Jon Gray?

Justin Mason: Ashby

tumtum: OF J.Duran has sneaky power. Do you think he breaks out like J. Lowe did ’23?

Justin Mason: Probably not quite to Lowe’s levels, but yes I am a big fan this year.

Danny: Got any tips for a league switching from K, SV, HLD, ERA, QS, WHIP to IP, K/9, SV+HLD, ERA, WHIP, QS? 16 tm H2H. Wondering if you think this massively changes certain types players value.

Justin Mason: Ok, so it will change things, but my advice is to run your favorite projection system through a calculator to see what changes the most. It may not be as massive as you think but it definitely will change who is valuable in the reliever pool.

Luke: One more… Do you prefer Royce Lewis or Matt McLain?

Justin Mason: McLain but I love Royce’s upside.

RAGBRAI: What happens to SBs this season? Another increase, teams adapt and slow them down or about the same? SB leaders in each league?

Justin Mason: I would guess it is similar to last season, but with some teams ramping up and others slowing down.

Doug: nootbar price seems way low for what could easily be a 25-15 with above avg runs and possible ba help.  What am I missing?

Justin Mason: I don’t think you are missing anything. Obviously health and lineup spot plays a role, but I really love his price so far.

Phil: 12 team ottoneu points league. Trade offer on the table of $7 Jorge soler for $8 Michael king and $12 Christopher Morel. Which side comes out ahead?

Justin Mason: I am not a Morel guy but I think this is a pretty easy win for that side. King for Soler feels fair

Keith: Do you think Matt McLain continues this level of performance? Am I right to be skeptical of the BA and power?

Justin Mason: I think McLain is a dynamite accumulator. If healthy, he could be Marcus Semien like. The question becomes health and whether the logjam in Cincy affects him.

Tom: How would you rank…Bryce Miller, Bobby Miller, B. Woo, G. Williams and T. Bibee?  We use W, SV, Ks, ERA, WHIP

Justin Mason: Bobby Miller, Bibee, Bryce Miller, Willams, Woo.

Owen: Is Ben Brown a starter or reliever for you? Could he be up quick?

Justin Mason: I think he is a starter and should be up at some point early in the season.

Big Joey: Who would you rather Keep for the next 3 seasons? Luis Castillo or Pablo Lopez? Categories are W, L, ERA, WHIP, K, QS

Justin Mason: Castillo.

Tim: I am in 1B purgatory in a deep league… Any sleepers on your radar?

Justin Mason: Wade, Bauers, Votto, Schanuel, Tellez and reaaaaal deep Jon Singleton

Anselm: Hi — I’m in a 5×5 obp roto 12-teamer — we can keep 3 players — with a $260 auction budget — I have Seager (29) and Cole (39) as possibles — but can also choose from Mike King, Isaac Paredes, Evan Carter, TJ Friedl, and/or Kyle Bradish at three bucks apiece. What do you think? Thanks!

Justin Mason: I definitely want a $3 Bradish. If I am willing to drop one of the studs, I would take a $3 Carter as well.

Jesse: Got a very specific one for me: would you either lock Tork in at a 17 for 3 years, then keep Oneil as a 12, then 10 (potentially), then 8 or reverse it and lock Oneil in as a 12 with the two round penalties for Tork. If “locked in,” they must be kept each year. The guy who isn’t locked in can be thrown back in the pool next year if I want. Does Schwarber for one more year as a 5 beat out either of those guys (OBP league)?

Justin Mason: So, I am not a fan of locking in a guy long term in those type of keeper leagues unless I am keeping a really cheap stud because I am always trying to extract as much value as possible. So, I would go for Schwarber.

Big Joey: Do you think Juan Soto will ever put up a full season of what he did in 2020?

Justin Mason: Yes, I think it happens at some point.

BTinVT: Better pitcher Wheeler or Snell?

Justin Mason: Wheeler

Sid Bream Sliding: At the risk of spiking your BP, I will ask: Are you in or out on Glasnow this year? What’s your auction pricepoint?

Justin Mason: I am out, The price is going to be insane now that he is on the Dodgers.

Tim: True or False: If Hunter Brown and Hunter Greene cut down their HR rates they are top 20 SPs?

Justin Mason: Greene could be but that is a huge if for Greene.

Randy Choate: Thoughts on Noelvi Marte first overall?

Justin Mason: Wait, what?!

Big Joey: What’s more likely? Yordan 60 HR or Judge 70 HR?

Justin Mason: Yordan

Jake: Zech Neto looked awesome before his injuries.  Who has the better long term upside Neto or McClain?

Justin Mason: McLain, but I like Neto a lot at his price.

RAGBRAI: I have B Reynolds at $25 in a NL only. Is that too much with the drop in SBs?

Justin Mason: I think that is close to being right. Might throw him back and be willing to just pay close to that in the auction.

Fred: Hey Justin, i play in a 8 team AL only $260 cap.  We keep 6 players for 3 years max.  My keepers as of now are $20 JRod, $15Tucker, $20 L Robert, $10 Tork, $20 Altuve, $6 Skubal.  I’ve been offered a trade to aquire $21 B Witt.  If i did the trade my keepers would turn into $20 JRod, $17 Tucker, $21 Witt, $21 Torres, $7 Eflin, $6 Skubal.  Thoughts?

Justin Mason: I would do that for sure.

Michael: Off-position here, but how do you feel about Jake Burger vs Nolan Gorman over the next few years? 12-tm H2H-cats dynasty fwiw.

Justin Mason: I think they are very similar players with similar floors. Give me the guy that plays in the Cardinals offense over the one that plays in the Marlins one.

Quadrangular: Hey Justin. Which pitcher keepers do you like for 2024: Glasnow $9, Bobby Miller $5, Eury Perez $5, Eflin $5, Bibee $5, Ragans $5

Justin Mason: I like all of them at those prices

Bucky: Would you keep Michael Harris II for one year @ $8 or Ragans for $4 and an option for $8 in 2025? I’m already keeping Carroll and Seager, Bobby Miller and Strider

Justin Mason: Harris

D: Hi Justin! Points leagues – do any of the following currently-going-late pitchers have a chance to pop up into the top 40 this year? Yusei Kikuchi, Taj Bradley, JP Sears, Jon Gray, Kutter Crawford, Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn. Thanks!

Justin Mason: I guess Bradley and Harrison might but I wouldn’t bet on anyone on that list tbh

tumtum: Oscar Colas. Do you think he can break out if given at least 300 PA?

Justin Mason: He really needs to improve against left handed pitching if he wants to stay in the Majors. On the plus side, he crushes the ball and I think he will get the opportunity to play unless he looks awful in spring.

Todd: If you needed pitching help in a league would you trade Tatis to get Soto/Wheeler or Soto/L Webb?

Justin Mason: Soto/Wheeler I would

TJ: Is TB going to run out R. Pinto everyday at catcher?  If so, does he have any fantasy value?

Justin Mason: Looks like they might. I don’t see a ton of value here outside of the deepest of leagues.

MayorMcCheese: Skubal=plenty of risk or Skubal=plenty of reward   ??

Justin Mason: Both. I have taken the gamble  few times already

Mariners: Are you concerned about Woo and Miller given Seattle’s crowded rotation?

Justin Mason: I am more worried about Woo because of his arm issues in the middle of the season last year. I think both can stick in the rotation if healthy.

tumtum: Chase Silseth had a great stretch last season, really dominating with his splitter. Without the 6 man rotation, do you believe he is being undrafted?

Justin Mason: Jason and I talked about him on Sunday’s pod if you want a more in depth discussion. Jason is more interested than me. I see underwhelming stuff and with poor command and control.

Guest: Your best guesses (we probably won’t hold you to it) on where Snell and Bellinger sign? As a $16 Snell owner I am growing impatient, need answers!  Thanks for doing these, love the pod

Justin Mason: Snell to the Yankees. Bellinger back to the Cubs.

Todd: Hey Justin, im hurting for SP in a league where we keep 3 hitters and 3 SP.  I could trade away JRamirez to get a nice arm and replace JRam with Holliday….too early to think that highly of Holliday?   My other hitters are Tatis, JRod….pitching options are Eury, Ragans, Buehler, J Ryan

Justin Mason: I don’t think it is too early to gamble on Holliday. I think he could break camp with the team or at least be up very early.

Bert: Justin! Won my 15tm mixed salary cap league last season. Sold off my best keepers to get it done. If you had to choose one, would you keep Jose Ramirez ($42) or Seiya Suzuki ($21)? Inflation hits most of the top guys pretty hard. Leaning Suzuki but curious what you think.

Justin Mason: I lean J-Ram because he is a stud.

Phil: Hey Justin, do you think Edouard Julien is worth a top 20 round keeper in a 12 team OPS roto league? Realistically I can only keep 2 of these 4 for my 2B/SS spot: Julien, Edman, Stott, Correa

Justin Mason: I would keep Stott and Edman here, but I like Julien more than most so I could see keeping him over Edman.

Eric: Is Andrew Vaughn pretty much who he is at this point or does the batted ball data point to another potential level?

Justin Mason: I think he is who he is for now. Obviously, growth isn’t linear, but nothing in the profile points to a break out for me yet.

Adenolith: Not a question, just mourning the death of my 19-year keeper league. Lost too many people, too few of us know each other now, and I don’t have the time and energy to run it that I did when I was 18.

Justin Mason: That’s a bummer.

Samwell: What is Willson Contreras trade value in dynasty leagues, if any? Catcher seems too deep in 12 teams for people to offer much

Justin Mason: Yeah, in a 12-team one catcher league there are too many guys to get much for a guy like Contreras, but I do think he is perpetually undervalued

Michael: Thoughts on a landing spot for CJ Cron next year?

Justin Mason: KBO

Glen: Pick one for last keeper: Cristopher Sanchez or Ceddanne Rafaela (pls and thx)

Justin Mason: Sanchez

tumtum: Civale struggled to keep runners from scoring with Rays but his K/9 spiked. What do you see him becoming with the Rays?

Justin Mason: I think he is kind of who he is at this point which has value in deeper formats

diadem: Can agents disclose the terms offered by other teams like an auction?

Justin Mason: I don’t see why not.

Adenolith: I hear a lot about going into drafts with dollar values already calculated but I’m worried I’d get hamstringed if I stuck to them very close at all. Most everybody bids really hard on the top players and there’s a guy in the league who waits until the mid/bottom – any competition there when the options get limited probably screws us both. I mostly do tiers and then bid on the guy going for the least in the tiers I intend to target. Sound strategy there, or any tips?

Justin Mason: I prefer to have set values heading in. I have an article going up on fantasy pros here in the next day or two that is a full auction primer. Obviously you should adjust to what your league tends to do, but the way to win auctions is to extract as much value as possible and that is often in the mid rounds in aggressive rooms.

tumtum: gold?

Justin Mason: GOLD

tumtum: Jeremy Pena busted last summer. Was this growing pains as a full time SS or a symptom of his limitations?

Justin Mason: I think it is a product of the profile. People always think that just because a guy is young there’s always another level. I think the rookie season is a good indication of where the ceiling lies. I would probably project him to be in the middle of 2022 and 2023

Justin Mason: Ok, speed round since I have a ton of questions and not much time.

Guest: Thoughts on Nolan Jones

Justin Mason: Overrated right now.

tumtum: Pasqauntino’s shoulder surgery return could either bust or sleep. What do you expect he produces and are you in on him this year?

Justin Mason: I am huge on Vinnie P this year. I think he could have a massive breakout.

Albies There for You: Any tips for nominating players in a slow auction? Do you try to sneak in players before the market sets, nominate a bunch of players at the position you’re targeting, etc.. In our setup, each team can nominate 8 at a time for a total of 64 concurrently.

Justin Mason: Please go read my primer coming out in the next day or two.

spec saves: Kyle Finnegan or Hunter Harvey for 2024?

Justin Mason: Harvey

Reginald: Hi Justin, you say you’re not a Morel guy. For the last spot in a dynasty league, I need to axe one of Morel, Kirilloff or Jon Gray. Who would you cut?

Justin Mason: Gray

Cpqb: What do you think of Teoscar Hernandez in LA…what is your OF ranking in his new home?

Justin Mason: I don’t think the change affects much. Kind of the same guy he has always been

tumtum: A few months ago, news came out about the woman in the Bauer case that made it seem like this was a huge overreaction. Do you think a team will give him a shot, or will they die hard?

Justin Mason: No

Cpqb: Eflin or Merrill Kelly 켈리

Justin Mason: Eflin

RF: In the absence of a 4/5 category player option, do you lean towards the speed average guy or the power guy?

Justin Mason: Speed average

Pete: Pick 2 keepers of Ryan Pepiot, Braxton Garrett, Adbert Alzolay. Thx!!

Justin Mason: Garrett and Alzolay

Chip: What are the Rays going to do with Curtis Mead this year? Is he going to play more than 100 games?

Justin Mason: I think he plays just under 100

Bill: Who is your favoroite pitcher from this years FYPD?

Justin Mason: Skenes

mario: everyone seems really down on Brandon Lowe, but I’m still enamored with what he showed in 2021… is the crowd too low, or should I find a better 2B option?

Justin Mason: There’s a ton of risk because of platoon issues and health

Sam: Yainer Diaz or Willson Contreras?

Justin Mason: Diaz

Todd: Deep AL only 6×6 using IP and OBP, SLG instead if AVG. Keeping Julio, Gunnar, Adley. Who are my last two out of R Lewis, JLowe, Y Diaz, Bradish, Paredes

Justin Mason: Lewis, Lowe

Guest: Standard 12-team 10-player keep forever league.
Keeping Witt, Alsonso, Semien, Holliday, Skubal and Bobby Miller.
Pick 4 of the following:Realmuto, Mullins, Langford, Caminero, Chapman; Eflin, Buehler, Ragans, Greene, Baz,  Holmes.
Would have chosen Wander and Presley, but seems HARD to select either of those guys now.

Justin Mason: Caminero, Langford, Eflin, Ragans.

Justin Mason: That was tough.

Guest: Wander isn’t playing baseball again for the next few years right?

Justin Mason: Never again in MLB

VSAWYER96: $260 budget 5×5 auction How high would you go on Acuna

Justin Mason: $50

Guest: 12-team 10-player Keeper league: Looking to keep 3 SP, trade others for OF and 1 RP help. Thoughts on the following:
Buehler, Bobby Miller, Skubal, Ragans, Eflin, Baz, Hunter Greene

Justin Mason: Keep Miller, Skubal, and Eflin

Justin Mason: Thank you all for chatting with me. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!