Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 13th, 2025

January 13, 2025

Here is today’s chat transcript

8:49

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

9:01

Mochi: 14 team points dynasty league, have the #2 pick in FYPD. Looking at Roki, Bazzana, Kristian Campbell (somehow he’s in the pool). Roki at 2 would be my preferred outcome but don’t think it’s gonna happen.

Thanks and good luck with the quitting smoking. Just keep reminding yourself of how much money you’ll save.

9:01	Justin Mason: I would take Sasaki if he is there, but if not, Campbell for me.

9:01	Justin Mason: and Thank you!

9:01	Jesse: How much does your Mason Miller love change in a SVH league? Still a premier RP, right?

9:01	Justin Mason: yes, the overall closer pool drops in value, but Miller is still elite.

9:01	Luke S: Any cheap NL-Only OF’s that you are interested in?

9:03	Justin Mason: Alek Thomas, Kyle Stowers, Jerar Encarnacion, Joshua Palacios, Sean Bouchard

9:04	Jesse: Rank keepers in a 5×5 12 teamer with moderate-intense keeper inflation on the pitching side: Pablo Lopez (5th round), Gerritt Cole (4th round), Michael King (4th round), Chris Sale (3rd round).

9:04	Justin Mason: Cole, Lopez, King, Sale

9:04	Ray Smuckles: 10 team keeper, pts league. My hitting is set, but my pitching is a bit of mess. Any juice for R. Lowder, C. Bradford, or Spencer Ara-whatever?

9:05

Justin Mason: I like all three to be honest. Bradford is probably my favorite but only because I think unless there is an injury in Cincy, Lowder is probably the odd man out in the rotation to start the season. Arrghetti is a really interesting upside play in Houston if he can keep the command and control in check.

9:06

Hold Me: In a 10 player keep forever, 12-team league with 2 UT spots and BB as a hitter category and IP as a pitching category.
My 1st 6 I’m keeping are: Witt. Abrams. Caminero. Langford. Ragans. Skubal.
I see the other 4 possibles as: J. Naylor. Crews. Butler. Holliday. McClanahan. Jh. Duran. Semien. Mayo.

I went through a rebuild to get younger. Didn’t like losing that much, don’t really want to go through another year of that, unless it is best.
Jhoan Duran is there because if I don’t keep a closer have to use 2 of 1st 3 pick in draft to get good in that category.
1B is kind of thin, so Naylor makes since that way.

Who would you pick?

9:06	Justin Mason: Crews and Butler for sure. Semien and Duran for the other two.

9:06	Idiotic Failson: I have Edward Cabrera for $6 in a $400 budget dynasty league. Is he worth hanging onto? I have a mountain of pitching so he’s very expendable.

9:07	Justin Mason: nope

9:07	Scotty: 12T, Categories, 16 keepers. Choosing between my last 2 keepers of McClain, O’Hoppe, Turang, Jhoan Duran, Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez. Any suggestions?

9:08	Justin Mason: Duran and McLain for me

9:08	Pete: Hey Justin, I can keep one player in Rd. 14 ADP #225 in a 15 team league out of Roman Anthony, David Festa, Bubba Chandler and DJ Herz. Which one if any would you recommend keeping at this price tag?

9:08	Justin Mason: Anthony. Love his upside

9:08	Pop: Do you see another level for Lawerence Butler, Riley Greene, or Wyatt Langford? All their Savant metrics are sexy

9:09

Justin Mason: I don’t know if I see a ton more for Greene, but he is still young and could take another step. I love Bulter to carry over what he did last season for a full year in a better park. I think Langford is the one that could take a massive step forward. Really adjusted after struggling early.

9:10

Idiotic Failson: Every year people buy shares in players hoping for some ‘change in scenery’ upside. I have some of those guys already on my rosters. I was thinking though that I can’t remember a durable change of scenery candidate that really turned it around on a new team (volatile relievers aside). Can you think of any?

9:11	Justin Mason: I think it likely is more overblown like you insinuate here, but there are examples. For instance, Michael Busch last season, JD Martinez previously. Guys don’t typically turn into stars though

9:11	On Geloff?: Have you dug into Gelof at all this offseason? His huge K rate killed him last year, but he still has 20/20 or more potential. Are you in at all?

9:13	Justin Mason: His terrible in zone contact will continue to plague him. That being said, moving to a new park that could increase the power a bit and the fact the A’s really don’t have anything else at second makes him a 20/30 threat in spite of the average likely being a massive problem still.

9:13	Pop: Assuming relative value across leagues, what positions are you paying the premium prices for?

9:14	Justin Mason: I think Closer for sure. Then likely outfield especially in deeper leagues. I don’t really pay a premium for positions though. I feel like this is overrated and tends to leave other value on the board for other people.

9:14	Pop: Can the Rays unlock something on Morel, or is he just fated to be Gallo-esque?

9:14	Justin Mason: If any team can, I think the Rays can. That being said, I don’t think they will

9:14	Mochi: Do you think Suarez is in danger of losing any PAs in Arizona with their somewhat crowded IF (assuming health for Lawlar)?

9:15	Justin Mason: Nope. Lawlar will not play third. Perdomo loses time once Lawlar comes up.

9:15	Hold Me: Related to the keeper question you answered above. Semien over Holliday? Is that merely for present value in the coming year? Curious as to why not Holliday?

9:15	Justin Mason: It is the present day value. I still believe in Holliday long term, but I play to win now.

9:15	Ice Cream Helmet: 10T 5×5. Have option on a $3 Robbie Ray keeper. Value there or toss him back?

9:15	Justin Mason: Toss him back

9:16	Pumpsie Green: NL only, 5×5 with OBP instead of average. We keep 15. Will probably be about 15% inflation. I have Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 at $ 3. He is my 15th & I have no other posibilities. Keep him at $3 or drop him & fish for someone else?

9:16	Justin Mason: keep him

9:16	Idiotic Failson: Was last year’s pre-injury Yelich performance sustainable? It is an outlier from his recent years, but he’s put up big numbers in the past.

9:16	Justin Mason: I think it is sustainable, but I also am petrified of his injuries. I want to see him play in spring with no limitations before I draft him.

9:17

Jerry di Poto Wannabe: Trades I’ve made in a 16 team dynasty this offseason (young players are on a six year graduated scale contract; guys I acquired listed last):

$3 Jackson Holliday and $0 Owen Caissie for $27 Tyler Glasnow
$11 Christian Yelich for $7 Joe Ryan
$10 Luis Gil, $3 David Festa, $0 Bubba Chandler for $10 Logan Gilbert

How did I do?

9:17	Justin Mason: I think you did ok overall. I worry about that Glasnow trade hurting if his elbow blows up

9:17	Pop: Over Under 20HRS/15 SBS: Luis Garcia, Jonathan India, Jordan Westburg,

9:18	Justin Mason: Garcia- over on both India- under on both Westburg under on both

9:18	Justin Mason: I need more questions!!!

9:19	Idiotic Failson: Bazzana break camp with the MLB team?

9:19	Justin Mason: nope

9:19	Colton: We have officially moved on from Suwinski to Michael Toglia, let’s go baby

9:19	Justin Mason: Don’t put evil on him!

9:19	Pop: In or out on each of the Mariners SPs…

9:20	Justin Mason: Gilbert, Castillo, Kirby, Miller – In Woo – Out

9:21	Justin Mason: Shoot. I accidentally deleted a hoffman question about him failing two physicals before signing with the Blue Jays. Definitely concerning, so if I draft him, I probably handcuff him to Yimi

9:21	Idiotic Failson: Dynasty auction league with $400 budget. Do you keep Mookie at $79?

9:21	Justin Mason: That feels close, but I think I do

9:21	Colton: You think Bubba Chandler breaks with the big league team?

9:21	Justin Mason: I don’t but I think he could be up early like Skenes was

9:22	Lowetide: Is Nolan Schanuel a better bet in a head-to-head league than Jake Burger or Josh Bell?

9:22	Justin Mason: really depends on your format, but I tend to lean Burger here

9:22	Mochi: any chance Joc gets 1B or OF eligibility this year? Surely not right?

9:22	Justin Mason: I don’t think so

9:22	Jeff: 12 team 5×5 roto, keep 15 league. Which side do you like more for this year only? Alonso and Albies or Vlad and L. Garcia (2B)?

9:22	Justin Mason: Vlad

9:23

Former smoker: 20 year smoker been done for 6 years now. Stack hours. Then stack days. Don’t worry if what worked for someone else doesn’t work for you. When you get to three days, congratulate yourself and think about how you never want to do those three days again. A week is a really big accomplishment. If you slip up and have one, don’t beat yourself up and don’t think of it as going back to square one. You’ve done good work, it’s a blip, move forward. You got this.

9:23	Justin Mason: I really appreciate this!

9:23	Pop: Jackson Jobe or Kumar Rocker

9:23	Justin Mason: Jobe

9:23	Hold Me: Holliday, Bazzana or Condon long term preference?

9:23	Justin Mason: Holliday but close on Bazzana

9:24	Rob: 15 team mixed dynasty points – keep 15 – competitive roster (2nd place last yr) – last two spots, would you rather keep blah veterans nate lowe or ryan mcmahon or gamble on upside with tyler soderstrom and nolan gorman? all for utility slots and backups at their regular position

9:24	Justin Mason: McMahon and Soderstrom

9:24	Jeff: More likely to break with team out of camp, Anthony or Campbell? Really feels like they need both a 2B and RH bat, so my gut says Campbell.

9:24	Justin Mason: Anthony. I think Campbell definitely starts in the minors.

9:24	Pop: In or out: Baz, Pepiot, Rasmussen, and Bradley

9:25	Justin Mason: Baz, Pepiot – In Bradley – Still unsure Rasmussen – Out

9:25	Bobby Peru: 16 tm standard league with 8 keepers. Pick 1 of Logan Webb, Volpe, Willson Contreras

9:25	Justin Mason: Contreras in a 2C league. Webb in a 1C league

9:26	Mochi: Milwaukee bullpen situation gonna be a committee type thing again or do you think someone shakes loose and gets the majority (Megill?)?

9:26	Justin Mason: I think Megill gets the first shot, but we saw last year that they had a quick hook on Uribe when he struggled

9:26	Cody: Are you selling high on Chris Sale in dynasty? If it’s for another pitcher, what are you hoping for at the very least?

9:26	Justin Mason: I want a top 30 pitcher if possible. Otherwise I just roll with Sale.

9:26	Pop: Buying a power rebound for Julio Rodriguez?

9:26	Justin Mason: I am. I think he will be fine.

9:26	Jeff: Confidence level in Royce Lewis this year? Feels like the range of outcomes for him is wider than any other player.

9:27	Justin Mason: On a per plate appearance basis, he is a stud. I just don’t know if we can trust him to play 140 games at this point.

9:27	Justin Mason: I am still taking shots with him though

9:27	Mochi: Any long term commitment concerns with Gil in Dynasty? Doesn’t feel great thinking about it

9:28	Justin Mason: I worry more about the short term after the massive innings jump. I think long term he can be a very good Sp2/3 in fantasy

9:28	Colton: Bryan Reynolds worth keeping at $26? 8 team league with a salary cap of $500. Originally I thought he was going to be a drop but it’s just rock solid production every single year

9:28	Justin Mason: I think that is a good price

9:28

Hold Me: Also, I think quitting smoking might have been the hardest thing I’ve ever done. Its been almost 11 years now and I still think about smoking 3-5 times a week.
But the pull of doing it is so MUCH LESS now than when I was smoking for me.
Best of luck with your endeavors.

My wife is the one who helped me quit with her constant reminders of how much the smoking stunk me up.
Along with not wanting to go through quitting again, thinking about my kids helps to keep the smoking in the past.

9:29	Justin Mason: I am really hoping it sticks this time. I have been smoking for 30 years off and on with a lot more on time than off. I appreciate the kind words!

9:29	Pete: What do you think of Jared Jones this year?

9:30	Justin Mason: I am a little tentative on him. I really like the stuff, but I do wonder what the innings will look like and if he can keep the command in check consistently.

9:30	Jeff: Follow up on the Lewis question. I can keep him for $14 ($320 budget for 15 players), but I also have a lot of cheap players and wiggle room. Do I look to move Lewis and his cheap salary for a $37 Machado if I can afford to keep him? I expect to compete this year.

9:30	Justin Mason: I would keep him at $14

9:30	Mochi: Think Povich ever ascends past a back end of the rotation guy?

9:31	Justin Mason: Definitely could and with the Orioles not going and getting a stud for the rotation, it is a matter of time before he is in the rotation.

9:31	Pop: Which “Old Reliable” hits the wall this year?

9:32	Justin Mason: That’s tough. No one is really jumping to mind. Castellanos maybe? Arozarena?

9:32	comish4lif: Resources that help with auctions and NL only leagues are few and far between. Is my 12 team, NL only Rotisserie league that rare?

9:32	Justin Mason: Tanner Bell’s Smart Fantasy Baseball software!

9:33	Pop: Who is lesser known writer in the industry that you would recommend?

9:33	Justin Mason: Blake Meyer

9:33	Idiotic Failson: Bubba Chandler in the opening day rotation?

9:33	Justin Mason: I don’t think so

9:33	Jeff: Giants chance of signing Roki? If not the Giants, please anyone but Dodgers (or Padres).

9:33	Justin Mason: 5%

9:33	Justin Mason: I think there is a 75% chance he is a Dodger or Padres

9:34	Mike: 4 keepers in OBP and K/9 league. Have Carroll, Riley, Langford, Crochet, but considering subbing in Vientos, CJ Abrams, or Jarren Duran. Thoughts? No round differences.

9:34	Justin Mason: I would keep Duran over Langford.

9:34	Colton: Have you ever considered an article about your favorite fantasy player to get from each team? Could be some fun content in there

9:34	Justin Mason: I definitely could do something like that! I will add it to my To Be Written list!

9:35	Mochi: Do you think it would be beneficial for you to have Paul not turn his camera on while you’re working on quitting smoking since he’s shaped like a 100 that Cruella de Vil would stick in a cigarette holder while strolling menacingly through her mansion?

9:35	Justin Mason: OMG! I just spit my drink out

9:35	Justin Mason: Infinite points awarded

9:35	Colton: So who is your favorite Athletic to draft then

9:35	Justin Mason: Lawrence Butler

9:35	Bobby Peru: Which rookies are you aggressively drafting this year to start immediately?

9:35	Justin Mason: Roman Anthony

9:36	Justin Mason: and Emmanuel Rodriguez

9:36	Justin Mason: and Matt Shaw

9:36	comish4lif: Paying a premium for closers. In my league (auction, 12 team, NL only) the good closers will go for $25-35. At what point is it worth punting saves and putting that money into offense?

9:37	Justin Mason: I almost never punt saves in an only unless you just spam some back up closers. I think I would spend upwards of $28 if I needed too.

9:37	Justin Mason: In that case, just get one and spam 1-2 relievers that could fall into a job

9:37	Mochi: Think Shaw settles at 2B long term?

9:37	Justin Mason: I think long term he does, but reports are that he looks good at third

9:38	Jeff: Tell me more about your love for Emmanuel Rodriguez? What are you expecting from him this year?

9:39	Justin Mason: I probably shouldn’t be as interested as I am, but the tools are just so damn loud. That being said, I could see him really struggling because of the bad hit tool. but the power speed combo is enticing and he is a pretty good defender which is important to Minnesota.

9:39	rickey: what are realistic expectations for Wood and Crews this year?

9:40	Justin Mason: I think both are really talented. I am more excited for Wood, but I think both are playing every day this season out of the gate and are going to be 20/20 threats

9:40	comish4lif: Cigarettes at $10+/pack here in CT. I don’t see how anyone can afford to smoke. Good luck with quitting.

9:40	Justin Mason: $11-12 here. I spend so much money on them. It is time.

9:40	Idiotic Failson: If you were to pick a team that is not ‘your’ team to assign Roki to for maximum fun, which team is it? Roki to KC would be pretty rad.

9:41	Justin Mason: KC would be a ton of fun. I think the The Mets would be a lot of fun too. My favorite would be put him in DC. Give that young offense a young arm

9:41	Jeff: Will Nats continue to platoon L. Garcia this year? I did a breakdown of his splits and looks like he started hitting a lot better against LHP towards end of the year. Not sure if that is a sign of things to come or if they were just selective who they let him play against?

9:42	Justin Mason: I don’t know that they can a ton with their current roster. Tena will need to be platooned too and they only have Rosario as a back up infielder right now.

9:43	Snorf: How much does Snell’s utterly bananas second half change your thinking about him.

9:43	Justin Mason: It doesn’t. We all know that talent is in there, but health and inconsistency is too.

9:44	Colton: Favorite late round shot in the dark right now? Like 50th round pick

9:44	Justin Mason: Brady House

9:44	Mochi: RosterResource has Jace Jung as the Tigers 3B, we feel good about that or kinda wait and see re: Bregman? Can’t imagine a Tork trade brings back someone above Jung for 3B

9:45	Justin Mason: I really think Bregman ends up in Detroit.

9:45	Jeff: My keeper pitchers are a bunch of cheap guys coming off injury – Shane, Sandy, DeGrom, and Bautista(RP) along with Skubal and Yamamoto. Am I taking on too much risk with that group?

9:46	Justin Mason: That is a crap ton of risk, but I think you will be ok.

9:46	Justin Mason: Need more questions!

9:47	Mochi: Will D’Arnaud get enough PA in LAA to be rosterable?

9:47	Justin Mason: I assume you mean Travis, but probably not unless there is an injury

9:48	Jeff: Sophomore slumps – anyone in particular you are worried about?

9:49	Justin Mason: Just did three episode on this topic over the last three weeks. Tobias Meyers, Kyle Harrison, Mitchell Parker, Simeon Woods Richardson, Mitch Spence, Joey Estes, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ceddanne Rafaela, Tyler Fitzgerald

9:49	Bart: Does C Mayo get any playing time this season?

9:49	Justin Mason: I really hope so. I think this is a post hype sleeper this season

9:50	Colton: Oo I have a follow up from a question I asked a few weeks ago about getting into NFBC style leagues and I tried doing one of the NFBC $50 and found out I cannot play season long league in Arizona, was very sad about that

9:50	Justin Mason: ugh, that sucks. I know some people use a VPN. This is not legal advice

9:50	Mochi: The Bo Bichette Top 5 SS era is over, where do you think he settles over the next 18 months? Top 15? …if he’s even still playing SS in 2026

9:50	Justin Mason: I think he is probably top 20

9:50	Mochi: On a scale of 1 to 10, how frustrated are you if you’re an Orioles fan with this offseason?

9:50	Justin Mason: 20

9:51	Guest: Which Justin Mason t-shirt is your favorite, and why is it the one where Eno murders you? Secondly, do you think that Caleb Durbin can eke out a role for himself in Milwaukee with his terrible EVs?

9:51	Justin Mason: That is one of my favorite for sure. I also love the Justin Mason Main Event one.

9:52	Justin Mason: Durbin’s value is going to depend a lot on his defense. He can make a lot of contact and get on base via the walk, but infield defense is important to the Brewers, so that will be an issue if he can’t hang defensively.

9:53	Shaw: What do you do when you have too many keepers for available keeper slots? Drastically overpay in a trade to consolidate 2-3 good keepers plus 1 great keeper in exchange 1 even greater keeper)? or release them back into the pool so that you can maybe get them back?

9:53	Justin Mason: Really depends on my league. If I think I can get them back, then I usually just release them, but if I can package them to get a stud, I will

9:54	Idiotic Failson: Are the Yankees waiting to move Stroman to address the obvious and ludicrous hole in their infield?

9:54	Justin Mason: I don’t think they’d get much back for him to be honest

9:54	Mochi: Is this Jordan Walker’s last chance to fulfill the hype?

9:54	Justin Mason: Won’t be his last chance, but he needs to do something

9:54	Bobby Peru: Who is on your do not draft list this year? I get anyone is draftable if the price gets low enough but who are you still avoiding at, say, a 8 round discount or 30% auction discount?

9:55	Justin Mason: I don’t typically have a do not draft list. I take guys where I value them. I don’t worry about market value very much. If a guy falls to a point where he is a value to me, I take him. If he doesn’t, he isn’t on my team

9:55	Bart: Do you have any sleeper picks for the 2025 FYPD draft?

9:56	Justin Mason: I don’t know enough about that yet to say. I follow Matt Thompson for a lot of my FYPD stuff. Chris Clegg, James Anderson, Eric Cross also do great work.

9:56	Snorf: For Yamamoto year 2, are you giving him points for added comfort/familiarity or are you more “what we saw is what we’ll get” until something convinces you otherwise?

9:56	Justin Mason: I will have more on this in the next week or two. I am going to be digging into the historical data on Japanese pitchers in their second season. To be continued…

9:57	Joey: Any more in the tank for Joey Ortiz? Deep league with OBP and doubles. A few more HR/SBs and a better lineup spot and he could be sneaky good

9:57	Justin Mason: I really don’t see much more power coming to be honest. Maybe a few more steals and a better average/OBP

9:58	Mochi: think there’s any chance we see Nick Kurtz in Sacramento this year?

9:58	Justin Mason: Nope

9:58	Pop: Thank Justin. Appreciate your time today, go luck kicking the ciggys

9:58	Justin Mason: Thank you! I really appreciate it!

9:58	Jeff: Parker Meadows really turned it on towards the end of the season, one of my favorite sleepers. Anyone else that finished strong that can be had for relatively cheap that you like?

9:59	Justin Mason: Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, Jeffrey Springs

9:59	Colton: Justin I just want to say that you’re a machine in your chats, the pace you get through questions is quite astonishing