Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 12, 2026

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Austin Wells‘s middle finger: Tell Paul I said hi

Justin Mason: I will, but I am afraid you could replace me on the podcast

Justin Mason: point awarded

Carlo: Best guess… how many games are missed in 2027 due to the lockout? Entire season?

Justin Mason: I am going to say we miss half the season. I hope I am wrong but I think there is a considerable gap that will be difficult to find a solution for

Kyle: Am I the only one who isn’t worried about Bellinger not re-signing with the Yanks? I want to see Jasson Dominguez get a full season

Justin Mason: I think if the Yankees want to roll with Dominguez, that’s fine, but they need to do something. Maybe turn the Bellinger money into pitching?

Brax: First time playing and running a dynasty fantasy league . 10 teams. Best advice?

Justin Mason: ok, so without further context, do not fence sit. If you are rebuilding or thinking about long term, then go full boar. If you are competing then take advantage of people that are going to  undervalue older players. Don’t try and do both

John S: Who is the one player (can be any position) you’re planting your flag on who is currently being drafted outside of the top 150 who will finish the season in the the top 75?

Justin Mason: Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen. Hitter: Andrew Vaughn

showbusiness77: Do we think Belli’s time in NYY has come to an end? If they don’t land him, do you think they pivot to anyone else? Or just enjoy the Salary attrition and work a trade? Who would you trade for?

Justin Mason: I do wonder if this is a bluff. I dont know anyone that is giving Bellinger a seven year deal especially as the market has slowed down weirdly. I think there is still a chance that he ends up back in New York.

Justin Mason: I would love to see them make a move for Peralta

Barf Barfallomew: Do we believe in Stowers? No HR against LHP makes me nervous.

Justin Mason: Well, he did hit one versus lefties, but that is a little concerning. Mostly, I would be concerned with the underlying contact skills. 16% swinging strike rate and 78% Z-Contact are not good so I would be concerned with the batting average cratering and the strikeout rising.

Jesse: What traditional platoon guy would you be most interested in getting full-time at bats next year (and why is it Romy Gonzalez)?

Justin Mason: Romy is interesting if the Red Sox dont make a move after losing Bregman, but I cant see them just standing still. They could be a team in on Hoerner or look to a guy like Paredes. I think there are just too many paths to losing playing time for Romy in spite of the teams current construction.

Justin Mason: Give me my boy Colt Keith

Bazanna Banana: How big is that stick gonna be and when do we get to see it?

Justin Mason: The Guardians prospect list just came out on the site so I would definitely look at that. I think he will be a pretty good pure hitter, but his lack of aggressiveness will be an issue but that can be coached up. The power is probably close to league average and the speed is above average. With the weakness at 2B, he will be valuable when he is up. He is likely given a shot mid-to-late season this year

Colton: How many A’s hitters it too many to target? I currently have 6 of them in my regular targets

Justin Mason: Jacob Wilson윌슨, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers and Lawrence Butler make six

Carson: Hey Justin! 12 team dynasty league, and a guy is dangling Detmers pretty hard for me. How much do you like his upside heading into 2026, and should I pull the trigger?

Justin Mason: I am not a believer in Detmers as a starter so he doesnt register for me in most 12s.

James: Thoughts on Tatis Jr next year? I would be spending $40 to keep him. Alternatives would be Bradish ($10), Yelich ($11) or M.Miller ($21)

Justin Mason: He’s a star and I am keeping him in most formats at $40

K2: Is Podapalooza coming back for 2026? If so, do you know the dates?

Justin Mason: tentatively scheduled for February 21-22!

Justin Mason: Will know more soon

The Big Dumper: Hi Justin, thanks for doing these chats! I’ve been a believer in getting a horse SP in the first two rounds, however after starting my draft prep, I might be leaning against that strategy. Let’s say a standard 5×5 roto league, would you take a SP in say the back half of round 1 or early round 2 or wait it out? (For the purposes of this, let’s say Skenes and Skubal are not available)

Justin Mason: I think if I am not targeting one of the big three, I would likely wait for the third or fourth round for my starter. Depends obviously where in the draft your pick is, but Hunter Brown and Cristopher Sanchez are going in the top of the third, Bryan Woo at the end of the third, Logan Webb at the end of the fourth, and Joe Ryan in the fifth are all very enticing. I think Yamamoto is the only second round pitcher I would target

Carson: Where is the best fit for Bichette next year and should I be nervous he remains unsigned?

Justin Mason: Im not worried he is unsigned. The Yankees could be an interesting fit especially if they are worried about Volpe. Love to see him sign with my Giants to play second. Seattle could be nice too

Justin Mason: obviously the Blue Jays would be a great fit as well, but it looks like they are moving on

K2: Good morning Justin! Thanks for the chat!! Great pod yesterday. 10-team NL only roto question. Keeping Skenes ($10) and Sheehan ($5). Would you also add any of these to that pair? Quinn Priester ($10), Hurston Waldrep ($5), or Cade Cavalli ($5).

Justin Mason: Priester for me

Dodgers Blue: Thank you for the catcher review you put together.  In looking through your rankings, how confident are you that Ryan Jeffers can rebound to a 20 HR campaign, after his ISO plummeted last year?  Secondly, do you see Carter Jensen has a high variance  high upside play as a 2nd catcher in a 12 team league – or would you rather someone guaranteed more playing time even if that comes with less upside?

Justin Mason: I think Jensen is going to go up in my ranks next update after the podcast we had last week. I am going to bet on the upside and hope the playing time works out especially in a 12 teamer where there is some replacement value/ As far as Jeffers goes, I dont think he gets back to 20, but I do think he is mid to upper teens in homers

Broken Bat: What do see as odds go in regards to Cubs: 1. Trade Niko before season starts

Justin Mason: I think there is a 90% chance he is moved

Justin Mason: Send him to my Giants please

Dodgers Blue: Assuming McLean is an untouchable, who of Tong, Sproat and Scott gets traded and what does a return on that trade look like for the Mets?

Justin Mason: I think tong is the most likely moved, but I do wonder if the lack of Mets moves this offseason is indicative of them not moving any of their prospects and using 2026 as a “reload year” instead of a rebuild. I think they could instead move some of their older rotation pieces and just roll with a lot of the young guys.

Insert Witty Name Here: How confident are you spending a 2nd rounder on Kurtz? It’s hard to fake 36 dingers even in SacTown.

Justin Mason: I am fine spending a second rounder on Kurtz, just not pick 18. I want to get him around 25 or in the back end of the second round, not the front half

Insert Witty Name Here: I checked out Ben Rice’s savant page and I had flashbacks to the movie Carrie.  That’s a lot of red…tell me why I shouldn’t get too carried (no pun intended) away?

Justin Mason: You should get carried away. All that red and catcher eligible hitter hitting in the middle of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge is a dream scenario

Carter: Reading thru this chat…. You think we miss half the ‘27 season? At that point both sides might as well just dig in and skip the entire season and find a long term CBA solution that can make sure there’s no work stoppages for a decade

Justin Mason: I think if we get to the All-Star Break the players have to be willing to just lose the season. The owners wont want a full season loss including playoff so it is really up to the players to hold their ground because the owners will be willing to lose most of the season but not the postseason

Martin: Hello sir. Please pick two keepers from this list. Cost is the same for all. 16 tm 6×6 H2H OPS league. Riley Greene, Vinnie P, Hunter Goodman & Oneil Cruz.

Justin Mason: Vinnie P and Goodman

Justin Mason: In a one catcher league, I could see the argument for Greene over Goodman

Guest: Chandler Simpson a much better fantasy player than real one and the Rays have a million OF.  Can he hold onto a job enough to get 30 SB?  50?  I can live with zero HR if he’s contending for the league lead in SB.

Justin Mason: I think he can get30+ for sure and I do think the Rays will trade an outfielder or two before the start of the season.

Law Office of Lowe and Lowe: Piggbyacking off of the question earlier about players being drafted outside the top 150 to finish in the top 75, which player or players currently being drafted in the top 75 finish outside of the top 175

Justin Mason: Not including injury risk:
Hitter: Pete Crow-Armstrong Pitcher: Blake Snell

Justin Mason: Pitcher was really hard though

Rob: 15 team mixed dynasty points – keep which 2 of these: Manzardo, Baty, A Vaughn?

Justin Mason: Vaughn, but I love Baty

Insert Witty Name Here: How much do you drop a players value when playing in a pitchers park? Looking at Vinny P and Josh Naylor specifically here

Justin Mason: Really depends on the hitter. A guy like Vinnie P is going to hit well in any park. Naylor I have more questions about how the power translates in Seattle though he did hit nine homers after being traded in just 210 PAs

F— Rob Manfred: Thoughts on Cam Smith for this year?

Justin Mason: I think he really needs to hit in Spring Training or he will be in the minors to start the season

CJBaseball16: Farley, Lowe. Simpson. Mullins. Something has to give with that all LH outfield right?

Justin Mason: I think Lowe gets moved

CJBaseball16: Justin are you or Paul playing in LABR or Four Wars this

Justin Mason: I am playing in both!

Carson: (Last one from me I promise) Mike Burrows in a 12 team dynasty, do we like the upside in Houston off waivers? One of those guys I have always had an affinity for that I can’t explain.

Justin Mason: Burrows is not super interesting to me considering the command ups and downs and moving to Houston from PNC. He will have better win potential, but he is more of a streamer in 12s

Hooha: I haven’t heard much hype around Carson Benge for the upcoming year, yet he’s a highly rated prospect and currently penciled into a starting job in a good offense.  What am I missing?

Justin Mason: I think he is an interesting deep league play if he can win that job. I keep waiting for the Mets to do something that knocks him out of it, but they havent yet. He doesnt really have a carrying tool for fantasy. He could be an accumulator if he has the role

Dodgers Blue: What is the likelihood the Braves make a move for a SP given that all of Sale, Strider, Schwelly and Reynaldo have dealt with recent injuries and Waldrep has all of 11 MLB starts to his credit?  Especially since both Holmes and Reynaldo have relief experience, I’d think a championship caliber team would want one more reliable guy in their rotation and use both of these guys out of the pen.  Or do you think they are plenty comfortable with Holmes and Elder getting plenty of starts if something goes wrong?

Justin Mason: Feels like they are going to roll with what they have, but I would love to see them open up the pocketbook for a guy like Framber and really stabilize that rotation. I agree it is way too risky for them to go into the season with the injury risk they have. They need a horse, but I havent heard them linked to any

Aren: Hey Justin. Jeremy Pena’s 2025 breakout seems to be fueled by a) a .345 BABIP and b) the decision/ability to start absolutely torching fastballs. As an owner of Pena at $11 in an Ottoneu FGpts 12 team league, does the ability to hit fastballs well correlate well YoY? His fastball xwoba last year was up there with some A++ hitters.

Justin Mason: I believe they do correlate well and I like for what he is, a very good accumulator. I think the BABIP regresses some, but no reason he can be a 15/20 guy with a .270 average

CJBaseball16: Full season of Simpson with no Mangum behind him. Does he reach 50sbs? Also thoughts on a Santander bounceback?

Justin Mason: I think Simpson definitely can if they trade an outfielder, but there is risk that he ends up back in the minors if there are any struggles. Rick/Reward play

Justin Mason: As far as Santander goes, I think 2025 is an injury washout we can just ignore. If healthy, I think he bounces back to his 2024 levels of being a 30 homer guys with a 240-250 average

CJBaseball16: Are your giants in on Suarez or framber and do you think they land one? Or could they sneakily be in on Bichette?

Justin Mason: I think if they land anyone, it’s Bichette or Bellinger. The Giants have shown they are unwilling to give long term deals to free agent pitchers. I think it is much more likely that they dont do anything and roll with what they have because they have shown to be fence sitters

Dodgers Blue: Simple: First Base Bench Depth, who you got?  Eldridge or Caglianone?

Justin Mason: Jac

closer than you think: Does Devin Williams need to be handcuffed?

Justin Mason: I dont think so

Bobby: I have to commit to Cam Smith this year in dynasty, but I’m unsure if I want to lock up dollars in him (auction salary cap league with up to 5 year “contracts”). Trade for value or keep him and believe?

Justin Mason: That is really tough. I think I would trade him for value if I am competing this season

Rickey: So what now for Matt Shaw? Do you think the Cubs are likely to make room for him with a Hoerner trade, and if not, how many plate appearances are there out there for him as a super utility guy? And as a bonus: Is Kevin Alcantara going to get a real shot this year?

Justin Mason: I think the Cubs are trading Hoerner and Shaw will move to second. Buy low right now on him if you can. I do not think Alcantara gets a real shot

Guest: for a 20 team roto cat league fypd are you going Murakami, Imai, or Kade Anderson 1.1

Justin Mason: Anderson if you are in a rebuild or not competing. Imai if you are

CJBaseball16: I feel like I’m going to be the guy who’s simply out on Ben Rice this year. I get the statcast data, but he’s being drafted like he is an elite C, not he has a chance to be.

Justin Mason: 650-700 PAs hitting third for the yankees is too good to pass up on

Justin Mason: obvouisly the Yankees could do something to change that, but we love non-catching catcher

batsnballs, no glove pls: Judge leading off for the Yankees this year?

Justin Mason: I dont think so

James: Will Royce Lewis finally put a healthy (and decent!) season together and does the late season steals breakout continue in 2026?

Justin Mason: I have a hard time believing he will but you know I will be a buyer at the price to wishcast it

Shawn miller: over under basallo bombs 27?

Justin Mason: Under, but close

liquid courage: Is Devers the backup 3b if chapman goes down?  how does a bosox fan feel about trading away devers now?

Justin Mason: No, I think Devers days at third are over. I think most Red Sox fans are pretty upset by it especially after Bregman left

Guest: For dynasty league, 24 teams, would you take Samuel Basallo, Luke Keaschall or Chase Burns? Rebuilding team.

Justin Mason: Basallo

Insert Witty Name Here: For the old heads who’ve been playing for a while and have really good institutional knowledge about the player pool: how deep of a dive would you suggest in prep before you get to diminishing returns?

Justin Mason: Thats a very good question. As someone who spends way too much time digging, I bet after two months of deep diving there isnt a ton you are going to learn. That being said, it only takes one gem to make it worth it and you never know when you will find that

Draft Prep: Trying to get my podcast schedules in one place, what days is Sleeper and the Bust coming out from now through Opening Day? Is it going to be the usual Sunday release?

Justin Mason: We will definitely go every Sunday, Thursday and Friday. Will add Monday or Tuesday very soon as well. I would love to go daily at some point, but I don’t know if its in the cards

Rickey: Any upside for Jung Hoo Lee 이정후? Have him at $12 in an ottoneu league. He was such a drag for most of last year.

Justin Mason: I dont think so

Justin Mason: That’s my time. please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!