Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 24th, 2025

Mochi: Have Prelander Berroa in a 14 team dynasty, could use the extra roster spots and with the elbow issue news.  It goes from a bleak outlook to an even bleaker outlook.  Should I just stick and wait it out or free to cut bait?

Justin Mason: I would just cut bait at this point

Ckmookie: 12-team mixed 5×5 $260.  Pick 2 from Carroll $30, Trout $3, R. Lewis $1, Dominguez $1, PCA $1

Justin Mason: Lewis and Carroll

Idiotic Failson: I’ve had two of my fantasy dynasty drafts and the helium on Sasaki is INSANE. He’s being priced like a Cease level Ace with Cristopher Sanchez level projections. Is this another one of the fun market inefficiencies in fantasy baseball, or are the projections missing something?

Justin Mason: I think both can be true. The projections might be light, but there is no way he reaches the expectations of people drafting him where he is going.

Ben: 10-team, 10-P Roto league w/ QS instead of Wins. I’ve got a $12 Pablo Lopez, a $5 Bibee, and a $1 Ober. Probably only have space for 2 of the 3,they only keep for 2025. Who you got?

Justin Mason: This is tough because I love all three, but I will take Pablo and Ober

ACC: Trying to decide between last keep. 12 team roto, keep forever with no penalty. Choose between, Michael Harris, Jackson Merrill, Brent Rooker???? Already keeping Tatis, Ketel and Jo Ram.

Justin Mason: Merrill

Steve: In an OBP roto league, how do you rank the blob of young 2nd/3rd tier Shortstops – Volpe, Bichette, Tovar, McClain, Winn, Stott?

Justin Mason: Volpe, McLain, Tovar, Stott, Winn Bichette

Broken Bat: is there a site where I can view prior days velocity performance by pitcher for Spring Training Games ?

Justin Mason: Jeff Zimmerman would be a good person to ask. I honestly don’t know the answer

Tim: 16t H2H dynasty 7×7 (standard 5, plus BB and TH)….Zips thinks Nate Lowe is going to have a decent rebound in WAS, Are you buying? I already have Casas/Bohm for 1B, so he would be a UT bat

Justin Mason: I think Lowe will be a fine accumulator, but the days of him having massive upside are gone at this point. in a league that deep, he can volume for you

Mojo: Craig Yoho is Brewers closer by season’s end?

Justin Mason: Nope

Jameson4357: OBP league : Spencer Steer or Jake Burger

Justin Mason: Burger

Tim: 16t H2H dynasty 7×7 (standard 5, plus HLD and QS….feelings on Kutter Crawford? I have 11 SP including him and he seems like he’s a candidate to get squeezed from the rotation, especially with the tendinitis in play. I’d be inclined to hang on but the 80/20 doesn’t seem too positive

Justin Mason: I think the injury issue to start spring could lead to them pushing him out of a spot early, but there are so many injury risk pitchers, he will find his way back in at some point

Colton: Need another 1b in my 8 team dynasty. Could get Pasquantino or Toglia on the league min, which way would you go? It’s a points league as well, my gut leans Pasquantino but Toglia is so fascinating to me

Justin Mason: Vinnie P for me, but I agree that Toglia is really interesting

johnny5alive: I am in a long-time, dynasty nl only league with $270 salary cap.  We have some complicated rules, but bottom line is would you keep hunter goodman at $11? He is C eligible, and most calculators on this site have him between $8-10.  Wrinkle – given the contract I have him on, I would have to pay $50 into our pool to buy out his contract. I already have to buy out Evan Phillips since he won’t be closing and is hurt anyway.

Justin Mason: I really like Goodman as a high upside gamble. I would go with him

dale: Keeping Henderson & J Rodriguez in AL Only 6×6 (OBP & SLG instead of AVG, IP). Who are my other three out of
Rutschman (2 catcher league)
R Lewis
deGrom
Gil
Bryce Miller

dale: Add Lawrence Butler to my last post of possible keepers!

Justin Mason: Lewis, degrom, Butler

Guest: Do you think Coby Mayo makes the team coming out of ST?

Justin Mason: I really hope he does, but he will need to hit to get it. The orioles have no patience for young players that struggle. I would say it is 50/50

Alfresco: In the context of Scoresheet, which takes OBP into account, whom do you like more, Nootbaar or Jung Hoo Lee 이정후?

Justin Mason: Jung

Camilo Doval: Do you think Doval bounces back this year?

Justin Mason: really hard to tell. I need to watch him in spring. I don’t think he is getting the closer job back though’

UnchartedF: Do you think Maikel Garcia does enough to stick as an everyday player for the Royals this year?

Justin Mason: I do. The underlying numbers are great and I think the average bounces back to a .260ish range. He is a top target for me

Chris Sabo: Should I be dropping some of the Reds down my draft board because they have too many mouths to feed(CES, Candelario, Lux, Steer).

Justin Mason: I don’t think you need to. Remember at this point last season we were saying the same thing and then all of a sudden injuries and performance made it really clear. That will likely happen again

johnny5alive: I pick second in my NL only minor league draft – keeping in mind a lot of guys are already drafted from previous years. When looking at a guy like Dollander vs a guy like Sproat, do you opt for the pitcher not on the rockies?

Justin Mason: I just stay away from Rockies pitchers. Their environments and development are are just so bad

Tim: 16t H2H dynasty…my league has some interesting OF names available for the draft as FA. I have them ranked as: Nootbaar, Adell, NoJo, Conforto…does that look like the right order?

Justin Mason: Conforto, Noot, Adell for me

Guest: Rank the following starting pitchers – Darvish, Luis Castillo, Gore, Pivetta, Manaea, Ranger Suarez.

Justin Mason: Castillo, Darvish, Suarez, Manaea, Gore, Pivetta

Idiotic Failson: Any hope for Miguel Vargas? I love the prospect pedigree, and the price is as close to zero as you can get. Can he figure something out?

Justin Mason: I think he could be an interesting accumulator, but I don’t know that he ever becomes what people had expected.

Matt W.: Hi Justin,

Justin Mason: HI!

odd man out?: In my $260, 23-man, AL-only, 5×5 roto league, I have to drop one of the following players, all of whom have $5 salaries except for Duran at $20. Who’s the odd man out?

Maikel Garcia
Anthony Volpe
Jacob Wilson윌슨
Byron Buxton
Jackson Holliday
Jarren Duran ($20)
Jasson Dominguez

Justin Mason: Wilson

johnny5alive: All leagues are different, but more of a general question.  When you are getting to the last few keeper spots, and you have guys that are PROBABLY at the right price for their projected production, do you keep or throw back? For example, if you have a player at $5 that is probably worth $5, do you keep or discard and see if you can get an equal player cheaper?

Justin Mason: usually I will throw him back because I am looking for added value. The only caveat being if inflation will raise the price on him dramatically

Christina: Re: Rockies pitchers, does that include my Chase Dollander? I hope not!

Justin Mason: it does. sorry

Christina: How are you feeling about Clay Holmes as a starter? Not expecting a full season, but maybe the start of something promising?

Justin Mason: I have a hard time betting on these types of guys because it is just so hard to go from 60 ish innings a year to 150, but he is priced to buy and the new pitch should help a lot. I think he is a gamble you can take and know pretty quickly if it is working or you should drop him

Jason: Who are some Catchers you would target in an OBP roto league?

Justin Mason: Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera, Tyler Stephenson, Austin Wells, Cal Raliegh

Tim: Is Taijuan Walker being ranked dead last in Yahoo the least surprising thing ever? Or is there somebody somehow worse that should have that spot?

Justin Mason: that sounds about right lol

BD: In a 13 team SV+Hold league, is Mason Miller worth keeping in the 11th round? Or should I just wait till the end of the draft to fill out my 3 RP slots because there are so many options?

Justin Mason: I think so

Justin Mason: Miller is a stud as long as he is healthy

Guest: Who are some players that had down years in 2024 that you think will bounce back

Justin Mason: give me all the Rangers. Semien, Garcia, Jung. Also think that Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez, Jung Ho Lee, Austin Riley, JT Realmuto will all bounce bacl

Mike Tyson: Designated Hitter: 15 team roto dynasty format.  Acuna traded for Kurtz, Roki Sasaki and Tovar?  Thoughts?

Justin Mason: I don’t think you did bad, but I would have preferred a different piece to Tovar. If Sasaki is the real deal, you may end up coming out ahead by a lot

Chucky: 12 team keep forever with no contracts. Casas for Lewis?

Justin Mason: Lewis

Amish Man: Who are the guys we’re too excited about to see red flags? (Thinking Nolan Jones coming into 2024-looked like a good bet for 20-20, many overlooked crazy high 2023 babip)?

Justin Mason: Oneil Cruz, Pete Crow Armstrong, Christopher Morel, Zack Gelof

Nick: Trying to decide on my last keeper in a 12 team points league. Pick one of Holliday 22nd or Jaret Jones, Springs, McClain or X Edwards in the 25th. Keeping Tucker, Elly, Carroll and Langford already.

Justin Mason: depends on how long you can keep, but if it is forever, I would gamble on Holliday. If it is just for a year, Jones

Ichiro: Are you against taking multiple Mariners pitchers in a H2H weekly league? Their splits are significant and I feel like a week on the road could be bad news

Justin Mason: I am not opposed to it but I definitely don’t want three.

Stephen T: Ddd

Stephen T: I didn’t mean to hit send

Stephen T: Retyping my question!

Justin Mason: lol

Stephen T: Who’s to have the better season from these risky pitchers. Rank:

Justin Mason: hold down shift if you are trying to get to a new line when you hit enter

Tim: Is there anybody not currently in the Top 10 for SP’s that will work their way in by the end of the year?
also, are you keeping tabs on the “Lance Lynn could be signed to be someone’s closer” idea/chatter?

Justin Mason: Schwellenbach, Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Gerrit Cole (if healthy)

Thug, Life Partner: Trey Sweeny open year in MLB (not minors)?

Justin Mason: I think he opens on the strong side of a platoon at SS

jazzrunner12: How do see the KC outfield shaking out over the course of the year?  Renfroe, Isbel…seems to be the definition of mediocrity. Any new blood likely to get looks?  Cross or others?

Justin Mason: I think it is a rotating door unless there is a trade for someone

Peter: How soon do you think Roman Anthony is up or does he break camp with the Sox?

Justin Mason: I think at worst he is up by the end of april. I drafted him yesterday. He has too much talent to hold down

Wood: Not Justin but Spencer Schwellenbach will be a top 10 SP by end of year

Justin Mason: YES!

Tanner: Would you rather have Peralta ($15), Steele ($15), or Greene ($10)? standard league, with 9 teams.

Justin Mason: Steele

Stephen T: Who’s to have the better season from these pitchers? Rank: Spencer Strider, Shane McClanahan, Sandy Alcantara, Glasnow, and Jack Flaherty.

Justin Mason: McClanahan

Guest: Re: “Too excited about to see red flags”, am I crazy to object to everyone just assuming Merrill is now an early rounder?  Seems like people are assuming 2024 was the floor when it may well have been a best case

Justin Mason: I think there is a lot to like. Great contact skills with developing power. Plays great defense which will keep him in the lineup. I think he is like a prime Benentendi

Wood: Do we get 1st half Kwan or 2nd half Kwan?

Justin Mason: first half

Guest: Sasaki’s OOPSY – 5.29 ERA, 3.29 FIP? – seems like it has an oopsy in it

Justin Mason: yeah, that can’t be right

Nick: I saw my question posted but not your response

Justin Mason: depends on how long you can keep, but if it is forever, I would gamble on Holliday. If it is just for a year, Jones

Splendid Master Splinter: Most important but least focused on stat and why is it plate appearances?

Justin Mason: because at the end of the day, volume wins championships. If you can’t volume, you won’t win.

Stephen T: Will this be the year Houston collapses and not make playoffs?

Justin Mason: I don’t think so because no other team in the west got better

Stephen T: That high on Shane McC. Wow ok

Justin Mason: I don’t know if I am that high, but I really don’t like the injury risk pitcher group as a whole. At least Tampa has said they are going to push McClanahan.

Guest: Justin I can’t wait to ask you my question. It’s currently the most important thing on my mind and I’ve been waiting to ask all offseason:

Justin Mason: lmao

Bregman 2B: Will someone please tell the Red Sox that Bregman is WAY more valuable as a 2B/3B in my leagues vs. 3B only? And that I would appreciate some clarity.

Justin Mason: I will send them an email

Dave: 12 team NL only roto league.  I’m debating between I. Herrera or Ben Brown/ J.Wicks as my last keeper.  They’re all $1.  Do you keep Herrera as an accumulator for one of the two catcher spots or do you keep one of the pitchers and hope for the upside

Justin Mason: Herrera for me

Matt W.: Hi justin, glad to see you course corrected in the power department in the Barf draft. Who is your Brenton Doyle this year? Someone who will be drafted very late and becomes a stud out of nowhere.

Justin Mason: Tirso Ornelas

Thomas: In a 15-team 7×7 dynasty league using actual MLB contracts/service time/control years, what would a trade package for Vladdy look like, assuming it’s a one-year rental?  Start 25, each position + 4 utility, 5 SP and 7 RP. Cats are BA/OBP/SLG/HR/R/RBI/SB, ERA/WHIP/K:BB/K/BAA/SV+HD/QS

Justin Mason: I would want a lot back for Vladdy. at least four players with one top 25 guy

Ichiro: Do you think moving trout from CF to RF will actually help him stay healthy? In his interview he said he did the same prep this offseason

Justin Mason: I don’t

Justin Mason: I hope I am wrong though

trichobezoar: What park reputations have changed most in your mind as you’ve done your off season analysis?

Justin Mason: Probably Kansas City. I didn’t realize how much it helped BA

RAGBRAI: How do you see the OD Infield looking like in Cincy?

Justin Mason: Steer at 1B, McLain at 2B, Elly at SS, Candelario at 3B

Justin Mason: that is all my questions and time for the day!

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all social media platforms at JustinMasonFWFB and sign up for TGFBI satellite league at TGFBI.com