Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 23, 2026

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Projections: What are your go to projections for hitters and pitchers?

Justin Mason: So I do my own projections. If I wasn’t going to use my own, I would use THE BAT X for hitters and ATC for Pitchers.

H2h: On your pods, you and Paul talk about guys like elly, pca, etc being bad for h2h. Totally agree to a certain extent. But, is there a world where drafting a bunch of volatile guys is actually great? By that I mean, each week a different guy could be blowing up while the others are in their cold streaks

Justin Mason: Think of it like a math equation where you are multiplying percentages. When you multiple 50% by 50% it become lower (25%). The more volatile players you add to a team in H2H the more you multiplying your risk so the likelihood that you will hit actually becomes lower and lower. Yes, when they all magically do hit at once, it’s amazing and you reach that 99th percentile outcome, but the chances you will are very slim.

Insert Witty Name Here: Bryce Harper a post hype sleeper? Tongue in cheek obviously, but the not elite comments from Dombrowski, he’s one more year removed from his surgery, playing a less demanding position.   I’m thinking he is a massive value at his current ADP.  Curb my enthusiasm here, please.

Justin Mason: I dont know that I would call him a massive value, but I do think he is a pretty good one. The second half numbers, .262/.338/.524 with 17 homers and three stolen bases where fantastic and the underlying power skills were just as good. Some shaky contact skills in the second half, but I do think he should be going earlier than he is.

Guest: How many games do you think Buxton plays this year? Would you rather keep him over Bednar in a 12 team roto league?

Justin Mason: I think I wouldnt project him for more than 120 games and I would like just keep Bednar with how bad the closer pool is.

Joe: Who’s the lowest ranked SP you’d be ok with as your ace in a 12 team H2H league?

Justin Mason: If I was going to wait in a 12, I would be ok waiting until around 25-30 SPs were gone and starting my rotation with guys like Eury Perez or Nolan McLean. I don’t tend to do it, but it can be done very effectively this year because the pool is so deep.

Davidson: My friends and I are starting a dynasty league this year….but is this a bad year to try to start it with the lockout looking like it’s going to cancel all of 2027?

Justin Mason: It’s never a bad year to start one! I think we will lose games in 2027, but dont worry about that now and just enjoy the baseball we do have!

Ryno: Better upside very late 2B dart: Hyeseong Kim 김혜성 or Edouard Julian? Feels like both could have a path to tons of PAs with a hot start.

Justin Mason: It is really dependent on what you need. Both will be on platoons hitting at the bottom of the order, but Kim will be better for speed and Julian better for OBP and power. All things being equal, I would go Kim because I do think he could have the biggest breakout in the Dodgers lineup.

Keepers block: Hi Justin! Always appreciate you doing these! $300 budget, my keepers are: Maikel Garcia ($3), Keashall ($10), Colson Montgomery ($10), Jackson Merrill ($5), Chase Burns ($10), Bradish ($10), Devin Williams ($3) + Mason Miller ($5) Should I keep Ronald Acuna @ $59 or Marsee /Basallo@ $10. I can save that extra $$ and go after both Witt & Ohtani. My other conundrum: Cade Smith @ $10 — and would own the saves category with my other 2 closers or Lodolo @ $2 (good value for profile).  What do you think?

Justin Mason: I think I would throw back Acuna to go for Witt or Ohtani and then keep the savings going by keeping Lodolo.

Pumpsie Green: 10 team, AL only, I have Jordan Westburg for one year at $7. Is it worth it to keep him instead of throwing him back hoping to buy him back at a discount for 3 years.

Justin Mason: yeah, I would throw him back. I dont think he will play this year

IamMe: Who (if any) do you like to breakout in the COL OF (Beck, Doyle, McCarthy, Veen)?

Justin Mason: Give me Doyle from this group. He struggled last year but the underlying skills were fine and he was dealing with an off the field family tragedy. I think he bounces back in a big way. I do like McCarthy here as well especially at the price.

Carson: Hey Justin! What should I make of the rotation situation in Toronto as someone that rosters both Ponce AND Berrios in my 12 team dynasty league?

Justin Mason: I think both are in the rotation to start the year with Bieber behind and Berrios moves to a swing man role if Bieber comes back. Now that could work itself out with someone else getting hurt before the return so I wouldnt worry too much about it if you want to keep both.

Chris: Better bet this year – Goodman of Rockies or Merill on Padres?

Justin Mason: This is tough because I love both. I’ll take Goodman, but I literally drafted both yesterday

Ryno: I would be drafting Zach Cole incredibly aggressively if he showed any contact ability whatsoever. Any chance of him making an adjustment to get to a 30% K rate ala Judge in his first full season or is this just what he is?

Justin Mason: He would really need to improve the hit tool and aggressiveness within the zone. I just don’t see if happening at the MLB level.

Hmmmm: Yordan Alvarez did not work out last year, suffice to say. Should I go back to the well in a 14 teamer?

Justin Mason: really depends on the price. If I am getting him in the late third/early fourth, I think I am interested. You just have such a low floor because of the injury risk, but the ceiling is unreal if he is healthy.

Lars: Is there any way to predict hitters that (seemingly randomly) wake up one offseason morning and say, “I think I’m going to try to steal 30 bases” like Soto and Naylor last year?

Justin Mason: watch the spring training numbers for players and teams. They are very indicative for stolen base numbers in season. Pay even more attention to these teams with new managers/front offices like the Giants, Angels, and Twins. That’s often where we can strike gold.

Shandy Koufax: Fun idea I had for a custom league: Couples Baseball.
split into an upper and lower division to accommodate difference experience levels. General outline is one partner in each division, mostly intra-division games, and then top 4 couples by combined record have to combine their rosters into a playoff roster. 4 couples play 2 rounds of playoffs to crown a champion.
nervous about how manual the playoff execution might become. Any suggestions or thoughts?

Justin Mason: I play in a couples fantasy football league where the men and women are in different leagues but in the playoffs any team can face any team and the top four from each league gets an entry. The women have beaten the men 4/5 years I believe including my wife winning two championships.

blackjack: Do you think Alex Freeland starts the year with the Dodgers?

Justin Mason: I think he does as a reserve.

blackjack: Do you think Dalton Rushing will get enough plate appearances to have any value?

Justin Mason: So I drafted him in the last round of my BARF league draft on Saturday. I am hoping he gets traded before opening day or something happens to Will Smith, but there has been talk about him playing the outfield some. I’ll drop him if there isnt a clear path to playing time and grab a second catcher if not.

Justin Mason: There is a lot of upside and I do think the Dodgers need to just move him with Will Smith in the org long term.

Dave: Schlitter or Misiorowski?

Justin Mason: Super close but I lean Schlittler

Jack Hughes Tooth: Cincinnati Reds rotation: what do you think happens with Burns and Lowder this year?

Justin Mason: Burns will start the year in the rotation and while I love his upside, I worry about him having had elbow issues last year and the violent delivery. Lowder probably is first man up and I really do like him, but I need to watch him pitch and be healthy before I take the dive on him.

blackjack: Is Robert Hassell any good?

Justin Mason: I dont think he is

Insert Witty Name Here: What’s your process for making your own projections?

Justin Mason: So I start with something similar to three year averages and then I go player by player adjusting every fantasy stat. It takes a long time and as always I am behind. If you want a version of it, take your favorite projection system and then adjust the plate appearances on a program like Smart Fantasy Baseball.

Lord Thunder: Does Ronel Blanco pitch for Houston this season?

Justin Mason: I think he will but I have no idea what to expect from him

Justin Mason: hes probably not back until late season

Joe: Is Logan Henderson gonna nab a rotation spot? Him or Baz for a back end guy?

Justin Mason: I think Henderson will but there is a chance he starts in AAA. I lean Baz

Lord Thunder: If you were the Dodgers, would you make Ohtani a one-way player (hitter) because of the injury risk from pitching?

Justin Mason: I would

Steve the Pirate: I am really liking Jeff McNeil as a deep sleeper with dual eligibility for a 20 HR .270 type season either in the middle or top of the A’s underrated lineup. Am I crazy?

Justin Mason: I think the 20 homers is pretty ambitious but I could see 15

IamMe: What are your thoughts on Reid Detmers? Dude has nasty stuff, just hasn’t put it together as an SP. Decent as MRP last year, going back to SP this year. Quick tip: never keep your chap stick next to your glue stick

Justin Mason: I wish they would make him a closer. He was so good as a reliever and would love to just see him be elite out of the pen.

Justin Mason: Also, Point Awarded!

blackjack: Will Robby Snelling start the year in the Marlins rotation?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he does, but he and Thomas White could be up early.

Lord Thunder: Will Tatis Jr. ever have another season that matches his first 3?

Justin Mason: Will he? Probably, but I wouldnt bet on it for 2026.

Joe: Haven’t heard much on Bubic this year. Is he someone you like late in the draft?

Justin Mason: yeah, I think he is worth gambling in shallower formats, but the injury risk makes him difficult to gamble on in deeper ones. So in a 10 or 12 team league, I would draft him and hope he is healthy.

Phil: Which players do you see getting significantly undervalued in drafts and why do you think that is?

Justin Mason: Andrew Vaughn and Max Muncy. I think they are being overlooked because of their smaller samples last season, but when on the field, they were great and are going way too late.

Jeff: Is the market sleeping on Marcell Ozuna? He had a hip issue last year that he played through and hampered him. He’s a year removed from back-to-back seasons with good average and 39+ HRs. Old man with dirty laundry discount?

Justin Mason: I think they probably are and it has to do what you mentioned but also his late signing to the Pirates. Very good value right now.

Keith: Is this Jack Leiter’s year?

Justin Mason: I think it is. He has great skills, is in a good park. I think he takes a nice step forward.

Ryno: Where does Michael Kopech sign? Do we care?

Justin Mason: I am honestly really surprised he hasnt yet. I wonder if something is wrong in the medicals.

Lord Thunder: Last year was incredible. Would you take the over or under at 40 HRs for Raleigh this season?

Justin Mason: Give me the under, but just barely

Dave W: If Coby Mayo starts off solid while Westburg is out, what do you think happens when he returns?

Justin Mason: I am not banking on Westburg returning so I am grabbing as many shares of Mayo as I can

Crickets: Is there any(!!!) anything on Spenser Strider? Total news black out and coincidentally broken radar gun. I cannot even find random fans videos or sightings. Has Strider only participated in super secret work outs? Does Strider really exist?

Justin Mason: Let’s be a little patient. It’s only Feb 23. We will get news soon. Also, Point Awarded!

Tanner bell: How much do you reference your work with tanner bells tool during drafts, vs just using it for prep before hand?

Justin Mason: I use it a lot more than I mention it, but it is such a great tool for such a good price.

Justin Mason: Point awarded!

Shoehorn Bill: Is there certain positions that strike you as less deep this year where you are prioritizing top tier guys

Justin Mason: Outfield for sure, then third base. Outfield is deep but there are massive drop offs in talent. While second base is thin at the top there are a lot of options I like later which is not true at third base.

Steve the Pirate: In a 12 team, 27 player roster league with 3OF starting slots and daily lineups, are you comfortable punting on that 3rd OF slot until the likes of Carpenter, Caglianone, Abreu knowing you can plug them in and out?

Justin Mason: yes, I absolutely would do that

Justin Mason: 3 OF leagues are a different beast than 5

Joey: Hi Justin! I’m in a 12-Team keeper league (home league) with OBP instead of avg. Each year, keepers go up by 2-rounds. I can only keep two of the following: Ohtani (hitter) 2nd rd, Neto (14th rd), James Wood (21st rd). Gut reaction is “cheap Wood” (possible team name) and Ohtani over Neto, especially in an OBP format… but 14th rd Neto would be so nice. This would be my last year being able to keep Ohtani. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Ohtani and Neto for me

Joe: Who is your favorite pick this year? Like, if you got this guy at his price you’d quit smoking or something.

Justin Mason: Andrew Vaughn is my dude this year at his price. I keep snagging him a round or two early.

Justin Mason: Point awarded!

Mike: NL only keeper and can keep 2 of the 3. Hunter Goodman, William Contreras and Michael Busch

Justin Mason: if it’s a two catcher league, give me the catchers

Jack Hughes Tooth: They have new homes this year.  Would you want any part of Adolis Garcia or Jesus Sanchez in an NL or AL only 10 team league.  I lean Jesus but he is only a strong side platoon

Justin Mason: I would. I think they are both going to enjoy their new homes and are undervalued in the market. If I chose just one it is Garcia since I don’t think he will platoon while Sanchez will

daro: with Westburg out my other options at the moment are: Brooks Lee, Miguel Vargas, Bohm and Rengifo. Who would you pick?

Justin Mason: Bohm

Dr. Funk: In a 14 team h2h dynasty league with OBP and H is a 3B tandem of Lewis/Durbin good enough or should I look to upgrade (Saurez owner has him on the block).  Might also need Durbin at 2B (assuming he gets eligibility) with Albies there.  In full win now mode.

Justin Mason: I think it’s good enough especially if you have a backup in case Lewis gets hurt again. I am a big Lewis backer

Dr. Funk: 15 team roto keeper league with QS instead of W and where prices are greatly inflated at draft due to under market keeper values.  Rank these keeper pitching options, I could keep up to 4 of them:  $35 Sale, $30 Fried, $18 Pivetta, $10 Luzardo, Eovaldi $10, R. Suarez $6

Justin Mason: Sael, Fried, Luzardo, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Suarez

Jack Hughes Tooth: Is 2024-2025 what Brandon Pfaadt is?

Justin Mason: I think so at this point until he can figure out a way to keep the ball in the yard.

Guest: Thoughts on how the TB closer situation plays out? True committee or does someone like Jax take over the Fairbanks role?

Justin Mason: I think this is Jax’s job

Insert Witty Name Here: How much hype do you believe in outside hitting facilities – specifically Jordan Walker and Alec Bohm?

Justin Mason: It’s something to mark down and watch during spring. If we see real changes at the plate then we buy. If they look like the guy they always have, we move on.

AL Central Casting: 12 tm, H2H league with OPS instead of AVG. I can keep JRam and/or Tucker for $47 each ($260 auction cap) – but is either worth it? There is generally a lot of inflation at the top end, but this is too much right?

Justin Mason: I think it’s close for J-Ram, but it is pretty expensive. It depends on my other options.

h2H Keeper: Hi Justin — in a 12 team H2H points league, I get one keeper. Do i keep Ohtani and sacrifice a first round pick or Nick Kurtz and sacrifice a pick in the 20s? I lean Kurtz but am I overthinking it? My thinking is, I would rather have Kurtz + Skubal/Tatis/Julio etc., but what do you think?

Justin Mason: Keep Ohtani

Hazmat Corntail: 14t dynasty H2H (standard 5, BB, TB)…do you have any hope for Josh Jung? My final roster spot for hitters may come down to him, Josh Lowe, or Jonathan Long

Justin Mason: I think Jung is a good player when he is on the field and I would take him over these guys.

Doc Estes: Joey Wentz, with news of a possible six-man rotation, is he fantasy relevant?

Justin Mason: I dont think he is

Nazor: Mike Elias took “full responsibility” for the Orioles poor performance yet a few weeks later fired the manager. That is someone I wouldn’t want to work for, especially since it appears that it was his decision, not ownership’s, not to improve the starting pitching staff during the ’24 off-season. Do you think the wrong guy got fired?

Justin Mason: My preseason bold prediction last year was the Orioles miss the playoffs and they fire Elias. Yes, I do think they fired the wrong guy.

Guest: I’m entering Year 3 of the Colt Keith Experience. Feels a little bit like waiting for the Great Pumpkin. Please tell me this is *the* year.

Justin Mason: THIS IS THE YEAR!

Justin Mason: *Charlie Brown kicks and misses the football*

Justin Mason: I am still a believer and am going back to the well

Justin Mason: Point Awarded!

Leon: NL-only 5×5 10 team: Need hitting, already have great pitching. Would you trade Luzardo $11 for Otto Lopez $9?

Justin Mason: Luzardo

Guest: Dynasty FYPD 12 Teams 6X6 with OPS and QS as the extra categories. Should I take Eli Wilits or Jojo Parker. I’m very concerned about willits lack of power but he is younger than jojo any thoughts?

Justin Mason: Give me Jojo

Johnny5Alive: What’s the strategy on 1 cat guys in a roto. I’ve got Victor Scott who can really help the SB category but hurt everywhere else and trying to place appropriate value in an an NL only.

Justin Mason: I believe guys like this are draft fixers, not people you should plan for because one injury or demotion and you cant find their stats on the wire easily. You should be aiming not to draft them and only do so if your team construction warrants it

Colton: Colt Keith made changes! Watch how much better his rhythm is! Now is not the time to jump off people, now is the time to double down on your future winnings!

Justin Mason: I BELIEVE!

Insert Witty Name Here: If Justin and Paul had to pitch and hit against each other from 60’6” with wooden bats, who would be the better hitter?

Justin Mason: oh, I would be for sure. Paul has too big of a strikezone.

Justin Mason: Point Awarded!

Guest: Looks like Troy Melton won’t have a rotation spot to start the season, do you think he’ll be sent to AAA on standby or will he get some bullpen IP at the MLB level to start the year?

Justin Mason: I think he starts in the minors because they want him as a starter. A guy to stash in deeper leagues or if you have minors spots or put him on your watch list if you dont.

Joey: I’m doing my first ever DC 50. Any late dart throws you recommend? I feel like my team blows 😅

Justin Mason: Look for PAs and Innings! I think everyone always loads up on injury guys or prospects, but the ones that pay dividends are guys like Perdomo last year that were guaranteed playing time and took a step forward. In DCs volume is the most important thing.

Tony: Do you think SF will steal more with Vitello as manager? I have no background of what his style was at Tennessee, but being a young manager makes me think he’ll has his baserunners be aggressive.

Justin Mason: They were not super aggressive in Tennessee from what I can tell so I wouldnt think so. Keep an eye on spring training stats though because that will tell us something.

Justin Mason: That is my time!

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!