Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 21st, 2025

Justin Mason: Chat will begin when we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Jeff!: My TGFBI satellite draft is underway. Just wanted to say thank you for organizing it again this season!

Justin Mason: Thank you! I love TGFBI satellite leagues. For those that don’t know, the satellites give you a chance to get into next year’s TGFBI. You can still sign up at https://tgfbi.com/satellite-leagues/

Joe14: Please rank : King, Kirby, Miller, Burnes ?   12T Mixed Roto

Justin Mason: Burnes, Kirby, King, Miller

Parker Fox: If, and big if, Royce Lewis stays healthy for 120+ games, what stat line is he putting up?

Justin Mason: I have him projected for 500 PAs and 27 HR and 6 SBs with a .250 avg.

Justin Mason: The sky is the limit though

Joe14: A Follow up; Please Rank : Fried, Ober, Bibee, H.Brown, Miller ? 12T Mixed Roto

Justin Mason: Miller, Ober, Bibee, Fried, Brown

Guest: Home league keeper question
5×5 standard roto, 1 Catcher, 2 UT, NO BENCH, unlimited IL
$260 budget, Keepers $$ stay the same, can be kept for up to three consecutive seasons.
I plan to keep:
$1 Tyler Glasnow
$1 Shane McLanahan
$10 Spencer Strider
$4 Devin Williams
$9 Julio Rodriguez

Pick (only) two more:
$5 Jasson Dominguez
$10 Lawrence Butler
$1 Brice Turang
$11 Jackson Chourio
$10 Josh Lowe
$10 Jordan Westburg

Justin Mason: Butler and Chourio

KevBurg: In a 5×5 H2H OBP league. Looking at later 3B options, who do you like better between Muncy and Parades as cheaper options at the position?

Justin Mason: It’s close but I think I lean Paredes for health reasons

Justin Mason: and age

Adam: If Kepler stays healthy, are you high on him? I don’t have a good feeling for some reason

Justin Mason: I love Kepler, but I worry he gets platooned and there isn’t much room for him to move up the lineup.

Tweezer: Hi Justin, 8-team NFBC roster keeper with OBP and QS instead of BA and W. Keep three out of the following: L. Butler $1, Glasnow $6, GRod $1, Robert Jr. $1, H. Brown $1, Yelich $9. Thank you!

Justin Mason: Butler, Glasnow, Robert

Parker Fox: Zack Gelof– am I taking crazy pills, or everyone just looking at “20/20” potential and ignoring his terrible underlying metrics? (34% K, 43 percentile bat speed, 0.199 XBA, .347 xslug, etc etc etc)

Justin Mason: I don’t think you are. He is a terrible in zone hitter which is something I avoid. Playing time should be locked in Sac, but he could easily hit .180 and end up in the minors

Joe14: With those 8 SP’s I asked about , is Yamamoto ranked above all of them ?

Justin Mason: yes

KevBurg: Who are one or two of your favorite mid-round and late-round relivers?

Justin Mason: Orion Kerkering. Electric stuff and I do not trust Romano to stay healthy. Could be a top 5 closer if he gets the job

Justin Mason: Jason Adam too because I think Suarez gets moved

Parker Fox: Cardinals closer situation: A) how likely is Helsley to be traded this season, and B) if he is, who is the most likely replacement?

Justin Mason: I think it’s about an 80% chance. I think it would be between JoJo Romero and Ryan Fernandez with Fernandez being the more interesting name of the two

Adam: Kepler and general Phillies platoon follow up – I assume there will be a platoon in both CF and LF. How do you see this shaking out? A mix of Rojas/Marsh?

Justin Mason: I think Marsh and Kepler on the strong side with Sosa and Rojas on the weak side

StrosFan27: OBP league – Jake Burger or Isaac Paredes?

Justin Mason: Burger

Chin Music: I pick 6th in my draft. Likely to come down to J. Ramirez, Elly or Soto. Do you have a preference there?
League has OBP/SLG as separate categories, no AVG.

Justin Mason: J-Ram is my #3 player this season. I would take him all day

Justin Mason: I think the OBP make Soto in the conversation but it is still J-Ram

IVThoughts: What do you make of Ceddanne Rafaela this year?

Justin Mason: Boston loves him and gave him the contract so he will play, but the in-zone contact skills are bad, the O-Swing is terrible. This is a boom bust player that could destroy your average

KevBurg: Who do you see having the edge in the Diamondbacks bullpen, Puk, Martinez, or do we see another team with a committee?

Justin Mason: This feels like a committee but if one emerges I would say Puk

SP Curious: In a 15-team draft and hold, when is the first (non-Ohtani) pitcher typically popped? Picks 5-10? 11-20? Later?

Justin Mason: usually 11-20 but that will be moving up as we get to March

Willie Stargell: Is there a player or a type of player that you just can’t quit even though you know you should?

Justin Mason: Guys who make a lot of in-zone contact are my thing. I want good contact skills from a hitter.

Justin Mason: though I don’t think I should

Justin Mason: so maybe that doesn’t answer the question

Justin Mason: Gavin Lux is a guy I just can’t seem to quit even though I should

Mark: Is Julio a no-doubt keeper for $30 in a 14 team OBP mixed league? The projections look great but for some reason I’ve got this sense of “it could also all fall apart”

Justin Mason: yes, this is a no-brainer

Bobby Digital: 15tm mixed roto, $260 salary cap league (OBP and SOLDS). Keep 8. Trying to decide on my last two keepers. What say you? Toglia ($1), Hodge ($1), Rafaela ($3), B Francis ($5), Lugo ($6), Schwarber ($33). Position doesn’t matter, I have a good foundation. Thanks, Justin!

Justin Mason: Schwarber in OBP

Don’tJudgeMe: 10 team Auction H2H Category Yahoo League with OBP and QS instead of AVG and W. I have an opportunity to turn Judge (my keeper last year who I can no longer keep) into auction $$ (around $30-$40) or use him in a trade for Vladito or Skenes. Would you rather have the extra $ to potentially reacquire Judge or acquire the first round talent at no cost?

Justin Mason: get the first round talent

Justin Mason: If I could get Vlad or Skenes here, I would

Parker Fox: San Diego LHP Kyle Hart 하트– while close to a comedian’s name, is he a serious 5th starter in that rotation? Only projected lefty in the rotation (how much does that matter?). Won the KBO’s equivalent of Cy Young award, added a sweeper. Worth a spec in draft-and-holds?

Justin Mason: He is definitely worth a spec in D&H. I think he will be in the rotation to start. I want to watch him pitch this spring, but in a D&H, it’s a pretty easy spec

Daniel: What might a breakout season look like for Michael Toglia, and how likely do you think it is that it happens?

Justin Mason: A dream season for Toglia is probably 30 Hr/10 SBs with like a .250 avg. I wouldn’t come close to projecting it, but he should play everyday in Colorado and there is good power in the bat.

KevBurg: Do you think Bednar returns to 2023 form or should we expect more of last year?

Justin Mason: I think Bednar rebounds

Justin Mason: I also think we will know during spring whether he is back to being himself

–: I’m keeping Jarren Duran. Obviously, I’m targeting Jhoan Duran in the draft. Given the lack of fantasy value for Ezequiel, what other backup options should I target to keep make sure my team is hungry like the wolf?

Justin Mason: Hunter Goodman in Colorado because of the catcher eligibility, Justin Turner in Chicago for the early part of the season if Hoerner/Shaw aren’t ready, Jerar Encarncion in SF, Christian Encarncion-Strand in Cin if he is healthy

Willie Stargell: Mine is the opposite – love too many swing and miss guys, i.e Morel, Gorman, Francisco Alvarez – any hope for any of them or me?

Justin Mason: I avoid those guys like the plague. Alvarez made a swing change that I want to see in spring training, but Morel may be the worst in-zone hitter in baseball. However, Morel hitting in the spring training park all year and a cheap draft price makes him a cheap gamble this year. I think Gorman is who he is at this point

Bobby Digital: Really need saves in my Ottoneu league. Can you rank these four? Thanks! Fairbanks, Megill, Romano, Yates.

Justin Mason: Megill, Fairbanks, Romano, Yates

A.: Where would you rank Jeff Hoffman among closers this year? He seems to be locked in Toronto, but still seams a relative value by ADP.

Justin Mason: I have him outside my top 15 because of the medicals that voided two potential deals this offseason. If you do draft him, make sure you get the handcuff

Quarantino Martinez: Yankees signing James Harden?

Justin Mason: LMAO! Point awarded

Jeff!: Too late to expect an Arenado trade at this point? If it does happen, anyone you like to become fantasy relevant in STL?

Justin Mason: I think it is much less likely now that Arenado is traded. Still some goodness in STL. I like Winn, Burleson, Donovan, Nootbaar. Love Contreras as a catcher eligible player that won’t be catching. Walker and Herrera are really intriguing and well priced. Their pitching? Not so much

Lance/Vlad Ito: Is Vlad gonna get dealt at the deadline? Asking as an AL Only owner worried about losing him to the NL…

Justin Mason: If the Jays fall out of it, yes

Bobby Digital: Thoughts on Arrighetti? Auction values are super low on him (like -$20 low), but I’m all in (have him as an < $5 keeper in a couple of leagues). Like the K upside and at 25 he’s got runway to improve. What are the projections capturing that I’m not considering?

Justin Mason: Made big control improvements in the second half command was still shaky but I think he can improve there too. Really good stuff. I like him as a gamble

Bobby Digital: 10tm keeper auction, $260 budget, OBP. $10 Abrams or $52 Soto? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Abrams

A.: There’s a lot of speculation around Woo’s elbow, but he finished last year strong. How do you evaluate him for this season?

Justin Mason: I hope I am wrong because I love watching him pitch, but I worry that elbow is going to explode. He isn’t someone I am drafting

AJ: Appreciate your work, Justin! Who are your favorite under the radar relievers to target that could reach double digit saves? I find myself targeting Joyce, Kerkering, Hodge, and Estrada.

Justin Mason: Kerkering, Ryan Fernandez, Jason Adam, Scott Barlow, Jesus Tinoco and Ben Joyce (after Kenley is traded in the second half)

AJ: I almost always wait on 2B and SS in drafts. Who are your top 2/3 undervalued targets between those positions that have upside?

Justin Mason: Colt Keith, Maikel Garcia, Kristian Campbell, Otto lopez, Brandon Lowe

Justin Mason: I know you said 2-3 but I love all those guys

I Sing of Arms and of Troubles: In a 3-man bench only league, is it crazy to burn a spot on a guy like Jobe if he doesn’t start in the rotation?

Justin Mason: I think he does so I will gamble on him

AJ: Thoughts on Toglia this year? Am I crazy for thinking that he can go 30 homers 850OPS if he puts it all together, with the room for more if he becomes an every day player?

Justin Mason: See above response, but I do

Quarantino Martinez: AL Only, 10 team, $260, OBP, league, just for this year – can you give me a top two? Royce Lewis $1, Gerrit Cole $15, Mason Miller $12, Vladito $35, Langford $29. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Lewis and Guereero

Parker Fox: Jordan Lawlar– you and Sporer talking about him on the pod, seemed like you think he can still carve our a role. Can you expand on that?

Justin Mason: The talent is there and ready. Perdomo is a great guy for the DBacks, but he is better suited for a util role where he can play everywhere. Lawlar is the future and the DBacks are poised to win now

Guest: 12 team Roto Keeper League.  Pick my last keeper: Schwarber (5th), Seiya Suzuki (9th), Ian Happ (13th), Taylor Ward (19th), Shane Baz (20th), or Jeff Springs (22nd).

Justin Mason: Suzuki

Guest: I want to like Lawrence Butler… But I look at his upcoming season and can’t stop seeing 2024 Michael Harris-esque regression. Convince me I’m wrong and that Butler will not turn into a pumpkin this season.

Justin Mason: He made massive improvements in the z-contact from 80% to 85% from the first to the second half. Power, speed and an improved hit tool has me believing. The new park will help too

Rickey: are Bo Naylor or Patrick Bailey decent C2’s? Which do you prefer?

Justin Mason: depends on if you want upside or safety

Justin Mason: naylor has a ton of upside, but struggles with in-zone contact. Bailey should improve some with the average, but power and speed is not going to good. He is more of a real life player than fantasy one

Joe: 6 keeper league with 5 other legit/elite keepers: choice between Alcantara at 14th round or Jobe at 25th? Both are kind of picks for the future, where either could bring back good value this year. Think about trying to find a different level player that could be kept?

Justin Mason: Jobe for me.

Grissom for the Mill: Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton the forgotten men in all this Devers/Bregman/Story/Campbell stuff. Is either going to get enough PT to be an AL Only piece? I had been hoping on Hamilton for cheap steals…

Justin Mason: I had hoped the same, but at this point i think Hamilton is just speed off of the bench and Grissom is the odd man out

Young Arms: Which peripheral arm do you like best for this season, given their situations, assuming none breaks camp? Jobe, Rocker, Festa, Zebby, Cantillo? Or are you waiting for a call-up?

Justin Mason: Jobe for sure. Festa next. Then Rocker

Jack: How much breakout potential do you see in Soderstrom? Some underlying data is encouraging.

Justin Mason: There was good in-zone contact numbers and he has a ton of power in a better park to hit in. I think there is some especially because he should play.

A.: Any indication if the nationals are/are not going to give Luis Garcia more of a full time role after his breakout last year?

Justin Mason: If they don’t play him everyday we march on Washington

mario: FGPTS (wOBA) league, buying a Conforto rebound in LA?

Lord Thunder: Projection for Conforto this year in LA? Will he play more than 120 games if he stays healthy?

Justin Mason: I have conforto for 22 hr with a 254. It could be much more if he stays healthy. This is a great spot for him

Jack: Is it time to aggressively shop Gausman in a keep forever dynasty? Concerned the wheels could really come off.

Justin Mason: I think it is. Maybe the wheels don’t fall off completely this year but the age is showing

RosieBoi: What do you think the chances are Zebby Matthews makes the rotation out of spring?

Justin Mason: Pretty low unless there is an injury or a trade. He may actually need two

Bobby Digital: Last q from me (thanks for doing this!) – I think DeGrom is being way overdrafted, but have him for a measly $9 in Ottoneu. That’s a no-brainer, right? Unless someone offers a crazy package? (They are not).

Justin Mason: yeah, that is way too good of a price

Guest: For dynasty league first year draft, can you rank the following pitchers (Luzardo, Herz, Soriano, Springs, Clay Holmes, Grant Holmes)…

Justin Mason: Springs, Herz, Luzardo, Clay, Grant, Soriano

mario: are you drafting any Luis Robert shares this year?

Justin Mason: probably not. between the injuries and the degradation in Z-Contact, I just don’t want that level of risk

Justin Mason: plus the white sox

RosieBoi: How much higher would you move Cal Raleigh in an OPB league as opposed to an avg league? in an overall rankings

Justin Mason: He definitely moves up. Probably my catcher 2 or 3

Benie51fan: Speaking of Michael Harris, do you view him as rising or falling this year?

Justin Mason: I think he is who he is at this point. Plays well when he is on the field but he doesn’t volume because of injuries and being put at the bottom of the lineup when he struggles. Until he becomes more patient at the plate, I worry the inconsistency will remain.

Lord Thunder: Noelvi Marte was a relatively highly regarded prospect and had a good 200 at-bat stretch in 2023. Last year obviously was a disaster. Is there any hope long-term?

Justin Mason: Long term? Sure, but there are just too many pieces in Cincy for him to get a shot early on.

RosieBoi: You buying the jacked Jacob Young hype? if he was able to convince you he could get to double digit homers consistently, how many spots would he move up in your rankings?

Justin Mason: I was already higher on Young than the market. I don’t even need the homers but I will take any extra I get. For me I just want him to get on base and steal me a whole bunch of bags.

AJ: Thoughts on Grayson Rodriguez. I feel like he is due for a breakout given his age and metrics (great Ks, improving walk rate, etc.), and could return incredible value.

Justin Mason: Just needs to stay on the mound and he will be great

Guest: Your ‘punt AVG’ strategy went so well for me last year, I’m doing it again. Give me ALL the Kyle Schwarber – who else?

Justin Mason: So I look for guys that have years of fluctuation in their batting average and are coming off of a bad season. Like Jeimer Candalrio and Matt Olson are good examples this year. I will also sort the leaderboard by xBA and the see who had the biggest gaps between their average and xBA.

Yuniesky Betancourt: Which two current MLB managers would be funniest to see square off in a benches-clearing brawl?

Justin Mason: Give me a battle between two older guys that look like they were tough SOBs in their youth. Bruce Bochy vs Rob Thompson

Justin Mason: Baldelli vs Derek Shelton would be fun too

Justin Mason: let’s make a March Madness tourney

Justin Mason: new content idea

BZBC: (CONT.) Which 5 would you keep?

• Yordan Alvarez OF – HOU
• Julio Rodriguez OF – SEA
• Fernando Tatis Jr. OF – SD
• Edwin Diaz RP – NYM
• Devin Williams RP – NYY
• Matt Olson 1B – ATL
• Josh Hader RP – HOU
• Ryan Walker RP – SF
• Jordan Westburg 2B,3B – BAL
• Grayson Rodriguez SP – BAL
• Willy Adames SS – SF

Justin Mason: Jrod, Tatis, Williams, Yordan, Olson

Justin Mason: That is all the time I have. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!