Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 19th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Gerard E.: Could you share 1-2 names of SPs to target at the back end of drafts?

Justin Mason: Good time to remind people to make sure you send the league size because the back end of a 10 team league is much different than the back end of a 15.

Justin Mason: I have been drafting a lot of guys like Braxton Garrett and Eduardo rodriguez in shallow leagues. In deeper formats, Steven Matz, Nick Martinez, Ross Stripling, Luis Medina and Keaton Winn

Maris9: Some, not everyone, down on Est Ruiz. Can he improve stats from rookie season? Could happen. Anyone who can steal 75 bags worth a start in a category league. What you say?

Justin Mason: The hard part is he is such a zero in the other categories. He definitely could improve but he is still on the A’s and he has below average power. The problem with drafting one category players is if something happens to him there is no way to fin 60-70 SBs on the wire.

Jason: Snell to the Yankees, Giants, Angels, or other?

Justin Mason: Still think he ends up in NY

Maris9: Yamamoto or Webb in points league?

Justin Mason: I think in 10 or 12 team leagues I go for the upside of Yamamoto and in deeper formats, I lean Webb because of the volume.

SamskiNYC: What did Riley Greene do to you?

Justin Mason: He didn’t become a fantasy stud just a decent real life player.

Eric: In a dynasty, 5 OF league, is Tommy Pham worth a speculative buy-low before he signs with a team?  Or should we wait to see what his new lineup situation is before making a move?  Team is in need of speed.

Justin Mason: Probably should wait and see. There is a chance he ends up without a team

Skivvy: Ignoring win-now versus win-later, should I trade a $2 Coby Mayo for a $8 Vinny P in Ottoneu 4×4 (R, HR, OBP, SLG)?

Justin Mason: I think I might just hold Mayo in a 4×4 with those categories, though I love Vinnie P

Guest: Any rumblings about likely landing spot for Tommy Pham?

Justin Mason: Is Tommy in the chat today?

Maris9: Working on keeper list — AL only. Put these arms in order: Detmers, Javier, Crawford, Munoz. Can only keep 2.

Justin Mason: Munoz, Javier, Detmers, Crawford

new year, same me: 10-team OPS/QS league: Can keep 3 players up to 3 years, who ya taking? Abrams (13th rd), Hoerner (13th), Ragans (26th), Langford (26th), R. Lewis (26th), Gelof (26th). In win now mode, is Abrams, Langford, Lewis the right call?

Justin Mason: Yeah, I am rolling with those three

DH: Hey Justin! I play in a dynasty league where we have a handful of “team control” years for prospects at low salaries which start once the player debuts. How would you balance adding top prospects against securing current value studs?

Justin Mason: For me it always depends on where my team is. If I am shooting to win this year, then I commit to doing whatever it takes to win. If I am still rebuilding, I go after the prospects.

Pat: Am I crazy for keeping Acuña (RF) at $74 of $260 in a 12 team 5×5 H2H with 12 hitters, 9 Ps, 9 bench? 360 drafted. Keeping Carroll (LF/CF/RF)  NJones (1B/LF/RF) McLain (2B/SS) all for $10 which means $10 Skubals, Bobby Millers and Eurys all get thrown back. Would you keep an arm over one of the bats?

Justin Mason: 74 is a lot to spend on one player, but depending on the league’s inflation, it might be worth it for Acuna. I would definitely throw back Jones for either Skubal or Miller but I am down on him.

Toss up: 12 team H2H keeper league with QS not wins.  Debating Kirby vs. Bobby Miller as last round keeper.  Miller would be a late round keeper while Kirby is ADP cost (so high round). Go with upside/cheapness of Miller, or is Kirby already everything we would hope Miller to become?

Justin Mason: I think after last season, you have to go Kirby, but I do think that Miller can take a massive step this year.

B. Oner: Nelson Velazquez hit 17 dongs in 53 games last season. Do you think people are sleeping on him, at least in obp leagues?

Justin Mason: I think that last year was some small sample magic. Exit velo is fine, but makes below league average contact in the zone and I don’t know that he will keep full playing time especially if they want him to mostly DH

Eric: I have zero top-end pitchers in a dynasty, but several intriguing young arms.  My bats should be able to keep me in playoff contention.  Who of this group would you keep, sell, or throw back?  Pepiot, Bryce Miller, Abbott, Montgomery, Bello, Silseth, Ashby, Olson, Logan Allen, Canning, Paddack.  Likely looking to keep 6.

Eric: 14 team league for both of my Q’s

Justin Mason: I think I would keep Pepiot, Bryce Miller, Montgomery, Bello, Logan Allen and Abbott

Hector: 10 team NL only 5×5 with OBP instead of average. 9 hitters and 9 pitchers active and 7 reserve all purchased at auction with $260 budget. Keep 4 forever at salary shown. Which 4?

Hector: $3 J Walker, $28 Harper, $12 Yelich, $3 Envarcion-Strand, $8 O Cruz, $1 Hoskins, $8 Iglesais?  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Walker, Harper, Yelich, Iglesias

Greg A: how’s TGFBI coming along? Are you close to finalizing the individual leagues?

Justin Mason: I am tracking down the last people to sign up and then leagues will be randomized in the next few days hopefully. There are always a few stragglers.

Brad: Favorite bat at current ADP?

Justin Mason: Dalton Varsho

Toe The Rubber: 14 team, mixed league. Thoughts on Maikel Garcia? Potential upside?

Justin Mason: Yeah, I grabbed my first share of Garcia in the BARF draft on Saturday and there was a collective groan by everyone else. I think there is a lot of upside especially if he can move up the lineup.

Justin is the People’s Choice: Middle Infielder for a 12T Roto, this is around pick 150 or a little later:  Gelof,J.Holliday, N.Gorman, E.Julien, E.Tovar ?

Justin Mason: In a 12, give me the upside on Holliday or Gorman

Fields: What do you think of Spencer Jones?

Justin Mason: Big power and reportedly made a really successful swing change. Could be a big riser on prospect lists this year

Amish Man: TJ Friedl: step back, step in place, or step forward?

Justin Mason: Step in place

Hey Arnold: any chance there is fantasy life for former top prospects Gavin Lux and Brendan Rodgers?

Justin Mason: I have never been a believer in Rodgers so no on that one, but I still believe in Lux’s potential and I think he finally is an every day player this season.

All Blues: 11 team AL only roto 5×5 with $260 budget. Would you freeze $26 Arozarena or $3 Velazquez and use the extra dollars to buy another good hitter. Thanks and really appreciate the chats.

Justin Mason: Arozarena

Guest: 18 team dynasty league. Should I accept a 1st (14th) and 2nd (6th) for Spencer Jones? What do you think Jones ETA is?

Justin Mason: I think I would hold Jones

Uncle Charlie: Who’s more likely to break out this year? Gabe Moreno or Maikel Garcia?

Justin Mason: Garcia. I think Moreno has a nice floor, but if one breaks out, it’s garcia

Maris9: What’s your projection on Bryan DeLa Cruz. NL only. Trying to figure — keep or drop. Got him cheap.

Justin Mason: Probably like 17 HR/3 SBs.  .270 avg

Guest: Hi Justin,

Justin Mason: Hi!

Mr.Keeper: Glasnow ($13) or Ragans ($10) as a keep – both cheap keep options – I’m leaning Ragans because of dual eligibility (RP/SP – 5 of each in our league for starting lineup), but I also love Glasnow & Dodgers freight train of course – thx

Justin Mason: I think I would lean Glasnow just because on a per inning basis he is just elite, but I can understand keeping Ragans if it is a deeper league.

gbs42: In an 8-team, NL-only keeper league, I can keep Buehler for $8 for this season and next. However, given his delay to start the year, I might be able to get him in auction for that amount or less for three seasons.  Keep or throw back?

Justin Mason: Throw back if you think you can win now.

Justin Mason: Or trade

Kep: How would you rank the following guys in a league that counts both saves and holds: Ginkel, Merryweather, Sborz, McArthur? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Ginkel, Mcrthur, Merryweather, Sborz

Red Bird: what is your draft strategy for pick 6 of 8 team league H2H points..

Justin Mason: So in a league that shallow, always go for upside. Run your point format through the auction calculator to make sure you see where the money tells you to go.

Play Ball!: 5 offensive keeps going into 2024 – Harper ($19), Semien ($16), Elly ($9), Witt Jr ($11), & C.Carroll ($26) – I feel extremely confident going into the season – concentrate on pitching above all else, or really try to hammer home more offense?

Justin Mason: Concentrate on pitching for sure.

J Oetter: 16 tm 6×6 H2H Categories. Traded my PCA and Buehler for his Bryan Abreu and Cris Sánchez. Thoughts?

Justin Mason: Don’t like it TBH

Gloria: % chance Bradish will have Tommy John Surgery?

Justin Mason: 90%

Fields: Spencer Jones, Brooks Lee, Druw Jones, Colton Cowser and Leody Taveras. Please rank, I keep 3

Justin Mason: Jones, Cowser, Lee, Jones

Fields: Thank you Justin

Justin Mason: You’re welcome!

Toss upx2: 12 Team H2H keeper, keep N. Marte with a 9-round discount over Josh Jung given the Jung injury news?

Justin Mason: Yeah, I don’t mind that.

Jose Salas: Why do people think my brother Ethan is going to be so good?  It’s not like he dominated low A… even I did that before I flamed out and fooled the industry

Justin Mason: He’s 17 and knocking on the door of the Majors. He is already a very good catcher behind the dish which is what usually holds guys up.

On the Farm: How quickly for Skenes & Crews to arrive on the MLB scene?

Justin Mason: I think Skenes is up early. Crews could be up in the summer.

Pitching Frenzy: Pick 2 – P.Lopez, Glasnow, Ragans, & Duran – all comparable in price – 5 RP – 5 SP – 10-team league – thx

Justin Mason: Lopez and Galsnow

Birdland: What are we expecting from Pasquantino this year?  There’s a pretty big gap in value between “has a full year of hitting like 2022” and “gets some extra rest while hitting like 2023”

Justin Mason: I am really high on Vinnie P. Obviously health is a concern, but he seems healthy right now. I think a 25-30 homer season with a .275 average could be coming.

Ben: Is ONeill Cruz flying somewhat under the radar coming off injury and with all the hype of Elly?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is flying under the radar. Some people love the upside and others are scared of the low floor.

Niles: Prefer Cristopher Sanchez or Christian Javier this season?

Justin Mason: Javier

Michael W: Justin, Very excited to be here. Long time listener and first time caller. When you are at the end of a season, how do you handle having a player in one league where you need to win but needing them to do poorly in another league so you win there too? Do you start to play favorites with teams or leagues?

Justin Mason: You have to compartmentalize. Don’t think about the fact that you have him in another league. Look at every team individually and make your best moves.

Beau: Nick Castellanos or Jorge Soler in 10 team 5×5 mixed league with OBP instead of AVG?

Justin Mason: Castellanos

AL Central Casting: Hi Justin, thanks for chatting. I love using an auction calculator for my salary cap league with keepers, but wondering if you have any insight into why various sites’ calculators might differ, even when player’s projections are relatively the same. For example, here on FG, Jose Ramirez is at $29.40 using my league’s settings, but BP’s The AX has him at $43.40. Steamer actually has a better projection for him, too! Which one should I trust?

Justin Mason: So every calculator is weighted a bit different. I use Tanner Bell’s Smart Fantasy Baseball’s software because you can actually adjust it based on your league’s history which I think it really beneficial.

Pat: Do you ever punt saves in H2H leagues?

Justin Mason: All the time.

AL Central Casting: Please rank the following for 2024 and over the next three years: Bailey Ober, Michael King, Tanner Bibee. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Bibee, Ober, King

Guest: In my AL-only Scoresheet league, I’m down to my final cut.  Should I keep McCormick or Taylor Ward?

Justin Mason: McCormick

Guest: 12 team points league. Need a 5th keeper, currently keeping Freeman, Yordan, Seager, Wheeler. Last keeper: Logan Webb or Bregman?

Justin Mason: Webb

Rendon: I read about Rendon’s comments on baseball as a job and not being a top priority today.   He has said this before, in previous years.  Why is it getting run now?

Justin Mason: I don’t know. Honestly, there are a lot of guys that feel this way and I don’t blame them. Of course many of us would love to play baseball for millions of dollars but at the same time, this is their jobs and not every loves what the do for a living.

Birdland: What happened to Patrick Sandoval last year?  Was a hidden gem in 2022, then walks and strikeouts both went the wrong way.  I don’t see obvious red flags in velocity, pitch mix, babip, GB%…

Justin Mason: I wonder if there was an injury that he didn’t discuss. He has had back issues before that threw off his mechanics and when that happens you can really struggle with control

Frank: Joined a 10-team Yahoo keeper league, 6×6 with QS and OPS. My team is in pretty bad shape, but I have Chourio and Grayson Rodriguez as my crown jewels. Was offered Gausman, Altuve and Jett Williams for Grayson by one person, then Andrew Painter, Kyle Harrison and the No. 6 overall pick in our draft. We get 7 MLB hitters keepers, 5 MLB pitchers keepers and 7 prospects keepers. The guy I took over for only had Chourio and Mervis as prospects, so I’m in pretty bad shape there. Does one trade offer seem obvious?

Justin Mason: I am not doing either of those deals. In a 10-team league, keep the studs/future studs and build through the wire.

Toss upx3: Duran vs. Hader H2H 12-teamer

Justin Mason: Hader

Keep Quandary: Hey Justin, I’m in a 10-tm points league (QSs are extra).  I’m seriously debating keeping Triston McKenzie as 13th rounder.  Is that dumb?

Justin Mason: I wouldn’t do that

Smuckles: 10 Team dynasty league. How would you rate these pitchers: Keller, G Williams, Pfaadt, Taj, Pepiot

Justin Mason: Keller, Williams, Pfaddt, Pepiot, Taj

kurt: langford or keith

Justin Mason: Langford

Corey: Hey Justin! Keeper question. 5×5 head to head. Keeping Strider and Carroll already. Keep Bo Bichette for free or Harper with an 8th?

Justin Mason: Bichette for free

John: I’ve you comment on podcasts that OF is deep.  It’s seems there is a large drop off after top tier guys.  I guess the depth is that there is lots of mediocrity to choose from.  I’m in a 14 teamer for context.

Justin Mason: Yeah, I don’t think there is a particularly shallow position there, but there are massive drop off in each position between tiers. Outfield isn’t worse in that regard either. However, there is definitely a massive difference between OF1-10 and OF11-20

Colton: #SuwinskiSZN

Justin Mason: I might be starting to come on board for this one.

Johan Santana: How much is too much for Acuna? Avg yahoo auction price of $72. My personal limit is $80. Based on auction calculator, he seems to be worth it. Flip side is, you can get 2 bats ranked 10-20 for the same price

Justin Mason: I have a really hard time spending that amount on one player. Your season is pretty over if he goes down.

kurt: langford or keith in league w no penalty for making MLB OD roster

Justin Mason: Langford

Birdland: What is Alek Manoah in 2024?
a) solidly above average starter
b) overall average at best because sometimes he’s great and sometimes he’s going to randomly give up 8 runs on 6 walks and I’ll never guess which starts to bench him for
c) mostly in the minors

Justin Mason: B

A good problem: So i’ve got Eury, Tarik, Bibee, and Bobby Miller at the same price. I can keep one as 11th rounder, one as 9th rounder, and one as a 7th rounder in a shallow points league that also counts QS.  Who would you keep and at which prices? Thanks!

Justin Mason: That is tough. I would keep Eury in the seventh, Tairk in the 9th and Miller in the 11th.

Justin Mason: I am through all of my questions. Send some more

B. Oner: 12 team first year 5×5 h2h dynasty. I went HAM on offense and scraped together a pitching staff. We only have 23 man active rosters (10 offensive Starters, 7 pitching, as well as 10 minor league slots for minor leaguers only). Is it insane to punt saves+holds to start the season while I stream my starters long enough to find some consistency? The plan is to find relieversater in the season. Am I overthinking this?

Justin Mason: I don’t think you are over thinking this. I like this approach.

Justin Mason: While I wait for questions, don’t forget that you can still sign up for TGFBI satellites at TGFBI.com and podapalooza is this weekend streaming on my youtube and twitch!

Birdland: Which do you worry about more in terms of not repeating last year’s value – hot young guy who just had his breakout, or established star who’s past his peak?

Justin Mason: For me it is always about their underlying numbers. I tend to believe in older guys because their numbers are larger samples and tend to be more steady, but I care more about what the numbers tell me

John: What positions do you think are best to reach for the upper elite guys?

Justin Mason: Third base and starting pitching

Captain Awesome: NFBC Draft Champions … Tristan Beck worth a shot in Rd47?  Will he be in the SF rotation this year?  What’s his outlook ?

Justin Mason: Seems like he is their fifth starter unless they sign someone late. I think in round 47 that is a decent gamble

Corey: Hey Justin! Follow up on keeping Bichette. I’m looking at the 12th pick in the first round after keepers. Will snag either Albies or Olson/Harper with the first of my two picks. With the other I’m looking at LouBob, Arozarena, Michael Harris, or Adolis Garcia. How would you rank them?

Justin Mason: Give me Harper all day here.

Justin Mason: with Albies

Dodgers Blue: Rather take a chance on Reese Olson or Keaton Winn this year only?

Justin Mason: Winn

A good problem: Do you think Yoshida is keepable in a points league that counts putouts and assists at 0.25 points each?  I would need him in the OF and sounds like he’ll be dh’ing most of the time.

Justin Mason: Yeah, he is not going to play the field much so no

Donald: Our league is making adjustments to its categories, R, HR, RBIs, OPS, & NSB — any advice based on this set-up?  Specific guys (late) to target?

Justin Mason: So when you have different categories, run your favorite projection system through a calculator and see who pops

Dodgers Blue: You buying Gelof or Julien at 2b?

Justin Mason: Julien at the discount.

Donald: Our league is making adjustments to its categories, QS, K, ERA, WHIP, NSVH — any advice based on this set-up?  Specific guys to target late?

Justin Mason: See above answer

Dodgers Blue: Do you own any stakes in Curtis Mead this year?

Justin Mason: Only in dynasty. I worry his defense keeps him down for a while.

Keepers: Do you aggregate projection systems or tend to rely on one when deciding keepers or ranks? If one, which one?

Justin Mason: So I do my own projections, but if I didn’t I would use ATC for pitching and The BATX for hitting

Jim: Grayson, Bobby Miller, Skubal

Jim: please rank for this season

Justin Mason: Skubal, Grayson, Miller but it is really close.

Dodgers Blue: Marco Luciano going to hold that SF short stop job all year?

Justin Mason: Probably not but they are going to give him a chance to

Birdland: How many Orioles batters reach 600 PA?  Love the lineup, but kinda worried that everyone outside of Adley/Gunnar is gonna sit 15-20% of the time

Justin Mason: I think Adley, Gunnar, Santander, Mullins all could. Maybe even Holliday if he is up Day 1.

Donald: When choosing between 2 keepers (12-team, keep 10, 30-man rosters), ignoring other options would you rather have the better overall player or the guy that delivers the most value?

(Ex.  Gausman in Round 2 or Sonny Gray in Rd 12?)

Justin Mason: The guy that delivers the most value

Bryce: Do you think Harper will be the first baseman for the same tier as Freeman and Olsen in 2024? Healthy, he may be the 1st of them.

Justin Mason: I do. I think if healthy, he could easily be the top 1B

kurt: auction price for schaunelin ba vs obp league

Justin Mason: Run it through the auction calculator for your league size https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/auction-calculator

Points: Michael Harris would cost me an 8th rounder while kwan is a 5th.  Shallowish points league.  Kwan has been 8th ranked OF in 2022 and 2023 in our league for reference.

Justin Mason: This is why it is important to run points leagues  through software. Go Kwan if this is what it tells you.

Dodgers Blue: What do you make of all these guys – like Bryce Miller – working on adding a split this off season?  Does it slightly elevate on of them in your rankings?

Justin Mason: I was already higher on Miller than a lot of people. Love to see he is adding a split this season.

Dodgers Blue: Zach Neto or Anthony Volpe?  AVG, OBP, SBs, HRs and Runs all categories.  Better option?

Justin Mason: Volpe

Mark: Christian Walker a keeper at $11 in an 12 team OBP league? Alternatives would be Jarren Duran $4, Brendan Donovan $7, or Eovaldi $11

Justin Mason: Yes

Mike: 30 team dynasty league with FA bidding and $150 salary cap… How do you rate these SP’s considering price point: Maeda ($20), Lugo ($18), Hicks ($14), Mahle ($9)

Justin Mason: Lugo, Maeda, Hicks, Mahle

Dodgers Blue: Follow up on Bryce Miller – you like ahead of Pfaadt?  And…how are you shaking out the Guardian staff – Williams, Allen, Triston….

Justin Mason: I prefer Miller to Pfaadt, but I do like both.

Justin Mason: I am drafting a lot of Bibee this year, but I am starting to come around on Allen at this price. I like Williams’ upside but he has control and command issues. McKenzie is a decent gamble in a shallow league

Dan: Do you have any ideas on the probability of Langford making an opening day roster? I think if he breaks the camp, he can easily get within 100 adp.

Justin Mason: I think there is a 60/40 chance he does.

Justin Mason: HE will be up early even if he doesn’t though.

Dave: 12-team NL only.  Who are you keeping between $4 Arcia & $5 Berti as the last keeper? Or would you keep both over $2 Vientos

Justin Mason: Arcia

Dodgers Blue: Royals keep adding bullpen arms.  In a combo Saves/Holds league, who am I to take stock in?

Justin Mason: Will Smith and McArthur

Guest: rank in order of 2024 plate appearances: Holliday, Langford, Chourio, Caminero

Justin Mason: Holliday, Landford, Chourio, Caminero

Pete: In a 15 team standard roto where are you comfortable taking your 1st starter and how many starters do you generally take through 1st 10 RDs?

Justin Mason: I am comfortable taking my first early, even first round depending on where I am drafting from. I usually like to have 3-4 starters through 10 rounds.

Guest: do you play any H2H leagues, and if so do you still shoot for a balanced roster or do you ever zag on the draft/auction and try something weird?

Justin Mason: I play in a few. I don’t worry about balance very often there especially if it is a 10 or 12 team league

Mike: 30 team dynasty league with FA bidding and $150 salary cap… How do you rate these 1B considering price point: Bellinger ($38), Hoskins ($24), Candelario ($16), Justin Turner ($13), Jose Abreu ($11)

Justin Mason: Bellinger, Hoskins, Candelario, Abreu, Turner

Dodgers Blue: Thanks for the chat, Justin.  Always appreciate you….

Justin Mason: Thank you!

Justin Mason: Alright, that is all the questions for today. Thank you for chatting along with me! Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well! Don’t forget podapallooza this weekend