Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 10th, 2025

Justin Mason: Chat will being at the top of the hour. Chat will begin at the top of the hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

RAGBRAI: How does Lux’s value change now. Is he worth $9 in an 11 team NL only 5×5?

Justin Mason: Lux is moving to a better park but worse offense. His job probably isn’t as in jeopardy as is it was in LA, but there is still a roster crunch in Cincy if everyone is healthy. I think he is worth $9 in NL Only but I am a little biased as I have always loved him.

RAGBRAI: We are thinking of going from Saves to Saves + Holds, with S=1 point and H=1/2 point. Thoughts on the two and how it impacts drafting?

Justin Mason: It will make the volume closers more important. I think it is a decent format and I play in a few. Got to push up those 30+ save closers

Mets Fans: Who is the player who is fighting to win the 3rd base position in the New York Mets and what can happen to McNeil if he will be benched just like what is said about Starling Marte

Justin Mason: I think Vientos will be the third baseman now that Alonso is back with Winkler and Marte sharing time at DH.

Mochi: Was listening to your appearance on R&B in the car with the wife and had to explain to her that 12 leagues really isn’t that many… that was an interesting conversation.  Thanks for all the work you do and was really interesting to hear about your other job.  Do you like Patrick Bailey or Keibert Ruiz more this year in terms of fantasy in a points league?

Justin Mason: Glad I could help with the wife and thank you!

Justin Mason: I tend to lean Ruiz in a points league over Bailey.

Ben: Who are a few SPs that you’re targeting towards the bottom of your rotation, based on current ADP? (Thinking past SP60)

Justin Mason: Zach Eflin, Luis Gil, Spencer Arrighetti, Bowden FRancis, Clarke Schmidt, Jeffrey Springs, Jose Berrios, Michael Wacha, David Festa

Jeremy: Lawrence Butler in 2025 – stud, valuable contributor, risk of disappointment? Does that change in an OBP league?

Justin Mason: Stud and it doesn’t change in OBP

OpinaUnFanatico: Why haven’t they been able to sign players who can be on teams and haven’t been able to sign, what’s happening with Bregman and the others? Will many sign today?

Justin Mason: I think Bregman is trying to get a long term deal and is hoping a team get nervous or suffers an injury. He will sign but probably not for the deal he wants.

RankingTanking: Ober v. Bibee v. Pablo Lopez. Who’s the best AL Central arm of the three in 2025?

Justin Mason: Lopez., but this is really close and I love all three

Tim: Which Oriole do you expect to most exceed expectations this year?

Justin Mason: Eflin. I still believe he can be a top 25-30 pitcher

Tim: “We can’t replace Corbin Burnes. We have to recreate him in the aggregate.” With normal expected growth from the younger guys and average bounce-backs for guys like Adley and Mountcastle, any reason the Orioles couldn’t be better than they were last year with just the additions they’ve already made?

Justin Mason: They can if young guys take leaps but there is no way they replace Burnes with what is on the roster

Joe14: Wyatt Langford or Junior Caminero ?

12 Team Mixed Roto

Justin Mason: Langford

Old and Arthritic: In a 17 team keeper league, which two players would you keep and why?   Kyle Tucker for 30, Luis Garcia (Nationals) for 6, Wille Castro for 7, or Xavier Edwards for 7?

Justin Mason: Tucker and Garcia. Got to keep the stud in a deep league with that price. Garcia is a perfect accumulator for that deep of a league

Jesse: Rank the following relievers in SVH: The Yankees (Devin Williams, Luke Weaver), the Dodgers (Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates), Mason Miller, Emmanuel Clase, Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, Griffin Jax.

Justin Mason: Clase, Williams, Miller, Hader, Diaz, Kirby, Scott, Jax

Joe14: M.King , G.Kirby , B.Snell, Bryce Miller? Please rank. 12 Team Mixed Roto. Thanks

Justin Mason: Kirby, King, Miller, Snell

Honkus Wagner: how would you rank these prospects in dynasty: Eldridge, Kurtz, Walcott, Campbell, De Vries, Made

Justin Mason: To be honest, I don’t know enough about all of these guys to give a good response.

Guest: Justin – Most projections systems are calling for Brandon Pfaadt to knock off a full run from his 2024 ERA (which was already down a full run from his 2023 ERA).  Are you buying into this?

Justin Mason: I am. Made command improvements last season that just was reflected in the overall ERA. I have been a fan for a few years now. I am expecting this to be the one where it comes together.

Yuniesky Betancourt: Over/under 130 innings for Roki Sasaki this season?

Justin Mason: Over but barely

Yuniesky Betancourt: Does anyone reach 60 SB this season?

Justin Mason: yes

Yuniesky Betancourt: What was Kansas City doing last night not sending Cole Ragans out there in an elimination game?

Justin Mason: This made me laugh pretty hard lol. Point awarded

Tim: Who would you expect to get the second most saves in the Orioles bullpen this year behind Bautista – Kittredge, Dominguez, Soto, Cano – someone else?

Justin Mason: Dominguez

Dodgers Blue: If the Cards find themselves falling out of contention and move Helsley to the highest bidder, which guy in the current ‘pen seems most likely for speculative saves?

Justin Mason: I really like Ryan Fernandez there

High5Ghost: In a 12 team mixed are there any positions you are filling sooner rather than later?

Justin Mason: Nope, I am taking best value at most picks especially early.

Jesse: I tend to treat catcher like kicker in my 12-team, one-catcher keeper league. Who is your favorite towards the back end of startable there?

Justin Mason: Langeliers, Realmuto, Stephenson, Goodman.

Justin Mason: This is the right strategy in a one catcher league too.

Dodgers Blue: After signing Scherzer, was Yariel Rodriguez moved to your DND list?  Or knowing injuries are (unfortunately) a likely outcome of any rotation, is he still on your end of draft radar as the first guy called upon in Toronto?

Justin Mason: In a deep league he is still on my radar. In shallow formats, not so much

Mike Oxlong: What would value higher in keeper leagues ($260 cap)? A $50 first rounder like Soto or Tucker…or a $0 debuting rookie like Shaw or Roman?

Justin Mason: $0 Shaw or Roman for me

Dodgers Blue: Already somewhat lacking on offense, do the Guardians now even have the starting pitching NOT to finish in 4th place in the AL Central this year?

Justin Mason: Of course, but I think this will be a dogfight of a division and I may pick them to be fourth.

Tim: For keepers, do you generally prefer to keep position players, pitchers, or a mix? Does it depend on the options? We can keep 6.

Justin Mason: Depends on the options and price but I usually give an edge to hitters.

Guest: pick 2 of 4 in a 15 team draft champions: Jake McCarthy, Nolan Arenado, Jung Hoo Lee 이정후, Tyler Fitzgerald

Justin Mason: McCarthy and Arenado

Jack D: Good morning Justin! Fellow west-coaster here (may or may not be in LA…), in a 10 team, 5×5 H2H league with QS and OPS added. I generally punt steals. I am picking 3/18/23 and am considering going Mookie (2B/SS/OF) in Yahoo, to pair with two more hitters at 18/23.

Jack D: May have hit send before I finished my question, but amongst Devers, Riley, Machado, how do you lean? And does Seager compare?

Justin Mason: Give me Riley and Seager

High5Ghost: What is Justin Mason’s mindset going into 2025 watching his teams play in-division with the Dodgers & Eagles…?

Justin Mason: It’s been rough. I do love that my Commanders are good for the first time in along while though, but the Dodgers being a super team hurts myu soul

Trolley Dodger: What’s your outlook for Michael Conforto assuming he’s a strong side platoon regular?  I was very surprised when the Dodgers added him.

Justin Mason: I think he will be pretty good on a per plate appearances basis. Just needs to stay healthy.

roger dorn: in a recent episode of satb, you asked for any recommendations for guests for podapalooza (or otherwise). throwing out John Laghezza. he’s a fun listen and knows his stuff!

Justin Mason: Love John! will get him on soon

Tim: What’s a realistic expected jump for Mountcastle HR totals with Walltimore moved in?

Justin Mason: low 20s

Keeper Sleeper: Hi Justin, can you rank these guys as my final keeper? Morel, McMahon, and Soderstrom. Thank you.

Justin Mason: McMahon

RAGBRAI: How do you see Alcantara’s season playing out. If he pitches well, traded before the deadline, at the deadline or finishes the season in Miami?

Justin Mason: Finishes in Miami. I don’t think they move him unless they are wow’d by an offer

High5Ghost: Where are you with Bo Bichette?

Justin Mason: I just don’t know what he is anymore so I am avoiding.

roger dorn: for hitter BABIP, are there any contributing factors you look at to assess variance? things like player speed, swing decision metrics, etc.? or are deviations often just chalked up to randomness/luck?

Justin Mason: Speed, how hard they hit the ball, groundball rate, contact skills

roger dorn: any surprises in your player projections yet? ie. “player B has a way better outlook than i expected before i crunched the #s”

Justin Mason: Kerry Carpenter and Matt Wallner both were way higher in my ranks than I thought. I think Lindor should be going in the top 10.

Idiotic Failson: 12 team points 40 man roster auction keeper – does Moncada have any value, and if so how much are you willing to spend?

Justin Mason: probably not

High5Ghost: Can you rank Josh Lowe / Garrett Mitchell / JJ Bleday / Nolan Jones? Are you pursuing any of them in a 12 team mixed?

Justin Mason: Lowe, Bleday, Jones, Mitchell

roger dorn: are you measurably downgrading any LAD bullpen arms (phillips, yates, treinen, kopech inj) after the roberts comments that scott will get the bulk of chances to start? or are you taking that with a grain of salt?

Justin Mason: yeah, I am avoiding that situation if I can. I just don’t think one guy holds it down all year

Colton: In a connundrum, too many options. 10-team Roto 6×6 (add QS and OPS), keep 6 guys. Who do I keep from this list? Witt, Soto, Betts, Devers, Durran, Skenes, Skubal, Burnes, Ragans.

Justin Mason: Witt, Soto, Skenes, Skubal, Betts, Duran

Gary Sanchez: Do I get bumped up catcher rankings if indeed I am the primary DH versus lefties?  Roster worthy?

Justin Mason: Absolutely because a catcher eligible player playing regularly has a lot of value

OpinaUnFanatico: Which one do you prefer on the opening day of the New York Mets in center field Jose Siri or Luisangel Acuña? and why?

Justin Mason: Siri because his defense will give him the job most likely.

anrk4u2oioioi: Should we expect more from Maikel Garcia? The hard hit rate has been there and potential for steals. I still feel like there should be more production there. What say you?

Justin Mason: I agree. Makes a lot of contact, hits the ball hard, has speed. Won’t hit for a ton of power, but average and speed will be there.

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Would you keep a $26 Seager or $13 Peralta and $6 Wilyer? $150 keeper budget.  Seager

Justin Mason: Seager. I just think he is a stud when healthy

Dizzy: Is there any hope that Esteury Ruiz will again have fantasy value?

Justin Mason: maybe if he is  traded

Idiotic Failson: Does Kjerstad  and/or Mayo get over 500 plate appearances this year? The Orioles are annoying with the way they play their kids.

Justin Mason: I really hope Mayo does. Kjerstad needs a trade

Chet Stedman: 10-team, H2H pts, keep 7 + 1 player you drafted before they debuted as long as you want

Have Freeman / Acuna Duran Harris Roman* / Kirby Framber pretty well locked in

Any of these options stand out from the others as the final keeper, for you – Westburg, Adames, Rooker, Seiya, deGrom, Gausman? Thank!

ML: Do you play in any leagues that incorporate defense? I play in a GM simulator that uses DRS and won my 12 team AL only league running away with guys like Dalton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, and Andres Gimenez. I think it adds a lot of depth and makes more players viable.

Justin Mason: I don’t but I have been asked to before and it looks fun. I just can’t take on more leagues than I already have

harry doyle: in a deep mono league keeper format, would you gravitate towards reliable/durable SP types, or go for the helium SPs? what does your ideal “SP type” mix look like if say you are rostering 7 of them?

Justin Mason: I like the high floor guys more, but I usually like to grab one or two upside guys late if I can

Justin Mason: Volume wins in those leagues. I just did a piece for fantasy pros that was an NL only mock draft and I talk a lot about volume in my strategy for that format.

tortycraig: Forget if I’ve asked you this, so please ignore if it’s a repeat. Have to choose 4 of 5 to keep in a 10 team 5×5 roto w/ QS instead of wins: $10 C. Sale, $5 H. Greene, $5 Bryce Miller, $24 L. Gilbert, $9 Ober. Leaning dropping Gilbert for long-term salary outlook but could also drop one of the others. Thoughts?

Justin Mason: Miller, Ober, Sale, Gilbert for me

Justin Mason: out of questions! send more

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Any concerns with Yordan’s knee(s)?  Is now the time to trade him in a keeper for a haul?

Justin Mason: I am concerned about them especially long term. So if I could get a haul now, I would

harry doyle: what’s your outlook for sonny gray this year? and if you have time, the whole cardinals rotation?

Justin Mason: Really love Gray. Think he is an underrated guy. Fedde and Matz are interesting especially if Matz can stay healthy. Don’t love the rest of the MLB guys, More coming from the minor at some point, but this may be an ugly year

tortycraig: At a draft price of $10 in a $260 draft budget (5×5 OBP league), would you rather have Boagerts or Gimenez? Neither?

Justin Mason: Bogaerts

Chet Stedman: Posted but didn’t see an answer so resharing:

10-team, H2H pts, keep 7 + 1 player you drafted before they debuted as long as you want

Have Freeman / Acuna Duran Harris Roman* / Kirby Framber pretty well locked in

Any of these options stand out from the others as the final keeper, for you – Westburg, Adames, Rooker, Seiya, deGrom, Gausman? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Give me degrom here

Guest: Scoresheet NL league (12 teams) – decision for the last three of my 13 keepers comes down to Yelich, Garcia (WAS), Alvarez (NYM), Strider, Rodon. Thoughts?

Justin Mason: Depends on how long you can keep because if it is more than another year, I go strider

Justin Mason: otherwise, I would take Garcia

Guest: projections love Sale but also have him between 139-186 innings. how nervous that he doesn’t get to that range?

Justin Mason: I think he should be able to get back to 150+

Justin Mason: I am not super nervous about him for the most part

harry doyle: prospects week is here! what’s your favorite feature for that?

Justin Mason: I love the in-depth analysis that Eric and his team does. I live for the team-by-team outlooks.

pedro cerrano: any recommendations for cheap steals in the NL? hard to predict, I know, but anybody you think might “break out” in the steals category?

Justin Mason: Jacob Young has been a big target for me. Otto Lopez, TJ Friedl, Blake Perkins

tortycraig: $10 Jazz or $30 J-Ram, 5×5 OBP

Justin Mason: JRam

I’m a gonna win: How negatively do you feel the park downgrade will affect Naylor production?

Justin Mason: A little but I am not worried about it tremendously.

comish4lif: I am thinking of buying a sim league baseball game/tool and loading up my League’s 2024 Opening day rosters and simming a season.

Do you or the folks here have a recommendation?

Justin Mason: You should really ask Paul. That is more in hjis wheelhouse

Guest: OT: Patrick Mahomes last night made Jayden Daniels two weeks ago look like Patrick Mahomes two years ago!

Justin Mason: It was brutal to watch last night, but I loved it lol

Salty: Joseph Ortiz – Fonzie Alfonso ceiling and Ty Wiggington floor or am I being way too optimistic?

Justin Mason: Too optimistic on the ceiling lol. However, I like Joey Ortiz as a good accumulator with mutli-positional eligibility.

eddie harris: anybody in the sf giants prospect pool you really like or think is being overlooked?

Justin Mason: I don’t think it’s a great system to be honest, but I like Rayner Arias a lot

Mochi: Where does Pivetta land?

Justin Mason: Baltimore?

Curious: You a McClanahan fan for this year?

Justin Mason: I am not really. Just too high of a price to pay for someone coming off of TJ

Johnny5Alive: In an nl only league where top pitchers go crazy, $34 for a cease or glasnow too much? $270 cap

Justin Mason: I don’t think so, but I tend to not pay those prices.

Colton: Do you target any of the Dodgers relievers for a league that has saves and holds?

Justin Mason: I would target Kirby who should be the cheapest of the top options.

Johnny5Alive: Zimmerman seemed pretty high on grant Holmes. Worth $6 in an nl only?

Justin Mason: I would say 3-4

Guest: Who are some infield targets the Yankees could look to acquire later in the season when Lemahieu & Cabrera don’t work out

Justin Mason: Maybe Brandon Lowe, Thairo Estrada, or Arenado?

Mochi: Everyone knows about the Cedric Mullins call but do you have any others you’re extremely proud of?

Justin Mason: I was big on TJ Friedl in his breakout season. I was huge on Schewellenbach and Bibee before theres

Justin Mason: but I will always be the Mullins guy and I am good with that

Salty: Bigger gamble – drafting Morii in a FY draft or appearing on Maury?

Justin Mason: Appearing on Maury lol

Justin Mason: point awarded

Mochi: Other than your own, do you lean on any particular projection systems and do they differ for pitching vs hitting?

Justin Mason: I don’t lean on them, but when I am done, I compare mine to ATC and the BATX to see what the major differences are.

eddie harris: what are your top 3-5 favorite baseball movies? jimmy dugan is an all time character btw.

Justin Mason: Moneyball, Field of Dreams, Major League, 42, Angels in the Outfield

Justin Mason: There are so many good ones though

Justin Mason: I could do a top 25

Salty: We’ve had some luck/close calls with longshot calls on division winners the last two years (D-Backs ’23 and Royals last year).  Anyone you are looking at this year?  My first glance has me looking at the Reds and Pirates and taking a shot at one of them.

Justin Mason: I did a series on tiktok where I covered all the teams I thought could surprise this year. I covered the entire NL Central.

Curious: How do you feel about filing your Utility slot early in a snake draft?

Justin Mason: If the player is good enough, I don’t have an issue with it

Honorable Mention: The Natural

Justin Mason: definitely in the top 10!

comish4lif: Fave baseball movie: Eight Men Out
I think they do a great job of capturing the era.

Justin Mason: I’ve never seen this one. I need to sit down and watch it

dishonorable mention: major league 2

Justin Mason: lmao

Justin Mason: point awarded

Johnny5Alive: What’s your thoughts on an only league with too many guys on the same roster? It’s roto so I imagine it doesn’t matter much, but if you have like all 3 reds outfielders. Do you try to swap one of those?

Justin Mason: I don’t mind it as long as all are good values

Justin Mason: ok, that is all my questions and time is about up. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!