Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – December 4th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

PJ: Is Chourio starting on OD?

Justin Mason: I think there is a 50/50 chance he is up opening day. I know that there is a lot of thought that he should be up with the contract, but he will be turning 20 in March and only had 24 PAs in AAA

PJ: Better Q: If Chourio is starting on OD (as he should), where does he go in NFBC drafts?

Justin Mason: He is currently going pick 212 in DCs but I know someone said he went in the top 125 recently in a draft that is still going. I think he will be a top 100 pick soon and if we get word he is on the Opening Day roster than I think he moves into the top 75 maybe even top 50 come Main Event season.

SamskiNYC: So the Red Sox hired Andrew Bailey and now just poached the Twins pitching coordinator. Does this mean every Red Sox pitcher will now become a stud? Thanks for agreeing with me.

Justin Mason: I love Bailey. Definitely sad my Giants let him go. I think it definitely helps guys like Whitlock, Houck, and Bello as younger guys with interesting upside. Maybe this means Pivetta can keep the gains. No studs necessarily, but maybe they get a decent bump

SamskiNYC: Elly De La Cruz is currently being drafted 20th overall, ahead of Austin Riley and Rafael Devers. That’s bonkers, no?

Justin Mason: It is.

Arrrgh: The Pirates need SPs. But even contracts like Lynn’s and Gibson’a seem out of their price range. Who is a legit target for them in FA or trade?

Justin Mason: Maybe guys like Clevinger, Flaherty or Lorenzen

Matt W.: Where do you se Whitlock fitting in the Red Sox next season? Starter or reliever?

Justin Mason: I think he should be a starter but unless there is an injury, I think he ends up starting in the bullpen.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Kelenic appears to close the Braves’ hole at LF, so they have more or less their starting 9 locked. Someone tell AA he doesn’t need Shohei…pretty please…

Justin Mason: I think he takes over the Rosario role as a strong side platoon guy at the bottom of the roster.

The Governor: Do you think the Blue Jays will trade either Orelvis Martinez or Addison Barger and why?  These guys seem to fill needs if not this year then next.

Justin Mason: I think they might if they can get a big return. It sounds like they are players on Soto. Or maybe they want to get in on Cease or Burnes

BLT: Keep forever points league that favors HRs pick 3…Freeman, Turner, Bregman, Tatis, Adolis

Justin Mason: Freeman, Tatis, Turner

John: Hi Justin.  In a 12 team roto, pick one to keep: L. Webb 3rd round, o. Cruz (11th this year/1st round 2025), Casas late round or walker late round.  Other keepers are:J. Rodriguez, Betts, J Ramirez, Soto, Albies and Royce.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Give me Walker late.

Willie Stargell: Thanks for the chats!  Do you think Kelenic’s value is hurt or helped in a dynasty league by the trade to the Braves?

Justin Mason: I think this helps. Good park factors for lefties. Good development org. I like this for him.

Willie Stargell: Is there any league where using a late round flier on Lance Lynn would be advisable?

Justin Mason: A 15-team mixed. The start with the Dodgers and Padres so I might just skip him late in the draft and then pick him up if he’s dropped.

Willie Stargell: Do you think Luis Urias in Fenway is a viable sleeper, banging doubles off the Monster?

Justin Mason: He got traded to the Mariners so probably not.

Willie Stargell: Which MLB team should players who have Dylan Cease on their club root for him to be traded to for Fantasy purposes?  Dodgers?  Braves?  Orioles?  Giants? Thoughts?

Justin Mason: Pretty much any of those. Maybe not the Giants because the team isn’t going to be great. Would love to see him in Baltimore because of the park. Both the Braves and Dodgers would give him a ton of win potential. The Diamondbacks or Cubs would be really interesting as well.

Kate: I know this isn’t really your area, but do you by chance have any idea when Eric’s prospect lists will start rolling out?  Those are always such a great read.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: No idea, but I love them as well.

Guest: Who is your favorite pitcher and why is it Caleb Smith Cole Ragans

Justin Mason: It is Zac Gallen, but I am very interested in Ragans this year. I am actually a bit surprised at the price which is lower than I expected. He is going after Cease and Walker Buehler and I would take Ragans for this season (depending on where Cease ends up).

Willie Stargell: Thanks again!  Just threw a bunch in if you were short Qs.  Have a great chat!

Justin Mason: Thank you!

Willie Stargell: If you had to chose one former/current White Sox pitcher to bounce back from a below average season, who would it be?  Lynn, Sale, Rodon, Kopech, Giolito?  Is Reynaldo Lopez a viable option as a starting pitcher?

Justin Mason: I think I would bet on Rodon. His issue is all injury related. If healthy, he is a stud. I don’t think Lopez is or should be a starter. Keep him as a multi inning reliever.

Kate: One rookie you and Paul didn’t mention on the last pod was Tyler Black.  What are your thoughts on him going into 2024?  Seems like a sneaky play with a varied skillset and probably some good eligibility.  Can he be up soon enough to make an impact?

Justin Mason: He could be up at some point but I think he profiles more as a utility infielder as he isn’t good defensively any where and there isn’t much pop in the bat. There is a hole at third if the Brewers aren’t sold on Monasterio or if they trade Adames then Turang could move to SS with Black getting time at second. Not someone I am drafting unless I see a path to playing time.

Kate: How bad is this Waldichuk news from the other day?  Never heard of a Tenex procedure.  Is this just a matter of time before he need TJ?

Justin Mason: Does not sound good at all. He pretty much is off my board for now.

Too Many Mooks: Is Sean Murphy going to get more PAs this year? Or are the Braves just going to keep resting him this frequently?

Justin Mason: I don’t think there is any reason to expect him too as long as D’Arnaud is on the roster.

Sox: How would you rank the M’s big three in dynasty (Kirby, Castillo, Gilbert)?

Justin Mason: Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, but I love them all

Farhandrew Zaidman: Reports are Marco Gonzalez is getting flipped by the Braves. Who would some interesting fits be? LAD, SF, BOS, who else am I missing?

Justin Mason: Has to be a team willing to wait until 2025 for him. He probably isn’t pitching a ton of useful innings this year.

Kate: How do you feel about Giolito going into 2024?  Can he turn it around after two straight down years?

Justin Mason: Giolito is a guy that I am waiting to see where he signs. I have a hard time figuring out him and I think he needs an organization that can rework him a bit. If he lands in a good pitching org, I would buy back in.

Ben Bingham: Hey Justin, 1B is looking pretty deep (3B too). Would you consider waiting as late as Yandy/JNaylor/VinnieP around the 140s for a starting 1B? Is that the order you’d rank them?

Justin Mason: I think I would go Vinnie P, Naylor, Yandy

Ben Bingham: Elly went 10th overall in the DC I’m in.

Justin Mason: People love upside in DC and NFBC in general. That is too high for me.

thebearproofsuit: Someone tell Dipoto he needs Shohei…pretty please

Justin Mason: I think he knows lol

Farhandrew Zaidman: (Addison Barger is an OOTP24 stud for those of us who play)

Justin Mason: Adds him to my queue

PJ: It looks like the Braves are going to get Cease. Obviously a big upgrade for him for run support…bounceback coming or are you cautious?

Justin Mason: I am still pretty cautious, but that would be a good landing spot. Would prefer a better park personally.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Moze publicly and in the same interview 1) identified Tyler O’Neil as their 5th OF, and 2) indicated that they are open to moving him. What the hell kind of leverage management is that??

Justin Mason: Don’t love what they are doing in St. Louis, but please move O’Neill!

Ryan: Hey Justin. J.P. Crawford made a pretty big jump last year with a 134 wRC+ compared to his previous high 103. Does it stick in 2024?

Justin Mason: Feels pretty lucky without much in the way of backing it up. I should have my projections for SS done by the end of the week, but I will have him in lower than steamer does

Farhandrew Zaidman: Do you like Miguel Vargas or Michael Busch (or neither) more in 2024?

Justin Mason: Neither unless one is traded

Carter 93: If the Jays find a way to land Ohtani, there is a good chance that he hits between Bo and Vladdy, where would you draft the two in standard 15 team leagues?

Justin Mason: I think both Bo and Vladdy would be late second rounders for me. I also don’t think that Ohtani is going to Toronto

Duke: What are your thoughts on Pete Crow Armstrong in a very deep league? Is he the Cubs’ starting CF on opening day?

Justin Mason: I think he is interesting in leagues where you can stash because I don’t think he is on the Opening Day roster unless he has a great spring at the plate

Farhandrew Zaidman: Jung Ho Lee – basically Ha Song Kim with average CF defense instead of stellar MIF defense. Fair or foul?

Justin Mason: I honestly don’t know enough about him yet to answer.

seth: any ballparks making big dimension changes this offseason?

Justin Mason: I haven’t seen any announced yet

Farhandrew Zaidman: Settle a bet for me…do you think by the end of the year, Cal Quantrill’s overall stats will land in the “you’d be fine with this guy as your 4th or 5th starter” area?

Justin Mason: Absolutely not in Colorado

KC Pain: Anything to be optimistic about outside of Ragans and Witt?  Obviously Ohtani will sign in KC so we have that

Justin Mason: Saw some pretty good video that makes me think Vinnie P is healthy. I still love me some MJ Melendez. Michael Massey is a sleeper for me. Sal Perez is underrated. I actually like a lot of the offense. The pitching though…

KC Pain: Is Cal Raleigh going to get slept on again?

Justin Mason: I don’t think so. He is the 7th catcher in ADP right now

Willie Stargell: I have a bad feeling that Marco Gonzalez is going to wind up packaged with Vaughn Grissom and Owen Murphy for Dylan Cease.  Please tell me that the package Getz will get for Cease will be better

Justin Mason: That would be gross and sounds correct.

Willie Stargell: Elly could be huge source of stolen bases – over under 50 SBs?

Justin Mason: I’ll take the under but that is just because only three guys did that last year.

KC Pain: Tigers have anyone behind Skubal you would draft?

Justin Mason: Pitching wise, I would draft Maeda in shallow faab leagues and Manning and Olson in DCs.

KC Pain: Stott or Kim in dynasty?

Justin Mason: Kim

KC Pain: Any hope for Javy Baez?  Always been a hacker but even he seems to be aware something has to give

Justin Mason: I don’t think so.

Carter 93: booooooooooo…thanks for your response Justin!!

Justin Mason: You’re welcome?

PJ: wow you are down on yandy based on that ranking above, no?

Justin Mason: I think it is more higher on the other guys. I do have concerns about Yandy’s nagging injuries and if he can keep the launch angle up.

Johny5Alive: Maybe silly question. But what’s to stop an owner, let’s say Steve Cohen, from going to Ohtani, yes we’ll give you $500 plus million. Additionally, you’ll get a 5% stake in the Mets and my new casino venture.

Justin Mason: The other owners being pissed about that type of maneuver.

Ben Bingham: What are you expecting from Oneil Cruz?

Justin Mason: I don’t know what to expect from him. We know there is speed and power with a ton of K’s, but how much does he run coming off the injury? Is he even healthy? Do the K’s sap a lot of his usefulness?

Willie Stargell: Is Christopher Morel the next Jay Baez or is there hope for him?

Justin Mason: I think he is very Baez-esque. I am not a believer in that kind of profile personally.

Kate: What’s your read on Gavin Stone going into 2024?  Was last year an aberration or did AAA (though it was the PCL) and MLB hitters figure something out with him that the lower levels couldn’t expose?

RGM: Any Giant hitters going to be viable in 12 teamers with 3 OF no MI CI?

Justin Mason: Stone is a guy that needs a better fastball or better pitch to go with his change up. I just don’t think the stuff plays quite yet with the command.

Justin Mason: There is no Giants hitter worth drafting in a 12-teamer outside of maybe Estrada but without an MI, I don’t know that he makes a ton of sense for me.

Ben Bingham: What’s your favorite online draft format in terms of in-draft experience?

Justin Mason: So years ago I was a part of a number of leagues with slow auctions. They were amazing. It is organized chaos and I wish I still had the time to do them.

Willie Stargell: If you could choose (or were forced to choose) one young SP from the following group for a dynasty league, who would it be: Josiah Gray, Reese Olson, Brandon Pfaadt, Braxton Garrett or Bryan Woo?

Justin Mason: Garrett

KC Pain: Yainer Diaz legit?  Any reason to not believe?

Justin Mason: I am a believer for sure especially with the vote of confidence that the org has given him. That being said, It is a high price, but one that I have already paid in a draft.

c.a.b.: Thoughts on Nootbaar going into 2024?

Justin Mason: I really like Nootbaar especially because I think he will have solidified role at the top of the lineup this season. That being said, there is some platoon risk, but his price is pretty decent going inside the top 200.

Willie Stargell: Luis Campusano or Yainer Diaz?

Justin Mason: Diaz

Justin Mason: but I like Campusano’s price much better

Willie Stargell: Where does Hoskins wind up?  Cubs, Jays, any chance he winds up in Colorado?

Justin Mason: Cubs make a lot of sense. Seattle too. Depends on if he wants a multi year deal or a pillow contract but I could see SF or SD make a lot of sense too.

KC Pain: Quinn Priester had a rough go.  Seems he cant miss bats.  Does he profile as a #4-5 inning eater type?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is an innings eater type unless he fixes the control and command.

Jordan: Is the A”s management comprised of a bunch of ball babies?

Justin Mason: Yes

Justin Mason: I am out of questions and I have a few minutes left before I go record…

PJ: flaherty may bet on himself, but id be flabbergasted if it was with the pirates.

Justin Mason: Would be a good landing spot for him in a great park

RGM: Thoughts on Matt wallner and Jarren Duran? Low adp for prime batting position spot

Justin Mason: I think Duran is super interesting. Showed great skills and there is a little pop and a lot of speed. He is a target for me where he is going. Wallner is interesting but could be might be towards the bottom of the lineup in a platoon.

PJ: love the content with you & sporer. thanks man. No need to repost.

Justin Mason: Thank you!

Jordan: Why do some teams struggle with the Rule 5 Draft?

Justin Mason: It is a tricky proposition considering you have to roster those guys all year.

MrMet: Who is your favorite young pitcher to make a major breakout this season and why?

Justin Mason: Baz. His stuff is just so electric

seth: ty stephenson bounce back year? feels like he should be able to thrive without being the center of the offence

Justin Mason: I want to believe in him, especially in that park, he just hasn’t shown much.

KC Pain: any late season breakout (all small sample I know) you buying into?  Boyle, Gipson Sawyer, Sheehan, etc.?

Justin Mason: I think Sheehan is the most interesting out of that group because there is a path to the rotation. I like Gipson-Sawyer, but the Maeda signing blocks him.

Justin Mason: I have to go record with Paul. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!