Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – December 18th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Will start in a minute. Pod with Paul ran a little long. Need more questions!

Kyle: Paul is taking a long time with his SP rankings – perhaps if you make fun of him for it on the S&B podcast he will hurry up. Thanks for your service.

Justin Mason: He is working on them and they are massive! They should be coming early JAnuary

oops. posted to comments: OttoNeu H2H. $11 Jordan Walker for $28 Corbin Burnes. I am flustered. I REALLY prefer not to trade Jordan. My SP roster is adequate. I could fill Jordan OF spot with meh. Your opinion, pls.

Justin Mason: I think I lean Burnes if you are in win now mode.

Kyle: When are you going to start live drafting from your garage this year?

Justin Mason: It is slow draft season right now, but I want to do an auction that I will stream in January

Smelly Socks: Do the Dodgers let Evan Phillips run with the closing job this year or keep it a bit of a committee?

Justin Mason: I wonder if they are the ones that land Hader. Seems like he would fit in nice on the super team they are building

Guest: Which Nat do you see making a leap in 2024, Gore or Gray?

Justin Mason: Gore for me.

Smelly Socks: Do you think Ashcraft can still tap into more upside in 2024 or we should just accept that he’s not very good?

Justin Mason: I think he can but that park will always be a problem.

Jamie: Keeper league. All super cheap… which two you holding?:  Casas, J holiday, j chourio. O’Neill Cruz, Grayson Rodriquez?

Justin Mason: Wow that is tough. I think I go Grayson and Holliday but Chourio is super tempting over the pitcher

Lotar: What does Marcus Semien have to do to get more love in the fantasy community? Great lineup context, consistent performance, and premium position.  Am I taking crazy pills?  His ADP in NFBC in December is 28, behind guys like Lindor, Robert Jr, and Elly De La Cruz.  Make it make sense, Justin.

Justin Mason: I think people have a hard time continuing to project him for 700 plate appearances which would obviously hurt him since he is a super accumulator. I am going to continue to project him for that until we see him fail but I am with you for sure

Vic: Will Machado be under drafted this year? Meaning a round or two later than he should go?

Justin Mason: There are so many questions about his health that I don’t think he is being underdrafted right now. If we get some good health reports in spring he will rise for sure

Vic: Who might be this year’s Matt McClain? Someone is known, but doesn’t get drafted in a 525 player draft, but is a 4th or 5th round pick the following year.

Justin Mason: Maybe one of the top tier prospects that come up earlier than expected. James Wood? Dylan Crews? Jace Jung?

DC: Any reason for 2024 optimism on Vladdy Jr? (other than the fact it can’t get much worse)

Justin Mason: Close to 700 plate appearances with a better average if he gets some better BABIP luck. I understand why people are down on him but I think 2023 was the floor not the new normal for Vladdy

Kyle: Who is worth more WAR by the end of the 2024 season – Luis Severino or Decoy, Ohtani’s dog?

Justin Mason: I think Severino is a sneaky buy low. Great park change and he has been a top 25 pitcher before. We will know pretty quickly if he is bad again, so I would take him at the back end of my pitching staff.

Justin Mason: Decoy is an 80-Grade name though

Martin: Bigger fantasy impact on their new team, Jarred Kelenic or Tyler O’Neill?

Justin Mason: O’Neill. I think he is playing everyday

Kate: Anthony Rizzo was obviously awful last year, but I recall hearing someone state that his downturn last year corresponded almost exactly with when he got that concussion (which the Yankees for some reason let him play through).  Assuming health (a big if when it comes to concussions), is this an easy bounceback?

Justin Mason: If healthy, I think he is. However, concussions are really tricky and I need to see him in spring training before I can buy in.

Vic: Back in 2021, players like Witt Jr and J-Rod were drafted in the 18th round in my league. Is this about where Wyatt Langford should go in 2024?

Justin Mason: Yeah, that seems about right. At that price, I am definitely in too. I think he is a stuf

Justin Mason: stud

Dodgers Blue: Twins starting rotation is currently constructed with fly ball prone right-handers.  Worth looking at signing a lefty GB type pitcher that won’t cost much and may be willing to sign on a one-year deal (thinking Martin Perez, Alex Wood, Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진….).

Justin Mason: Alex Wood would be a great fit for them. Ryu is probably more their speed though

Kyle: Are you a believer in Nolan Jones this year? Anticipate drafting him at all? He ended with such a great finish but 30% K rate is very high.

Justin Mason: I can’t imagine I take him this year at his price. I get why people are but a guy with awful plate skills going at pick 55 seems just too risky

seth: Can Paredes keep sneaking HRs down the line, or does that ugly EV sneak up on him?

Justin Mason: I think it probably catches up to him at least a little bit, but I don’t think he regresses all the way. He still is going to play every day and he is really good at pulling at home.

Dodgers Blue: I’m surprised I’m not hearing more about Michael Taylor.  Royals and Twins seem like they’d be good fits – two places he’s had some recent luck.  Maybe Padres as a replacement for Grisham – although they are already righty-heavy. Thoughts?

Justin Mason: I think he will definitely find a job somewhere. Need some of the bigger names to land so he can find the best possible fit. Twins make a lot of sense. Padres as well. Maybe even the Cubs?

Guest: How do you value Mets 3B candidates at this point? Is either Baty or Vientos any kind of sleeper since they both should get some play with Mauricio no longer an option?

Justin Mason: I love Baty and hope the Mets will give him a shot. Former top prospect that is a bit underrated considering there is a clear path for time at 3B. Vientos is an all or nothing power guy that really isn’t super interesting to me

Dodgers Blue: What is your opinion on Jordan Westburg?  Will he be a long-term staple at 2B in the Orioles loaded lineup?  He’s put up some big numbers in the minors…..

Justin Mason: I think Westburg profiles more as an accumulator. The problem is the Orioles have a ton of bats and I don’t know if Westburg will get the kind of playing time he needs to produce fantasy relevant numbers. Would love to see him get traded somewhere where he can play everyday.

Dodgers Blue: True or False?  Three years from now we will (still?) regard Matt McLain as the best player in the Red’s current youth movement……

Justin Mason: False

Justin Mason: Still very good, but not the best if Elly or CES can be what I think they can.

Guest: FG projections both think Vlad Jr. will have a wRC+ of 144, with 4+ WAR- both are numbers he’s only reached once in 5 years. I have no comment about that, I’m just fascinated by it.

Justin Mason: Projections have always loved him. I do too, so I kind of get it.

Houzer: Tatis vs Soto vs Yordan. Are they close enough in ranks that it’s just personal choice?

Justin Mason: I think it is personal choice. I think Tatis, Soto, Yordan is my personal order

Justin Mason: I can make the argument for any of them in any order though

Houzer: Who says no – Tigers send Matt Manning to the Padres for Jake Cronenworth and Merrill Kelly 켈리

Justin Mason: The Diamondbacks may not want the Padres trading their SP to the Tigers.

Adam: Help with the question of our generation (or, pick 1.1 in a Deep dynasty league): Crews, Langford, or Skenes?

Justin Mason: Really close but I think it is Langford

Lotar: Every year there are post-hype guys that the community discards because they didn’t pop as rookies, but their pedigree shines through.  Last year, Casas, Torkelson and CJ Abrams were the forgotten toys that helped win leagues.  Any spotlight to shine on some busted rookie prospects that will have consistent playing time in their sophmore season?

Justin Mason: MAnzardo, Curtis  MEad, Tovar, Hunter Brown, Pfaadt, Cowser

Houzer: Projections on Michael Harris Jr seem to pretty favorable at around a 25/25 season despite prob hitting in the bottom of the lineup. Do you favor him over Bichette in a vacuum?

Justin Mason: I prefer Bichette, but it is close to me.

Houzer: Okay .. Jackson Merril I meant!

Justin Mason: Problem with that deal is Jackson Merrill moving and the Tigers probably don’t want Cronenworth’s contract

RAGBRAI: India? Will he stay or will he go?

Justin Mason: They’ve said he is going to stay. I wish theyd move him though

RAGBRAI: Are the Brewers going to hold on to their top players and make one more run? Decisions can always be made at the trade deadline. Fans would understand if they are out it but they need to avoid another Hader fiasco.

Justin Mason: I think they will tear it down at some point.

RAGBRAI: Who might get traded that no one is talking about right now?

Justin Mason: I said Adames on the pod today.

Dodgers Blue: How likely is it that the Marlins do indeed deal one of their young pitchers.  I’ve gotta believe Eury and Luzardo are untouchable right now.  If so, who goes and what can they expect to get back?

Justin Mason: I don’t think they will. They have been unwilling to do so and now have less depth than they have in years.

Dodgers Blue: Which of the young Cleveland starters are you willing to gamble a littler earlier on?  (ERA, WHIP, Ks all matter).

Justin Mason: Bibee is my dude. Love Williams as well, but I think Bibee is the more polished pitcher.

Orioles: What happens to Westberg if Holliday opens in Baltimore?

Justin Mason: Utility guy more than likely or in a time share

D: Would you rather Rich Hill or Rich Fitts ?

Justin Mason: Hill!

Guest: Will you be hosting Yamamoto for a meeting this winter along with everyone else?

Justin Mason: I would love to. I know some great sushi restaurants in SF if he’d like to join me. We could invite Kikuchi too

Adam: With Lee Jung Hoo landing in SF,  can the SBs and (hopefully) BABIP drive him to be a premium OF?

Justin Mason: I worry how quickly he can adjust to MLB. I am excited to have him in SF, but Kim really struggled in that first year and I wouldn’t be surprised if Lee does too.

Guest: Latest text to paul says:

Justin Mason: 10:30am?

Dynasty: In the offseason, how do you approach wanting to make a move for a guy you know will get hype (e.g., Pepiot), but not seeming overly eager about it so that the price goes up?

Justin Mason: That’s tough. Hard not to tip your hand after a big news item hits. Might ask about 3-4 guys at once. “Hey I am interested in a number of your pitchers like Montgomery, Berrios Pepiot, and Lynn. What would you be looking for in return?” and see what he prices Pepiot at in that convo.

D: Don’t be fooled: Dick Mountain sounds fun in theory but is not practical. There’s no beating Dick Fitts.

Justin Mason: dum dum tiss

RAGBRAI: While the NLC might still be the worst division in MLB is is more competitive in ‘24 or at least is there more parity? As of today who would you pick to win it?

Justin Mason: Cardinals, I think

Chip: I saw that Yamamoto had second meetings with both NY teams, but didn’t see any other teams mentioned. Did he not meet a second time with anyone else? The way the reporting was phrased seemed confusing.

Justin Mason: Hard to ever really know. Maybe the west coast teams aren’t willing to go as high or maybe he wants to play in NY?

Justin Mason: I am through all the questions, so send me more.

Justin Mason: I may wrap up a little early especially if we don’t get more questions

Chip: I have an open trade offer for Yordan Alvarez. I’m scared to pull the trigger because of his injury history. Can he get 600 PA?

Justin Mason: I tend to believe he is going to continue to be a guy that struggles to stay on the field. Arthritic knees and that body are not going to get better.

Chip: Is Springer cooked? He was bad last year.

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is. The underlying numbers are fine

Justin Mason: Just needs to stay healthy imo

Johny5Alive: Mets miss out on yamamoto. What do you do if your stearns?

Justin Mason: Tear it to the ground and rebuild. That division is too tough to compete with half a team

Justin Mason: They won’t but that is what I would do. Build something like Atlanta and Baltimore did

RAGBRAI: How is SD’s SPerd impacted by the loss of Soto, Grisham and TBD!

Justin Mason: SPerd?

Chip: Does Skenes start the year in the majors?

Justin Mason: No, but I think he is up early

RAGBRAI: I have Butto and Priester as $1 possible keepers. Do you see either in the starting rotation and are they worth a flyer?

Justin Mason: I don’t think either is in the rotation to start the season TBH

Justin Mason: Ok, going to wrap up a little early today. I will do alonger one next time. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!