Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – December 16th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin when I have questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Pietro: In an OBP dynasty league, would you trade Torkelson for Rengifo straight up? Currently have LA Acuna as the only 2B on my MLB roster. Other 1Bs are Naylor, Steer, and Diaz

Justin Mason: I don’t have an issue with that. Maybe see if you can get a small piece back tho?

Chase: Why aren’t the Yankees focused more on center fielders specifically? Any names that might be on their radar?

Justin Mason: There is not much on the market in terms of free agents and they may not want to trade a ton from their system quite yet. If they do, Luis Robert could be interesting but I don’t know how much they trust his health.

Mochi: Who do you generally like better for next year?  Eugenio or Paredes?

Justin Mason: I think they are pretty similar to be honest, but I really love Parades going to Houston and being able to take advantage of the crawford boxes.

Greg: In a 12-team points league where you keep forever and keeper rounds never change, which TWO would you keep Michael King (2nd round), Jared Jones (25th round), Bryan Woo (25th round).

Justin Mason: Woo and Jones at those prices.

Broken Bat: what 6 teams is Arenado ok in going to ie. No trade clause.

Justin Mason: I would say the Red Sox right now, but the Phillies could be really interesting if they move Bohm.

Honkus Wagner: 12 team W+QS. same keeper value, how do you rank Schwellenbach, Sandy Alcantara, McClanahan? all can be kept three years

Justin Mason: So for me it is Schwellenbach, McClanahan and then Alcantara, but I think the differences are all pretty close

Charlotte: Spencer Schwellenbach – are we holding or selling? There’s just *something* about him that makes me nervous.

Justin Mason: I love Schwellenbach. Love the command and control and there is more strikeout upside in that arm. I have zero concerns for him

Ryno: A lot of Christian Walker owners are selling in dynasty and I’m buying, but I’m trying to figure out reasonable offers…how many more years of productivity can we expect? Or does it not matter since he’s elite now and 1B is a relative wasteland?

Justin Mason: I think right now you don’t worry a ton about the future. He may fall off in the next few years, but if you can get a good price on him before he signs with a team like the Yankees, then I would for sure

Broken Bat: Sorry, maybe I phrased my question wrong, but I understand Arenado has waived his no trade clause for 6 teams. Do you know what those teams are?

Justin Mason: Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Red Sox, Phillies and Mets is what I saw

Orange Fire: Is $9 Danny Jansen a keeper (AL only. 4×4–no Rs or WHIP. 2 catcher league.  23 man roster, so just about every hitter gets rostered)?

Justin Mason: I think he is probably pretty close to a keeper, but give me a minute and I can run my numbers on that

Justin Mason: I have Jansen as a $7 catcher in that format. So with inflation that is pretty close

Mike: 2025 only, how would you order these 4 SP: Framber, Kirby, Imanaga, deGrom? Thanks!

Justin Mason: These are all really close so it could change for me as I haven’t done my pitching projections yet, but right now I would have them: Kirby, deGrom, Framber, Imanaga

Izzy: Good luck with people following those rules 🙂

Justin Mason: It is an uphill battle most days lol

Justin Mason: but with so few questions I am answering them as they all come in, so send me more!

Mochi: Should I feel encouraged about my Gavin Lux shares after the rumor that the Dodgers didn’t want to part with him for Devin Williams?  Just feels like they’re forcing the Mookie/Lux MIF at this point and doesn’t exactly make me feel warm and fuzzy

Justin Mason: I feel like I am Charlie Brown trying to kick a football with Lux. I believe in the talent and I know there is more there, but I just don’t know if it will ever all come together for him. As long as they don’t add a second baseman, I feel pretty good he will get another shot and I will be trying to kick that football again

Cyrus: How confident are you in Lawrence Butler’s second half breakout?

Justin Mason: I know there is risk, but I am a huge believer in the growth we saw in Lawrence Butler. He improved his approach and in-zone contact while not sacrificing power. Now he is moving to a better park. I am in and have already drafted him once.

Dodgers Blue: If you were the Cubs, wouldn’t you simply trade the player who brought back the most value in a trade between Bellinger and Suzuki?  I get Belly is eating roughly $9M more per year so they want to shed that, but if Seiya is more valuable to another team, why not move him instead and keep Bellinger around, especially since he offers more defensive value?  Also, do you have any bounce back hope for Hoerner?

Justin Mason: I think ultimately they will do exactly what you are saying with Suzuki, but they don’t need to rush quite yet. They are a smart organization and will wait for another team to get a little more desperate as the free agents and other trade options dry up. As far as Nico Hoerner goes. It is all about health. He had flexor tendon surgery and we don’t know if he will be ready for the season. If healthy come spring training, I will be back in

Kate: Who do you think emerges from the Red Sox bullpen with the lion’s share of the save chances come openind day?

Justin Mason: If healthy, I think it is Hendriks.

Dodgers Blue: Between Hicks and Birdsong, who is at more risk if/when the Giants add another starting option?  Do they move Hicks to the ‘pen and keep Birdsong, or simply keep Hayden down on the far longer at that point?

Justin Mason: Birdsong is definitely more at risk. I could see them moving Hicks to the pen or a hybrid role, but Birdsong has options.

Kate: What are the odds Brendan Rodgers finds something resembling an everyday gig?  Obviously it hurts leaving Coors, but could a better org tease something out of him?  He hits it hard, just not in the air / to the pull side enough.

Justin Mason: I think it is unlikely he gets a full time gig out the gate. His best option is to sign with a team without a ton of depth where he can be a utility infielder and hope to show he is better than the others on the team. Miami? Angels? Pittsburgh? Maybe even SF?

SteveS: 12 team, OBP and QS Roto League and we can carry over 4 players from our prior year roster as long as they were not carried into 2024.  Do you consider any of the following carry over candidates? Lawrence Butler, Matt McClain Jordan Westburg, Shane McClanahan, Hunter Greene, or Joe Ryan, all available for minimum dollars?

Justin Mason: Give me Butler, Greene, Ryan and McClanahan as carry overs. Depending on when your keeper date is, you could switch out McClanahan for McLain depending on either’s health

Kate: Bido is pretty clearly on the outside looking in for a rotation spot now, right?

Justin Mason: Looks like it right now, but that could change as he is clearly #6 at worst right now.

Keefths: Are Coby Mayo and Kjerstad gona get a shot early on ? Seems crowded in Baltimore especially with the addition of Tyler O’Neill ?

Justin Mason: I think both are probably on the outside looking in, but I could see either getting a shot if the Orioles don’t think like Holliday is ready or if they decide that they can get more out of one of them than O’Hearn. The problem is their bench is full with guys without options.

Ryno: Mason Miller or Josh Naylor in a 15-tm 6×6 roto dynasty league that counts OPS & AVG for hitting, and Saves & Holds as two separate categories?

Justin Mason: Miller

Ryno: What about Miller or Bryan Reynolds?

Justin Mason: I lean Miller here in that deep of a league, but I love Reynolds

Kate: Think Josh Bell finds something like an everyday role?

Justin Mason: I think he will get a shot somewhere, but hard to know where and what kind of role until we see where Alonso, Walker, and Goldschmidt sign

Kate: Trying to think of landing spots for Tanner Scott the get him back into a closer role.  Texas almost makes too much sense to not happen, no?  Their pen is such a clear need.

Justin Mason: Texas makes a ton of sense. Maybe Washington if they are serious about competing.

k2: 10-team NL only keeper. Do I need to at least consider keeping Trevor Megill as a saves option at $5? Raisel at $17 is the other possibility.

Justin Mason: I would definitely consider both, but Iglesias is way more safe. I think Megill gets a shot to be the guy, but it could be very fluid.

Dodgers Blue: Which Twins dart would you rather throw in a deep league:  David Festa or Zebby Matthews.  ERA/WHIP/Ks all part of the equation…..

Justin Mason: Festa for me.

Cyrus: With Acuna missing the beginning of the season, does Michael Harris get a bump in rankings if the presumption is him leading off for a month or two?Where do you seeing him hitting after Acuna starts playing?

Justin Mason: I really just don’t love Harris from an approach standpoint. I could see them doing it for a bit, but there is just as good of a chance he is batting sixth or seventh. He hit leadoff in 48 games last year but sixth in 22 games and seventh in 30

2025 prospect class: What are your expectations for the 2025 rookie class?  Any early favorites for ROY?

Justin Mason: I think it is a really interesting class depending on when players get called up. Roman Anthony is my clear bet for AL ROY.

Justin Mason: maybe Bubba Chandler in the NL?

k2: Is there such a thing as having too many pitchers from the same team? 10-team NL only roto, with categories somewhat weighted to overvalue SPs. Going to have Skenes ($5) and Jared Jones ($7). Too much to keep Keller at $15?

Justin Mason: I don’t think that is a major issue except in a situation like this where the team isn’t necessarily good. If you believe the Pirates will be much better, than it make sense, but otherwise that is a lot of pitchers on a bad team which won’t be good for wins.

mitch: who do you like better in a 12 team h2h FG pts – jeremy pena or xavier edwards?

Justin Mason: edwards

Billy: How do you approach valuing pitchers like C Sanchez (boring but reliable groundball, low Ks, high IP) vs Pepiot with a better K/9 ratio, but maybe slightly fewer IP and higher volatility?

Justin Mason: I run my projections to get the value, but I think this is more of a question of roster construction. You need balance through the categories. Sanchez is a guy I like but that can be bad for your whip so if you have other bad WHIP guys or low strikeout pitchers, than he may not fit your construction.

Dodgers Blue: Pick one from each group (stats include AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, SB):   2B between Colt Keith and Spencer Horwitz and at MI between Brooks Lee and Jacob Wilson윌슨.

Justin Mason: Keith and Lee

Counting Down the days: Is the expectation that Sasaki will start in the majors from Day 1?  Is he essentially negotiating this while meeting with teams?

On a related note, If he blows out his elbow before the season starts and needs TJ, would his time out count towards his MLB service time, or could this push out his FA a couple of years?

Justin Mason: I think expectation is that he starts in the Majors. As far as the other question goes, it would depend on how the team handled it.

Dude…Sweet: With Springs shipped out, does this clear a path for Rassmussen to start?  Or is he likely starting in relief until someone gets hurt… should I just be staying away from him regardless?

Justin Mason: I think he is still being looked at for the bullpen, but I am waiting to see what the team says as we get closer to spring.

Pepper: 20 team H2H.  Rebuilding team.   Might be turning the corner.   Tough cuts coming.  Guys like Owen Cassie, Kevin alcantara, Festa, Cade Horton, Sproat, Edward Cabrera and Andrew Vaughn on my bubble.  Do any of these guys leap out as “must keep” or are they fairly fungible?

Justin Mason: I think a lot of them are borderline. I would want to keep Festa and Cassie tho

Spanky: Who are the 3 FA or trade targets you are watching most closely right now as there landing spots will dramatically change your rankings or evaluations?

Justin Mason: Christian Walker- want to see what park/team he ends up with.
Jurickson Profar– Will he end up in a park that helps him?
Jeff Hoffman– What’s his role?

Dodgers Blue: Are teams waiting for someone to blink to start the market on relief pitchers?  I get that most are a dime-a-dozen, but there are some real quality arms out there (Yates, Hoffman, Robertson, Tanner Scott to name a few) that I’m surprised haven’t signed already.  These guys should all be easy, no-brainer signings by now, no?

Justin Mason: I think teams were waiting to see where the tradable players like Williams and Helsley would end up costing. I think we should start seeing movement on them soon.

E: 14 team dynasty league: are you keeping jt realmuto or tyler stephenson? Also have moises ballesteros stashed but might let him go.

Justin Mason: Still Realmuto for me

Joe: Does Tyler O’Neill profile as a guy you can roster in a ten team league?

Justin Mason: I think he is because the replacement value is there to replace him when he gets hurt

JSweetchuck: How do we feel about Jordan Westburg going into 2025? Keeper?

Justin Mason: I am not as big of a fan of Westburg as others, but I am interested to see if the dimension changes in Baltimore makes him more interesting for me. I just don’t know if he has the carrying tool for fantasy to make him really good or if he is just an accumulator that is better suited for deeper formats.

Joe: Shouldn’t you be podcasting right now?

Justin Mason: should be recording today with Paul!

Guest: Chourio, Merrill or Langford ROC?

Justin Mason: Chourio for me, but Merrill is close

Justin Mason: also love Langford but just not as a finished product as the other two

Robbie: What are your 2025 expecations for Strider? How much of a decline we expect since this is is second TJ recovery?

Justin Mason: really hard to know without a concrete timeline. I tend to stay away from TJ returnees because they are hard to predict in their first season back

Spanky: 16 team 7×7 roto, W, SV, HLD, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB. Pick a keeper out of Pablo Lopez, Logan Webb or Crochet.

Justin Mason: Crochet

FishFan: Is Jacob Berry gonna hit? Very strong performance after he came back in June

Justin Mason: I honestly don’t know enough about him to give you a great answer

Dodgers Blue: How much are you buying in to Jurickson Profar’s out of nowhere resurgence….just in time for free agency?  BB and K ratios remained near career numbers, but EVERYTHING else moved well north of where they

Justin Mason: I am buying into him a bit, but I don’t think this was a massive step forward, but luckily the price on him isn’t outrageous.

Bobby Peru: Roto 16 teamer, standard cats plus BB and SLG. Keep 1 of Josh Jung, Volpe, McLain and 1 of Happ, Willson Contreras or Ozuna. Thanks

Justin Mason: Contreras in a 2C league. Ozuna in a 1C league.

Anthony: In my 10 team OBP/QS dynasty league, I received an offer of Cole Ragans for Wyatt Langford. Who would you rather have?

Justin Mason: If I am competing now, it is Ragans.

SteveS: What impact on Lindor do you see with the signing of Soto?

Justin Mason: He could rack up a ton of runs with Soto in tow especially if Alonso comes back as I expect. It just really helps his potential for counting categories.

Swoosh: Was 2024 the high-water mark offensively for Gunnar?

Justin Mason: I think he could just be that good. Made massive improvements in his underlying skills.

Swoosh: Is Rooker in the top-25 in 2025 wOBA?

Justin Mason: I don’t think quite that high

Swoosh: Better fantasy player in an OBP and non-SB league – Mayo or Kjerstad?

Justin Mason: Mayo

Anthony: What does the move to Toronto do for Andres Gimenez’s fantasy value? I feel like playing in that park and the AL East in general has to help, but have also read he’s just not a good hitter.

Justin Mason: I think it hurts him. It is a good team around him, but they just don’t run much as a team. His power is middling. I think he does more to help the pitchers with his defense than he improves offensively.

SteveS: With Soto gone, what can we expect from Judge in 2025?

Justin Mason: Less runs/rbis than with Soto, but I don’t think it hurts him a ton overall. He is a stud

Pepper: Incoming first year players to draft.  Who’s your top four or five?

Justin Mason: my top five in FYPD: Sasaki, Bazzana, Wetherholt, Kurtz, Burns

Colton: How much did Oneil Cruz’s second half move him for you? Seemed to get more comfortable as the season wore on and was tapping into some of the insane power better than he has in the past. Not to mention the dual eligibility now, has he jumped into the 3rd round or better?

Justin Mason: I don’t know that it moves him a ton for me. The underlying contact skills will always scare me a fair amount even though I love the limitless power in the bat. I will gamble on him in shallower formats but usually fade in deeper ones.

Bobby Peru: 20 team H2H, pitching cats are QS, SV, HLD, K, ERA, WHIP. Please rank these midlevel guys as I’ll probably need to drop 1 to fit other guys that finished ’24 on IL: Scherzer, Luzardo, Gil, Kutter, Pfaadt

Justin Mason: Pfaadt, Gil, Kutter, Scherzer, Luzardo

Justin Mason: Ok, I have to wrap up. Thnk you for chatting with me! Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!