Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – December 11th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Vince: Justin, Thanks for ‘Way too early’ thoughts on … preferences (and why) in 12 tm, category H2H — Albies or Semien; two of three OFs Arozarena, Suzuki and Nolan Jones.

Justin Mason: I think I lean Semien in a redraft, but in a keeper which this seems like it is, I go Albies

Realest: Think Tyler O’Neill is a top 200 pick with the move to boston? Or more of a late round power flyer?

Justin Mason: I think he is close now, but not quite there yet for me. I did take him in the 16th round of my current Gladiator league which was around pick 230. That feels about right to me. If he goes higher than that, I am probably out.

Realest: Any idea if we see Trevor Bauer in MLB again this year?

Justin Mason: No idea. My inclination is no, but all it takes it one team to do it.

Realest: Any hope for guys like henry davis or MJ melendez now that they’ve lost C eligibility?

Justin Mason: I think this is actually a buying opportunity for both. Melendez isn’t getting catcher eligibility back but there is pop and some speed on the top of an improving lineup. Davis should get catcher eligibility back at some point and still get ABs in the outfield.

Marjinwalker: Dodgers infield situation. Am I crazy for thinking having Betts play the infield is not really optimal? Not just the higher risk of injury, but you are also betting that someone like Heyward will be better than someone like Bush/Vargas, which also seems iffy to me. Best route is probably trading some of those pitching prospects for a real shortstop (Stone/Knack/Bruns for Jorge Mateo?) and moving Lux to second, Mookie to Left, and Heyward/Outman/Taylor figuring out the other 2 OF positions….

Justin Mason: I don’t think you are crazy at all especially when you account for Betts’ arm in right. I am not buying he is only playing second. I do hope the Dodgers move Busch at some point since he is now blocked though.

Ben: What can we expect from Eflin next year? Was 2023 his peak, or is his rise into the top-20 pitchers sustainable?

Justin Mason: I think the skills are there for him to sustain the breakout. Question with Eflin is always health. I am willing to draft him as a top 30 starter.

Lotar: Hi Justin!

Justin Mason: Hi!

Lotar: Hi Justin!  Why do you think there is so little fantasy content that actually goes into reviewing the previous season’s ADP to performance? In almost all other walks of life, analysis starts with analyzing what happened previously.  It’s startlingly absent from what otherwise is an overly analytical industry.

Justin Mason: I don’t disagree with you. Unfortunately, it is not what gets clicks especially because so many people are not tuned into baseball right now with football still happening and basketball going now.

Flip: Who’s this years Cedric M?

Justin Mason: I will let you know when I find him. Probably early January

DIADEM: What is the path for Lawler after the Suarez signing? Beat out Perdomo? Platoon with Suarez?

Justin Mason: I think he is probably going to AAA until there is an opening.

Questions: Rank these starters for 2024: Valdez, Eflin, Berrios, Skubal, Pepiot, Peralta

Justin Mason: Skubal, Valdez, Eflin, Peralta, Berrios, Pepiot

Justin Mason: I wrote that like three different ways so the 2-4 spots are really close

Norm Golan: In an Ottoneu Points league, I’ve been debating trading a $30 Yelich for a $10 Nolan Gorman, just not a huge Yelich guy really. But every time I look at the OF pool, I’m shocked by how shallow it is, especially in a format like Ottoneu. Is it just me or is the bulk of the OF pool a huge sea of meh in deeper leagues?

Justin Mason: Outfield is not great this season. I think there are interesting sprinkles late, but there isn’t the depth at the position that we have had in previous seasons.

Cody: Wondering who your top prospect for re-Draft leagues is? I’m leaning towards Wyatt Langford so far.

Justin Mason: Jackson Holliday

Kate: How do you think the Boston outfield shakes out in terms of PT with Verdugo out and O’Neill coming in?

Justin Mason: O’Neill, Yoshida, and Duran play everyday-ish.

Kate: Have you ever looked at Alex Chamberlain’s Tableau pitcher dashboard?  Trying to figure how much to value his “deserved” walk and strikeout rates?

Justin Mason: I have looked at it, but I often just walk away from it realizing how dumb I am.

Justin Mason: I think it is a great resource, but I am not great with Tableau

Honkus Wagner: best trade fit in your opinion for Cease, Glasnow, Burnes?

Justin Mason: Cease – Baltimore, Burnes – LA, Glasnow – Cubs

Honkus Wagner: When selecting keepers, do you like focus on locking in specific positions or category advantages, or spreading out risk in different areas?

Justin Mason: Usually looking for how I best construct my team given what the pool should look like. I first make a mock of what I think the other teams will likely do. Then I look at my team and the rest of the prospective pool and figure out how I would construct the best possible team.

Greased lightning: Can you rank Skubal, Framber, B Miller, Musgrove and Ragans for 2024 in non-wins leagues with a big HR penalty?

Justin Mason: Skubal, Framber, Ragans, Miller, Musgrove

Justin Mason: Another one that could have been in different orders. I think Framber-Musgrove are all close.

Guest: Outside of Chourio, Holliday, Langford, Carter, any prospects you see coming up early and having a big impact in 2024?

Justin Mason: Colt Keith, Cade Horton, Ricky Tiedmann

Screwball: Interested to hear your thoughts on a couple guys who had really nice skills gains last year in Ryan Jeffers and Luis Rengifo.  Think those stick?  O/U FGDC projections of .321 wOBA for Jeffers and .326 for Rengifo?

Justin Mason: I am not a believer in Jeffers. I thought I would be and took him in my first draft, but after a deeper dive, I am not believing there was much of a skills growth, but actually he was just lucky.   Renigfo has decent skills, but I just don’t know if the Angels really like him. If he is in line for full time playing time, I might be a buyer in deeper formats, but nothing in the profile says he is a breakout, but he could be a valuable accumulator.

Lotar: Is it a foregone conclusion that Roki Sasaki wants to be posted to sign with the Dodgers and play with Shohei?

Justin Mason: I think it is a strong possibility, but I wouldn’t say it is a foregone conclusion.

Guest: hey there

Justin Mason: Hey!

Guest: Can you rank off the top of your head these catching prospects in order of possible 2024 fantasy impact: Jeferson Quero, Diego Cartaya, Edgar Quero, Dalton Rushing, Samuel Basallo, Harry Ford.

Justin Mason: I could be it would likely be worthless. Predicting catcher prospects is almost impossible because teams value game calling and defense and that is so hard to predict from looking at stat lines and reading scouting reports.

M v G: Think last year was more like Matt McLain’s floor, or his ceiling? Debating him vs Gorman in a 12-team H2H keeper OBP league.

Justin Mason: I think this was between his floor and ceiling. I do think he is a ton safer than Gorman and the upside isn’t that much different. They are not particularly close to me. I am taking McLain

Bruce: Head to head points league. Can keep 2 of these 3 which should I keep. Pepiot, Bibee, Casas

Justin Mason: Bibee and Casas

Guest: brice turang and his chances to get near 15/15 or maybe more – a better average leading to more production? idk just curious

Justin Mason: I think 15 homers is a pipe dream, but he could be like 10/30 in full time playing time. Maybe even more stolen bases. The problem is the Brewers will likely platoon him.

Brouhaha: Are you buying the Ian Hamilton mini-breakout?  Needs to lower walks, but 18% K-BB and 55% GB is pretty nice.

Justin Mason: I am buying it some. I think if healthy, he could be a really interesting holds guy. Like you mentioned, he needs to keep the walks in check, but the command was impressive and there is a ton of strikeout upside.

Kenny: seems like rangers and brewers would be great trade partners for Burnes. Justin Foscue and someone like Blake Crim for Burnes. Who would say no in that situation

Justin Mason: I think the Brewers want more, but I do think they could matchup. Honestly, any team willing to empty the farm for a year of Burnes is in play. The Rangers are definitely a team that could.

KC Pain: What position has the steepest dropoff in talent?

Justin Mason: Outfield

KC Pain: Do you have any cheap “draft 3-4 of them and hope 1 lands” SP recommendation?  Low hype but a dude you think might just figure it all out? Giolito being an example.  In a 20 team dynasty w 25 minor roster too

Justin Mason: Kremer, Pfaadt, Cristopher Sanchez, Reid Detmers

Paul Sporer: What’s my 2024 outlook like? Overrated or underrated? Any injury expectations?

Justin Mason: Injuries always play a role here because it is a poor body type. I think he is underrated after a down 2023, but if he comes out with big flashy takes in spring, you may want to fade the hype.

KC Pain: Rumors of Cle listening to offers on Naylor….why? Team needs all the bats it can get

Justin Mason: They are cheap

The Sultan of Swat: Can you rank Heyward, Pham, DJ Stewart, H Ramirez, S Garret by end-of-year wOBA?

Justin Mason: I haven’t done my projections for outfield yet, so I don’t think I can lol

DH: In a dynasty, would you rather have Jordan Walker or Jackson Holliday? Why?

Justin Mason: Holliday. I think he is potentially a generational talent. I love Walker, but I think the upside is a bit lower.

Dodgers Blue: Gelof or Westburg as a better MI bench stash?

Justin Mason: Gelof

Dodgers Blue: Why haven’t the Marlins signed Tim Anderson to play 2b and Amed Rosario to play SS for them yet?

Justin Mason: I hope they sign Anderson. Rosario is a bad fit because of his defense.

Paddy: Where do you rank Snell for next season? Anything you will watch for in spring training?

Justin Mason: He is probably not a top 25 starter for me. Going to be in a worse park and the walks scare the crap out of me. His landing spot could definitely change things for me, but right now I am out.

Chip: Are you buying DJLM as the full time 3B in the Bronx next season? Seems like between injury and underperformance penciling him in as a starter for a club with World Series aspirations is a mistake.

Justin Mason: I think they are still going to add pieces. Even if they are minor.

Justin Mason: So, no

Replacing Wander: How would you try to replace Wander in a 10-team dynasty OBP where all the obvious SS and Jackson Holliday are owned?

Justin Mason: You aren’t going to replace him. He was supposed to be a star for a decade. If you are looking for now, maybe like Matt Shaw. If you are thinking long term, Spencer Walcott.

RGM: Do you know a public place to look up Pulled Fly Ball% outside of the players individual splits page?

Justin Mason: I am sure there is on Savant, but off the top of my head, I don’t know for sure.

DH: Guys who popped in Stuff+ in a small sample: Joe Boyle, Keaton Winn, Sawyer Gipson-Long. How would you rank them, and why? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Boyle, Winn, SGP. For me it is about opportunity and role. All things being equal, I think SGP is my favorite, but he is blocked now with the Maeda signing. I also prefer Winn over Boyle in a vacuum, but I don’t trust the Giants in the way they are using their pitchers.

GRod: Please confirm my wishful thinking that Grayson is going nuclear this year after his 2.76 second-half FIP.  I will ignore that his xFIP was not that different across the two halves last year.

Justin Mason: I think it is in the range of outcomes because I think the first half struggles were a lot of bad luck and some poor usage. I am trying to not too excited because he is expensive, but there is a reason why

Dodgers Blue: Who says no?  Willy Adames to Dodgers to play SS; Gavin Lux to Brew Crew to play 2b (moving Brice Turang to his natural SS position)…..

Charlie Sheen: Do you see Estevez getting the bulk of saves in Anaheim?

Justin Mason: I would love that, but I think the Dodgers like Lux’s flexibility more than you think.

Justin Mason: Sorry, about the out of order there.

Justin Mason: I think Estevez is the dude in Anaheim unless they trade him which they could do.

Evil Empire: How many runs does Soto score this year?

Justin Mason: 110

Chip: Where are you drafting Yamamoto?

Justin Mason: I am not more than likely. I am usually ok missing out on the international players when they come over because they are so hard to project. Unless their price is really low, I tend to stay away.

Dodgers Blue: Are you in the Eury Perez, Bobby Miller or Grayson Rodriguez camp?

Justin Mason: Can I take all three? I think I have them Perez, Grayson, Miller, but I love them all.

Guest: 12 team weekly category, keep 12 (+ 4 minor), 260$, 3$ yearly inflation. Which 4 of 6 to keep 7$ G.rodriguez, 7$ glasnow, 4$ bradish, 4$ g. williams, 4$ j. soler, 5$ L. thomas.
Thanks!

Justin Mason: Give me the four pitchers.

Vince: … 2nd part of earlier question — which two of three OFs Arozarena, Suzuki and Nolan Jones (10-tm, category H2H. Thanks

Justin Mason: Arenado and Suzuki for me, but I am tempted to take Jones over Suzuki

Dodgers Blue: What catchers are going just before and just after Yainer Diaz so far?  You own stock?

Justin Mason: So far Diaz is going fifth at catcher right after William Contreras and right before Sean Murphy, Raleigh, Francisco Alvarez, and Sal Perez. I have drafted Diaz and Perez out of that group. I love Diaz, but I worry the price is going to go too high.

Justin Mason: Catcher is so deep that in most formats, I am waiting.

Insert Witty Name Here: The pitch clock I think had a huge effect on some pitchers (cough, Nola, cough).  After a year of data, is there anything that supports this and are you fading some pitchers because of it?

Justin Mason: I am sure there is data out there, but it is a small sample so I don’t know how much I am buying it. The one caveat is that I think that the added injuries are related so I am being very careful with my injury risk in the pitching department.

ML: Do you think Erick Fedde 페디’s results in the KBO will carry over at all in his return to MLB?

Justin Mason: Probably not.

Guest: any interest in BRICE TURANG?
does TRAVIS DARNAUD have late late round value?

Justin Mason: I answered a question about Turang above, so check that out. D’Arnaud is interesting in 2 catcher 15-team leagues but I think that is about it and I am usually looking for a bit mroe upside.

Dodgers Blue: With the management and coaching changes in LA, which of the Angels player(s) do you see being impacted the most positively?

Justin Mason: I think they overall farm system should improve. I think they will begin to focus more on drafting for long term as opposed to these guys that are closer to the Majors with lower ceilings.

Dilly Dog: Will Zac Veen end up as basically empty stolen bases?

Justin Mason: I definitely think that is in the range of outcomes.. I think there is raw power in the bat but I worry that his approach won’t allow him to unlock it and the Rockies aren’t great at developing guys

Dilly Dog: Thoughts on young starters in a QS league? Seems tough for prospects to get the innings.

Justin Mason: I tend to lean away to the young guys because teams are more reluctant to let them go deep. I usually make exception for organizations like the Marlins that like to let their guys go.

ML: Will Jo Adell do anything this year?

Justin Mason: I want to still believe in him, but I don’t

tdk90min: is the STASSI move a good sign for him and D’ARNAUD?

Justin Mason: I think Stassi is the starter in Chicago as long as he is healthy. D’Arnaud still has Murphy ahead of him.

Dodgers Blue: Have you heard any realistic names that the ChiSox would want back from the O’s in a Dylan Cease trade?

Justin Mason: I have not, but I think they are hoping that after Yamamoto and Snell sign, some teams panic.

Guy: Who do you have more hope for becoming a decent hitter in a 30 teamer? Akil Baddoo or Nick Fortes?

Justin Mason: Ugh… I guess Fortes, but really neither.

HappyFunBall: Is it true that if Ohtani stacked up the earnings from his entire contract at home plate in Chavez Ravine, it would measurably alter the orbit of the planet?

Justin Mason: I hope that is true because it’s hilarious.

Eh?: I have the choice of selecting Oscar Colas (CHW), Jose Rodriguez (CHW), or Hunter Goodman (1B/DH) in my league’s Rule 5 draft. How would you rank them?

Justin Mason: Colas, Goodman, Rodriguez

Freddy Benevides: Luis Robert 2023. Career year, or did he some things out in terms of hitting and staying on the field, with more of like to come?

Justin Mason: He is a stud when he stays on the field, but I am not ready to buy that yet.

Johnny5Alive: Just pointing out the hypocrisy of last winter when the mets signed Verlander and everything cohen was doing was “bad for baseball” and they had to make a new cap to penalize him specifically, and yet the dodgers signing ohtani to that contract, with reportedly much of it deferred to circumvent the salary cap is “great for baseball” and “where he needed to be for the MLB”.  It’s, quite honestly, BS

Justin Mason: I agree. Any time players get paid what they are worth it is good for the game.

Justin Mason: All these teams can afford these deals. Some are just willing to do it and many are not.

Chip: What are your thoughts about Rodon? Is he cooked/broken or just unlucky in ’23?

Justin Mason: I think he is a great pitcher when he is healthy. I am willing to take the risk he is this year at his current price but if he looks good in spring then that price will rise and I may be more sheepish.

Dodgers Blue: Sneaky late-round catcher targets of yours????

Justin Mason: How late are we talking? I like Patrick Bailey at 354, Langeliers at 276, Fermin at 400

Justin Mason: Ok, that is all the questions. Thank you for chatting with me. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!