Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – August 5th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

sparky lyle: Which one would you drop as the 3rd rp on my team : Ben Joyce or Andrew Nardi? points league

Justin Mason: I would drop Nardi

Tim: Is Austin Wells becoming a thing? He seems to be responding to the increased PT and the Yanks seem to like him in the cleanup role

Justin Mason: Underlying contact skills are pretty good and he can hit the ball hard, Love seeing him hit clean up in this lineup. I am buying.

Don Von Handburger: Any news on Esteury Ruiz?  I have plenty of room for him on my IL, but I wonder if I should stop waiting for him and add a Jacob Young type to heal my aching steals category.

Justin Mason: I haven’t seen anything since he was pulled off of rehab. I would drop

Don Von Handburger: Should I drop Morel for Jeimer Candle-a-rio in a shallow OBP league?

Justin Mason: Morel is walking quite a bit since the break so I think that more than makes up for his low average. I would stick with his upside.

Chip: Robles has career highs in barrel rate, pull rate, wRC+, xwOBA, etc. It’s a critical week in my H2H. Is it time to pick him up in a 12-team, 3 OF league, with playoffs in mind? Might be dropping Heliot with his thumby.

Justin Mason: Yeah, I would ride the hot streak here with him

Trey: Who should I start in my last pitching slot this week…. Ragans vs Boston or R Ray vs Det?

Justin Mason: Ragans

Gabe: 12T Points redraft have playoffs locked up – how would you rank for ROS Springs, Cobb, Luis Ortiz, River Ryan? Any you’d be fine dropping for a stream slot?

Justin Mason: Ryan, Ortiz, Cobb, Springs. I have no problem dropping Cobb or SPrings for a streamer

Don Von Handburger: I’m in a 12-team mixed league, how do I choose which of Fry or Realmuto to start at catcher on a day-to-day basis?  Should it just always be Realmuto unless he is sitting or Fry has a juicy matchup?

Justin Mason: I would normally use Realmuto unless matchups dictate sitting him or Fry has an amazing matchup

Idiotic Failson: Is Bobby Miller ever going to be good again? I had him as a cheap fantasy asset that I felt good about for the future now he’s become the Reid Detmers of Chavez Ravine.

Justin Mason: I think he will be fine in the long run

Don Von Handburger: When your roto team is frustrating you, do you ever dump a bear carcass in Manhattan to feel better?

Justin Mason: Yes and point awarded

Tork: Is Spencer Torkelson worth a dart (with next year in mind) in 5×5 12 team AL only keeper ? He’s $12 ($260 budget)

Justin Mason: I think he is worth a dart throw, but $12 is more than a dart throw.

Ghost of Mark Cahna: 12 tm h2h pts. Pick 2 SPs for this week: T.Bradley @ STL, B.Woo vs DET, R.Ray vs DET

Justin Mason: Bradley

Trey: Who should I start at 2B this week…. L Garcia (7 games but 2 lefties, so assume 5 starts) or the Swiss Army Knife, W Castro (6 games).

Justin Mason: Castro

Guest: Please rank Maikel Garcia, Morel, Nico, Gleyber, Brandon Lowe and Jorge Polanco for the ROS. I need a 2B and they’re all around the same price to acquire in a trade. 6×6 OPS 16 team H2H league. I’ve got the best team on paper but some bad H2H luck as got me in 6th.

Justin Mason: Nico, Garcia, Lowe, Gleyber, Morel

Cooper Criswell: drop brandon lowe to stream brendan rodgers this week? 12 team points league, clinched playoffs but fighting for bye

Justin Mason: Nope

Dylan Carlson: Rays aquire former big time prospect….do we like him as a potential cheap keeper next year in deep as all get out AL only?

Justin Mason: Yeah, while I have never been a carlson guy, I think he is a Rays type player that could be an accumulator in Tampa. AL is perfect for him.

Trey: Rank ROS for 12-team points-league…. Birdsong, Schwellenbach, Baz, Ray?

Justin Mason: Scwhellenback, Birdsong, Ray, Baz

Los Cards: Happened to own all 3 STL OFs in a 5OF league now that Pham got traded, all seem to have regular playing time now with Siani’s injury. Fine to keep them all or try to diversify? Any preference for Noot vs Pham ros?

Justin Mason: I think Pham is one of those guys that is only really useful if he is playing full time. I agree right now he should. I prefer Nootbaar over him ROS because the playing time is more secure

larry: need for speed: would you drop turang for robles? h2h standard categories

Justin Mason: I am ok with that.

Marcos: RoS Skubal or Wheeler?

Justin Mason: Skubal

Ted: So what are we doing with Morel in 12-teamers? I could use some power, but hard to swallow all the 0-fer nights

Justin Mason: This is who he is. There are going to be a lot of 0-fers but he will also light up the scoresheet in games that remind you why you drafted him. He isn’t for the weak of heart.

Broken bat: The Padres with that bullpen, and getting TatIs back…. I would not want to open vs. them in playoffs. Thoughts?

Justin Mason: I think they are very well set up for a big run especially if Musgrove can come back and give them anything. Could see another Philly/SD NLCS.

Nick: Thanks for chatting!  Thoughts on what to do with Evan Phillips in a 12 team, head-to-head, saves league?  He was supposed to be my stud closer coming into the year, so this has been a frustrating season to say the least.

Justin Mason: I feel like the Dodgers would like to see him be the guy, but at some point the inconsistency becomes a massive problem as the playoffs approach. I don’t have a problem moving on in a 12 depending who your other options are

Don Von Handburger: I have both Estevez and Alvarado from the Phillies bullpen?  When I need room, Alvarado is the one to drop, right?

Justin Mason: I think so.

Nicholas: I have to start two out of Bassit, Springs, Max Meyer, River Ryan, Tobias Meyers in a 12 team points league, help me select the least worst options??

Justin Mason: Give me Ryan and the Meyers two start

Colton: Looking for the future in dynasty, Holliday got dropped due to a roster crunch this year and is still available. Do you like him, the resurging Lux or maybe Morel more moving forward?

Justin Mason: RUN AND GO PICK UP HOLLIDAY NOW

Eric: How are we feeling about Tobias Myers?  1.61 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP over the last month but pulled early in each of his last two starts.  Worth a hold in a 14-T QS league or better to use that spot to stream or RP?

Justin Mason: I am holding for now

larry: do you see friedl being a worthwhile roster hold in 12 teams? alternatives would be josh lowe, abreu, parker meadows and lux

Justin Mason: I think Friedl will be. Underlying contact numbers are good.

Guest: how do you handle DTD injuries? I lost Robles’ latest combo meal on Friday because I cut after Wednesday. did I do anything wrong in that specific case?

Justin Mason: Nope, I did the same thing. Sometimes being aggressive backfires, but it is the right process.

louis copp: Redraft league: should I sell high on Brent Rooker? Or would I have to be high to sell Bent Rooker?

Rooker: So my $14 Rooker in AL only has survived the trade deadline, still a good possibility that he get’s traded this winter. Zimmerman says his research puts it at about 50/50 on which league players get traded to, FWIW – how motivated would you be to move him or keep him? Is he still a “only for a staggering offer” type player?

Justin Mason: I don’t think you should sell on him at this point. Dude just keeps on raking.

Justin Mason: I would hold Rooker if it was me. The park they will be in next season should be a massive hitters park and I don’t know that he is a guarantee to get moved

larry: does jose miranda stay a full time player with royce lewis back?

Justin Mason: With the way he has hit, I would expect he is.

Guest: Reynaldo Lopez’s elbow asplode, or keep stashing?

Justin Mason: I think you keep stashing for now.

smuckles: Why does Fangraphs hate Google Chrome users?

Justin Mason: I use Chrome and don’t have any issues.

Salty: Was there someone you were surprised didn’t get traded last week?  For me, it was Manzardo since he’s blocked at 1B and hitting well again at AAA, but maybe CLE couldn’t find the right fit.

Justin Mason: The Guardians don’t like moving cheap assets so that didn’t surprise me at all to be honest. To me it was surprising to not see Snell traded. He was coming off of his best start of the season and the Giants aren’t competing. I think Snell definitely opts out at the end of the season as well.

Cooper Criswell: 12 team points yepez, toglia or mountcastle ROS?

Justin Mason: Mountcastle

larry: everyone seems so down on springs after just one start. is it bc of the risk of post-TJ or are the rays really not going to let him pitch much this year?

Justin Mason: A bit of both. TJ returnees struggle with command and control which lowers the floor. Add in the fact the Rays aren’t likely competing here and that they tend to be more conservative.

Broken bat: Marciano has 7 strikeouts in 13 at bats. He hy are Giants forcing this now when a 7-3 next 10 games could get them close in WC? I mean it almost looks like no faith….

Justin Mason: The Giants need to see where they are at with Luciano to determine whether he can be a regular for them next year. I don’t think they expect to be in the race much longer this season.

Re: Tork: Genuinely curious – what dollar amount would you say is the cutoff for “dart throw”?

Justin Mason: $5 or less.

Tim: How concerning are the recent comments from Casas about still hurting when he swings? I’m feeling like this is shaping up as a lost season

Justin Mason: I think it is

larry: is luis robert a decent buy low candidate heading into the fantasy playoffs?

Justin Mason: Underlying contact skills are pretty brutal in the second half, but he still crushes the ball. Depends on how low you are buying.

Vince: Is Tyler Fitzgerald legit? Hitting the ball harder with more line drives but a near .400 BABIP.

Justin Mason: Underlying skills say this is mostly a hot streak that will fade

Ken: What are your mid-term outlooks on Burleson and Doyle? In other words, are you trusting what they’re doing/view them as big-value keepers, or still maintaining any skepticism about the next few years?

Justin Mason: I think Doyle is definitely someone I want as a keeper. Nothing in Burleson’s skills say this should fade, but I remain a little skeptical as the Cardinals haven’t wanted to commit to him previously, but I think they should.

Qane: For my last weekly rotation spot, 5×5, who would go with this week: Chris Sanchez (@LAD; @ARI), Tobias Myers (@CHW), Luis Ortiz (SD), Carson Spiers (@MIL)

Justin Mason: Sanchez

Guest: Should baseball be in the Olympics?

Justin Mason: Only if MLB will let their best players play.

Justin Mason: So yes

larry: in your opinion whos getting called up first? dominguez or caminero? are either worth a roster spot in a redraft league atm?

Justin Mason: I think Dominguez is first up, but Caminero is the one I would stash.

Insert Witty Name Here: Offseason podcast idea: take a random year in the past, say 1969 (nice) and do a mock draft with only printouts of team rosters. Then run the numbers. Obvi no technology since you can look up their stats.

Justin Mason: During the lock out and pandemic shut down, Tout ran some historical drafts which were very fun. I would be totally down to do this again if there was interest

Biscuit: Choose 3 starters from this group for this week: Bello(@KC), Houck(HOU), Pivetta(HOU), Fried(@COL), Singer(BOS), Spiers(@MIL)

Justin Mason: Houck, Singer, Pivetta

Biscuit: Ian Happ has been brutal 2H, now nursing a sore shoulder and has a short week. Would you replace with Polanco or Ward for the week?

Justin Mason: No problem going with Ward

Toonces: ROS, Herz, Arrighetti, Festa, Cobb. I can roster 2. Thank you Justin

Justin Mason: Festa and Cobb

Guest: At this point in the season, are you looking at season numbers, last 30 days, last 14 days, last 7 days when making marginal decisions?

Justin Mason: I usually go with 14 days

JSweetchuck: Time to cut Crawford in 10-team Dynasty?

Justin Mason: I think it is ok to drop

Tim: 14t H2H dynasty; figured I’d make a play for Carroll from the 10th place team. Is Josh Jung–Josh Lowe–Ryan Pepiot super far off?

Justin Mason: I don’t think it is

Terry loves tech: I’m hoping you win all your leagues so you can take your winnings and buy a new microphone. You’re so quiet on the pods compared to Paul it’s hard to calibrate the volume level. Would love to hear you better. Anyway, I appreciate your work on the site & pods.

Justin Mason: Is this on the youtube? for the pods on the site and iTunes, I normalize the volume.

Justin Mason: I will troubleshoot it today and see if I can fix it. Thank you for letting me know.

Brayan Rocchio: Lost Cause?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is a lost cause, but there just isn’t a lot of upside in his bat. He is mostly an accumulator.

Denny: Philosophical Q: Does it ever make sense (and is it fair) to “gift” value to teams for strategic purposes? I’m currently in first and was debating the merits of giving one of the mid-level teams a sweetheart deal so they can better compete against the two guys hot on my tail (ie. the guy in 6th can catch the guy in 2nd in one or two categories with some help). This of course assumes I can pull it off without cutting my own legs out.

Justin Mason: I absolutely love this type of approach. You don’t want to hurt yourself, but making deals that hurt your competition is well within the bounds of fairness and a very good strategy

McBoatface: Sticking with Gavin Stone? Could move on to Birdsong …

Justin Mason: I am ok moving on to Birdsong

Jason: KC closer situation.  How do you rank them?  Anyone likely to get more saves than others? (Harvey, Erceg, McArthur)

Justin Mason: If I had to bet, it is Erceg, but I think it is a fluid situation.

Insert Witty Name Here: How many fantasy analysts could Ben Joyce fight at one time? Did you see his muscles bulging after that 104.7 fastball?

Justin Mason: Really depends on which analysts because there are some pretty in shape guys in the industry and some really out of shape ones. I would think he could take on at least 2-3 at a time if not more though.

Justin Mason: Point awarded

Wyatt Langnerd: Potentially need a replacement for Wyatt Langford if his back keeps him out. Nootbaar, Kepler, Vargas, or Loperfido?

Justin Mason: Kepler

Vince: Is Hoffman out of the closing role in PHI entirely? Drop him for Erceg?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is out entirely, but I would drop him for Erceg

Trey: More satisfying…. sinking an eagle putt on a par 4, or knocking Paul out of playoffs in a H2H league?

Justin Mason: Knocking Paul out is always at the top of the list.

Justin Mason: Point awarded

Guest: Appreciate all the chats! Think Jeff Z. called Sears a No-brainer for this week with the 2-start. Is he referring to 15-teamers? I’m not sure he’s my best option

Justin Mason: I think he probably is. I love Sears and these are good matchups, but his command struggles can crush you in any matchup so there is always risk.

Close or closer?: Is Kopech the LAD’s closer now or in the future?

Justin Mason: Probably not

Guest: Is Alex Call really going to block Dylan Crews for long? Call or McCarthy in an NL-only?

Justin Mason: McCarthy

Justin Mason: I think Crews is up towards the end of August

Bob: Neto seems like the real deal, huh?

Justin Mason: I think he is. I was way too low on his upside.

OF Ranks: Sorry for another rank the players question, but what’s your ROS outlook/ordering for Mullins, Noot, O’Neill, Morel, Yepez?

Justin Mason: O’neill, Mullins, Morel Yepez, Nootbaar

Houzer: Could the Jays be looking at a salary dump trade this Winter with Bichette? Would love to see my Tigers take a shot on him

Justin Mason: I don’t think he’d be a salary dump but I do think they look to move him.

larry: would you drop springs for herz?

Justin Mason: Probably not

Trey: 12T redraft pts league…. drop Cowser for Robles?

Justin Mason: I wouldn’t but I have an undying love for Cowser

Idiotic Failson: Speaking of Musgrove, I picked him up super cheap in several places (dynasty). Do you think he’s still worth a roster spot once he comes of the IL?

Justin Mason: I think he should be, but I am watching his rehab starts very closely.

Guest: 20-team dynasty league: would you rather roll the dice on Triston McKenzie or Spencer Torkelson at this point?

Justin Mason: Tork

Adenolith: Any hope of Crochet being fantasy relevant come fantasy playoff time? I have the roster space, but wondering if I should get anything I can for him at this point. 4 innings (especially for the white sox) isn’t moving the needle.

Justin Mason: I think it may be tough. The White Sox have a lot of reasons to handle him very carefully down the stretch.

Barry: Gavin Williams or Schwellenbach ROS?

Justin Mason: Schwellenbach

Showbusiness77: Top-4 playoffs start today in my 10-tm H2H pts. I made it to top bracket. Only 5 adds. Do you like any of these batters for next two weeks: Lux, Wilyer, Yandy, Robles, Arenado, Masyn, Hoskins, Tovar, Rodgers, Busch. Over any of my lowest bats: JDMart, Miranda, Bellinger, Cowser, J. merrrill, Toglia? Also on the WW: Pham, Neto, Perdomo, Arcia. TY!

Justin Mason: Tovar over Toglia

Who to drop: Our league has an NA slot where you can put guys that are Not Active and for me right now that is Freeman. He’s supposed to be back tonight. Do I drop Mayo or Eloy? This wasn’t even a question a couple days ago but Mayo has looked BAAAAAD so far (they actually pinch-hit for him Saturday and pulled him for Urias yesterday) and Eloy is actually getting knocks. I know the answer is Eloy and give Mayo some more run but he just looked so overmatched in the couple PA I saw

Justin Mason: Drop Eloy. I am not giving up on Mayo after a few games.

Guest: Which Dback finishes with the most Saves ROS?

Justin Mason: Ryan Thompson

John: Pick 1 SP: Woo vs DET or R.Ray vs DET? 12 tm h2h pts

Justin Mason: Woo

JL: Deep keeper league—what is trout worth in a trade right now?

Justin Mason: Honestly, I have no idea. His name value is worth more than he is right now. I don’t know that he is truly a top 100 player anymore.

Farmer: [Keeper roto league] Going into the final 50 games, how do you know when a lead is enough to win the title? Obviously one tries to continue to improve their team up until the end, but would you trade a super keeper to add more pieces (knowing that it may have been unnecessary in hindsight).

Justin Mason: Spreadsheet out each category and take a look at your week to week gains and losses in each and see where you can be caught. I have seen a lot of leagues get lost in the last few weeks. I would rather win a championship and sacrifice the future some than lose it because I got too cute.

Harry Lime: How useful will Starling Marte be when he returns? Would you drop say a Tommy Pham or a Buxton for him?

Justin Mason: I don’t mind dropping Pham for Marte once he returns.

Merv: RP coinflip – start Chad Green (O’s, A’s) or Kyle Finnegan (SF, Angels) this week?

Justin Mason: Green

Gaussian Blur: Is Kevin Gaussman toast?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is toast, but he is definitely not a top tier starter anymore.

Harry Lime: Will Cano and Joyce get full time closer status?

Justin Mason: Joyce will. Cano is more iffy.

Justin Mason: Ok, I only have a few minutes left and a ton of questions, so I am going to speed round things a bit.

Showbusiness77: 2-week playoffs “Starting Now” 10-team H2H pts. Only 3 RP slots. Should I drop Devin Williams for any of: Bryan Hudson, Tanner Scott, Bryan Abreu, an ARI RP, Chad Green or Jeff Hoffman? Saves (+5) holds (+2), losses and Blown Saves both (-5). Other RPs are Yates/Hader and Mason Miller (SP eligible on IL).

Justin Mason: I wouldn’t drop Williams.

Idiotic Failson: Is Juan Yepez for real? I mean, he’s obviously not 148 wRC+ real, but could he be a useful fantasy keeper?

Justin Mason: I don’t know how much value he will have next year. I think he is a dart throw depending on what the Nationals do.

Martin: I have an option to trade Yelich to a team looking to the future, but I could really use him if he’s back by the playoffs in a month. You holding for the upside or cashing in for now? Possible packages for Yelich would be JD Martinez and Nico, or Will Smith (c), Bibee and E. Suarez.

Justin Mason: I would cash in now

Magic beans: Who has a better chance at redemption this year: Civale or J. Montgomery?

Justin Mason: Montgomery

Justin Mason: but I am not high on either

Jay Bee: Out of dumb luck I picked up Toglia early in the season. He now has 19HR in 153 AB, with twice as many HRs on the road than at Coors. 17% barrel rate and 52% hard-hit rate. Is this a profile for a keeper next year?

Justin Mason: He will always hit the ball hard, but the underlying contact skills will be a problem. It all comes down to what the Rockies will do long term. It is hard to trust that organization though

Guest: Wyatt Langford has a fastball problem. Can he correct it, or should we reluctantly adjust our sky high expectations closer to the ocean floor?

Justin Mason: I think he will be fine. Just growing pains from a guy that didn’t get a lot of minor league development.

Re:wells: Buying Wells enough to drop Bailey? I feel like Patrick is a better real life dude than fantasy dude…

Justin Mason: Yes

Mike Trout: 20 team, 28 man rosters, roto dynasty.  Recently traded Ethan Salas and Brady House for Trout.  Got way too many 3B.  Owned 4 catchers and too many keepers.  Couldn’t move either of my prospects to other teams.  I’m hoping to flip Trout next spring while he’s temporarily healthy and optimism is high.  Will I regret this trade?

Justin Mason: I don’t think you will overly regret it, but maybe a little.

South Sider: Kutter Crawford has a 9.60 ERA over his past three starts (Dodgers, Yankees, Rangers). Should we be worried as he’s now already matched his innings total from last year, or is this a blip against three good offenses?

Justin Mason: I am a bit worried that he is showing signs of fatigue. I would move on in shallower formats.

Nardi Gras: Is Bobby Miller a strong 2025 SP?

Justin Mason: I think he is a bounceback guy for sure with a full offseason to work things out.

Guest: Since you raised it, who is the most fit fantasy baseball analyst?

Justin Mason: Quite a few good options, but probably Corbin Young.

Justin Mason: I am sure I am forgetting someone obvious though

Ben Joyce: Am I the closer for the Halos next season?

Justin Mason: Yes

larry: would you move trea turner for santander if in need of power?

Justin Mason: I would try and get more back

Bibee: Is he making his start this week?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he does.

RP Stick: Have Daniel Hudson in a points league (holds = 3 pts, saves =10).  Cade Smith, Puk, Neris, bednar on the wire.  Worth a move to any of these guys?

Justin Mason: Bednar

Norby: When???

Justin Mason: I don’t know. Should already be up imo

McBoatface: Who do you like rest of season: Dansby or Noot? BA and OBP both.

Justin Mason: Dansby

oof help: You like Nootbaar of Friedle more in a shallowish points league?

Justin Mason: Friedl

Ed’s the man: Think Edman will play regularly and is worth a stash?

Justin Mason: Once he is healthy he will.

SS Dis or Dat: Tovar or Winn for some SS help in a points league?

Justin Mason: Tovar for this week because of Coors.

Justin Mason: I have to wrap up. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!