Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – August 28th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

PGB: Playoff week: prefer Dunning (at NYM) or J Wicks (at CIN)?

Justin Mason: I lean Dunning here. I really do like Wicks, but in Cincy is a scary spot to pitch for a young pitcher.

Chip: Is Ke’Bryan Hayes turning a corner? He’s looked awfully good lately.

Justin Mason: I think he is. Really good in zone contact and he has power and speed. Should be a nice rebound stretch for him. He has even started to lift the ball some which is exciting

Deek: Arraez, France or Tellez ROS in roto cats?

Justin Mason: Tellez

seth: what is your level of worry for the yankees shutting down judge sometime in september? debating a Vlad or TTurner for Judge+McMahon deal to make a run at HRs and RBIs

Justin Mason: I don’t think they would unless he got hurt again.

Cory: What to do about Mike Trout?  I’m in a 14 team H2H keeper league and can challenge for a title this year however I don’t see Trout coming back.  I also believe his best days are behind him.   Would you advocate moving Trout a year too early and see if I can get something to help the push this year or maintain my patience?

Justin Mason: Yeah, I don’t see a reason for the Angels to bring him back so I don’t have an issue moving him if it helps you win a title this year.

Hunter Goodman: Thoughts ROS and beyond? Seems like he’ll get consistent run at 1B

Justin Mason: He is a power only guy that has an atrocious hit tool. I would not roster him outside of NL Only

Big J: If you need volume, would you roll with Brandon Williamson 2x start of @SFG,CHC or does the single start of C.Sanchez vs LAA outweigh the risk?

Justin Mason: If you need wins and strikeouts, I think I go Williamson.

Guest: This seems crazy to ask, but at 14/38 now after struggling to open the season….can we have a 20/50 CJ Abrams in ‘24 or ‘25. He will be surprisingly close EOS!

Justin Mason: I think we can! I have been a big fan of his for a long time and he has even surpassed what I thought he would do this year. I don’t know if 20 home runs happens, but the 50 SBs with mid-teens homers is definitely in play.

RIP_Bray: Hey Justin – where would Y. Yamamoto rank as far as prospects if he were eligble? Top 10? 20?

Justin Mason: I think he is just outside the top 20 for me, but I could see him squeezing in there. So hard to know how guys are going to translate especially right away.

Cd: Paxton or Bryce Miller going into playoffs? Schedule is a little rough on Miller

Justin Mason: PAxton but it is close.

Kyle Harrison: Will the Giants let him go deep in games or will he be stuck with 3-4 inning outings during bullpen games?

Justin Mason: They will not.

Little by Littel: I know you were never as high on Littel as Paul. Is he even a team streamer in a deep league or just a cut? I’m running into a starts limit.

Justin Mason: Team streamer. I think there is just so little available in deeper leagues, he is a usable arm.

Wes: Is Riley Greene a cut in 12 teams? The past couple weeks have been rough.

Justin Mason: Yeah, I don’t mind moving on from him. The ceiling is just not that high with so little time in the season.

v2micca: Hearing more positive buzz regarding Wrights rehab starts.  Is he worth keeping an eye on for pitching depth down the stretch?

Justin Mason: Absolutely. With the lack of options on the wire, I don’t mind stashing him. Just know that if there’s a setback, we may not see him at all.

Slam the Door: Presley or Romano ROS in a saves only league?

Justin Mason: Romano

He’s the DJ: Traded Paxton for DJL (to replace Luis Urias) in AL OBP league. Reasonable?

Justin Mason: I think you overpaid.

B’ryce Hammer: Bryce Harper finally back to demi god status?

Justin Mason: Yeah, I think he is a first round pick in a lot of leagues next year.

Scott: Is Yainer Diaz a ROS solution at C?

Justin Mason: I think so. Playing time is the only question, but I think houston will continue to get him in.

Cd: Which C you rather have right now: Salvy, Will Contreras, or Raleigh?

Justin Mason: Sal

Guest: Heim hit a grand slam Sunday but otherwise has looked baaaad since coming off the IL. For the playoffs, stick with Heim or jump to waiver-available Cs Garver, Alvarez, Sanchez, Langoliers, or even Henry Goodman? 12 team H2H/OBP redraft league — thanks!

Justin Mason: Probably sticking with Heim.

Rickey: Hunter Goodman, how interested are you?

Justin Mason: Not at all really

B’ryce Hammer: Points league, playoffs next week. Pick one of C.J. Abrams, Royce Lewis, T. Story at ss? Leaning Abrams atm

Justin Mason: Abrams for sure.

Bello-Wolf: Dropped Bello for the Houston starts (though the first one went well). Pick back up for next week (TB and BAL)?

Justin Mason: Yeah, I think that is the play.

K-Pax: Paxton’s velo has been dropping. Granted his last two starts were tough opponents (HOU/LAD) but it has me worried for KC+TB going forward.

Justin Mason: definitely something to keep an eye on. Hasn’t thrown a ton of innings in recent seasons because of injuries, so if the velo doesn’t come back here, maybe it is time to look for other options.

Mike: Thoughts on Tork? Great small sample stretch or has he really figured things out?

Justin Mason: I think he has started to figure it out. Making really good contact in the zone while keeping the power. I think he is in the process of taking a big step forward.

Goober: Any indications Brandon Nimmo will break out of his 0-20?  Early fantasy playoffs here so tryna micro manage.

Justin Mason: Yeah,  I know it is frustrating, but he should be fine. 88% z-contact in the month of August with a really low BABIP the last week.

O’stradamus: Buehler gonna be any use in redraft leagues this year? Hunter Greene is on the wire in my league and thinking of making the swap

Justin Mason: I think Buehler comes back as a reliever. Probably not helpful in fantasy.

Colton: If Chapman is put on the IL with this finger issue, I’ll have to pick up a new 3B for the foreseeable future. I’m between HSK, Jorge Polanco, Hayes or Burger until him or Jung come back. Who’s your favorite?

Justin Mason: Hayes unless you need power and then it is Burger

Kyle: Would you ever consider doing a dual-chat with Paul? Would be fun to see both of your answers.

Justin Mason: I can ask him. That would be fun!

Guest: does “team streamer” mean someone you keep dropping between starts or someone you bench for most starts?

Justin Mason: Yes, it is a term for a guy that you don’t want to start every time, but shouldn’t be dropped.

B’ryce Hammer: Re. Tork… I started him over Vladdy Jr. last week on a hunch. Didn’t quite pay off…

Justin Mason: Yeah, can’t sit Vladdy

Cristian Javier: Will I be a reliable start again this season?

Justin Mason: Hard to say. Doesn’t look like it, but there is so much arm talent that you can’t really drop him outside of really shallow leagues.

Kevin: Is Hunter Greene a hold in my 9-teamer if I’m chasing QS? First two starts back from the IL have been bad.

Justin Mason: Got to take the good and the bad with Greene. I know he has been bad since returning, but he has a really nice schedule rest of the way. I would hold and pray.

Kevin: Yennier Cano the closer now or is it a committee?

Justin Mason: I think it is Cano’s job

Panik! At the Disco: My SPs have been meh on ERA/WHIP for a month now. Waiver offers likes of C Sanchez, Grayson R, Assad, Skubal, and Hunter Brown, who I rage-cut a week or two ago but looked good again yesterday. Any of those worth picking up over my Littell, Paxton, C Javier. (Also have Eury P, Eflin, Berrios, Bryce M, and Joe Ryan, so I could just bench the sucky ones and hope they come back better for the playoffs.) H2H, redraft, 12 teams.

Justin Mason: I think I would grab skubal and Brown for Littell and Javier personally.

BaltimOre’s: For this week, are starting Tellez – 5 games vs. righties including Wheeler and Nola – or Schneider – vsWAS and @COL. Could play both instead of M. Garcia (speed only play).

Justin Mason: I think I would sit Garcia.

Hank: Bench Ragans vs PIT or Luzardo vs TBR? (Also have Gilbert vs NYM and Burnes vs CHC but those are must starts IMO)

Justin Mason: Bench Luzardo. Ragans is legit.

Bill: with the new catcher/pitcher device to call pitches why do they not have expect from dugout do the calls. Some catcher are bad  pitch callers

Justin Mason: I think the rules prevent that but I am not entirely sure on that.

B’ryce Hammer: Something I struggle with in shallow team H2H’s (points league, obviously) is discerning whether to start mid level 2 start pitchers, or tough start studs. Got any rule of thumb to help with this? IN a ten team league depending on drafts and trades, I might wind up with a full rotation of studs, and then a couple guys like Bello (just an example that springs to mind right now)

Justin Mason: It often depends on what your team needs at this time of the year. In a situation where you are chasing wins and K’s, you might prioritize the two-start guys. In a league where you need ratio stabilization, you prioritize the one start guy that’s better. In spots where all things are equal (like a clean slate in a H2H league), I try and run some sort of weekly project for the players and my entire team to determine which is the best options. There isn’t an exact science either, but running weekly projections can be really helpful.

28 team keeper league: Brighter future? Gavin Stone, Mike Busch, or Miguel Vargas?

Justin Mason: In fantasy, Busch. In real life baseball, Vargas.

Jed: Sale vs Astros, Abbot vs Giants, Montgomery or Gray vs Mets?

Justin Mason: Montgomery

Adenolith: Playoff matchup starts for us this week. I’m a lower seed in a standard 8-team H2H Cat league so I’ll lose ties. Opponent is starting Framber, JV, Wheeler, Darvish, Kershaw, Giolito, Castillo, Keller, Assad with Romano at RP.

I have Ober, Bibee, Sale, Eury, Skubal, Paxton, Webb, Sandoval, Woo, Garrett with Raisel, Alzolay, Williams, Bednar, Munoz, and Y. Cano at closer.

Would you start just 2 or 3 closers to take the category and cross your fingers you don’t blow up and can compete in everything else then adjust when week 2 comes? Or just go hard on relievers from the start (I’ll have to pitch 2 starters so it’s probably Eury and Logan Webb), bank on Sv, ERA, WHIP, and pray you take 3 hitting cats too? It’s not normal for me to punt cats entirely, seems like I’m giving myself fewer outs, but I don’t have a lot of faith in my starters.

Justin Mason: Depends on how strong your hitters are. If you feel pretty good about taking enough hitting categories, then I would go strong relievers and just crush the ratios and saves. If you don’t feel as strongly about your offense, then go 2-3 relievers and try and see if you get lucky in wins and K’s

O’stradamus: Ruiz worth starting in 10 team leagues? Been hurting for steals since I lost wander

Justin Mason: Yeah, I think so. Beggars can’t be chosers

Jole: Kodai Senga vs SEA or Bobby Miller vs ARI, ATL?

Justin Mason: Senga

Justin Mason: Atlanta scares the crap out of me

Jed: Do you start Arraez over Encarnacion-Strand this week?

Justin Mason: Only if I need batting average

Adenolith: Regarding the pitching Q, our offenses are #1 & #2. It’s every even.

Justin Mason: I think I go 2-3 relivers then

Adenolith: Weekly lineups, are you starting Bichette or rolling with a guy like Royce Lewis?

Justin Mason: If Bichette is in the lineup today, then I roll with him.

Ian: 20 team dynasty 1 C slot- Francisco Alvarez or Yainer Diaz long term?

Justin Mason: Alvarez

arthur: would you hold onto will smith for upcoming h2h playoffs or jump ship to yanier diaz, garver or heim?

Justin Mason: Hold

arthur: any interest in brantley coming off the I.L?

Justin Mason: Not really. Brantley is the type of player that only really helps when he can accumulate. There is just not enough time left in the season

Colton: In my 8 team league, we currently have one guy at 12-8, four of us at 11-9, two at 10-10 and a guy at 4-16. There’s so much parity this week it’s exciting haha

Justin Mason: I think people think that fantasy baseball is boring at the end of the season because the season is so long, but a lot of us have a ton to play for. This is why I remind people to keep grinding out your leagues, anything can happen. I am literally tied with a guy for the last playoff spot in the Sleeper and the Bust H2H categories league. This is a big week!

HappyFunBall: Bryan Woo … the skills are tremendous but with an innings cap looming large I have trouble starting guys who I don’t think will go deep enough to earn a QS. Do you think he’s going to be allowed to approach 100 pitches in an outing at all the rest of the year?

Justin Mason: I think that is going to be really close, but I do. The Mariners are in a heated race and I think they will do what they need to in order to make the playoff/win the division.

billy: Shouldn’t Ohtani ‘s agent force him to get TJS now? It seems not worth putting off to play this season

Justin Mason: I think so, but I am sure they want to see if he can rehab so they can pitch to buyers in the off-season that he is good to do both right away. That rarely actually works, but it worked out for deGrom not getting surgery before free agency.

Ed: Specific question, but who would you rather have in a 12 team auction league for next year (roto): $9 Bobby Miller, $19 Yelich, or $4 Heim. I’m a big believer in Miller but not sure if the opportunity cost is too high

Justin Mason: I think I lean Yelich, but that Miller price is enticing because I am a big believer in him as well.

Justin Mason: I also think there is a chance that Miller is really hyped up in the off-season. So I don’t know that he is that affordable come draft day.

ha-seong him: hey justin, are bautista and musgrove both droppable in redraft? have to assume neither comes back this year

Justin Mason: I held Bautista this week just to see if we get any more info, but I dropped Musgrove weeks ago. I think Musgrove returns at some point, but it is likely as a four inning guy at best.

Colton: What’s your approach to people who deal in bad faith in a fantasy league?

Justin Mason: I don’t deal with them. If I think a person is a bad faith actor, I will tell them that I will not be trading with them in the future. I had an issue with a guy that years ago sent me an offer via text and I accepted it because I was busy and didn’t have the time to negotiate. He then tried renegotiate the terms because he thought my instant acceptance was a sign that he could bleed me more. I told him that not only would I not renegotiate, but not to offer me trades in the future. trading is like romantic relationships, if you screw over your partner, you will end up alone.

Dfan: Start Wicks this week against CIN? (if he gets the start)

Justin Mason: Outside of deep leagues, I am sitting him.

Trading draft picks: when will mlb add the ability to trade draft picks? I feel like it’s long overdue

Justin Mason: I don’t think it happens. They don’t want teams mortgaging their futures like that.

Insert Witty Name Here: if you think Riley Greene is okay to drop, is Meneses, DJ Stewart, or Kepler, or Hays a better option?

Justin Mason: I would take Kepler over him.

BaltimOre’s: Is it blasphemous to sit Ryan against TEX in order to start Lange? I have Hader and Iglesias. Kind of need to stay balanced in all categories. Have Kirby, Lynn, Abbott, Gausman, Woo, Strider, and Ragans.

Justin Mason: I don’t have a problem with that because of Texas’ scary lineup.

Justin Mason: I am out of questions… ask more!

Sam: Hey Justin, I’m in a daily 12 team roto league with 40 man rosters. It’s a 6×6 with saves and holds both as categories. It’s a dogfight at the top in both. How aggressively would you be comfortable churning roster spots to snag points on Mondays and Thursdays? Willing to drop a guy like Matt Brash for Colin Holderman to open up a roster spot to stream relief?

Justin Mason: Yeah, I love that strategy. I think people are too passive in grinding at the end of the season. As long as you aren’t dropping a stud, go for it.

Tim: Is Paxton a top 240 player next year if he stays healthy ROS?

Justin Mason: I think so. I just drafted him in a league as my SP6

Bill: why does KC start Batty over Velazquez, do they not want to see what Nelson Val. can do

Justin Mason: I have given up trying to figure out what KC wants to do. Makes zero sense to me

B’ryce Hammer: Ke’Bryan Hayes, CES, or Candelario at 3B in points H2H ROS?

Justin Mason: Hayes

burning question: I don’t know what to get for lunch today, any suggestions?

Justin Mason: Man, I love a good burrito. Al Pastor

Justin Mason: I am on a diet so I am have an egg white scramble… sigh…

Joe: is Rutschman worth a keeper slot? Assume 5×5 with put outs and assists as well. 12 team league, two keepers.

Justin Mason: I think he is.

Rickey: Do you think either Fraley or Cron come back this year? Is either (or both) droppable?

Justin Mason: It looks like Fraley is going to try and come back while hurt, but that isn’t super intriguing to me

Jed: let’s go back to my pitchers.  I need to start some of those guys – so let’s list sale, gray, montgomery, bassit, rodon, gore and abbott

Justin Mason: In order: Montgomery, Rodon, Sale, Bassitt, Gray, Gore

Bill: Do you have any surprising Nick Pollack facts to share?

Justin Mason: He does magic!

Joe: in a league with a start limit, is it better to save your streaming for the end of the season? Rotating in guys is getting me back to the top of my league, but in the end it’s all the same anyway

Justin Mason: I don’t think it is better to save starts. Go by what is the best matchups. The only caveat is that in some leagues you can start an unlimited amount of guys the day you past the limit. Always make sure you have a ton for that day in those formats.

BaltimOre’s: FWIW, Woo and Kirby had similar minor league profiles (i.e. IP). Kirby pitched into the 80’s in 3 of his 5 September starts.

Justin Mason: Thank you for pointing that out!

B’ryce Hammer: Losing faith in Doval, or just a rough patch?

Justin Mason: Just a rough patch

Brady Singer: I thought I had it figured out, last two starts were bummers. Am I a reliable starter in September?

Justin Mason: Nope. He is who he is. Until he finds a reliable third pitch, he will be volatile.

Phil: What’s the cost for Ragans going to be in a keeper league over the offseason? Would you trade Clase for him? 5×5 roto Svhld, QS

Justin Mason: It is going to be high, but I think Clase is too high

Jon: Schneider, CES or Noelvi Marte? I have Turner & Suarez so it would be hard to ever use Marte

Justin Mason: Marte for the speed.

Colton: Which Miller is your favorite Miller heading into next season, and which one is going to be the best Miller?

Justin Mason: Bobby

Colton: Thank you for that, it’s a bit of confirmation bias for me that I’m not the only one. I’ve also taken the approach of when they ask me for trade deals and who I’d want in return for someone I send them something egregious back because it’s frustrating how often it happens.

Justin Mason: I know we all want to win trade deals, but I would rather be able to make a lot of trades than just win one.Especially in leagues where you are going to be playing with people for years, there is no reason to screw people over.

RotoCop: 10 team dynasty- Please rank Kiriloff, Nolan Jones, Josh Outman, Josh Lowe, Thanks for all you do! Al Pastor yum

Justin Mason: Lowe, Outman, Jones, Kirilloff

Ed: If in need of more questions… Do you buy what HS Kim is doing as repeatable in the next couple years? As in decent average with 15 homers and 35+ steals. Grabbed him for $2 in June

Justin Mason: I think this is who I thought he could be when he came over. Some guys coming from Korea and Japan just need time to acclimate to being in a new country and new league. I totally buy him.

John: Michael King?  Being stretched to become a starter?

Justin Mason: I think this is more about the Yankees being out of many options

Curios: When will Lawler get his shot in 2024?

Justin Mason: I think in September he gets the call.

Guest: You have any concerns about Doval? Was racking up saves, first to 30, but then fell flat it seems..

Justin Mason: Nah, he should be fine.

Jon: Should I drop any of these guys for Edward Cabrera? Harrison, Zack Thompson or Pepiot

Justin Mason: Harrison in a redraft.

seth: pick 2 of BiBee @MIN, Greene @SFG, Lynn vARI, Cobb (vCIN, @SDP), Eflin @CLE

Justin Mason: Eflin and Lynn

Time Out: Is Zach Thompson ever going to pitch long enough to get a QS?

Justin Mason: Nope

Chip: Re: bad faith actors – in one of my leagues that guy is the commissioner. I told him at one point that I wouldn’t be trading with him and he chastised me saying that I wasn’t allowed to not trade with another manager. It was one of the silliest things I’ve had a fantasy baseball owner say to me, doubly bad coming from the commissioner.

Justin Mason: I would leave that league. Any commissioner acting like that shouldn’t be in charge.

B’ryce Hammer: Start Eury P @ Was over any of Burnes(@CHC)/Gilbert(@NYM)/Verlander (NYY) this week?

Justin Mason: That is tough because I love Eury, but no.

Northern Exposure: You feeling Morton in CO today and then @ the Dodgers later this week? Or staying away?

Justin Mason: I am staying away.

Justin Mason: Ok, out of questions again so I am going to wrap up. Thank you for chatting with me. please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Slapshot: Do you think it’s harder to put together a consistently elite offense or a consistently elite pitching staff in dynasty formats?

Justin Mason: Elite Pitching. Injuries are just too hard to predict.

Justin Mason: Thank you all for your questions!