Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – August 14th, 2023

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Just waiting on a few more questions and we will get rolling

Guest: Having trouble with deciding on catcher ROS. Who to go with, Alverez, Sanchez, Fermin, Garver or Davis, ROS rankings? They all have their issues, or playing time concerns.

Justin Mason: I think I am rolling with Fermin right now and then pivoting once he cools down. If you are looking to just stick with someone, I would say Alvarez.

Guest: Is Cristopher Sanchez going to the pen? The Athletic thinks so. But I am getting mixed messages elsewhere

Justin Mason: I think he could eventually, but I think right now he stays in for the immediate future.

Trea Turner: Why am I bad?

Justin Mason: I think you are turning it around. hitting .333 this month with two homers and a stolen base.

Tyler: What to do about Wander Franco?  Hold tight for now? Looks like he’ll be out at least for the next series.

Justin Mason: I think you hold right now, but if these rumors end up being true at all, he is done forever.

JC: Silseth out of the rotation when Canning returns or has he earned a spot?

Justin Mason: I think he has earned his spot. Canning can go to the pen

Yuniesky Betancourt: In the past decade, which prospect ended up becoming the most like their initial scouting report from their draft/signing year?

Justin Mason: Man, that is a good question. Maybe Corbin Carroll. Austin Riley is another

Casey Ryback: At this late stage in the season, are there any good waiver wire SS candidates for Wander, Bo, etc… replacements?

Justin Mason: It is really tough out there, especially in deeper leagues. Check to see if Story is out there first. I ended up just looking for guys that could replace a part of their lines. For instance, I grabbed Samad Taylor yesterday in a few leagues just for some cheap speed.

Pedro: Hi Justin.  Gregory Santos or Carlos Hernandez for ROS and for 2024?  Thanks in advance

Justin Mason: Santos

Yuniesky Betancourt: Who would win a race from 2nd base to home: Giancarlo Stanton or the fastest Fangraphs contributor?

Justin Mason: That is a really good question. If we are just talking on the fantasy side, I am going to say I am the fastest and I can beat him first to second but not second to home.

Justin Mason: Can’t wait for my coworkers to yell at me that they are faster than me, but lets take it to the field.

Taillon: Just when I thought he was turning his season around, he goes out and does that… I will still buy all his shares for next season

Justin Mason: Me too. The underlying numbers say he should be better.

Calvin: Any sneaky, low ownership suggestions for raising OBP at any position in the last several weeks of the season? Thinking Lamonte Wade types.

Justin Mason: Candelario, Outman, McCormick, Tauchman, Julien, Flores are all top 25 in OBP in the second half.

JC: Which of the young hurlers are you most excited about next season from fantasy perspective? (Bobby Miller, Taj Bradley, BiBee, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, etc)

Justin Mason: Gavin Williams, Eury Perez, and Andrew Abbott. Really like all of these guys long term though. Probably the least high on Bradley

Justin Mason: And scared of the Woo injury.

NextDoor: Thoughts on C Correa turning things around as of late?

Justin Mason: Underlying numbers in the second half are encouraging. 91.4% Z-contact in the second half and hitting the ball hard.

JC: Ryan Mountcastle has been hot since he came off the IL. I guess vertigo was the issue for his suppressed fantasy production in the first half of the year. What is your outlook of Mountcastle from dynasty league perspective?

Justin Mason: I really think he needs a trade in the offseason. The park hurts him some but the bigger issue is the talent coming up that could hurt his playing time. If he gets moved, I will be more excited.

ColoRADo: What’s your long-term take on Jordan Walker? With Arenado staying in STL, looks like Walker will find long term homes in the OF/DH slots. His K% is still a big concern & there’s just no glimpse of hope right now.

Justin Mason: Prospect growth isn’t linear. I think he will ultimately be pretty good, but I worry that he will never reach the ceiling of a top tier prospect.

KC Pain: Thoughts on the Tigers Carpenter?  Is he for real?

Justin Mason: I think he is. Hits the ball hard and makes above average zone contact. He isn’t a star, but a really nice OF 3-4

Mustin Jason: RE> Franco. CJ Abrams was on the wire in my league…

Justin Mason: Abrams should be rostered in every format.

JC: Who are your biggest disappointments this season from fantasy baseball perspective?

Justin Mason: I think it has to be Trea Turner from the hitting side and Alek Manoah from the pitching side. Especially when you exclude injuries. Manoah’s fall off is unbelievable.

Rebuilding: Who are some set-up men that you think could be closers next year?

Justin Mason: Scott Barlow, Tanner Scott, Joel Payamps

Randy Choate: When you want to be a bad boy and get down on some real shitty ass food, what’s your go-to meal? I’m talkin zero nutritional value & causes havoc in your bowels for days afterwards.

Justin Mason: Taco Bell or In and Out

JC: How soon do you think we will see Pete Crow Armstrong in the majors? Especially with Bellinger becoming a free agent after the season and Suzuki not hitting, do you see him coming up September or becoming a starter out of spring training?

Justin Mason: I think he is in the conversation next year. With roster expansion being smaller than it used to be, it seems unlikely he is up in September.

Warren: 6 keeper years to allot across this group (max 2 per player, all FA pickups so forfeit a last round pick): Jung, Casas, A Abbott, Bobby Miller, Matt McLain…what say you?

Justin Mason: Jung and Abbott

Carmine: Do you think Taj Bradley is back up at some point this season, and if so, when?

Justin Mason: Considering what they are running out there right now, if he is not up right now, he may not be back.

Felipe Alou: Have room for one of Quintana, Scholtens, Sandoval, or Schmidt in a ten team head to head…any thoughts? Thanks

Justin Mason: Quintana

Alan Grofield: In a 12 team league, 5×5 (ops instead of avg). We offer keepers 1 pitcher, 1 hitter, with a 2 round draft penalty. A trade recently had our league in an uproar due to the first place team trading Spencer Strider (a 4th next year) and Randy Arozarena (a 7th next year) for Ohtani (to the last place team). Does this seem like a fair trade? Or was the first place guy trying to pick a pocket with these?

Justin Mason: If Ohtani is a hitter and a pitcher that can be kept, I get the trade in a daily lineups league. Fair is in the eye of the beholder.

Dubs: Most saves ROS: Foley or Ottovino?

Justin Mason: Ottavino

DetroitBeisbolKats: Any hope for Matt Manning?  Guy doesnt seem to throw as hard anymore, doesnt K anyone, and just barely gets through games.

Justin Mason: I think there is hope he is a mediocre MLB pitcher, but he is never reaching the heights of his prospect pedigree.

Ryan: Thanks Justin for doing this – very helpful.  Please rank in order streamers for tomorrow (D. Hudson-Stl, B Falther-Pit, D Peterson-NYM).

Justin Mason: Hudson, Falter, Peterson.

Chazz Jissom: Singer at the Nootbaar – that you? If so, good team but not good enough

Justin Mason: That is me! I’m coming for you!

DetroitBeisbolKats: What kind of statline is Riley Greene’s ceiling?

Justin Mason: 25/10 .280.

rick: has gavin williams turned a corner these past few starts? Ks seemed lower than expected prior to the past 2

Justin Mason: I think he has. There will be bumps along the way, but of the big prospect pitchers we have seen, he is among my favorite. I think the stuff is legit and the K’s will come.

Heim Time!: Jason, thanks for the chat.  Down the wire here, am I safe betting on Jonah Heim as my every day catcher rest of way?

Justin Mason: Safe? Probably not. He could reaggravate the injury at any time and be done for the season, but he was the #1 catcher this year before getting hurt so the upside is immense.

Rebuilding: Rank the following spec stashes in terms of potential next year value (5×5 roto, 10 team): Sanchez, Silseth, Olson, Medina, Hancock

Justin Mason: Sanchez, Hancock, Medina, Silseth, Olson

rick: a few disappointing starts for eury perez out of the gate 🙁

Justin Mason: Yeah, I am not overly worried though. I am continuing to roll with him after this week. I am sitting him versus the Dodgers.

Cant keep everyone: Standard 10-team, 5×5 auction, keepers: Munoz or Santos; J.Walker or K.Carpenter; Ruiz or Y.Diaz; Bryce Miller, M.Keller? All are cheap contracts.

Justin Mason: Munoz, Walker, Ruiz, Miller

rick: how would you rank grayson, paxton, skubal and braxton garrett for the stretch run? more so picking the matchups? h2h league with W, K, ERA, WHIP

Justin Mason: Garrett, Paxton Grayson, Skubal

OBP ROS rank?: I.Happ, T.O’Neill, K.Carpenter, T.Estrada, G.Springer

Justin Mason: Springer, Estrada, Carpenter, Happ, O’Neill

Chip: I’m starting to believe that if you don’t land a no doubt ace in your draft or auction (especially for dynasty games) then there is so much variability in SP that you can kind of try to find some decent filler and fill your rotation through the year. Am I wrong?

Justin Mason: Yes and no. It depends on how good you are at drafting the middle rounds. If you land on the really good guys that bump up tiers than it can work out, but you can also just be so far below the pack it prevents you from catching up.

MF Luder: In a vacuum who do you prefer ROS; Rodon or Skubal?

Justin Mason: Rodon

Reds: Between all the callups this year, who do you like best ROS (not named Elly)?

Justin Mason: Give me Zack Gelof on the hitting side and Andrew Abbott on the pitching side.

Bake: What are your expectations for Cj Abrams for next year? 20/30?

Justin Mason: 15/45. Dude has been unreal this year.

Mookie no. 1: Please rank for rest of year: S Suzuki, Pham, Tauchman.  Thank you.

Justin Mason: Suzuki, Tauchman, Pham

DaMets: Any thoughts on if Mauricio is up this year? Seems like a no brainer given they’re out of the hunt, but no word

Justin Mason: I think so. By the end of the week, we should see an influx of prospects coming up because they can retain their rookie eligibility going into next season.

lunch: Don’t look now, but Ke’bryan Hayes changed his mechanics and…. *whisper* he’s raising his launch angle

Justin Mason: OMG it’s happening .GIF

rick: would you take the likes of a stroman, braxton garrett or paxton over berrios in a shallow h2h league? berrios era estimators are a bit scary. he seems like a ticking time bomb about to explode in the playoffs

Justin Mason: I would take Garrett and Paxton

Jrock: Any idea when Victor Scott II will get a fangraphs rating?  I’d have to assume he’d be a 45+ or a 50.  But, wondering if you have an idea what the delay is?  Thanks.

Justin Mason: Probably the offseason. They don’t always post those when they are not in the orgs top 30-40 at the start of the season.

Guest: 12 team roto 5 category OBP, SLG, Steals, RBI, Runs, … need LF help which 2 do I keep for ROS, Tauchman, Pham, O Neil and Soler?

Justin Mason: Soler, and O’Neill

Matt: Will Machado be good next year? Trying to decide whether to keep him in dynasty or Woodruff.

Justin Mason: I think I lean Machado here because bats are more stable health-wise.

Tim: I’m in 14t H2H dynasty, hitting is standard + BB and TB; I have Marsh on IL; i like how he’s been chasing less and making harder contact this year…when he comes off, is he any better long term than Johan Rojas or Jake Bauers? One of the three will likely need to go, and while I can use SB more than HR, I don’t want to get rid of the best guy

Justin Mason: He absolutely is better than Rojas and Bauers. Made improvements and still plays great defense to keep him in the lineup when he struggles.

Tim: Reese Olson’s FiP and xFiP suggest at least a streamer, his xERA suggests WW. Where do you see him ultimately falling?

Justin Mason: I think he is a streamer in good matchups. I don’t think he is better than an end of rotation guy.

I am a seller: OttoNeu H2H.  I am a seller, and have Judge and Soto.  Both maybe 2024 keeper depending on owner philosophy.  I AM comfortable keeping.  Been offered a number of 3:1 for no better than Mead quality.  Usually less.  I am asking 1:1 for quality lower salaried, young ‘uns of pedigree.  Getting widely criticized by contenders who, of course, want to trade 3 shiny new quarters for my old silver dollar.  And, I offer salary offset.  Do you agree with my stand?  thx

Justin Mason: Absolutely. I hate the multiple trash pieces for a treasure offer. Hold your ground.

Guest: OF is rough. Who do you like best in a 12-Team 5X5 Roto League among Brandon Nimmo, Leody Taveras, Stuart Fairchild, J.P. Martinez, Will Benson,  Ramon Laureano, and Brain de la Cruz. Or other OF who might be on the wire in this League type.

Justin Mason: I prefer De La Cruz, but Benson has the most upside. Nimmo is the safest. Depends on what you are looking for but Benson is the guy that could go crazy in the short term.

Chip: Is this version of Ha-seong Kim for real? Like, is he a viable SS on a championship fantasy team?

Justin Mason: I think he is. This is what we thought he would be when he came from Korea and now he is doing it. Sometimes guys just need an adjustment period.

RH: Campusano seems to be healthy now….how do you like him as a catcher for 12 team dynasty going forward?

Justin Mason: I literally picked him up in my main yesterday. I think he is a nice C2 rest of the way.

In the Cards: RoS and next, 5×5: Nootbar or J.Walker?

Justin Mason: Nootbaar

MF Luder: Do you see Royce Lewis having any relevance when he returns?

Justin Mason: If he can stay healthy, he could be a nice pickup for the rest of the way. I question that ability though.

It’s a FIRE…sale: I’m in a QS league and Sale is available. Do you think he’s worth picking up? I’d have to drop either Sanchez or Braxton for him…

Justin Mason: I would drop Sanchez for him.

Teo: Any good RP recs if all I care about are ERA and WHIP?

Justin Mason: I was targeting Manaea yesterday because he has pitched well as a bulk guy out of the pen and can get K’s and sneaky wins. Griffin Jax has pitched well recently and Joel Pampays has been great.

Big Arm Strategy: AL Only, H2H, punting saves, and going with RP/SP’s Schmidt, Silseth, Crawford, Brash, and Brown as my bullpen….need to cut two of the following SPs…(Medina, Detmers, Canning, or Ryu) to support Gilbert, Bello, and Cease.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Canning and Ryu

Murph: Standard 12 team roto. Keep one for the next two years: Eury, Kirby, or Luis Castillo. Thanks

Justin Mason: Castillo

Guest: 12t Yahoo h2h Cat. Best two hitters Verdugo, Hayes, Kwan, L. Gurriel or McNiel

Justin Mason: Kwan and Hayes

Danny Pie: Thoughts on Torkelson? His savant profile is very red.

Justin Mason: Everything looks good under the hood. I think he is getting some bad BABIP luck and should be pretty good down the stretch. I wrote him up a few weeks ago as a buy low. Might do it again.

Colton: Just wanted to say I’m glad you’re feeling better this week!

Justin Mason: Thanks! Last week was pretty brutal but I am back to the grind

Justin Mason: I am out of questions and I have a few more minutes if anyone wants to ask anything…

Colton: Kinda funny how the Padres went from arguably the worst catcher in the league to having two legitimate contributors isn’t it?

Justin Mason: Some of their pitchers must have really liked Nola because he should have been gone a while ago.

Chip: Not fantasy baseball related, but do you think Cashman is on the very hot seat?

Justin Mason: Probably not. They give him way too much rope.

Drop: Need to drop two of Renfroe, Frelick, Carpenter, Duran for some pitching. Who do I cut loose? (I need HRs and SBs)

Justin Mason: Renfroe and Frelick

Pitcher: Hello. Need wins and K’s this week. Would you start Eflin, Senga, or Maeda….or go 2 start with Bobby Miller?  Thanks for help!

Justin Mason: Eflin

Colton: Also, a bit curious to hear why you’re such a fan of Abbott? I’m not touching him with a 10 foot poll right now but I am open to having my mind changed on that lol

Justin Mason: He has a full arsenal and a lot of strikeout upside. Has done a good job at keeping the homers in the park in Cincy which is no small task.

It’s a FIRE…sale: Do you actually believe in Ke’Bryan Hayes this time? I’ve been burned twice this year but he is available…

Justin Mason: I am like Charlie Brown with him. I will keep falling for it. The skills are so loud it is hard not to.

Danny Pie: Will Jonathan Aranda ever get a chance to play fulltime in Tampa? That bat is ready to be unleashed.

Justin Mason: Doesn’t feel like it unfortunately. I wish they would trade him.

Guest: I might ditch Teoscar for the stretch run for someone who’s been better lately like Will Benson. Will I regret it?

Justin Mason: You could. There is a ton of talent in the bat but the streakiness is killer.

How’d I do?: Too far behind in saves so I sold my closers for other help (hitting mostly)
Giolito/Kenley for B Reynolds/Bibee
&
Phillips for Steer
How’d I do?

Justin Mason: I like those moves.

Guest: Pena or Story this week

Justin Mason: Story

Justin Mason: Thanks for chatting with me everyone. Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!