Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – April 3rd, 2023

8:43

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour as long as we have enough questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

9:00	Ed: Who broke Juan Soto? And are you high on O-Hoppe?

9:01	Justin Mason: Soto will be fine. O’Hoppe is really interesting. I definitely want to see him hit against a team that isn’t full of minor leaguers, but he should be rostered in all 2-catcher formats and probably in most12-team one catcher formats.

9:01	Bruce Live: Shuster gets the Padres next, probably a Sit. Would you actually drop for Megill ? 12T Mix Roto

9:02	Justin Mason: I am pretty skeptical of Megill because he just didn’t look right in spring training, but I can understand making that move.

9:02	Kyle: Best fantasy dynasty catchers ranked in H2H Cat league for 2023 and beyond: G. Moreno, O’Hoppe, K. Ruiz

9:02	Justin Mason: I think that is the right order.

9:02	J: Is Baty a pickup if the cost is zero? 5 bench spots in my league

9:03	Justin Mason: I think I would because he should be up pretty quickly. It is hard to hold onto a stash with that short of a bench though

9:03	Matt: Personal moral judgements aside, could you foresee a team-in-need offering Bauer a contract mid season? Seems like teams wouldn’t want to deal with the headache, but the talent is so great, makes you wonder when a team might change their tune.

9:03	Justin Mason: I don’t think he comes back this season.

9:03	Guest: 10 team h2h league – outman or friedl

9:03	Justin Mason: Friedl for me, but I really like Outman

9:03	Kevin: I bid a fair amount on Puk last night. Do you think he runs away with the job? Sounds like the team wants to give him the opportunity and he has the talent.

9:04	Justin Mason: I do think the job is his moving forward. He is clearly the best arm in that bullpen.

9:04	Albert’s Belle: Likelihood of a Curtis Mead early call-up?

9:05	Justin Mason: I think he is up sometime before memorial day, but it is so hard to read the Rays. The fact they were negotiating a long term deal with him prior to the start of the season is a good sign to me.

9:05	Mrs. Featherbottom: What is your read on Arizona’s closer situation? How do you feel about McGough?

9:06	Justin Mason: This seems like a committee. It probably should be McGough, but I think it gets split among 3-4 guys at least early on.

9:06	Kyle: Can B. Donovan sustain his power?

9:07	Justin Mason: I absolutely do. This power surge is based on work he did in the offseason and isn’t out of no where.

9:07	Overreaction nation: Should I drop Bichette in my AL only? No homers so far?!?!?!!?

9:08	Justin Mason: Please stop

9:09

Somewhere Near OPACY: This early in the season how much do you ride a hot (or mediocre) bat versus wait for your regulars to heat up. I need to pick 2 of Vinnie P., Tellez, Vargas, and Garver for my line-up this week. Leaning Vinnie P. and Vargas. Hopefully by next week it won’t matter since Vargas will get MI eligibility and Garver will one-day get C eligibility.

9:11	Justin Mason: I kind of pick and choose based on matchups. I think I am rolling with Garver over Tellez this week.

9:11	Overreaction nation: What in the actual F are the Twins doing with Nick Gordon pulling him early? Think the ankle still needs nursing?

9:11	Justin Mason: Yeah, have to wonder if he is still ailing a little. He is on the field which is a good sign but something to monitor.

9:11	JP: Meg assigns you to give the scouting report and description on Paul Sporer, how does he rate as an up and coming writer and fantasy baseball performer?

9:14	Justin Mason: 80 grade analyst. Has great feel for articles. Good potential in podcasts but is sometimes carried by his co-host. Poor mechanics in drafts that need to be cleaned up to be a polished player. High upside, but still needs development.

9:14	Max: Thoughts on Seth Lugo after his surprisingly solid first start with the Padres?

9:15

Justin Mason: I haven’t sat down to watch the start yet, but I am very intrigued. Dude went seven innings which was my biggest fear that moving from a reliever to a starter meant he wouldn’t go deep especially early on. I would grab him where available because the stuff has never really been in question.

9:16	Rich: Is it just me or does Jazz Chisolm look like he has no idea how to play CF. Any chance he moves to a corner of and Bryan De LA Cruz moves to CF, or back to 2nd and Arrez to DH?

9:16	Justin Mason: I have no idea what the Marlins are doing with this one. They never should have moved him out there in my opinion. They probably stick with it for now, but I would move him back to 2B

9:17	Kopech: You’re a kopech guy, and a giants guy. What the heck is going to happen today. Can’t help but feel he will go 6 innings 0 earned runs, or 1.2 innings with 6 earned lol. Nothing in between.

9:17	Justin Mason: The Giants are really struggling offensively and I think Kopech mows them down.

9:17	Kopech: Thinking about breaking down and buying MLB TV looking at Detmers vs Kirby tonight 👀

9:17	Justin Mason: This is going to be must watch TV!

9:17	Zach: What, if anything, can we expect from Soroka this year?

9:18	Justin Mason: I am not expecting anything. They have shown they are going to be extremely careful with him. He also needs volume in order to be fantasy relevant and I just don’t see him getting volume.

9:18	Jason: Thanks for chatting, Justin! In a 14tm standard H2H league, ceiling-hunting SPs with my last bench spot. Do you like M.Perez, Bradish, Pfaadt, Eflin, T. Walker, Shuster, or M. Keller best?

9:19	Justin Mason: Eflin for me.

9:19	GB: Is the start of the Trent Grisham comeback tour?

9:20	Justin Mason: It is a nice start, but I need to see more. Maybe pick him up just in case.

9:20	John: Anyone’s performance catching your eye this early? Good or bad?

9:22

Justin Mason: I am not really overly concerned with performance this early unless it comes with actionable news: velocity dips, injury, role change, lineup change. I think the only real players to worry about are guys with shaky roles to begin with that are struggling or that are hot, for instance Nolan Gorman starting out hot and looking like he’s made an approach change is really interesting to me.

9:23	Bill: What would your leash be like on a Guy like Cal Raleigh in an AL only league if he starts struggling hard when there are guys like Langaliers. Garver, Heim, Haase. I know Cal is better, but waiting too long can kill you.

9:24	Justin Mason: I usually don’t want to overreact in the first couple of weeks. I would start getting worried at the end of this week if there are reasonable options like this available.

9:24

todd: Advice on how to approach a team/season where you don’t have high end pitching? I had to keep 5 hitters in an al only, was too late for DeGrom, Rodon, Gilbert in the first round and ended up with Rasmussen as my best pitcher starter.

Better to be risky and chase upside or just stay vanilla and hope to finish mid pack and let offense carry the day?

9:26	Justin Mason: I don’t like risking things too early. Boring often wins the day anyhow even though we always are looking for upside. You will probably be fine.

9:26	Biscuit: Grissom is already mashing in Gwinnet, how long does he toil down there?

9:26	Justin Mason: Until the defense is passable?

9:26	BrandonMcKayDylanWalsh: These Monday morning chats are such a help…thanks for doing them. Can you rank Andrew Vaughn, Jose Siri & Oscar Colas?

9:26	Justin Mason: Vaughn, Colas, Siri

9:26	Anonymous: It’s gross, but… is Aroldis Chapman possibly the closer in KC?

9:27	Justin Mason: I don’t think so, but it was pretty intriguing to see him throwing like he used to. I dropped him for Will Smith in my m

9:27	Justin Mason: ain event, so I am waiting for that to blow up in my face

9:28	Insert Witty Name Here: Any reason to believe in Gallo? Has he made any changes that you know of where he can make more contact?

9:30

Justin Mason: So far he is not really doing that much to make me think that much has changed. He still has a 36% strikeout rate. Now the underlying numbers are a little better with a 78% z-contact which is still below average but better than we have seen from him recently. I think it is still too early to tell, but maybe he is worth a stash to see if he can turn back into a usable player

9:31	Matt: Should I start M. Kelly, C. Bassitt, or Fujinami this week, or just role with a McHugh or Jax?

9:31	Justin Mason: Ugh, I am probably going with Jax

9:31	Bill James, Pet Detective: Need to add a starter – would you rather dump Lourdes or Myers? 10 team Roto league with OPS with 5 OF spots

9:32	Justin Mason: I would drop Gurriel

9:32	Guest: 15 team 5×5 OPS instead of Avg, please rank, K Carpenter, Weimer, or Larnach?

9:32	Justin Mason: Larnach, Carpenter, Wiemer

9:32	Bill: Don’t forget Paul Sporers birthday! You need to get with Rotowear and have a shirt made with him riding on a sea otter reading his diary with a poem he wrote about Kyle Gibson.

9:33	Justin Mason: His birthday is in October so I got time.

9:33	Josiah Gray: Should I be dropped for any of these guys: Lugo, Brito, Gore, Wood, Disco?

9:33	Justin Mason: I don’t mind dropping him for Gore or Lugo

9:33	Bill: Kutter Crawford vs the pirates, you in?

9:33	Justin Mason: I am!

9:33	Barny: Do you prefer William Contreras or Tyler Stephenson in a one catcher league?

9:33	Justin Mason: I prefer Stephenson because I think he gets better volume.

9:34	PitchMets: What do you put more weight on in determining how good a pitcher really is? The new Stuff+, Pitching+ metrics or FIP, xFIP, SIERRA?

9:36

Justin Mason: I look at all of it. If I was only looking at one, it is Stuff+. I don’t think that gives you an entire view of the picture though so it is important to look at all of those as well as things like contact/swing rates, exit velocities, pitch velocities, etc. Also, watching the games is the most important thing. There is so much that goes into pitching which is what makes it fun and infuriating.

9:36	Cedric Mullins: This is all for you, Big J!

9:36	Justin Mason: You’re my boy!!!

9:36	Buster Posey: Manaea was stretched out to be a SP in spring training. Are the giants just managing the early schedule? Or will there really be a six man rotation?

9:37	Justin Mason: I think they are managing things early. They will run with a six man for right now, but that will only work while everyone is healthy which shouldn’t last long for this group.

9:37	Guest: Who’s up sooner – Matt Mervis or Vaughn Grissom

9:37	Justin Mason: Mervis

9:37	Matt: Need to pick two of Soler, Gallo, and Canha for the week. Who stays on the bench?

9:38	Justin Mason: Bench Gallo

9:38	SPNeedy: Thanks for the chats! Shallow H2H Points league (w/QS). Can you rank these guys: E. Rodriguez, Clevinger, Kopech, Syndergaard, Quantrill?

9:38	Justin Mason: Kopech, Eduardo Rodriguez, Quantrill, Clevinger, Syndergaard

9:39	Bill: Do you think Pressly is actually “sick”? Or are they covering up another issue

9:39	Justin Mason: I don’t think there is any reason to believe there is a different reason yet, but I am definitely a little worried.

9:39	Bill: First big orioles prospect to debut? Grayson? Westburg? DL hall?

9:39	Justin Mason: Grayson should be back pretty quickly.

9:40	Phil: Throwing out Megill’s spring training and based on his 1st start, would you drop Megill for Clevinger or Lugo (Lugo may have Atlanta next)?

9:40	Justin Mason: I would for Clevinger

9:40	Forza: Quick two-parter! Do you see Ron Marinaccio as a Jason Adam-type for Yanks? What is your ceiling for Cal Raleigh this year?

9:42	Justin Mason: I really like Marinccio as a holds guy that could find himself in high leverage if something happens to Holmes. I talked about him with Sami from the Catcher Corner podcast early in draft season and he sold me on him.

9:42	Justin Mason: Raleigh could be a 30+ homer guy in a great lineup.

9:42	Anonymous: Sure seems like the biggest winners of the SB changes are the already-high SB guys

9:44	Justin Mason: So far that definitely looks like the trend, though they are just more overall stolen bases. 70-29 over the first four days versus last season is what Paul Sporer sent me last night.

9:44	Doug: Assume Brito is back once yanks need a 5th starter? What’s his value ROS assuming Severino is toast

9:45	Justin Mason: I think he is back in 10 days, but he was really impressive against my Giants. I think he is a sneaky stash if you have room on your bench.

9:45	Phil: Can Nolan Gorman carve out a full time DH role or is he destined for platooning this year? Trying to assess if he’s worth a 12 team spot. Thanks

9:46	Justin Mason: I think he is likely to platoon unless he forces the issue or someone (probably needs to be more than one player) gets hurt. I think there is a lot of risk but a really high upside here.

9:47	Matthew: IL spots already filled with Seiya, Verlander and Glasnow. Too early to drop Bard with how he looked in WBC?

9:47	Justin Mason: I think you can drop him with that roster crunch.

9:47	Joe: 12 team obp. Tyler Stephenson (and his soon 1b eligibility) is on the wire. Drop K. Ruiz, or Nootbar. OF depth is currently solid.

9:47	Justin Mason: I don’t mind dropping Ruiz

9:47	Defense doesn’t matter: Is Hall good enough to hold down 1b in Philly? Are there other options there?

9:48	Justin Mason: I think he gets to hold the job for a little while. Unless they bring someone else in, they just don’t have a lot to turn to.

9:48	RTJ: Deep AL-only league, trying to figure out my last OF starter this week: Kiermaier or Pollock?

9:48	Justin Mason: Pollock

9:48	Bill: When do you see the mariners calling up Bryce Miller? Kirby skipped over AAA last year, so I think he might be up if there is an injury to the mariners rotation before ray can make it back?

9:49	Justin Mason: I don’t think so, but they don’t have a ton of intriguing options that are ready.

9:49	yeah: who is more attractive – mike trout or hunter renfroe

9:49	Justin Mason: That opening day catch from Renfroe made me blush, but it is still Trout lol

9:49	Guest: Is Mike clevinger back. Velocity on the fastball seemed to be in line with few years back

9:49	Justin Mason: I am not ready to say he is back, but he has my attention.

9:50	Guest: Is justin steele the real deal ? Is he 10 team worthy ? Seems like he has great pitch mix and had a great 2nd half last year

9:50	Justin Mason: I am still pretty skeptical on him but this was an amazing first start and I think he should be rostered in pretty much all formats.

9:50	RGM: Drop Jorge Lopez for Scott McGough?

9:50	Justin Mason: Not yet

9:50	Anonymous: Drey Jameson as a de facto Follower guy has me interested. Swallow the walks for the Win snipes or just play it straight with a normal RP?

9:51	Justin Mason: I don’t mind that play early on as guys in the rotation build up.

9:51	Matt W.: Which reliever this week for an NFBC team? Graveman, Chafin or Neris

9:51	Justin Mason: Chafin

9:51	Tungsten Arm O’Doyle: How long of a time before you cut some of your back-of-the-draft guys loose? Thinking of fliers such as Ha-Seong Kim or Esteury Ruiz. Neither I’m going to drop without a better replacement, but how long do you typically take before you say “this is who they are” and cut loose?

9:52	Justin Mason: Guys in the back third of your draft are cuttable whenever you think but I am not making determination on guys as “this is who they are” for a couple of weeks. Need the stats to stabilize a little.

9:52	Bill: more likely to hit 50 bombs this year, Buxton or Gallo?

9:53	Justin Mason: Gallo, but both are unlikely.

9:53	Justin Mason: I only have about 6-7 minutes left so I am going to do a speed round!

9:53	Steve: 10 man h2h league. Would you cut J. Mccarthy for any of these guys: Duvall, Friedl, Outman?

9:53	Justin Mason: Not yet

9:53	CJ: What are your thoughts on Clevinger’s first start w/ increased velo? Would you prefer him over guys like Gore, Grove, and Bradish in a 14 team mixed roto?

9:53	Justin Mason: Prefer Gore and Bradish

9:53	Mr Smithers: Would this be an ideal time to sell high on Mateo to a SB needy team? (Not that there are as many SB needy teams this year as there were in previous years, sheesh)

9:54	Justin Mason: Absolutely. The skills are still not good lol

9:54	The Dude: Brandon Belt, Healthy?????????

9:54	Justin Mason: Probably not

9:54	Martin: Larnach or Gallo. Who do you like in an OPS league?

9:54	Justin Mason: Larnach

9:54	rich: When Mookie gets his 2nd base rating is he in a tier of his own, would you say there is a huge gap between him and the number two 2nd baseman.

9:54	Justin Mason: Absolutely

9:54	Brendan Donovan: People know I hit only 5 home runs last year, but what many don’t bring up is that 3 of those came in just September. Did I figure something out in the offseason or is my power output a continuation from an adjustment I made late last season? Cue X-Files theme

9:54	Justin Mason: He did work in the offseason to add power and change his swing, I am a believer.

9:55	Fredbird: Will the Padres be in a 6 man all year?

9:55	Justin Mason: Probably not

9:55	ROBOCOP: While trying to temper expectations and the overall excitement that is the start of baseball season, which team are you more excited about for this year after seeing their opening weekend performance?

9:55	Justin Mason: The Rangers

9:55	Anonymous: Etiquette question: When would you start sending trade offers for struggling studs?

9:55	Justin Mason: Absolutely. If people are freaking out early, I am happy to take advantage

9:56	Yuniesky Betancourt: Turnbull against BOS or Tyler Wells vs TEX this week? 5×5

9:56	Justin Mason: Turnbull

9:56	punky brewcrew: how would you rank clevinger, ashcraft, eflin in a roto league that counts wins and k/9?

9:56	Justin Mason: Eflin, Ashcraft, Clevinger

9:56	Friar Cruz: Is Nellie Cruz strictly a platoon bat from here on out?

9:56	Justin Mason: Looks like he could be

9:57	John W: Obviously early, but what positives can we take away from Kelenic’s at-bats so far?

9:57	Justin Mason: Swinging strike rate is below 10% and he is making a good amount of contact in the zone. BEing a bit too passive, but I think he is fine.

9:57	RTJ: Do we see the beginning of a DeSclafani rebound today?

9:57	Justin Mason: Probably not

9:57	Justin S.: Need to fill final SP slot with either German vs PHI, Sandoval vs TOR or Falter vs CIN…who are you rolling with?

9:57	Justin Mason: Sandoval

9:58	Yuniesky Betancourt: Which player are you overreacting to the most based on the first series of the year?

9:58	Justin Mason: None

9:58	TERMINATOR 2 was best terminator: Judge has 4 hits in 11 career AB vs Taijuan… all of which are homers. So we are benching Walker for tonight right?

9:58	Justin Mason: Yes

9:58	Jason: Drop Flaherty to take a flyer on Seth Lugo?

9:58	Justin Mason: No

9:58	McBoatface: Mateo or Ruiz: Who finishes with more steals?

9:58	Justin Mason: Ruiz

9:58	ar: thoughts on Berrios today against KC?

9:58	Justin Mason: I wouldn’t start him in any format

9:58	Jason: Drop Conforto for Wiemer?

9:58	Justin Mason: No

9:58	Jean: Time to cut ties with Bellinger in 12tm 5OF leagues? K rate is over 30% and with everyone now stealing more, not sure if he’s even valuable for SBs. Starting Siri and Friedl over him and can pick up Baty, Grossman, Winker, Mateo, Grisham.

9:58	Justin Mason: No

9:58	ART Fuldodger: How long before Will Smith is the regular 3B and Cartaya is the Catcher?

9:58	Justin Mason: I don’t see that happening

9:59	Bruce Live: Stream SP’s, Kikucki at KC or Maeda at Mia?

9:59	Justin Mason: Maeda

9:59	Steve: Is Adam Duvall for real? Worth adding over a guy like J Mccarthy?

9:59	Justin Mason: Nah, this is just a hot streak.

9:59	CUB FAN & BUD MAN: Why not play Edwin Rios everyday?

9:59	Justin Mason: Because he isn’t that good?

9:59	GettinRowdy: What are the chances of a Johan Oviedo breakout this year?

9:59	Justin Mason: I am really intrigued. I am starting him this week in some draft and hold leagues.

9:59	Jim: Any thoughts on Elehuris Montero? Wasn’t on any/many radars coming into the season.