Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – April 28, 2025

Justin Mason: I will begin at the top of hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Mochi: What’s your process for determining stayability for guys?  Re: follow up on your conversation from Sunday with JC about Kurtz not just coming up for a cup of coffee.  Asking mainly about Agustin Ramirez and Chandler Simpson

Justin Mason: So typically I look at the team’s 26-man roster. If the opening was created by an injury, especially one that seems short term, I tend to think the leash is a little bit shorter. Team construct is often huge in these scenarios. Ramirez and Kurtz are in better spots because they likely are on teams that aren’t caring about competing right now whereas the Rays may try to battle. It gives Kurtz and Ramirez a little more rope. Then I look mostly at the underlying skills with production. Typically, underlying skills are a bit more important, but in these scenarios, you can get sent out if the surface stats aren’t there in spite of the underlying numbers being there.

Jeb: Konnor Griffin looks to be off to a great start. Is he someone you could see shooting up the rankings over the course of this year? Seems like he has a massive ceiling….

Justin Mason: I drafted him in multiple dynasty formats because the upside is massive. He is a long ways away and a lot of it will depend on the hit tool getting better. He is producing right now, but it is a 29% K rate so we need to see that imporve.

JT Snow: Someone in my league hates the Giants and dropped Adames, Ramos, and Flores. Is that the right order and how much FAAB do I throw at this trio? None of them fill a particular need and would be bench players for me, but seems silly to let them get away.

Justin Mason: That is the right order. I wouldn’t go overboard for any of them outside of Adames, but maybe like 20% of FAAB on him seems fair

Parker: Start Reese Olson @ HOU in ROTO?

Justin Mason: yes

Snid: Alvarado and Tanner Scott the closers all season?

Justin Mason: probably not. They may get a share of the saves rest of the way, but both teams have shown the desire to move to the guy that is performing and if they struggle they will lose the roles or have others work in.

Liam hendricks: Droppable in deep AL only holds plus saves? (I have Uceta, Tim Herrin, Okert and Mason Miller)

Justin Mason: yes

Kikuchi, destroyer of Whips: Kikuchi has looked not so great this year. I’m already dealing with Bibee (and just lost Gilbert). Is a MR better for ratios at this point?

Justin Mason: depends on your depth of league, but probably not. Kikuchi is one of those guys that can turn it around in an instant. Maybe you bench, but I probably wouldn’t drop him

Justin: When do you think Bubba Chandler gets the call? Maybe not Skenes level, but level below that as his upside?

Justin Mason: End of May. I think he can be an SP2-3 pretty quickly

kane: Is Jordan Walker in the ‘there have got to be better options out there’ territory? Or more along the lines of ‘there’s some small glimmer of hope in a particularly deep league to hang onto him… and then dump in a couple weeks if this doesn’t get any better?’

Justin Mason: depends on your depth of league, but I think he does. The underlying numbers are showing he just is not been a good in-zone hitter and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he was sentdown.

RedSox: H2H Dynasty league…thoughts on a Kurtz/Roman Anthony for Kristian Campbell swap?

Justin Mason: I will take Kurtz/Roman every day

Zach: Should I try and sell high on Eovaldi?

Justin Mason: I would. His health track record is bad. He is getting lucky in the BABIP. I think regression or injury happens at some point

Judley: True or False: Chandler Simpson is freakin’ awesome!

Justin Mason: True

East India Trading Company: 10T 5×5 OBP league with multiple IF spots and 5 OF: would you drop Jonathan India for either Spencer Steer or Andy Pages?

Justin Mason: I would for Pages right now, but be ready to move quickly when regression sets in

AL Only OF: Travis Jankoswki or Mouricio Dubon? (I’m leaning Jankowski because he seems liklier to get short term PT right now and a better chance at some badly needed SB).

Justin Mason: Jank

Roman Empire: Roman Anthony ETA? They’re doing ok but he’s got to be an upgrade over someone in that lineup right?

Justin Mason: I think he is up by the end of May

Snake Handler: Jordan Lawlar worth slashing? He’s destroying Triple A but with Marte and Perdomo there’s no room in the IF unless the D-backs move Suarez to DH

Justin Mason: At some point they have to bring him up. I think I would still stash for now.

Save Me: Better saves spec stash: Shelby Miller, Porter Hodge or Alexis Diaz?

Justin Mason: Hodge

Dog Days of April: Hi Justin, I apologize for this agonizing question. You deserve better. At CI this week, do I “want” Baez, Muncy, Urias or Bell? Thank you again.

Justin Mason: Muncy

MF Luder: Do you think Coby Mayo will be fantasy relevant by the end of June?

Justin Mason: I really hope so, but it’s hard to know what the Orioles will do considering how they have treated their prospects in recent seasons.

Sarah: Hey, Jason! Quick question about Agustin … how much of a targey is he for you for redraft and dynasty??

Justin Mason: He was a big target for me in redraft last night in FAAB, but I fell short in all my leagues. I would love to have him in dynasty and would pay a premium for him. The bat is great and I think they will give him a chance to stick enough behind the plate to get eligibility there for a few years.

Britton: Start Seth Lugo at TB, Liberatore at Cin, Bowden Francis vs Boston or start Ben Casparius.  5X5 roto.  Can only start one.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Lugo

Jon: Could you rank these WW options in an OBP roto league for me? Steer, Goodman, B Lowe, Pages, Winn, A Thomas

Justin Mason: Goodman, Lowe, Pages, Steer, Winn, Thomas

I Used to be Mel Clark: What are your adjusted expectations for hurt SPs returning—ie. Kirby, Grayson, Woodruff?

Justin Mason: I don’t have high expectatiosn for Grayson for this year. It seems like this could be a lost season. Woodruff I have some expectations for but him having what seems like a setback scares me. Kirby is the one I would be most in on at this point and he is now throwing BP which is good

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Thanks as always Justin.  I have both Chandler Simpson and X. Edwards on my team.  Similar players?  Who should I be looking to offload if I need at least one of them do SBs.  12 Team Mixed Roto

Justin Mason: I think I offload the one that gets me the most in return. Both are similar in terms of what they will bring fantasy wise.

First Basemen: Is it worth dropping Busch for any of Kurtz, Steer, Manzardo or Agustin Ramirez?

Justin Mason: Probably only Kurtz

High5Ghost: Doval or Vest in a 12 team mixed?

Justin Mason: Vest

Edwin Uceta: Does he return to his second half of ‘24 form or can we chalk that up to a hot streak and he’s just a guy the meta cut a few years ago?

Justin Mason: underlying numbers are a bit scary and don’t give me a ton of hope to be honest

MIKE: My offense is BAAAAAD. Julio Rodriguez, Trea Turner, Michael Harris II all underperforming. Already cut bait with Vinnie P and Vientos. How long do I wait with these guys before I start speculating on the Jordan Becks of the world?

Justin Mason: DO NOT DROP THOSE GUYS

Houston’s Ace: Hunter Brown is the truth, isn’t he?

Justin Mason: He absolutely looks like it. The underlying numbers are right in line with the production. This is a breakout

Steve: How soon on Lawlar? And when do you think Shaw comes back (I think they sent him down partly for service time reasons)

Justin Mason: I think Lawlar is up mid-to-late May

Larry’s Homework: Think trading for Buxton is smart? I’m being asked for a mid-level starer (Rasmussen or Wise) and I’m tempted thanks to a poor offense.

Justin Mason: probably not. The underlying contact numbers scare me and no one has worth health history.

Noj: Rank these starters ROS (5×5 roto)? May, Liberatore, Megill, Bubic, Pepiot, Meyer. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Meyer, Megill, May, Bubic, Pepiot, Liberatore

Flipsho: Is it time to sell high on Tucker or Suzuki or should we expect this kind of production all year along with a buddy cop series?

Justin Mason: I am riding this out

Matt: Is Max Meyer really good now? I mean it is a slider first profile, but could he just a be Dylan Cease type?

Justin Mason: I think he is a potential stud if he can stay healthy. Obviously it hurts to be on the Marlins, but the park is great and he has looked fantastic.

MF Luder: True or false. Edouard Julien is a top 10 fantasy 2b by year’s end

Justin Mason: false

One Must Go: Keep 2 lose 1 in an OBP league: Lux, Durbin, India

Justin Mason: India

Reuben: Is your hitter/pitcher depth team-dependent or do you find yourself leaning one way or the other?
The first and second place teams in my league are polar opposites with one team constantly cycling bench bats for matchups and the other team essentially having a second rotation of SP streamers on his bench at all times.

Justin Mason: It is always team construct dependent. Some teams have such good offensive flexibility that you don’t need to have the depth on the bench while others dont

Gunnar: Gunnar is the only struggling superstar I haven’t had a chance to watch much this year. Would you buy at 80-90% of preseason price? It’s still April so I’m inclined to buy, looking for reasons not to

Justin Mason: I absolutely would buy low here.

Guest: Would you drop Shane Mcclanahan for Eury to stash? Only 1 IL spot

Justin Mason: I don’t think I would

N Marte: Am I legit?

Justin Mason: Not this legit but he could have value which is more than I thought was possible coming into the season.

Justin 3Ber: Would you swap out Bohm for Noelvi at this point in shallow points leagues?

Justin Mason: sure

Matt: Apparently, Lin-Manuel Miranda is making a movie about the Molina brothers.

Justin Mason: Cant wait to watch that lol

Justin Mason: point awarded

KC: Is Zach Neto a top 10 SS?

Justin Mason: I think he will be

Kurtzing for Upsid: Would you go after Kurtz over Steer in points leagues?

Justin Mason: absolutely

Mo: Hi!

Justin Mason: Hi!

Moustaches for everyone: Even you!

Justin Mason: My moustache is the weakest part of my beard.

Wood: Agustin needs to be rostered even though I already have Yainer Diaz right? 12T roto

Justin Mason: Doesn’t necessarily need to be rostered by you but he should be rostered in a 12

Two-bee: Hey Justin, second base has been meh for me this year with Semien and Gimenez.  Think either is worth a drop for Lux, mcneil, or arias or should i just stash cronenworth?

Justin Mason: Don’t drop either.

Backup 1B/CI: Rank S. Perez, Yandy Diaz, Aranda ROS. H2H, 10-team, points league.

Justin Mason: Perez, Aranda, Diaz

No Fair: Robbie Ray already patented the “, Destroyer of Whips” suffix

Justin Mason: Point awarded

1BHelp: Would you drop either Aranda or Kurtz for Steer with him heating up?

Justin Mason: Aranda yes. Kurtz no

MF Luder: Is Julio Rodriguez ever an MVP candidate again?

Justin Mason: He will be at some point

Steve: Shaw most likely up sooner than later? Maybe once the Cubs gain an extra year of control. Numbers in AAA don’t look great so far but 1 k in 32 PA’s

Justin Mason: He needs to show he belongs first. Might be a longer demotion.

Hankrank: N. Marte or Vientos ROS? Share some thoughts on Noelvi!

Justin Mason: I lean Vietnos here but I think they are very similar. Marte is a very aggressive hitter and that will lead to slumps. Right now he is hot so in the short term the answer is him, but his overly aggressive could lead to terrible cold streaks and I don’t know if the Reds will be as patient with him as the Mets will be with Vientos.

John Danks Fan: Any good “buy high” pitchers? I’m in a weekly h2h dynasty points league with 12 GS limit per week. I usually like to use all my starts by streaming but all my arms are basically undroppable and I have McClanahan and Woodruff coming back soon. Looking to package some guys but not sure who to target

Justin Mason: Max Meyer, Tylor Megill, Hunter Brown, Luzardo, Schwellenbach, Mize

JT: Should I trade out Moniak for Beck tonight in FAAB? Chasing the latest Coors guys make me want a bourbon.

Justin Mason: Yeah, probably but be ready to move off quickly when he cools

Risky Business: Which of these boring veteran 2 starts do you prefer this week:  Heaney or JP Sears (2 road starts)

Justin Mason: Heaney

not Sporer but…: SERIOUSLY DO NOT DROP THESE GUYS (loved the Neto rant on the pod)

Justin Mason: Yeah, making drops of top 100 guys this early is always a mistake

Justin Mason: misspelling mistake is a fun mistake

Reynolds Wrapped?: I can’t bench Bryan Reynolds for Victor Scott this week, right? BR’s xwoba is .347 if we care about that

Justin Mason: nope

Pepiot: Is Pepiot becoming a road-start-only guy? The George terrifies me

Justin Mason: I think he is in that park

Tim: Thoughts on Soriano? I was optimistic but the opening starts look like a mirage now. In a 14t dynasty, is he droppable for Shane Smith now or when Ranger Suarez is activated?

Justin Mason: I am really perplexed by Soriano. The stuff has not looked nearly as good as his first two seasons and he is still allowing too much contact. I think I would try and hold, but I do prefer Smith over Soriano right now

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: I can move Altuve to my OF slot, so who do you like more ROS, Nimmo or BLowe?

Justin Mason: Lowe

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Who do you trust more this week, Canning (@WAS, @STL) or Verlander (v.COL)?

Justin Mason: Canning

Bob: H2H points league with k penalty. Mclain just got dropped, worth a pick up to see if he can get back on track?

Justin Mason: absolutely

John Danks Fan: Is now a good time to deal Luis Castillo after his last start or are we riding

Justin Mason: I think I am riding with him

Patrick: What’s a realistic expectation for McCullers this season?

Justin Mason: No expectations after such a long layoff

Catchers: 12 team h2h with obp – Keep Sean Murphy or go with Tyler Stephenson  when he comes back?

Justin Mason: Give me Murphy

Idiotic Failson: Have we seen enough Curtis Mead to know he’s just not going to be a fantasy contributor? He’s been brutal to roster.

Justin Mason: I think we have

st stache: Hi!  I’m sitting on Jack Leiter as an il stash but weathers and eury are out there too.  What’s your rank ros?

Justin Mason: Leiter, Weathers, Eury

Schilling & Pence: Someone dropped A Giménez in my 12 teamer.  Worth dropping M Garcia for him, or are they basically the same player?

Justin Mason: I am keeping Garcia

Idiotic Failson: Toglia was a preseason favorite among speculators hoping for a breakout. Are we still in SSS territory with him or is it time to cut bait?

Justin Mason: He is good at home and bad on the road. You will just have to platoon him if you keep him but remember that Coors plays better as the season goes on.

Charlie Morton: It’s over even in deep leagues, right?

Justin Mason: Yes

Walker, SF Ranger: Any thoughts on Ryan Walker v Doval?  His negative points the last two weeks have me realllll nervous?

Justin Mason: I still think that Walker is the 1A, but this is now a 1A/1B conversation as opposed to Doval just being the handcuff

Steve: Does Brooks Lee have a role once Lewis returns? Do the Twins need to trade somebody?

Justin Mason: I think he does because someone else will inevitably get hurt there before then

Concerned In Cincy: Matt McLain… woof. Hold fast in a 10-team roto, or drop him for Perdormo/Volpe?

Justin Mason: I am holding

Mike: Trusting Ramirez as a catcher in one catcher leagues over Wells, Murphy, and Alvarez?

Justin Mason: yes

Bob: Do you think McCullers or Eury are worth stashing in a 14 team league?

Justin Mason: probably not unless its a keeper

GBS42: Why is my team so incredibly awful this season? Did I forget a blood moon sacrifice? Should I have sent Daniel Okrent a birthday card? It’s getting embarrassing how bad things are.

Justin Mason: It is still just April. It will be better.

Justin Mason: Point awarded

James: Beck or Misner ROS?

Justin Mason: Misner

Grade the Trade: Which side do you prefer in this deal (5×5 OBP): India/Ober for Imanaga/Clase/Scott II

Justin Mason: the trio

Stick to Sporer-tzball: Following up my last question…is trading Xavier Edward’s for Porter Hodge a good idea if I need saves?  Thx

Justin Mason: I think you should get a small piece back but yes

Wagaman the Dog: Who the heck is Eric Wagaman and should I care (in a 12T dynasty with 40-man rosters format)?

Justin Mason: Wagaman is an interesting prospect that has a decent hit tool and power. I think he should be rostered in a 12 that deep. Will play regularly in Miami

DJ: Is Luis Robert a good bounce back candidate, or are we witnessing a furthering decline?

Justin Mason: the latter

Snakebitten: Is Devin Williams an RP target for you right now?

Justin Mason: yes

Snid: Anything on Megill’s knee issue? Will he last? Who’s next? thx

Justin Mason: Sounds like he is going to try and pitch through it, but I am stashing Uribe just in case

Ben: Deep league and my 2B options fell apart early – Brooks Lee or Colt Keith ROS? Yeah, it is bad.

Justin Mason: Keith

First base First: Walker and Alphabet (Encarnación-Strand) are my 1B eligible players. I need to hedge my bets right? WW options are Sheets, Wagaman, France, Schanuel, Toglia, Cronenworth. See anything you like?

Justin Mason: Wagaman out of that group

Justin Mason: Trying to speed round things a bit with less than 10 minutes left.

KC Pain: 18 teamer dynasty 6×6 would you swap Holmes (Mets) for Sproat and A. Ramirez? I feel like it is too much too early.

Justin Mason: I am ok with that

Can-ning he do it?: Is Canning a better bet than Kikuchi? My pitching has been getting by but relying on Buehler and Bassitt has me rightly scared.

Justin Mason: for right now he is, but I expect Kikuchi to be better

Farts r funny: Hope for Holliday? holding on to him in a dynasty, but I’m competing now and I’m having some FOMO if I deal him..

Justin Mason: He is still super young right now, so I wouldn’t dump him in dynasty.

Categories: Is it too early to start worrying about ERA and other pitching cats? I’m in an AL Only and my pitching has been awful, particularly ERA. OTOH, it’s still April.

Justin Mason: It is too early to freak out, but not to early to make moves to address ratios because ratios typically are harder to find as the season progresses.

Dude: Is Colt Keith and Kyren Paris cooked?

Justin Mason: Keith isn’t. Paris is

Guest: In a dynasty draft would you take R sasaki or de paula?

Justin Mason: Sasaki

Force the Richard to Fitt: Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t been bad as of late.  Are you touching his @NYM, @PHI double if you need starts or is it better to just play a single start from someone like Mize or Leiter?

Justin Mason: I think I would roll with it in deeper formats, but I would be tempted to just go with Mize

Hank Scorpio: Are you rolling with Pfaadt in Philly with how he’s overachieving, or would you roll the dice on Tobias Myers at White Sox?

Justin Mason: Myers

Dale: Is Max Muncy (LAD) cooked? Who would you try to get to replace him that might be available in 12 teams?

Justin Mason: He will be fine. This is who he is. If you drop him he will pull a Eugenio Suarez and have a multi-homer game.

Pray for Mojo: Wagaman or Muncy at CI this week?

Justin Mason: Muncy

Dos Muncys: Is there any hope for Sean Burke?

Justin Mason: Nah

R: Does Westburg have top 30 hitter upside?

Justin Mason: Nah

South Sider: Any concerns with Clarke Schmidt going forward? It’s only been three starts, but his walk rate is much higher than last year

Justin Mason: I think he will be fine

James Tiberius Kirk: Recently acquired Rice $1….would you flip him plus something if it netted you a mid-teens priced Vladito?

Justin Mason: sure

danny: should i trade casas and caminero for ketel marte? 12 team 5×5 no k penalty

Justin Mason: in a redraft, I think I would, but not in a keeper

Nells: Do I drop Conforto or Lane Thomas for Heliot Ramos?

Justin Mason: either yes

Elle: When did you stop loving the Giants and, by extension, your wife?

Justin Mason: I never have and never will

Justin Mason: Point awarded

Matt: Current RPs (12tm points, saves league) are Megill, Jackson, and Estevez. Drop any for Bednar/Smith or sit tight?

Justin Mason: sit tight

J.B.: In a Saves-Holds league and going on the cheap at RP.  Mason Montgomery, Craig Yoho, or Ryan Zeferjahn at final RP slot?

Justin Mason: Montgomery

High5Ghost: Rafaela, Lux, Arraez, or Gleyber for a 12 team mixed 2B? Thanks!!

Justin Mason: Lux

Devin williams: He was dropped in my 12 tm league. Should he be picked up and stashed? What kinda faab percent do you think? Thank you!

Justin Mason: I would go like 10-15% of my faab to stash him

Panera Special: Can you pick two for a QS points league: Megill (@StL), Gore (@ Phi), Gore (@Cin), Shota (@Mil)? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Shota and Gore at CIN

Scary Pitching Problems: Luis Ortiz has been punching dudes out, but looks shaky otherwise. Is he worth a gamble ros? Can Cleveland work their magic with him?

Justin Mason: I don’t trust his command and control to stay good enough to make it work

Justin Mason: Thank you all for chatting with me

Justin Mason: please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!