Justin Mason’s 2026 Bold Predictions

It is that time of year again! It is time for BOLD predictions. As a reminder, these are not necessarily things I think will happen, but things I think could happen if a player reaches his 75-90% outcome. If I get 2-3 of these right, I will be pretty happy. Make sure you tell me where I am completely off base and what bold predictions you have for the 2026 season.

Nasim Nuñez steals 50 bases.
Ok, so I thought I was the Nasim Nuñez guy this year and then Paul Sporer tried to swoop in and steal my guy! Not going to happen! Nunez stole 45 bases in 324 plate appearances between AAA and the Majors last season. He also stole 50+ each season in the minors in 2022 and 2023. He has maintained a double digit walk rate at every stop in the minor leagues and I think the hit tool is better than people give him credit for. Most importantly, he is a great defender and the Nationals are moving Luis García Jr. away from second base to improve their infield defense which means he should play everyday.

Andrew Vaughn is a top 10 first baseman
Vaughn was looking like a failed prospect in Chicago. Then he was traded to Milwaukee and raked. He hit .308/.375/.493 with nine home runs in 254 plate appearances. The underlying skills have always been good and they were in 2025. He had a 48% hard hit percentage with a 12% barrel rate. His Z-contact was 88% while only swinging outside the zone at a 25% clip. All the things are there for him to turn into the stud that he was projected for as a prospect.

Ryne Nelson is a top 30 starter
Nelson is finally going to be a fixture of the Diamondbacks rotation after years of bouncing back and forth between the rotation and bullpen. Last season as a starter, he threw 128 innings with a 3.16 ERA and 105 strikeouts. The strikeout numbers were underwhelming, but the stuff is great and he has been refining the shape on his breaking stuff this spring which could give the repertoire balance to really start getting some K’s.

Zebby Matthews is a top 25 starter
The stuff is unreal for Matthews, but what gets lost in the 5.56 ERA last year was the really good control that we saw. He had a 7% walk rate and that was lower throughout his entire minor league career. He can struggle with fastball command at times, but there is fantastic upside and with Pablo Lopez getting Tommy John surgery, Zebby should be in the rotation.

Nick Lodolo is the top starting pitcher for the Reds
This one is less about Lodolo and more about the other pitchers in the rotation. Both Hunter Greene and Chase Burns are going higher than Lodolo and have higher upside, however, they have massive injury risk. Greene has struggled with injuries pretty much every year of his career and Burns missed time with elbow issues last season. While Lodolo has dealt with injuries in the past, he showed last season he could throw 150+ innings and is good at getting groundballs, unlike Greene who lives in the air too much in a dangerous park.

Brett Baty is a top 10 second baseman
A part of this one is because the second base pool is so bad. Honestly, I could do 10 bold predictions just on the position itself. However, Baty has become one of my favorite targets this year. He is a former top prospect coming off of a pretty good season. There is a ton of power in the bat and a good hit tool. Right now he is projected to platoon, but I think he could find himself with every day plate appearances at some point because he has shown he can handle lefties. A raise in launch angle and Baty could be a 30/90 guy.

Jackson Chourio goes 35/35
In spite of a season where he was injured and had moments of struggles, Chourio still put up a 21/21 season in just 131 games played. With the health issues behind him, he could finally tap into the power/speed combo that made him one of the top prospects in all of baseball. The raw power and speed have always been there and the hit tool has progressed faster than I would have expected. If he stays on the field, he returns top half of the first round type of value.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is not a top 40 outfielder
Crow-Armstrong had two wildly different halves. He was amazing in the first half, going 25/27 with a .265 average, but then went 6/8 with a .216 average in the second half. This is what happens when you swing outside the zone as much as he does. We saw the downside of this profile before in Michael Harris II and just like Harris, because he is a fantastic defender, he will play no matter what which means you eat all the bad outings.

Kyle Stowers is not a top 50 outfielder
I almost made this one an Owen Caissie prediction, but it would have been more about just not drafting Stowers this high when Caissie is virtually the same player later. Stowers has a ton of power and I do think he will hit home runs, but the team around him is terrible and so is his hit tool. Stowers is too aggressive especially for a guy with a sub-80% Z-Contact. The average could crater here and you’d be looking at a player that wont hit his body weight and has very little support for runs and RBIs.

Coby Mayo hits 30 home runs
Mayo is a former top prospect that has struggled in his brief Major League stays. However, he has immense power and with Jordan Westburg out for at least a few months, he has the chance to play every day at the hot corner. All he needs to do is make league average contact and he realistically could hit 40 home runs.