Justin Mason Baseball Chat – July 24th

July 24, 2018

Chat starts soon!

8:59

Justin Mason: Hey everyone! Let’s have a great chat today! Just a reminder that I will answer as many questions as I can, but please don’t repeat questions. If I can’t get to your questions then hit me up on facebook at https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100008744507752 or on twitter @justinmasonfwfb.

9:01	Ichiro: How are feeling about Posey ROS? I acquired him for basically nothing and he surely has to be a better option than Zunino, whom I inherited.

9:01	Justin Mason: I don’t know that the power ever comes back, but at worst he is a high average guy in the middle of an ok lineup which with the state of catcher right now has a lot of value.

9:01	Brian: Never heard Cole Calhoun and upside in the same podcast before

9:02	Justin Mason: Me neither lol

9:02	Kevin: I have Puig on the DL and picked up Piscotty to replace him for the time being. However, with Piscotty as hot as he is, is there any point to holding Puig?

9:03	Justin Mason: I might try to. Puig has the greater upside and there was a rumor out there today that the Dodgers may look to trade him in a Zack Britton deal to help keep them under the luxury tax threshold. He could be awesome in Camden.

9:03

FantasyNut2017: What are your expectations for Ervin Santana coming back this or next week? I really need Ws and QS, and I’m also trying to make a come back in Saves. Would you drop any of these guys: Godley, Musgrove, Suarez, Castillo, Weaver, Will Smith, Yates, Strop. Also have Ryu coming back soon.

9:05

Justin Mason: I honestly don’t know what to expect. He has out pitched his underlying metrics the last couple of seasons and has not had great reports on his rehab. The Twins are pretty bad, but the defense behind him is good. I wouldn’t mind dropping Will Smith for him just in case he can start strong off of the DL. It is a bad division, so there may be some cheap wins

9:05

BigTuna: Due to injury, I only have Nola, Heaney, Price, and D.Rodriguez active in my 12 tm roto league. The best waiver arms are T. Anderson, Fiers, LeBlanc, Eovaldi, Stroman. Would you roster any or just wait out the C-Mart and Fulmer injuries? I’d have to drop Soroka or a bench bat like JBJ or Ketel.

9:06	Justin Mason: I would grab stroman or eovaldi. Eovaldi could be traded and has actually pitched well except for two starts this year. Can’t field just four starters and hope to not give up ground in wins and ks

9:06	Joe Bags: Your thoughts on Pivetta’s fantasy value? (personally in a 5×5 12 team). Would you hold or pick up a guy like Cahill?

9:07	Justin Mason: Definitely hold. I believe in the skills and Cahill isn’t exciting enough for me to cut bait.

9:07	Rhys-Pieces: I have Nola, Bellinger, HOskins currently as my keepers in a 16tm H2H keep 3 league. My team is out of it and I was considering targeting Freeman, is he that big of an upgrade to either of my bats tho?

9:07	Justin Mason: Yes. Freeman is a stud. Both Hoskins and Bellinger are very good young players, but not in the same league as Freeman.

9:08	BigTuna: Any players you find yourself rostering in advance of the deadline in hopes of a situation change?

9:08	Justin Mason: Mosylt just spec closers. Jimenez, Givens, Lorenzen, Mton, Hicks etc

9:09	AKA22: Strasburg worth buying right now?

9:09	Justin Mason: I wouldn’t personally. Injury risk is always there and now that he is back, owners will want full price.

9:09	JayHoss: Is Cano worth a pick up and hold as a bench player? I’m making the playoffs this year, and considering dropping him for an upside SP like Rodon or Musgrove

9:10	Justin Mason: For sure. Rodon likely gets shut down. Cano could be a difference maker and likely picks up 1B eligibility fairly quickly.

9:10	Matt S: Looking to add 1 more starter in a 10 team H2H: looking ahead to the playoffs. I have depth at SP so I can afford to be judicious in when I start him. Who would you add from Marcus Stroman, Junior Guerra, Derek Rodriguez?

9:10	Justin Mason: Stroman

9:11	Gabe: Are there any deep league 1Bs that can be top 12 ROS?

9:11	Justin Mason: Have to give me more context or some idea of what kind of players are available.

9:11	BigTuna: I traded Manaea for Jake Lamb in a 12 tm OPS league, but Lamb has been very quiet. Do you have faith ROS or would you move on?

9:12	Justin Mason: I don’t have much faith right now. Platoon player that has been victimized by the humidor in Chase.

9:12	Matt S: Start Guerra tonight vs the Nats?

9:12	Justin Mason: no

9:12	Brian: Why doesn’t Almora get more hype? Young, hitting .320…..what am I missing here?

9:14	Justin Mason: Short side platoon guy and defensive replacement. Mostly a deeper mixed league guy because of playing time and lack of power and speed contributions, but I like him in those leagues.

9:14	Where am I?: It’s time to just drop Cespedes, right?

9:14	Justin Mason: If your DL is filled with talent, then I can see it in a shallower format.

9:14	Greg: With Realmuto not really running this year, who would you take for the second half, Realmuto or Posey?

9:14	Justin Mason: Realmuto

9:14	A Proposal: Rebuilding. 12-Team Dynasty. Standard Scoring. H2H. Weekly. Keep 13. Any recommended trade targets for my Yadier Molina?

9:15	Justin Mason: Need more context. 2 catcher or 1? What position?

9:15	Boring Boring Bro Dullard: Is Mike Fiers for real? Should he be got?

9:15	Justin Mason: no

9:15	BIg Joey : Who should be my SS for the ROS (league counts OBP and SLG too): Chris Taylor, A. Simmons, Elvis Andrus?

9:15	Justin Mason: Simmons

9:16	Justin Mason: Almost went Taylor though. Thats the upside play.

9:16	Sum: 10 H2H points. Def playing Pham over K Seager in my Util slot ROS, right?

9:16	Justin Mason: yup

9:16	BigTuna: Hiura worth holding on my 6-person bench in an OPS keep 7 league? I’m in 4th now so have a shot at the title but love his upside if he gets called up to replace injured Villar and can be kept.

9:16	Justin Mason: I don’t think he gets the call this year, but in a keeper, I am holding.

9:16	Hamper : Have you liked what you’ve seen from Will Smith so far? I don’t know much about him.

9:17	Justin Mason: I have, but I don’t think he is long for the role. Strickland will be back

9:17	Bartolo: I’ve been hurting in saves all year in AL-Only. Now have Parker, Britton, Tepera and W. Peralta. Also stashing Hildenberger and Givens. Others stashes available are Brach, Alvarado/D. Castillo, Frye/Minaya, Leclerc. Would you stash any differently than I have?

9:17	Justin Mason: Nope, I would stick with what you have.

9:17	HappyFunBall: Thinking it’s time to let go of the Justin Turner dream for this season …

9:17	Justin Mason: Agreed.

9:18	JJ: Do you ride the Odor hot streak and then dump at the first sign of trouble or has something changed with him that makes this semi-sustainable? Thanks.

9:18	Justin Mason: I think this is just the ceiling. We saw the floor earlier. Don’t think either is going to be the long term outcome.

9:18	WhatAMoran: Going for the win this year and packaged Posey + Tatis Jr for Story (have Gattis at C already). Will this haunt me for years? (H2H 12 teamer)

9:19	Justin Mason: Not if you win a championship

9:19	Charlotte Sporer: Only have Asdrubal at 2B – do I pick up Happ, Odor, or Kipnis for a bench bat, or stash Cano?

9:19	Justin Mason: Grab Odor.

9:19	QuickInquisition: Do you buy Robbie Ray for cheap and hope for a rebound ROS?

9:19	Justin Mason: I would be willing to do it if I had safer ratios already built up.

9:19	BigTuna: Addison Russell or Ketel Marte ROS in OPS formats?

9:19	Justin Mason: Russell

9:20	Brian: Who is the better flyer as eight keeper: Yu, Kingery, Conforto?

9:20	Justin Mason: Conforto

9:20

54: Omar Narvaez quietly has been on fire. One of the Jeffs compared him to Tucker Barnhart in the recent chat, but I wanted to know if you saw anything in his profile that foretells a burgeoning fantasy asset, or if it’s a hot streak for a slap hitter that makes him a backstop streamer, nothing more.

9:21	Justin Mason: He isn’t that interesting for me. Don’t Castillo will be back at some point too.

9:21	Matt S: Ian Happ or Jake Bauers ROS? OBP league

9:21	Justin Mason: Bauers

9:21	BigTuna: re: adding Stroman or Eovaldi, would dropping Soroka come back to bite me in the ass? It’s a keeper league, but I can only keep 7 and I’m not sure he makes the cut. Thanks

9:22	Justin Mason: If you are playing for now, go ahead and drop.

9:22	Gest : I’m not sure how I feel about Madbum, can you give any insight on what to expect from him moving forward?

9:23	Justin Mason: He just hasn’t been the same since the injury last year. I think he has dropped out of my top 25 starters. Alex Chamberlain did a good piece on him last week. I think if the Giants start to falter he gets shut down.

9:24	Jose: What are your thoughts on Derek Holland sustaining his production this month?

9:24	Justin Mason: He is a middle reliever.

9:24	BIg Joey : What do you think Corey Seager’s peak season will look like? .320 35 120?

9:25	Justin Mason: I am really worried about his long term health and ability to stay at short. I don’t know that I believe he can do that.

9:25	Brian: Are you, much the same as me, struggling with pitching? I usually wait in pitching, but those days seem over

9:26	Justin Mason: I don’t. I like to grab a stud or two and then wait because I am pretty good at identifying guy late that I think have upside. Fantasy is all about figuring out your strengths and coming up with strategies to exploit them and minimize your weaknesses.

9:26	Bill: Cahill or Dereck Rodriguez ROS? Cahill’s borderline elite GB% and SwStr% are very enticing

9:27	Justin Mason: Cahill, but be ready to jump off when it turns bad.

9:27	Raider: Thoughts on Hampson callup? 10tm relevant?

9:27	Justin Mason: If Lemaheiu’s injury is more serious than yes Hampson is relevant in all formats.

9:27	Pio: How does the move to SD affect Mejia’s stock?

9:29

Justin Mason: I think it hurts him long term. His main issue is that his bat isn’t special if he is not behind the plate and the Padres have a fantastic defense catcher in Hedges, so mejia isn’t going to overtake him unless the Padres trade Hedges. If he gets moved to the outfield or another position, he just doesn’t have the power to be viable in a lot of formats.

9:29	Bill: Expectations for Julio Urias upon return in a month or so?

9:29	Justin Mason: I don’t think he returns in a month or two. If he does, it would likely be in a limited role.

9:29	Vic: Teoscar? Is he a Top 150 player next year?

9:29	Justin Mason: yes

9:30	Brian: Freddy Peralta a legit guy? He seems good, and doesn’t throw so hard that he will get injured.

9:31	Justin Mason: I think there are going to be ups and downs along the way with peralta. The delivery leads to a lack of command at times and you can only be so effective if you’re walking 5 per 9

9:32	Slamboni: Which side you like more in a standard 10 team mixed roto: Pollock/G Cole or Stanton/Britton?

9:32	Justin Mason: Cole side

9:33	Justin Mason: Unless you need the power and saves, but Britton may not be a closer in his next city.

9:33	Brian: In a deep dynasty, want Vlad. But he wants Trea, Andujar, Ohtani, Lester. Too much, right?

9:33	Justin Mason: way too much

9:33	Justin Mason: I wouldn’t even do Trea straight up

9:33	Scott Chu: How do you feel about Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo ROS? They were both top 25 picks in the preseason, but currently rank 184th and 125th on ESPN player rater (respectively).

9:34	Justin Mason: Both will be fine. Underlying skills are still there. I just traded for Rizzo in a dynasty league.

9:34	Uncle Mork: Do you anticipate Hand to be the Cle closer next year?

9:34	Justin Mason: I think there is a 60% chance he is.

9:35	Sandy Ravage: What do I do with Mad Bum? I am in the thick of it and it’s hard to justify selling, but he scares me. Should I sell at 60% of value or hang tight?

9:35	Justin Mason: See if you can package him with another piece for a stud.

9:35	Turgid: I’m in a keeper league that has an annual problem of the have-nots making ridiculous dump trades. There is no penalty for finishing in last place, but I think if there were it would help. Do you have any experience with this type of situation?

9:36	Justin Mason: Yeah, I do, but you won’t like my answer. I have no issue with dump trades as long as they’re not collusion and the dumper makes their players available to everyone.

9:37

Justin Mason: That being said, I have been in league that have instituted all sorts of rules to prevent dump trades. In-season salary cap and shortened trading period seems to have been the most popular options. Ultimately though, I don’t believe we should make rules to decide how others should run their teams.

9:38	Optimistic Met: Younger Gurriel for real? Clearer path to playing time and they moved him up in the order. Poor man’s brandon crawford?

9:40

Justin Mason: I am real interested to see him play more. The skills say he should strikeout more, but I think there is some pop and speed in that profile if he can continue to make good contact. I think long term he is a utility guy, but right now he has playing time, so he could be useful in deeper formats.

9:40	Bill: Severino last 3 something to worry about?

9:40	Justin Mason: Nah, I am not worried.

9:41	Brian: The Cubs starters remind me of the 90s Mariners. Will any improve?

9:42	Justin Mason: They are in first place in the most competitive division in the game in spite of underperformance by some of their studs and almost all their starters. What more do you want?

9:42	Jeff: My friend Sammi Meatballs thinks Manaea is a top 20 SP and Mike Leake is top 40 SP. Thoughts?

9:42	Justin Mason: I want what Sammi is smoking.

9:42	Jake Junis Priest: Start Morton tomorrow in Colorado? (AL Only, so I don’t really understand Rockies Stadium…)

9:42	Justin Mason: I am starting Morton anywhere

9:43	AKA22: Are you worried about Kluber the rest of the season? Time to sell before his value plummets?

9:43	Justin Mason: Nope

9:43	Tim the Tool Man Taylor: In a 12 H2H points league, I traded Bumgarner & Mikolas and got Nola & Rich Hill….what are your thoughts? I’m a little uncertain about Nola’s innings come the end of the year.

9:43	Justin Mason: I like that deal a lot.

9:44	Jake Junis Priest: Was not bringing up Willie Calhoun because of talent after all? Will he be too overmatched in the bigs for 2018?

9:44	Justin Mason: No, he will be fine offensively. Defensively is another question.

9:44	Charlie: Offered Miguel Sano for Touki Toussaint (Dynasty) … Can Sano return to form?

9:45	Justin Mason: Take Sano all day on that deal. I think he will rebound.

9:45	Oyster Burns: you worried about ozuna ros? give calhoun a shot over him?

9:45	Justin Mason: No away am I dumping Ozuna. especially not for Calhoun.

9:45	Super Dave: H2H pts. I need a 1B and opposing team needs a 3B. Is Suarez for Aguilar straight up a fair/smart deal?

9:46	Justin Mason: That is scary, I think I would want another piece. I have a hard time believing fully in Aguilar, but the underlying numbers say the power is legit. Just don’t know that the average stays good.

9:46	surf jam steven: start anderson vs houston at home tonight? hes been on a tear, even at home

9:46	Justin Mason: Not against Houston

9:46	Parts + Gleyber: Checking in on Ken Giles, AL-Only, 3 bench slots. Keep holding, right? Another week? Two?

9:47	Justin Mason: I am fine cutting bait depending on who it is for. The Astros aren’t letting him close any time soon.

9:47	Mason Jar: Willie Calhoun or Joc Pederson (same price) in a 10-team dynasty league? Curious about playing time for Calhoun and platooning for Pederson, both this year and in the future.

9:47	Justin Mason: Calhoun

9:47	Oyster Burns: hampson or wendle ros? career?

9:48	Justin Mason: Hampson on both. Wendle has very little upside.

9:48	Jay: Cano (w/suspension), DeJong, or Odor ROS?

9:48	Justin Mason: Give me the upside of Odor.

9:48	BillSimmons024: Currently own freddy peralta, eflin and buehler in a 12 team non keeper h2h league, worried about innings restrictions/fatigue since I’m in playoff position. any of these guys droppable for jon gray or julio teheran?

9:49	Justin Mason: I would probably stick it out for now, but I do worry Buehler gets moved into the pen. Gray is the pickup if you do it.

9:49	Optimistic Met: Maikel Franco has been up and down as he’s wont to do, but more up recently. Is this who he is at a ripe old age of 25? 250/310/450 type of slash with mid 20 homers?

9:49	Justin Mason: I do think this is what he is. And the Phillies don’t seem to want him as their guy.

9:50	Turgid: Why does Eddie Rosario get no goddamned respect?

9:50	Justin Mason: I think because people forget that he was a top prospect at one point and that the breakout was always in the range of outcomes. I was late on the bandwagon, but I am there now.

9:50	Walt: I know he’s old, hurt, etc. But Miguel Cabrera should still carry some value in a no salary, keep forever dynasty, right? .361 WOBA and 128 WRC+. Shouldn’t just dump him for any random, okay prospect here, right?

9:51	Justin Mason: Yeah, I will still hold for now and hope he can regain value with time to heal

9:51	Ryan: 12 team 5×5, should I sell high on Starlin Marte?

9:51	Justin Mason: I don’t think so. I have always believed we would see the breakout with him.

9:51	Oddball Herrera: Members of the Jesse Winker bandwagon – geniuses for finding the next OPS monster, or doofuses for getting excited about an empty batting average?

9:52	Justin Mason: Neither? He always profiled as an empty average guy, but has made swing changes to get more power and it is working. That being said, I don’t think he is ever more than a 15-20 homer bat with a very good average.

9:53	abel: rest of career: greg bird or matt olson?

9:53	Justin Mason: Career? Hmmm…

9:54	Justin Mason: I will go Bird, but that is only the upside play. There is a chance Bird doesn’t stay healthy most years and never lives up to the hype. Olson has a lower ceiling but a much higher floor.

9:54	54: Do you see Tyler Mahle and/or Luis Castillo having the upside of Must Start Fantasy Aces in the next couple years?

9:54	Justin Mason: I think Castillo has that upside, but I don’t think he is getting there.

9:55	Nate: What do I do with Rizzo in a 12 team redraft? I know his horrible start is still affecting the overall numbers but will the power ever show up?

9:55	Justin Mason: I think the power should rebound, but obviously for the season it will be disappointing.

9:56	Henry: Is Andrew Benintendi a top 20 draft pick next year?

9:56	Justin Mason: Probably not but close.

9:57	John B: Who will have a better 2nd half Nimmo or Brian Anderson?

9:57	Justin Mason: Nimmo

9:57	Henry: Are we going to get anything from Donaldson this year?

9:57	Justin Mason: I think so, but it isn’t going to be close to what we thought we would.

9:57	0 FV: Please help. I am trying to trade my Paxton for his Machado and he thinks I am not offering enough. I said if it was an 8 or 10-teamer I could see it but we are in a 14-team points league. Am I missing the mark somehow? Is this not a fair deal?

9:58	Justin Mason: Depends on your scoring, but with Paxton’s injury history, I would probably want more too.

9:58	Charlie: How do young players (i.e. Dustin Fowler) get an opportunity to break out of a platoon situation?

9:58	Justin Mason: Be on crappy teams that don’t care if they win?

9:58	Craiggers: Is Wil Myers breaking out?

9:58	Justin Mason: ooohhhh yeah!

9:58	Daniel: Is Cespedes worth a bench/roster spot at this point?

9:58	Justin Mason: Depends on depth of league, but in shallow formats, I have no problem moving on.

9:59	Tallulah Trebuchet: Will the Phillies trade for a closer or is Seranthony their guy?

9:59	Justin Mason: Sound like the Phillies are adressing other needs first, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see them go get a “proven guy” for the stretch run.

9:59	Lazzaro Da Fietta: Thoughts on Mad Max Muncy rest of season? This is legit, right?