Justin Mason Baseball Chat- January, 29th 2019

January 29, 2019

Chat starting soon!

9:02	Justin Mason: Hey everyone,

9:02	Justin Mason: starting in a few minutes, so get your questions in. Please don’t repeat questions.

9:07	PortlandBeavers: With the Portland Diamond Project getting a 55 year lease on property they plan to build a stadium on, how soon do you think we see MLB baseball in Portland, and do you see a relocation from a current team or do you expect an expansion?

9:08	Justin Mason: Without knowing the details of the Mariners territorial rights, I would guess we will see new expansion teams in the next 5-10 years and I think Portland is high up on the list with Montreal.

9:09	Vegan Man!: Think Stroman can be a viable SP5 in a points league? Thanks!

9:09	Justin Mason: Not unless he gets traded out of Toronto. He needs to get off of turf.

9:09	N: Keeper league: should I keep Rafael Devers, Gleyber Torres, or try to hold on to both?

9:10	Justin Mason: I would try and hold both or sell high on Torres

9:10	Joe: Do the Cardinals need to add another piece or two to be considered division favorites?

9:10	Justin Mason: I think they do, but they could also win it without doing so. That division is wide open.

9:10	Larry Walker, Flock of Flame: Hi! AL only OBP: which speedster: Mallex Smith or A Mondesi?

9:11	Justin Mason: Close because of the OBP, but I will go with Mondesi

9:11	J Giles: Do you think Giles finds his old (good) form in Toronto? Worth keeping for $10 in al only?

9:11	Justin Mason: I think he will. He’s worth the gamble in AL only at that price.

9:11	Maris: Points/keeper league. Same price. Who you like: Luis Castillo or Jose Berrios? Leaning Castillo due to National League.

9:11	Justin Mason: Berrios for me unless you are shooting for the higher upside. Berrios is safer IMO

9:12	wolfs: Just listened to your catcher preview pod…nice work! Would any of those middle tier guys stand out as big risers or fallers in an OBP league? Thanks!

9:13	Justin Mason: Cervelli, Barnes, Posey, Jansen, Narvez, Flowers, Grandal, Ianetta all get bumps in OBP

9:13	hooha: How do you value Ozzie Albies in an OBP 5 keeper keep forever league?

9:13	Justin Mason: Top 50?

9:14

Moltar: How do you feel about Sale going in to 2019? I have an offer on the table to get him at a market-rate salary but it would cut in to my depth pretty harshly. It’s a h2h points league so pitchers are gold and top-5 starters are rarely available. But Sale also has injury concerns and always seems to fade during the h2h playoffs. So, I am torn.

9:14	Justin Mason: I am not that worried about Sale. Think he should be fine.

9:14	GSon: In your opinion.. is the popularity of Fantasy Baseball being undermined or energized by the advent of legalized sports gambling ??

9:14	Justin Mason: I think season long fantasy is fine. DFS may find themselves facing increased competition.

9:15	Vegan Man!: 12 team roto, keep 5 forever, with a 180 start limit (R, HR, RBI, SB, OPS and QS, ERA, WHIP, K’s, SV+HD). Who are your 5 keepers – Harper, Stanton, Carpenter, Suarez, Dee, Cain, Nola, Carrasco, Syndergaard. Thank you!

9:15	Justin Mason: Harper, Stanton, Carpenter, Suarez, Nola

9:16	PortlandBeavers: As a certified addiction counselor, how do you think the MLB should proceed in regards to marijuana use over opiates in pain mediation?

9:17	Justin Mason: I think each team should employ an addiction specialist. However, MLB shouldn’t legislate against use, unless there is an identifiable issue.

9:17	frado: Will Soto have a better career than Harper?

9:17	Justin Mason: No

9:17	HRR: How would you forecast the HOF class of 2020?

9:17	Justin Mason: I don’t. Worst popularity contest ever

9:17	Myles Straw’s grandmother: Any chance that Myles can break camp as a 4th OF?

9:17	Justin Mason: nope

9:18	Billy Bombers: Thanks for the Chat! 12 team, roto, keep-forever – is Votto, Eduardo Escobar too rich for Buxton and Jurickson Profar? Profar would be my starting 1B heading into the year, and also trying to compete this year.

9:18	Justin Mason: I want Votto side

9:18	Justin Mason: and that isn’t close.

9:18	The Dude: All the projection systems seem to LOVE Puig. Do you believe he can go 30/90/90/15 like the projections seem to have him? Do you think he hits in bottom half or top half of lineup? Would you rather have Pham or Puig this year?

9:19	Justin Mason: I think Puig has that upside, but he needs to stay on the field before I can buy those numbers. Give me Pham all day.

9:19	DraftCheat: Why do you have a personal vendetta against Adalberto Mondesi and his entire extended family?

9:19	Justin Mason: LOOOOOOOL

9:19	Justin Mason: I was huge on Mondesi coming into last season. It is the price that I can’t buy into.

9:19	wolfs: Is Votto going to be a steal in drafts this year? Still an on-base monster, context around him improving a lot…am I crazy for still wanting him over someone like Bellinger?

9:20	Justin Mason: Yup. I am getting him everywhere.

9:20	Justin Mason: Took him in the 5th of a 15 team NFBC league recently and I was stoked.

9:20	Vegan Man!: Last 2 keepers in a 14 team dynasty points league (points skewed towards power/OBP guys and dominant SP) – Felipe Vazquez, Andrus, Smoak, Choo, Dee Gordon, Samardzija? Thanks!

9:21	Justin Mason: Vasquez and Choo, I guess. Hard to tell without knowing the points set up.

9:21	hooha: What is the longest you’re willing to wait on starting pitchers in drafts?

9:21	Justin Mason: 4th or 5th round in a 15 teamer.

9:21	brian: Keep Bellinger or Chapman? I have Rizzo at first already in a H2H. I also do not enjoy watching Bellinger (aloof California guy). I also do not enjoy california.

9:21	Justin Mason: Bellinger for me, but I love chapman.

9:21	Aaron: I’m sitting on a $60 Bryce Harper heading into the Ottoneu cut deadline. Yay or nay at that price? With 4 or 5 teams heading into the draft with huge amounts of cap space, I feel like he’ll clear $60 in a redraft

9:22	Justin Mason: Ottoneu questions should be directed at Brad Johnson’s chat later today.

9:24	LudeBurger: I laughed quite a bit at the thread of you and your wife giving your daughter “the talk.”

9:24	Justin Mason: Thanks, I laugh so I don’t cry.

9:24	HRR: Bellinger or Hoskins in a 6×6 OPS?

9:24	Justin Mason: Hoskins

9:24	brian: Cubs Closer: Brach, Strop, Cishek, or does Joe mix and match?

9:24	Justin Mason: Strop

9:25	groot: Points Lg – need two keepers of these three – Robbie Ray, Jon Gray, Zack Godley. Thanks Justin!

9:25	Justin Mason: Ray and Godly

9:25	wolfs: What’s Francisco Mejia’s fantasy outlook this season (assuming he stays in SD)? Reasonable projection? High end projection? Thanks!

9:26	Justin Mason: If he stays in SD, I think he hits like 10-15 homers with .260 avg. May have hard getting consistent ABs because hedges is such a good defensive catcher.

9:27	Vegan Man!: Over/Under 30 HR for Christin Stewart this year? Think he can be a starting OF in a 14 team points league? Thanks!

9:27	Justin Mason: I think he will be just under

9:27	Justin Mason: but yeah, I think he will be viable.

9:27	Jason: I’ll give you a winter prediction: It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your life.

9:28	Justin Mason: seems legit

9:28	brian: Thoughts on Cutch in Philly?

9:28	Justin Mason: I like Cutch in Philly. Especially if harper is batting behind him. Could be a nice value where he is going as the power and speed should play up more in Philly.

9:29	Maris: Got last pick in first round — points league. For one year, who you like — Severino, Syndegaard, Buehler?

9:29	Justin Mason: Severino

9:29	brian: You think the Cubs should just play Schwarber every day?

9:29	Justin Mason: absolutely not

9:29	The Dude: Which side in a keeper league: Goldy/Machado or Lindor/Bryant? Worried about Bryant’s shoulder this year?

9:29	Justin Mason: Lindor side

9:29

Jason: Hey Justin – thanks for all your hard work. Need some help with extensions – 14 team mixed std 5×5. I’ve got both Bauer & Taillon in option years – can keep this year only at $5 or extend ($10 this year and $5 each additional years – max 3 more years). What do you think? I hate extending pitchers but all the top pitchers seem to be protected every year.

9:30	Justin Mason: I never extend. Especially not pitchers

9:31	Rick C: Who would you keep – Jansen at the cost of a 9th round pick, or Treinen at the cost of a 13th round pick?

9:31	Justin Mason: Treinen

9:31	HRR: solid answer to my HOF question btw. what a circus

9:31	Justin Mason: Thanks

9:31

Vegan Man!: How much of Robles’ value is tied to his projected plus plus defense? I feel like he’s one of those guys who will be a better actual player than fantasy player, and that his value will never be higher than it is now in Dynasty leagues. Fair assessment, or will he be a 1st round stud in a couple years? Thanks!

9:32	Justin Mason: I think he could be for sure.

9:32	brad: Justin in 2009 the Yankees won a WS with a 200M payroll on revenue reported around $240M, now their reported Revenue is around 600M plus, but they cant afford harper or machado….. Please explain

9:33	Justin Mason: Every team can afford them. This is the magic of Major League clubs. They have tricked fans into believing they can’t afford players.

9:38	Justin Mason: Sorry, lost my internet connection all of a sudden

9:38	Kc: Starting to fall for the Vlad hype, how soon is too soon to draft him?

9:39	Justin Mason: I think he shouldn’t be going in the top 30-40, but I get the hype.

9:39	Big Tuna: Who shows their human first…Scherzer, Sale, or Verlander?

9:39	Justin Mason: Sale as he has showed health issues as of late

9:39	frado: Should I consider trading Harper for Soto.. I am in a dynasty league keep for ever. I feel that Soto could have a better career than Harper.

9:39	Justin Mason: no

9:40	PortlandBeavers: What do you think about Caleb Smith this year? Could he be this years Wheeler albeit without the past success?

9:40	Justin Mason: No, Smith does not have Wheeler’s stuff.

9:40	Reds: Assuming Reds don’t send Senzel/Trammell, how much more do they need to do to be a playoff team (or atleast contender)?

9:40	Justin Mason: They need about 3 more starters and a few more relievers.

9:41	HRR: have you totally given up on brinson? prefer sierra to him?

9:41	Justin Mason: I haven’t given up on him. He has the tools to be a stud.

9:41	Chris: I just traded away Chris Taylor for Manny Margot in a keep forever 14-team OBP roto. That was smart…right?

9:41	Justin Mason: yup

9:41	Jorge: Is it past time to give up on Velasquez?

9:41	Justin Mason: yeah…

9:41	Dave in London: Thanks for chatting Justin. Do you think the “Two Starting Pitchers” strategy is the wave of the future for a majority of teams, or will its adoption be limited to a few teams?

9:42	Justin Mason: I think it will be toyed with by other teams, but I think teams will always prefer traditional starters.

9:42	Craig: Are secure save sources increasing in importance due to scarcity, kind of like steals are? Should I keep Kirby Yates over a high-floor low ceiling hitter like David Peralta?

9:43	Justin Mason: Yes. The uncertainty of bullpens is why the old “don’t pay for saves” moniker is passe. I can totally understand keeping Yates one Peralta. especially if other closers aren’t going to be available.

9:43	Vegan Man!: Do you think Garrett Hampson can hit 12-15 HR this year, because of his home park, to supplement his OBP/STL profile? Thank you!

9:43	Justin Mason: No, I don’t think he will hit that many bombs. More like a 5-7 guy.

9:44	Justin Mason: But he could steal a ton.

9:44	HRR: Dahl or Justin Upton in a redraft?

9:44	Justin Mason: Upton

9:44	LPFan: Is V Robles worth drafting?

9:44	Justin Mason: Of course

9:44	Los Dodgers: .280/75/25/90 a achievable line this year for Corey Seager?

9:44	Justin Mason: If he is healthy. I just don’t buy that he will be on the field the whole year

9:44	Justin Mason: and how difffernt is that line from deJong?

9:46	wolfs: Who will lead off for Philly ahead of Trout and Harper in 2021?

9:46	Justin Mason: Adam Haseley?

9:46	Slapshot: Do you buy Aaron Hicks’ breakout last year as legit? Think he has Top 30 OF potential for 2019?

9:46	Justin Mason: As long as he is healthy. Skills are legit.

9:46	Seymore: Are you as hyped as Sporer on Taillon?

9:47	Justin Mason: Definitely. I am a bit more worried about his health considering his history. Still love him though.

9:47	Moltar: Eno had an interesting piece about high-K youngsters who could maybe cut down the strike-outs and deliver on their potential. Who out of Brinson, Buxton, Mondesi (excluding his SB prowess) and Rosario do you think can take the leap?

9:47	Justin Mason: I think all could. I feel most confident about Buxton and Rosario.

9:48	Justin Mason: Mondesi will still be useful even if he doesn’t though. Good defender on a bad team. Same with Buxton.

9:48

brad: Justin, everyone is talking about how to fix baseball with free agency and all these teams tanking. First you can do a draft lottery to lessen the guarantee of finishing last, but how about the players asking the teams to open up the books for audit by one of the Big 4 accounting firms, then we can see the real numbers. I don’t trust these reported figures, like teams saying they don’t own the parking, but they seem to set the prices…

9:48	Justin Mason: How about a salary minimum cap? Each team needs to spend at least a certain amount.

9:49

Sean: Final keeper of 8 in 12 team dynasty with OBP, k, QS, k/bb as added categories. Last keeper down to albies or clevinger. Already have trout, Goldschmidt, machado, bregman, Hoskins, Cole, Paxton so not hurting for either side. With the dearth of 200ip starters, is it reasonable to keep clevinger over albies?

9:49	Justin Mason: yes

9:49	Ryan: Regarding Vlad, does that change in a 3 year keeper?

9:49	Justin Mason: If you are not playing for this year.

9:50	Carl: Trade Stanton for carrasco? Fair?

9:50	Justin Mason: sure

9:50	Pedro: Are you scooping up shares of Correa at his 49 ADP this year? Can we say last year was the injury bug or are there legit concerns?

9:50	Justin Mason: absolutely not. Need him to stay on the field.

9:53	High 5 Ghost: You’re comparing Seager to DeJong…what’s next? You gonna call DeJong a poor man’s Carlos Correa?!

9:53	Justin Mason: Awkward….

9:53	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Regarding a minimum spending cap, what is stopping teams from just taking on one or two bad contracts to reach the floor and tanking regardless?

9:53	Justin Mason: nothing

9:53	Jono: Could you justify paying $10 on Mallex Smith in a $260 5×5 roto?

9:53	Justin Mason: depends on size of league, but most likely yes

9:54

Dave Cameron: has anyone ever played in a league where in addition to the normal player pool, you’ve had say 5-10 historically great player seasons available at auction as well? It is a format I’ve wanted to play around with, but is kind of radical so hard to get 10-12 people on board. But it would be interesting to me to see how much of a regular $260 budget someone would pay, not just for the great stats, but the certainty of those stats. Like, Ty Cobb’s 1911 where he hit .420/8/147/127/83. Or Ruth’s 1921 with .378/59/177/171/17. Objectively, probably worth $70+ at auction, but will make it interesting to fill out the rest of your roster.

9:54	Justin Mason: I have no idea, but that sounds amazing.

9:54	Jono: Expectations on victor Robles despite a lost 2018 seems crazy high. Am i missing something? Are SBs so valuable that I can’t pass on keeping him?

9:55	Justin Mason: I mean, he was a top 5 prospect coming into last year and is now healthy and with a full time job on a good team.

9:55

Shirley Temple of Doom: just saw that you won’t be taking Ottoneu questions, so I’ll ask a different one. In my keep forever 6×6 H2H categories league I’d like some help with final SP cuts (K, QS, BAA, ERA, WHIP,SV). I have Gerrit Cole, Thor, Clevinger, Heaney, Castillo locked in. The next group is: Happ, Beiber, Eovaldi, Godley, Porcello, ERod. I need to cut two of them. Thoughts?

9:56	Justin Mason: Cut Beiber and Porcello

9:56	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Remember that season where Alfonso Soriano mashed for the Nationals?

9:56	Justin Mason: Peppridge Farms remembers

9:57	Carl: How do you feel about Strasburg this year? Trade Bellinger or too much

9:57	Justin Mason: Love Strasburg when he is healthy. Always a lot of risk there though. That isn’t a bad deal for either side.

9:58	Big Tuna: Who is your “Holy C*** I can’t believe he just drafted him in the 3rd” but ends up having a huge year player?

9:58	Justin Mason: Khris Bryant or Starling Marte.

9:59	Justin Mason: Though the first three rounds are stacked, so a lot of guys could easily return first round value.

9:59	Justin Mason: I got to go record the sleeper and the bust with Paul.

10:00

Justin Mason: As always, I can be reached on twitter at JustinMasonFWFB or on facebook at https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100008744507752&ref=bookmarks

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG