Justin Mason Baseball Chat - April 10th, 2018

9:00	Justin Mason: Alright, first ever chat, so hopefully it is set up right. Take it easy on me… or don’t

9:01

lmb326: am i panicking for no reason and should just have patience? or do i need to shake things up? i am dead last with OFF production in a 10 team mixed. my starters: russell martin, votto, merrifield, t. turner, donaldson, bregman, baez, semien, dexter fowler, margot, schwarber, puig, khris davis starting. on my bench: yelich, calhoun, bour, deshields. was thinking of picking up senzel and dropping bour …

9:01	Justin Mason: Don’t panic quite yet. It is way too early to be looking at the standings. You put time and effort into your draft prep, trust your process.

9:02	Cutch: Trade Bellinger for DeGrom?

9:02	Justin Mason: Yeah, I would do that.

9:02	OddBall Herrera: Hell of a start for Guerrero – I am starting to think his timeline may be more like Bregman’s (AAA in June, Majors in August), what say you?

9:02	Justin Mason: I don’t think he is up unless the blue jays are competing. I have a hard time seeing that with their offense.

9:03	Idiot Rocky: why call up Ryan McMahon from the minors only to have him rot on the bench? outlook ROS? would you replace him with a regularly playing batter in a H2H 14 team mixed?

9:03	Justin Mason: Man, I don’t get it at all. I think you can drop him especially if you are swimming in a bunch of injuries.

9:03	Sleepy: Justin, my man! Welcome!

9:03	Justin Mason: Thanks! I am sleepy as well. lol

9:04	Guest: J. Montgomery or Mikolas worth holding in at 14T H2H? Thanks!

9:04	Justin Mason: Depends on your other options, but I have some faith in Montgomery. Mikolas will have to improve quick to not get replaced by Flaherty.

9:04	CB: Any interest in acquiring Odor, even before the injury? Highest walk rate of his career, low LD rate, little to no Oppo hits yet, increased hard hit percentage

9:05	Justin Mason: I definitely would if the injury news isn’t horrific. I think he is pressing and that is a large reason for the struggles. Should rebound

9:05	Yikes: Why are you and Meg chatting at the exact same time?

9:06	Justin Mason: That is the time slot I was given. She is great so I won’t be offended if you jump over. but don’t please

9:06	El Duderudo: Mike Minor…what do you make of him? Can he be an effective starter? What kind of stamina is reasonable to expect from a guy who spent the last year in the pen? (I’m in a QS league so SP need to get to 6 innings to be useful)

9:06	Justin Mason: I have 0 faith in virtually the entire Rangers pitching staff including minor. Especially in a QS league.

9:07	normie daniels: keep forever 15tm points league, taillon or stroman enough return for devers?

9:07	Justin Mason: Depends on the points format and if you are competing this year or care more about the future. If you are all in now, then I think they are. If not, I hold onto Devers

9:08	brood550: Is this Yolmer Sanchez breakout for real? Also, is the Nick Ahmed break out real? Or just mirages?

9:08	Justin Mason: Ahmed is a mirage. Sanchez will regress, but he should get plenty of playing time in Chicago as they rebuild, so he has value in deeper formats.

9:08	Ombudsman: Justin! Happy first chat. You believe in Andrew Triggs (10.97 K/9, 2.94 FIP, 2.92 xFIP) or Reynaldo Lopez (7.62 K/9, 3.95 FIP, 4.48 xFIP) ??

9:09	Justin Mason: Don’t believe in Triggs at all. I was skeptical of Lopez until I watched his first two starts. Now I am starting to buy in.

9:09	Gus Chiggins: I have a deal on the table in my 14tm 5x5OPS keeper where I’m giving up a $26 arb eligible Mookie Betts and landing Vladdy Jr who I can sign for $5/3yrs after his prospect elig expires. Have Acuna and Tucker waiting in the minors to soften the blow of losing Mook. Am I crazy?

9:10	Justin Mason: Depends on when you plan on competing. I don’t know that Vlad Jr has Betts type impact for a bit. You should get more than Vald for a safe first rounder imo

9:10	Yorki: What are your thoughts on D Duffy? He was dropped in my league and I need SP help. Will he turn it around?

9:11	Justin Mason: He can’t possibly be this bad unless he is hurt, which I am fearful he is. He is worth taking a gamble on in a deeper format, but I have no shares by design.

9:11	Mike: Eugenio Suarez is dog meat, right? Any reason to hold him on the DL? Thumb injuries are bad..

9:11	Justin Mason: Supposedly this one isn’t as bad as others, but I am not a doctor. I am holding on to him in Tout.

9:11	Yu: Is Albies/Kingery a reasonable way to cover 2B this year? Always nervous when there’s little to no track record.

9:12	Justin Mason: Yeah, I have a lot of faith in both.

9:12	Chippy: Somehow ended up with 5 closers and I can’t trade the lower end guys (Strickland and Boxberger) for anything useful. Is it worth cutting bait on a guy like Strickland or do I try and wait until somebody breaks?

9:12	Justin Mason: I would try and give it a little bit. Closers are always overvalued in season and as we have already seen, things can change on a dime.

9:13	<Demonic Wail>: Altuve and J Monty for Freeman and Severino (h2h keeper league), who says no?

9:13	Justin Mason: The Freeman/Severino owner should say no.

9:13	Guest: How many innings will Yonny Chirinos pitch?

9:13	Justin Mason: 130?

9:13	lmb326: expectations for senzel if he gets called up?

9:15	Justin Mason: News just came out that they are moving him back to 3B. He should be up soon after April 14th. I could see him going 15/15 with a very nice average

9:15	Strat-o-matic: How do you approach FAAB in only leagues? Go heavy early, or save for trade deadlines?

9:15	Justin Mason: I tend to hoard my faab unless I am in dire need of something. The pool is so shallow that I don’t want to get in a bidding war over bad players.

9:15	SK: Looking for a RP that has SP eligibility (Yahoo 5×5). Any value from these guys — M. Gsellman, M. Montgomery or B. Norris? Thanks.

9:16	Justin Mason: I am really impressed by Gsellmen in the new role. Think he could be valuable in deeper formats.

9:16	Sean: Ryan Zimmerman. Is he just an .800 OPS-ish 1B guy? (that’s what he’s been since his torrid April last year). He was recently dropped in my 12 teamer. Still on waivers..

9:17	Justin Mason: Yeah, I am not a Zimmerman guy especially when you add in the injury risk. Gets a nice boost from the lineup, but I don’t know that he is worth rostering in shallower formats.

9:17	Derek: Think Barreto is going to get regular duty? Should I drop Ketel Marte for him?

9:18	Justin Mason: I wouldn’t drop Marte who has pretty much guaranteed playing time, but I like Barreto a lot.

9:18	Ohtani time: Ohtani for Syndergaard in Ottoneu fgpts?

9:18	Justin Mason: I am an Ottoneu novice, so I don’t want to steer you in the wrong direction.

9:19	Jake: 5 x5 OBP league (AL). Was offered Buxton and Graveman for Mancini and Junis. Your thoughts? SBs are good, but the rest of Buxton’s offensive game…

9:19	Justin Mason: Upside vs floor. I would go for it in a 12-team or shallower. Shoot I would take it in a 15-teamer if I had a safe average floor with the rest of my team.

9:20	Confused: When you are hungry, do you ever say to yourself “Me Growley?”. Oh wait, wrong chat

9:20	Justin Mason: looooool

9:20	WHIP Appeal : Trade Judge for Shohei? I have Shohei fever

9:20	Justin Mason: I am super impressed by Ohtani, but I am not ready to make that move yet.

9:20	J.W.: I get Gary Sanchez, Jose Ramirez, and Luis Castillo. He gets my McCullers, Grandal, and M. Franco. Who wins?

9:20	Justin Mason: You do. Stop talking to me and go hit accept.

9:21	Michelle: Welcome! Is this going to be a weekly thing?

9:21	Justin Mason: Yes! I will be here every Tuesday until Paul fires me.

9:21	Kakie Bryan: JM – thanks for giving us another weekly chat! You think Ozzie Albies can get to 20 homers this year? Would be way sooner than expected.

9:21	Justin Mason: Glad to be here. I don’t know that Albies gets to 20 bombs, but I could see 15. The steals and average are the mature tools.

9:21	John: I should trade Ohtani right? My heart is so attached already.

9:22	Justin Mason: If you can get a top 20-30 hitter I would.

9:22	Tate: Would you be using Acuna as trade bate or holding in a dynasty league? I was offered Blackmon for CMart and Acuna but I’m leaning towards declining.

9:23	Justin Mason: I have seen him go for so much more already. If you have waited this long, then why not wait to see if he does come up April 14th and then trade him for a fortune.

9:23	Cutch: Are you okay with punting steals in a 7×7 H2H league? Other categories are Hits and OPS.

9:23	Justin Mason: I love punting categories. Especially in a league with 14 categories.

9:23	Erik: Have any early strugglers left you genuinely worried on the hitting side?

9:24	Justin Mason: Not really. I don’t change my opinions this early on unless there is an injury, skill or role change.

9:24	CB: Are you ok with Asdrubal Cabrera as your starting 3B in an 18 team H2H points league? Lost Suarez

9:24	Justin Mason: I don’t love it, but in a league that deep, you take what you can get.

9:25	Pete: 6×6 obp league with wins and quality starts as a cat. 10 teams My Kris Bryant, Ohtani, and Boxberger for his machado and Severino a fair deal ? I’m thinking maybe it’s too lateral of a move perhaps but I’m trying to sell high on Ohtani just not really sure what’s fair

9:25	Justin Mason: I think that is a nice deal especially if you have other saves and don’t need Box

9:25	Alex: Where does Colin Moran’s upside rank in the 3B pool? Is the swing change driven HR boost last year (to 19 in 350 PAs) real, or is he is a 12 HR guy like the projection systems imply?

9:26	Justin Mason: I don’t think there is a ton of upside, but the projections systems are a bit conservative on him. I would say he is a 18-22 homer guy in PNC.

9:26	Shoeless One: Thanks for being here! 13-team AL-only with no bench. Drew Robinson or Jacoby Jones? And how long does Giolito last as a viable option?

9:27	Justin Mason: I’ll take Robinson because the Rangers really seem to like him. I am sticking with Giolito for a bit longer. The talent is there, but he will struggle when the mechanics get wonky.

9:27	Tate: Is Hoskins too much to offer up for Albies in a keep forever?

9:27	Justin Mason: yes

9:27	Andy: Justin – Your Roto Riteups genuinely make my mornings. Keep up the good wok!

9:27	Justin Mason: Thanks! I try to have fun with them

9:27	Yu: What are the odds McCullers produces as a top-20 pitcher this year?

9:28	Justin Mason: 50%? It is all health related for me. If he stay on the mound then he is a top 20 pitcher.

9:28	Mike: % of FAAB on Keynan Middleton?

9:28	Justin Mason: 5%. I don’t want to be involved in the Angels bullpen if I can help it.

9:29	Gimme Thor: With Rizzo out for at least a week I have a hole at 1B. Only decent guy on wire I see is Colin Moran, but I’d have to drop Baez to pick him up. I have Kingery for super utility and have more faith in him than Baez, but would you add Moran or just live with the hole for a week?

9:30	Justin Mason: You have to have3 someone else you can drop. I would hate to have a hole in my roster for a week, especially if the injury keeps him out longer, but I wouldn’t want to drop Baez. Maybe look to trade Baez for a 1B?

9:30	Erik: Garrett Richards through three starts: 27% K rate, 17% walk rate. Both career highs, and both are stats that stabilize quickly. What do you make of him so far?

9:30	Justin Mason: I looooove Richards and always have. Health and innings are the concern. Better for a shallower league because you can’t replace him easily in a deeper format.

9:31	Michelle: So… my FAAB did not go as planned and I ended up with Brian Johnson, Jose Urena, and Kirby Yates. Is there any hope for any of these guys in a deep mixer (14-team, 45 man rosters)?

9:31	Justin Mason: Yates just went on the DL I believe and I don’t think the other two are viable outside of the deepest of formats.

9:31	Tate: Triggs, Newcomb, or Velasquez?

9:31	Justin Mason: Newcomb I guess…

9:32	Justin (Hey that’s my name): Would it be prudent to offer my Alex Wood another owner’s Luis Castillo? I think Wood’s floor is safer… but I’m nervous about the velocity drop.

9:32	Justin Mason: I am higher on Wood than I am Castillo. I have both in TGFBI though.

9:32	Patty70Smith: Has james paxton just had a really bad start?

9:32	Justin Mason: Yeah, I am not too worried unless we start hearing injury concerns.

9:32	Chad Banks: Hey Justin, need a replacement for first or third. Best short term option out of Chapman/HanRam/Moran/B Anderson. Thanks Buddy

9:33	Justin Mason: CHAPMAN!!!!

9:33	Brad: I didn’t start Matt Boyd in weekly 15team roto because I was scared of the Yankees matchup on Sunday. I went with nate jones instead. Will I regret being timid?

9:34	Justin Mason: I don’t think you should regret it even if Boyd is good. I don’t like taking too many chances early. I hate starting with a deficit in my ratios.

9:34	Josh: Thoughts on Sean Newcomb after his dominant start in Coors? Think he’s on the verge of a breakout?

9:34	Justin Mason: No, he needs to develop a third pitch before I believe in a breakout. Could have some useful K’s but blowups will happen especially at Suntrust.

9:35	Ronald Acuña McDonaldson: 10 team H2H with standard 5 categories + XBH and OBP. I have Story and Addy. Simmons, Swanson and Owings available. Cut Russell for one of them?

9:35	Justin Mason: I would hold for now, but Simmons is the add for me if you get too nervous.

9:35	Ole Rude: Nick Senzel could be up soon.

9:35	Justin Mason: Yup. I would start adding him now.

9:35	Asking For a Friend: What kind of price would you be willing to pay for Bradley Zimmer in a 15 team league, given he is destined for the HOF?

9:36	Justin Mason: My first born child?

9:37	Justin Mason: Seriously though, I would be happy if I could get a discount with the early struggles. Try offering a hot top 200 guy. Like a Swanson or someone that is due serious regression.

9:38	Brett: Senzel is playing 3B in AAA tonight. I’m guessing they’ll be calling him up after his magic arby deadline (I mean… after he “figured things out”)… if he plays regularly in the bigs this season, what is a reasonable expectation?

9:38	Justin Mason: I could see him going 15/15 with a very nice average

9:38	Moltar: Eugeni-oh no, and he was looking so good too! Think Matt Chapman can keep it going while Suarez is out, or should I be looking at the wire for more stability?

9:38	Justin Mason: Yes! I love Chapman and his elite defense should keep him in the lineup even if he struggles. Should be owned in just about every format.

9:39	Gimme Thor: With Rizzo on DL for at least a week (I hope no longer) and have a hole at 1B. Only decent guy on wire I see is Colin Moran, but I’d have to drop Baez. I do have Kingery for super utility. But would you drop Baez for Moran to fill hole or just live with the hole til Rizzo returns?

9:39	Justin Mason: Guys, I will try and get to every question. Lets try and not fill up my queue with repeats. Just slows down the process.

9:39	Scuba Steve: You buying the Jacob Junis breakout? Viable in 10 team mixed?

9:40	Justin Mason: I am and I’m not. Not enough strikeouts for me, but I think he can help in the ratios. Problem is the Royals suck and so you are losing out on wins too.

9:40	brood550: Thoughts on Carson Fulmer?

9:40	Justin Mason: Future is in the bullpen. White Sox will let him start for now, but I don’t want him on my teams.

9:41	Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

9:41	Justin Mason: How do you like them apples?

9:41	Pops: Nice to have you as our chat mediator. Who’s the best DL stash on the pitching side of the ball?

9:41	Justin Mason: I like both Reds starters, Finnegan and Desclafani.

9:41	jacob h cornhole: odor…izzi any good?

9:42	Justin Mason: kind of meh to me.

9:42	Moelicious: Any love for Nick Delmonico? I have four hitters on the DL and need power. One of your colleagues said he could put up Suarez numbers

9:43	Justin Mason: Who is this colleague? I want what he is smoking. I don’t actually because I have issues. Delmonico is whatever. Will play with a rebuilding club, but no way do I believe in him that much

9:43	Slamboni: Braun for Vizcaino fair? I have Minter and my only other closer ATM is Boxberger

9:43	Justin Mason: That is giving up too much for Viz

9:44	o’HOOLIGAN’S: Trade Advice – which side in 12-tm roto 5×5? Raisel Iglesias/Jose Martinez for Luis Castillo/Andrew Miller

9:44	Justin Mason: Really depends on what you need, but I lean Iglesias

9:44	DDS: Who are you, and what qualifies you to chat with us? 🙂

9:45	Justin Mason: I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

9:45	Rob: Twenty team league and I have room to pick up a lottery ticket: Beede, Barria, or Harvey?

9:45	Justin Mason: Beede for me because he has a real shot at staying the rotation. Park helps too.

9:45	jacob h cornhole: are you buying a breakout season from ian kennedy? what in tarnation am i witnessing

9:45	Justin Mason: nope

9:45	KD: thoughts on buxton’s struggles? Are you buying or selling?

9:46	Justin Mason: Buying if I can get a major discount on the draft day price. The average will be awful at times, but the talent is there and the elite defense will give him a lot of latitude to work it all out.

9:46	Moltar: SP(ur)RP Alert! Do you like Lugo or Gsellman more for the Mets. Lugo seems to be getting longer outings, but Gsellman seems closer to saves>

9:47	Justin Mason: I prefer Lugo, but I like Gsellmen too.

9:47	WhoNeedsDefense: 12 team obp, slg, qs, & k/bb league: Archer and Mazara for Lindor – who do you like?

9:47	Justin Mason: Lindor

9:47	Mike: What are your thoughts on Giolito? Give him a pass due to weather or was his ST just a tease? Getting tired of buying this fools gold..

9:47	Justin Mason: Young guy that can struggle with his mechanics. I am holding if I can

9:47	Fife Cat: Sensible FAAB for Senzel in a 12 team mixed redraft, budget of $200? I’m thinking of throwing $6 at him.

9:48	Justin Mason: I think he may go for more.

9:48	Gimme Thor: Is it worth keeping Sal Perez in my only DL slot when I could have Rizzo there or other future injured guys? I have Ianneta who is looking pretty good.

9:48	Justin Mason: I am holding Perez. Reports say he should be back at the beginning of the timetable.

9:48	zurzles: Hold onto Junis and/or Newcomb in shallow leagues? (10 tm 5×5 H2H)

9:49	Justin Mason: I would hold Newcomb because the K upside, but they are both streamer for me in a 10 team.

9:49	Guest: Drop JorMont or Marquez….. for Junis, JA Happ, Folty or Reynaldo Lopez? Or hold those two..?

9:49	Justin Mason: I have no problem dropping Montgomery or Marquez for Lopez.

9:49	Biggy: Trading Bum to get Xander fair? Already have Ohtani, DeGrom, Yu, Quintana, Morton.

9:49	Justin Mason: Yes

9:49	Ty: Tyson Ross is back! Agree or disagree?

9:50	Justin Mason: He is back, until he is not.

9:50	HappyFunBall: He’s contending, I’m rebuilding. He wants Cole … is Moncada + Alford enough? I’m already in on Albies as my long term 2B, so Moncada would be a MI

9:50	Justin Mason: No, that is not enough. Alford has lost a lot of value. Get a different piece with Mocada.

9:50	Ty: Any thoughts on Mahle or Skaggs?

9:51	Justin Mason: I have always liked Skaggs, but injuries are an issue with him. I’m not a Male backer.

9:51	Chris: What is the general strategy for FAAB bidding in cutline? how much do you think it will take to get the average player?

9:51	Justin Mason: Not a cutline player sorry.

9:52	Biggy: Name 2 small sample stars that you think might be for realzzzzzzzz

9:52	Justin Mason: Matt Chapman and Gregory Polanco

9:52	Biggy: You a strat-o-matic fan at all?

9:52	Justin Mason: Never done it

9:53	Andy: Just flipped Cozart and Leone for Deshields and K. Middleton. I had plenty of MI depth so losing Cozart doesn’t hurt too bad. Basically upgraded SB’s for the future and swapped 2 save spec guys… Fair trade?

9:53	Justin Mason: Yeah, that’s fair

9:53	Monstrosity: Considering dropping C. Taylor for Marwin G. But I’m concerned About Marwin’s playing time when Gurriel comes back. I’m afraid Taylor Will Not Duplicate last year.

9:53	Justin Mason: Too early to bail on Taylor

9:53	Biggy: Just traded Kenley for Ohtani, pitcher. Tell me how glorious I am.

9:53	Justin Mason: I will not.

9:53	Cal: Kyle “Ted” Tucker is called up before or after May 15th?

9:53	Justin Mason: Before

9:53	Brad: Have you given Ben Brennies a raise yet?

9:54	Justin Mason: Ben is the plague of FWFB. Cant get rid of him.

9:54	Biggy: Maikal Franco a good fill in for my sneaky Suarez pick?

9:54	Justin Mason: Definitely.

9:54	Gimme Thor: I have submitted two questions and don’t see them appearing at all. How does this chat work?

9:54	Justin Mason: Got to give me time to get to them buddy.

9:55	bleepbloop: dynasty league (keep forever, no inflation), 6×6 with OBP/QS added. what do you think about this trade: Dee Gordon and Chris Taylor for Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Quintana?

9:55	Justin Mason: I can understand doing it if you are ok on speed and need pitching.

9:55	Chris: What is the strategy you guys employ for the FAAB bidding in Cutline? How much do you think it will cost me to get a player that isn’t necessarily super sought after? I need to replace a 3b desperately and unforunately invested a ton in Dustin Fowler lol

9:55	Justin Mason: Not a cutline player

9:55	Pink Oil Can Floyd: You see Faria sniffing a sub-4.00era/1.28whip ROS? Is he rosterable if the Rays are limiting him to what seems like 6 innings max?

9:56	Justin Mason: I think he could, but I am skeptical that there is much upside that makes him worth the trouble

9:56	bleepbloop: dynasty league (keep forever, no inflation), 6×6 with OBP/QS added. what do you think about this blockbuster: Gary Sanchez + Jose Quintana for Alex Bregman + Dee Gordon

9:56	Justin Mason: Fair deal. Just depends on what you need

9:57	Josh: Is Moncada someone you’re in on this year? He was dropped in my 12 teamer and was thinking of putting in a claim

9:57	Justin Mason: If you are punting average or playing OBP then I like Moncada.

9:57	Asking For a Friend: how much does the Robles shoulder injury affect his value this year?

9:57	Justin Mason: Depends on the severity. Doesn’t help

9:57	weezy: Senzel called up soon… that seems a bit bold, no? Think it’s a similar timeline for Acuna and Tucker? And which is best for this year?

9:58	Justin Mason: I am still skeptical on Acuna being called up mid April, but I think Senzel and Tucker are. Obviously Acuna has the upside, but I am stashing the other two

9:58	Biggy: I have Yu, Quintana, Ohtani, and Morton left if I do this trade: DeGrom and Bum for Cano and Xander. Would you do it? They would replace Nunez and Inciarte.

9:58	Justin Mason: I think you should get more for deGrom personally.

9:59	Aaron: Buy, sell, or hold on Ryan Zimmerman? 10 team mixed w/ OBP and SLG categories. Thanks

9:59	Justin Mason: Sell

9:59	bleepbloop: in a 6×6 league with QS, how many of my 5 bench spots should be SP? Most of the league is leaning towards 4/5

9:59	Justin Mason: 3-4

9:59	CubFan: Does Colome get traded this year? They shopped him in the off season with no takers. And he’s already blown 2 chances. If so, what chance does Alvardo have at getting a shot? He’s a lefty that sits at 97 and had an excellent ST and has looked good so far.

9:59	Justin Mason: I think he will. The Rays want to get something back for him