Jose Reyes Bounces Back … At Least For Now

It’s been more than a decade since Jose Reyes broke into the majors, and for this Mets fan, who grew up in Shea’s baseball wasteland of the ’90s when the likes of Jay Payton, Paul Wilson and Rey Ordonez were paraded around as can’t-miss future superstars, the teenaged shortstop’s arrival was indescribably refreshing and exciting. Here, at last, was a homegrown all-star who was a natural leadoff hitter, excellent fielder and stolen base machine whose energy, smile, youth and awe-inspiring talent seemed to spell the coming of better days in Flushing.

Eleven years and two teams later, it’s still a bit unsettling to talk about Reyes as an aging ballplayer, though his injury history and 31 years of age make it unavoidable. But the star power continues to shine, as Reyes this year finished second among all shortstops in Zach Sanders’ end of the year rankings, first at the position in standard CBS formats and 36th overall on ESPN’s Player Rater, re-establishing his credentials as an early-round candidate after an injury-marred 2013 campaign.

Compiling 655 plate appearances atop a Blue Jays lineup that finished fourth in baseball in wOBA, Reyes scored 94 runs while stealing 30 bases and batting .287. It was a good season almost no matter how you slice it: he was essentially as productive from the left side of the plate as he was the right side; he remained effective away from the hitter-friendly confines of the Rogers Centre; and after a bit of a slow start, he was consistent throughout the entire year.

That doesn’t mean the season — and, more to the point, its implications for 2015 — wasn’t without its red flags. Reyes hammered out enough line drives to back up what was a solid .312 BABIP, but his 11.8 infield hit percentage was easily a career high and probably will be difficult to repeat in 2015. His Swing% spiked to 49 percent, also a career high, though it’s worth noting that most of the rise was based on a soaring swing rate within the strike zone.

That aggressiveness, not surprisingly, took a toll on his BB%, which, along with his OBP, was his lowest in four seasons. Meanwhile, his SwStr%, while still solid, continued to climb for the third straight season, and that’s now two years in a row with a K% north of 11 percent, a mark he hadn’t previously eclipsed in a full season since 2006.

Also of note, Reyes’ batted ball distance continued what has become an annual decline, to the point where his 253.94 feet in 2014 finished behind powerhouses such as Mike Aviles and Omar Infante, and the 32 stolen base attempts were the lowest of his career over the course of a full season. It’s also possible that the Blue Jays’ lineup could be weaker next year, which wouldn’t do Reyes’ ability to score runs any favors.

Finally, we need to address the injury concerns. He’s averaged just 115 games a season over the past six years, landing on the disabled list six times in that stretch. (For those keeping track, 2012 was the only season in that span in which he avoided a DL stint.) An ankle sprain cost Reyes two-and-a-half months in the first half of 2013, and although he had a basically healthy season in 2014, a hamstring strain caused him to miss the first three weeks of April.

None of this, of course, is to vilify Reyes, who, for a guy turning 32 in June, is allowed to begin entering the downswing of his career, and besides, he’s certainly not alone among high-performing, high-risk shortstops. The position remains one of fantasy’s thinnest, and even a declining Reyes could legitimately be seen among its top five heading into 2015 drafts.

The question is when to pounce on him, as Reyes, position scarcity aside, clearly still has the ability to help owners across the spectrum. But the injury concerns are well-founded, the steals and home runs likely will continue to trend downward, and, if he continues his more aggressive trend at the plate (and loses a few infield hits), the batting average could fade as well.

Reyes, as usual, will be a tempting target on draft day, but chances are good most leagues will have at least one owner willing to pay for the best-case scenario, valuing his shortstop eligibility over the reliability of other players at deeper positions. Considering he’ll cost no less than an early-round pick, it seems hard to justify such a gamble.