Jose Quintana: Stud or Dud?

The White Sox were busy conscripting new talent these last few weeks. While the club still has weaknesses, the top of the rotation is well-addressed with Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija, and the topic of today’s analysis, Jose Quintana. He’s coming off a season in which he threw over 200 innings with nine wins, 178 strikeouts, a 3.32 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. You might be surprised to learn the total package was worth only $5. Per FantasyPros, his average cost was just $2, so his owners still made a decent bargain.

Prior to last season, Quintana was a frequent guest of my Daily Grind column. His unique blend of adequacy made him a valuable streaming candidate. After two straight solid seasons, including a 5.3 WAR campaign in 2014, we can expect Quintana to draw a lot more attention on draft day. The question is, do we want to be involved in the bidding?

Quintana features a 91.6 mph fastball and a swinging strike rate between eight and nine percent (8.3 SwStr% in 2014). He limits free passes (2.34 BB/9 in 2014). His ground ball rate (usually around 44 percent) and BABIP generally hovers around league average. Let’s turn to his pitch mix.

He relies on four pitches, although he also tosses a cutter on occasion. Generally speaking, he’s a fastball/curveball guy against fellow lefties. Versus righties, he mixes in more change-ups to keep those opposite-handed foes off balance. As a result, he has no discernible platoon. As for location (heat map below), he works lefties and righties similarly. He focuses on low, glove side pitches. Curiously, you’d think right-handed hitters could punish that approach, but he was able to keep them off balance.

Any FanGraphs initiate can point out the obvious concern – his home run to fly ball ratio. After two seasons in the double digits, Quintana cut the rate in half to 5.1 percent. Unfortunately for Quintana, U.S. Cellular Field ranks among the most homer friendly parks in the game. We have every reason to believe he’ll regress back to league average. There is good news. His 3.37 xFIP and 3.50 SIERA last season suggest that regression won’t destroy him.

Our old friend Steamer expects a pretty ho hum season from Quintana, with 182 innings, 11 wins, 7.67 K/9, a 3.95 ERA, and 1.27 WHIP. Given the improvements to the White Sox lineup and bullpen, I’ll happily project a more bullish line. He’s been remarkably healthy and efficient over his short career. All pitchers are injury risks, but that is less of a concern with Quintana.

If he reaches 200 innings for a third straight campaign, I think a 15 win season is within reach. It’s certainly not likely, but it’s not outlandish. He’s consistently solid, which should give the ChiSox a chance to win each and every outing. I’m more or less on board with Steamer’s strikeout and WHIP estimates, but I do think a 3.95 ERA is a little pessimistic. I’d bet on his career ERA of 3.50 when determining a price.

The overall picture is something like a high ERA Lance Lynn or perhaps Alfredo Simon with more strikeouts. Lynn was worth $12 last season while Simon finished with $6 of value. You should probably be targeting Quintana at around $8. He should be viewed first and foremost as a fantasy innings eater who won’t hurt your ratios. If you get lucky with a pile of wins, all the better.