Jorge Soler is the Safest Cubs Prospect
Over the next few months, we’ll find out if the Cubs plan to contend in 2015. Team president Theo Epstein teased as much during a press conference at the end of the season, and if a pitcher like Jon Lester or Max Scherzer joins a rotation that has already dramatically exceeded expectations thanks to the breakouts of Jake Arrieta and rookie Kyle Hendricks, there will be little reason to doubt him.
The Cubs’ embarrassment of hitter prospect riches is about to shed its prospect label, and their offense should quickly provide the primary strength of the team. Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara, and Jorge Soler each made it to the majors in 2014, and Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Albert Almora should all be soon behind them. In addition to actual team success, those prospects should transform the team’s fantasy potential. In 2014, the Cubs scored the fifth fewest runs in baseball and gave 1,281 plate appearances to Junior Lake, Nate Schierholtz, Ryan Kalish, Mike Olt, and Ryan Sweeney, who combined for more than three wins below replacement.
Before his promotion, Baez was near the top of everyone’s prospect rankings, and Bryant and Russell will be there until they get the call. As such, it is easy to assign the benefits of the Cubs’ expected improvements specifically to them in fantasy. I think that is a mistake. Soler may have never matched their statuses as top five prospects in baseball, but his skill set translates especially well to fantasy production. Meanwhile, the biggest risk for many of the Cubs top prospects’ 2015 fantasy success will likely be each other. There is a lot of positional overlap that could force the Cubs to leave some of their ready prospects in the minors unless they make a trade. Soler is the one that is least impacted by that logjam, which makes him the safest of their prospects to own this season.
It is easy to see Soler’s fantasy potential. In just under 100 plate appearances last season, he hit .292 with five home runs and 20 RBI, which prorate to 31 home runs and 124 RBI over a 600-plate appearance full season. Steamer is much more pessimistic with a projection of a .266 average, 23 home runs, and 78 RBI, but none of Soler’s peripherals from 2014 stand out as a red flag. His .339 BABIP is comparable to other players with similar power (.573 SLG) and batted ball distributions (52 percent GB%). The nine qualified players with at least a .450 slugging and 45 percent groundball rate with 12 or fewer steals in 2014 combined for a .317 BABIP. Soler also avoided the issue that plagued Baez (41.5 percent), Alcantara (31.0 percent) and a host of other rookie hitters: a high strikeout rate. Soler’s 24.7 percent strikeout rate is moderate for a player with his power, and it is supported by a near-20 percent strikeout rate at his two most recent stops in the minors.
As a right fielder, Soler has little competition for playing time from other Cubs veterans or prospects. Schierholtz, Sweeney, and Justin Ruggiano had the most playing time there for the team last season, and Ruggiano was the best of the lot with 0.4 WAR. The other prospects are fighting for time in the infield and center field. Russell and Baez are both shortstops—as is incumbent Starlin Castro—and pushing either player to third base conflicts with Bryant and second base could conflict with Alcantara. The Cubs already seemed to settle on Alcantara in center field, but that’s where Almora plays, too. That leaves two players without a position, and any of them could be affected except Soler.
Soler will likely be drafted in the late-30s or early-40s among outfielders amid a run of intriguing young options like Gregory Polanco, Mookie Betts, Wil Myers, and Marcell Ozuna. Soler doesn’t stand out to me over those other options, but he is the one who I think has the best chance of slipping an extra few rounds in fantasy drafts, in which case I like him quite a bit.
Scott Spratt is a fantasy sports writer for FanGraphs and Pro Football Focus. He is a Sloan Sports Conference Research Paper Competition and FSWA award winner. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter – @Scott_Spratt
He’s got a clear path to playing time. Less K and BB concerns than Baez or even Bryant for me. Biggest concern I’ve got with Soler is injuries. Hopefully improved diet and conditioning (which were discussion points during this season after several hamstring injuries) help take care of that concern.
Steamer’s projection for Soler is criminally low.
He could beat the projection sure, but if you look at his minor league numbers, all steamer is doing is regressing them a little bit. I don’t see it out of the norm really.
Here’s a rough average of Soler’s minor league numbers :
BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC
10.43% 18.61% 0.234 0.366 0.318 0.393 0.552 0.420 156
That’s more than a little regression.
Soler also hit .210 in his last 40 at bat, so the chance that he need to make further adjustment to the pitchers adjustment is high. Afterall most cubs fan were ready to put Baez in the hall of fame after his first 40 at bat. Soler is less likely to struggle compared with the other cubs prospect which have lots of red flags, but he might still struggle like normal rookies and sophomores
i think so too. even if you agree with steamer, those numbers are close to what ozuna did last year which made him a top 30 OF’er.
im interested to see what is adp is next season. after an impressive 100 PA’s, i could see owners jumping early to grab him, nullifying any draft day value he has.
Yuck how about this :
BB%
10.43%
K%
18.61%
ISO
0.234
BABIP
0.366
AVG
0.318
OBP
0.393
SLG
0.552
wOBA
0.420
wRC
156
You may be right, but I generally don’t mind a conservative outlook based on:
* his age and the small sample of performance
* he rarely stayed anywhere long enough for the pitchers to get to know him
* he may never have faced a significant adjustment period, and if anyone can figure out how to make him go through one, it’s major league pitchers.
Fair enough.
2015 Rookie of the Year
shush, no more articles on soler. got to keep the hype train off the rails so I get him cheap
son, that hype train left last year after his callup. you’ve been left behind at the station waiting for the next train.
Next train, name of…who?
I have Soler, Ozuna, Betts and J.D. Martinez in the outfield as keepers and a loaded IF with Machado, Abreu, Tulo and Fielder.
I am going to fill in some holes with the 6 spots that aren’t my keepers. I drafted Mookie in a taxi draft. I feel good about my team if they can stay healthy.
Jorge Soler was compared to Yasiel Puig, but at least some scouts believe he’s a better hitter. He’s got more power and less speed. Health concerns aside, he could be a monster locked into the most team friendly contract in all of baseball, his ceiling is massive and if it weren’t for “make-up concerns” that scouts love to point to, he would have been a victim of the hype machine I think.
Scott, nice article, read it and just thought “Amen,” someone gets it. The only guy that excites me almost as much as him in the Cubs system is Addison Russell. If you’re in a keeper league, and people aren’t cued into how high Soler’s ceiling is, buy buy buy, the window to buy at a reasonable price is closing!
I like how you put “make-up concerns” in quotes, like the guy didn’t grab a bat and run towards another team’s dugout during a brawl.
Yeah if you put aside health and make-up concerns he looks peachy. Unfortunately you can’t just put those aside and isolate the best parts of player.
Soler contract doesn’t automatically stay “most team friendly”; he has a clause that lets him opt into salary arbitration once he qualifies. This is effectively a win-win for him; 9 years / 30M was his worst case scenario.
He was a 21 year old kid and the other kid was saying horrible things about his Mom, maybe he’s a Mama’s Boy, a Mama’s Boy that can crush. Tell me James, do you only take players that are choir boys in your fantasy league? If so, can I play in it and can we play for a lot of money? How about you steer clear of a guy who wrecked at three levels of baseball last year and shows nothing in his numbers that suggest any kind of significant regression? Then, I’ll take him in the 10th round and run the table.
Not sure about you, but I don’t lose points in any of my roto leagues for dugout brawls when players are in the MiLB, strong argument though, thanks for playing, now go back to your lincoln logs.
Sean, I didn’t know that, interesting, thanks for pointing that out. I wonder if they’ll renegotiate his whole contract if he plays well at the beginning of the 2015 season and lock him up for the next several years like they did with Rizzo?
They might try. Basically because he just made the majors now, the end of the original contract (2020) lines up with when he would hit the 6 years of service time assuming he is now up to stay. If he was to end up with some minor league time next year for some reason, that could delay his eventual free agency to 2021. I think in terms of whether to offer him an extension, there is no difference in strategy between Soler and any other player; presumably it’s to their benefit to do so if they are able to buy out years of free agency.
Where Soler wins (to start) is that he will make 8 million over the next three years instead of being at league minimum (he is well short of super 2). So the question about extension would depend on what they think he might get in arbitration assuming he opts for that instead of the 12 million over 3 years, and can they buy out years of free agency in the process.
I am no expert but I think Soler’s contract might hurt their chances to extend him. Usually a young player would extend because it gives them a downside guarantee if something happens to them. Soler already has his downside guarantee.
I’m stuck in a pickle. I have to choose between keeping Soler and Betts for at least the next 4 seasons. Which to choose?
I’d keep Soler. I think he’ll have more protection in that lineup.
Plus, all teams in the AL East are trying to compete. Not sure you can say the same about Milwaukee and Cincinnati.
Can you keep them both?
Assuming you “believe” in both, I would probably opt for the guy with more power, because that’s getting increasingly hard to find.
The odds are at least one or two of those prospects will struggle in the major, just like Baez and alcantara really struggled in the major last year. A lot of those guys also carried some red flags, which ml pitcher can exploit ie Baez. I am less high on the cubs then a lot of people next year, because I do not think playing 4 prospects or 5 in a ml lineup and watching them learn and maybe fail = winning. I see next year as more of a transition year for the cubs
After Pablo re-signs with San Fran, if Ben calls Theo and offers Blake Swihart + Henry Owens + Garin Cecchinni for Kris Bryant, does Theo hang up or does he start discussions?
Is Bryant untouchable?
Yeah that’s not enough for Bryant. No one is fully untouchable though but the risk of trading for the number one prospect is probably so great due to what you’d have to give up so as to make it nearly impossible