Jordan Rosenblum’s 2026 Bold Predictions

This article highlights my bold predictions for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. Like last year, I’ll set the over/under at three of these being right, but my goal is more to give the reader ideas than to maximize acccuracy.  As the creator of OOPSY, my bold predictions often lean on OOPSY outlier projections, although I will often cite other projection systems as well. I have listed my bold predictions in approximate order of least to most bold.

Cody Ponce 폰세 outperforms Tatsuya Imai.

Ponce and Imai each landed a three-year contract this offseason, with Imai receiving $54 million and Ponce receiving $30 million. Ponce is coming off an excellent KBO season, as well as a few solid NPB seasons, while Imai has been elite throughout his NPB career. This one is not actually much of a bold take if you go by the projections, with Steamer, THE BAT, and ZiPS all preferring Ponce (OOPSY does not project Ponce), but it’s bold enough if going by ADP. We now have an early read on spring training Stuff+ on these two now and Imai comes out slightly above average whereas Ponce comes out slightly below, but the gap is not big enough to outweigh the gap in projections for me.

Munetaka Murakami leads the league in strikeouts while mashing 35 home runs.

The FanGraphs projection systems are in agreement that Murakami will do a lot of striking out, walking, and homering this year, with OOPSY projecting a 15% walk rate, a 34% strikeout rate, and 30 home runs over 588 plate appearances. Projections have him rated around 100th best projected hitter using the FanGraphs auction calculator with 15-team Main Event settings, while he’s the 129th hitter off the board in February NFBC drafts. The rareness of his Gallo-esque profile has potentially made drafters a bit too risk-averse here.

Grayson Rodriguez eclipses 140 innings.

Rodriguez has struggled with a litany of arm injuries these last few years, to the point where the Orioles grew tired of waiting for him to get healthy and shipped him to the Angels. While he has been consistently dealing with one arm issue or another, he has also avoided any major surgeries and, more importantly, he is healthy now, averaging 96 MPH on his fastball this spring, the same average fastball velocity he had the last time we saw him healthy, in 2024. My most successful bold prediction in last year’s article was on Jacob deGrom eclipsing 150 innings, which was basically a bet on the randomness of pitcher health. Academic research has consistently demonstrated that most of the variation in pitcher injuries is unpredictable, with known determinants of injury risk like velocity only explaining a small piece of the injury puzzle.

Julian Garcia makes his MLB debut.

Garcia was last seen as a 35+ FV prospect in the Phillies organization in 2022. Since then, he had been dominating in the independent American Association for the Kansas City Monarchs until the Reds signed him midway through the 2025 season. They gave him three Double-A starts, where his run of excellence continued. The 30-year-old enters 2026 with a solid OOPSY projection, albeit based on a tiny sample of data. His spring training fastball velocity is up to 94 MPH per Baseball Savant, whereas he sat in the 87-90 MPH range in our 2021 Updated Phillies report, the last time our prospect team reported on him. Given his home park, Garcia may not be super useful in standard 15-team leagues even if he does debut, but he has a shot at being rosterable in deeper formats.

Reid Detmers breaks out, rating as a top 30 starting pitcher per the FanGraphs auction calculator using standard Main Event settings.

The Angels are committted to giving Detmers a long look in the rotation this year and he projects well per Steamer and especially OOPSY, rating as 66th and 40th best projected SP, respectively, using the FanGraphs auction calculator with Main Event settings. Both projection systems account for the fact that he’ll be stretched out, dinging his velocity, K%, BABIP, and HR/9 projections compared to if he was used in relief, but even accounting for the role change he still comes out projecting well. Detmers has excelled at doing the stuff projection systems like in recent years, consistently posting a strong K% minus BB%, while he has struggled in more luck-based metrics projection systems don’t care as much about, like BABIP.

Evan Carter stays healthy, shakes the platoon, and breaks out, with at least 600 plate appearances, 15 home runs, and 25 stolen bases.

A back injury limited Carter to 220 PA in 2025, but he was effective when he was on the field, with a 104 wRC+, and aggressive on the base paths, with, 14 stolen bases. Carter is feeling good this spring, with hopes of stealing 30 bases. Carter has a robust -13 wRC+ vs. LHP over his career, but platoon splits are notoriously random, and he has only had a tiny sample of 68 PA vs. LHP spread across three seasons. Steamer projects him for an 85 wRC+ vs. LHP, which could be enough to keep him in the lineup almost everyday given his defensive chops in the outfield.

Denzel Clarke’s glove keeps him in the lineup enough to rack up three WAR, 15 home runs, and 25 stolen bases.

Clarke projects as a below average hitter, but offers enough power and speed to be a useful fantasy contributor if he’s playing everyday, especially in Sacramento. He’s OOPSY’s top projected defensive centerfielder, which should keep him in the lineup consistently, giving him a shot to shatter his 420-PA Depth Charts projection.

Either Mason Montgomery or Graham Ashcraft lands a closing job.

Montgomery and Ashcraft have the talent to be strong closers per OOPSY, with each projected to be the best reliever on their team by ERA by a comfortable margin. Neither is next up for saves, however, so they’ll need to perform while the guys ahead of them in the hierarchy struggle, get hurt, or get traded. I’ll count this one as correct if RosterResource deems either of these guys the top closing option on his team at any point this season.

Dynasty bold prediction: Aron Estrada and Ty Johnson continue their breakouts, reaching 75% ownership levels in Fantrax by November 1st.

OOPSY likes Estrada and Ty Johnson as top 100 prospects given their impressive performances over the course of their minor league careers. Estrada made it to Double-A in 2025 and has a shot to hit his way into Baltimore this year; this spring, he has already dialed up the exit velocity meter to 112 MPH. Johnson also could make his Rays debut this year if things break right after reaching Double-A in 2025. The 75% ownership threshold is reserved for consensus top 100 prospects that are close to MLB ready (at time of writing, Estrada and Johnson are at 25% and 42% owned on Fantrax, respectively).

Emmanuel Rodriguez out-homers Konnor Griffin.

Unlike Griffin, Rodriguez does not look like he has a shot at cracking the Opening Day roster, probably making this prediction a little too spicy. Indeed, Depth Charts projects an extra 450 PA for Griffin this year compared to Rodriguez. Griffin also has a big edge in projected stolen base rate and batting average and defensive value. What is the path to being right here? Rodriguez has better wRC+ projections per ZiPS and OOPSY, with a small-ish edge in projected power. If he crushes the minors and receives an early opportunity, he could receive more playing time than expected and make this one come to fruition. He’s off to a hot start this spring, with two home runs already.