Jordan Rosenblum’s 2025 Bold Predictions

This article highlights my bold predictions for the 2025 fantasy baseball season. I’ll set the over/under at three of these being right, as my goal is more to make you think than anything.  I have tried my best to embody these predictions in my various redraft and dynasty league decisions this offseason (that’s right, I still have Keston Hiura rostered in a few, admittedly deeper, formats!). I have listed them in approximate order of least to most bold.

Ronald Acuña Jr. returns top-10 hitter value in 2025 (per the FanGraphs player rater with Main Event settings).

Acuña Jr. will likely fail to eclipse 600 plate appearances this year given he’ll miss the first month, but he still projects to return first round value according to OOPSY, Steamer, and THE BAT X. In that sense, this is hardly a bold prediction. His Main Event ADP is in the third round, however, with drafters penalizing him harshly for a missed April, and also (fairly) for a likely dip in his stolen base totals in an effort to stay healthy. Acuña Jr. still projects incredibly well if you dock him ten to twenty stolen bases, however, and a handful of hitters have had top ten seasons in the recent past according to the player rater without eclipsing 600 plate appearances.

Jacob deGrom pitches 150 innings.

The Rangers will be careful with deGrom in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he has a shot to flirt with 150 innings if he is able to avoid a stint on the injured list. Taken together, known predictors of injury, like velocity, stuff, and past injury, explain only a small portion of the overall variation in pitcher injuries, which remain largely, but not entirely, random. This bold prediction has little to do with deGrom specifically, although his commitment to throwing a bit slower does not hurt his chances. Rather, this is a bet on the arbitrariness of pitcher injuries – and health.

Kyle Hart 하트 finishes with an under-4.00 ERA and exceeds 140 innings for San Diego.

Kyle Hart returns stateside after a stellar 2024 campaign in the KBO. His OOPSY projection does not inspire confidence, but OOPSY does not capture his KBO performance. Clay Davenport’s projections do capture KBO performance, however, and they are quite bullish on Hart, projecting him for a 3.53 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP across 106 innings. Do not be surprised if he emerges as a reliable mid-rotation option in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

Chase Meidroth leads the White Sox in WAR while posting at least 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases.

Steamer already rates Meidroth as the best player on the White Sox in terms of WAR per plate appearance, while OOPSY rates him second best behind Luis Robert, with both projections fueled by strong contact skills and plate discipline. FanGraphs’ scouting report for Meidroth highlights an ability to play a decent shortstop, where he has also spent 80% of his time this spring training. Given his lack of power, Meidroth’s best chance to make this prediction come true would be if he is able to improve his defense and stick at shortstop rather than his more likely destination, second base.

Pete Fairbanks hangs onto a closing job all year.

It is easy to point out warning signs for Pete Fairbanks right now. He has struggled to throw strikes this spring after an inconsistent and injury-plagued 2024 where he was frequently featured in trade rumors. His projections remain strong, however, and he is reportedly healthy, with similar fastball velocity to last year. He likely will only get traded if he gets off to a hot start and demonstrates his health, which would make him a serious candidate to continue to close for the acquiring team as well.

Kumar Rocker finishes with a lower ERA than Jacob deGrom.

While I think deGrom has a better shot to stay healthy than most people give him credit for, his commitment to holding back a little may lead to a slightly more ordinary performance than we are accustomed to seeing from him, e.g., his K% minus BB% has been a good but unspectacular 19% during spring training. Kumar Rocker has excellent pitching projections in his own right, with OOPSY forecasting him for a 3.45 ERA, compared to a 3.01 ERA for deGrom. Given a potentially surmountable gap in talent and lots of random variation in ERA each year, Rocker has a shot to make this one come to fruition.

Spencer Torkelson leads the Tigers in home runs.

Spencer Torkelson enters the post-hype phase of his career fighting for a major league roster spot. His projections remain solid, however, with a comparable OOPSY wRC+ forecast (107) to Colt Keith (108), making him the fifth best projected hitter on the team. Injuries to teammates and a strong spring have given Torkelson a last-ditch opportunity to break out. Torkelson has a good shot at hitting this one if he can reclaim an everyday role.

Jhonkensy Noel leads the Guardians in home runs.

On a per plate appearance basis, Jhonkensy Noel is already projected to lead the Guardians in home runs according to both Steamer and OOPSY, with 29 home runs over 600 plate appearances. He’ll have his work cut out for him to even sniff 600 plate appearances, however, as he offers limited defensive value and is projected to start the season in a short-side platoon role. To make this one come true, he’d likely have to out-hit Kyle Manzardo and Nolan Jones—a feat he is certainly capable of.

Jackson Jobe leads the Tigers in…saves.

Jobe was solid in Double-A last year and has since struggled to rack up strikeouts over a small sample across Triple-A, MLB, and spring training. There is a divide between how scouts view him—as a future top-of-rotation arm—versus how projections view him. While Jobe will open in the rotation, he won’t have a ton of leash if he struggles, and Detroit lacks a clear closer. It’s easy enough to imagine Jobe shifting to the bullpen after struggling early on in 2025, and dominating thereafter.

Keston Hiura leads the Rockies in RBI after May.

Keston Hiura didn’t make the team to start the year, but he maintains the best OOPSY wRC+ projection on the Rockies. This may say as much about the Rockies as it does about Hiura, but a hot start in Triple-A should give Hiura one more shot to live up to his projections, which feature an ugly K% but lots of power. In another park, he would still be hard to dream on, but the path to fantasy value is not so difficult to imagine in Coors.