Jon Lester, Fantasy Ace

As a cancer survivor, Jon Lester is a great human interest story and one of the easiest players to root for in the game. However, as hyperbolic as it might sound, the Red Sox lefty might just be underrated in fantasy circles heading into the 2009 season. Here are some reasons why the 25 year-old should be high on your draft list:

Improved Peripherals

In his first full season in the majors, Lester posted a solid 2.3 K/BB ratio and a 3.64 Fielding Independent ERA. Control had always been something of an issue for Jon as he climbed the minor league ladder (he walked about 3.8 batters per nine innings), and remained so during stints with Boston in 2006 (4.76 BB/9) and 2007 (4.43 BB/9). In ’08, however, he pared that walk rate down to 2.82 per nine innings.

His K rate (6.5 per nine) was essentially league average, but he did fool more batters as the year progressed. After posting 5.9 K/9 during the first half of the season, Lester struck out 7.4 per nine innings during the home stretch.

More Groundballs

After posting groundball rates of 40.6% in ’06 and 34.4% in ’07, Lester improved his percentage of worm burners to 47.5. The reason for the increase would appear to be an interesting hybrid sinker pitch that Lester picked up. Earlier this offseason, I examined Jon’s pitch F/X data and found the following:

“I found out that what we’re seeing on Lester’s chart is actually the combination of a four-seam and one-seam fastball. That’s right, one-seam. Lester throws an offshoot of a sinker, gripped in an unusual manner along just one seam of the baseball…Lester’s use of the one-seamer may also explain a pretty big uptick in his groundball percentage.”

If the uptick in grounders holds, Lester shouldn’t have many issues with the long ball.

Improved Velocity

If there’s one concern with Lester heading in to the 2009 season, it’s his rather dramatic increase in innings pitched. The 6-2, 190 pounder was one of the “Verducci Effect” candidates that we identified back in December, as he tossed 74 more frames in 2008 than he did the previous campaign. While velocity is just one sector of what goes into pitching, Lester did throw harder as the season progressed, suggesting that he was not tiring on his way to a career-high workload:

Lester’s fastball velocity by month:
April: 90.8 MPH
May: 91.5 MPH
June: 91.8 MPH
July: 92.4 MPH
Aug: 92.5 MPH
Sept: 93.7 MPH

There’s a lot to like in Jon Lester. Better strike zone control, a devastating cutter/curve combo, improved fastball velocity, a higher percentage of grounders induced..the list goes on. Don’t be surprised if this southpaw puts his hat in the ring of AL Cy Young contenders in 2009.