Jeremy Hellickson is Throwing Us a Curve

For much of his career, Jeremy Hellickson has been a fantasy afterthought, but in the midst of his ninth season, he is getting some owners to take notice. He is owned in a majority of the leagues on CBSSports.com and Fantrax, and he is not just being picked up for Tuesday night’s matchup against the lowly Padres. On both of those sites, Hellickson was owned in roughly 50 percent of leagues during the previous weekly scoring period. Even on ESPN.com, where leagues tend to be shallower, Hellickson currently has a home in 46 percent of leagues.

The 31-year-old is simply off to a great start to his 2018 season. Since joining the Nationals’ rotation in mid-April, Hellickson has been steady, allowing three runs or fewer in each start, adding up to a 2.20 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. He has been pitching in the zone (45.2 percent) more often than in any season since he lost rookie eligibility in 2011, and among pitchers with at least 30 innings, only Miles Mikolas has a higher first-strike rate than Hellickson’s 71.1 percent. His improved control is serving him well, as he is allowing contact on pitches in the strike zone at a lower rate than he has compiled in any full season. Hellickson’s strikeout rate of 21.5 percent may not be a head-turner for fantasy owners, but it, too, is higher than any rate he has had over a full season.

There is not a shortage of owners willing to take a flier on Hellickson in the hopes that he can continue to exceed modest expectations. Is there reason, though, for owners in 12-team mixed leagues to start taking the plunge in larger numbers? Hellickson’s improvement can be tied to his increasing use of his knuckle curve, and this correlation may be reason enough to gamble on him in standard and shallow formats. Not only has Hellickson increased his usage rate from 12.7 percent last season to 24.4 percent in 2018, but he is throwing a better knuckle curve. It’s a major driver of his improved control, as he is throwing it in the strike zone at a 56.4 percent rate — up more than 13 percentage points from 2017. His knuckle curve swinging strike rate of 16.4 percent is also a career high.

Hellickson’s knuckle curve is doing more than helping his strikeout and walk rates, the latter of which is a career-best 4.1 percent. He has de-emphasized his sinker this season, and the knuckle curve is generally a better pitch for lowering one’s Iso, so it may not be mere coincidence that he is boasting career lows with a .122 Iso and 7.7 percent HR/FB. Hellickson is throwing the pitch with less spin, decreasing his rate from 2924 mph last season to 2797 mph so far this year. That may be helping him to achieve a 73.9 percent ground ball rate on the pitch and a 48.3 percent overall ground ball rate. Both are career highs by a good margin.

Aside from fears of regression, there is another reason to exercise some caution before putting Hellickson in your fantasy rotation. Davey Martinez has been extremely averse to letting Hellickson go through the opposing batting order more than twice. He has faced a batter for a third plate appearance only 13 times this season, and he has reached six innings in only one of his starts. The strategy does makes sense, as hitters are amassing a .381 OPS against Hellickson in their first plate appearance, a .478 OPS the second time and a 1.615 OPS the third time.

As for those regression fears, those should not subside for at least four more starts, as Hellickson has thrown just 110 knuckle curves to date. For example, as FanGraphs’ own Alex Chamberlain recently noted, swinging strike rates on curveballs don’t become acceptably reliable until after roughly 180 pitches. Even if Hellickson’s stats hold up once he reaches that point, there is still the risk that he could revert to his former levels of bat-missing and ground-ball inducement.

Even with those risks to consider, there is an argument for picking Hellickson up right now…or at least before Tuesday night’s start. If he shines against the Padres, he could be an attractive waiver option, given that he is scheduled to make road starts against both the Orioles and Braves next week. Pick him up now, and then you will have six days to decide if you trust him as an active two-start pitcher.