Jayson Werth, National League Outfielder

by
August 22, 2011

It’s time to avoid the puns and get right to it: Does Jayson Werth deserve a lineup spot in shallower leagues right now?

We know that some of Werth’s problem is luck. He’s showing a .282 BABIP right now and his xBABIP, based on his unique mix of batted balls, is .303. Since earlier in the season, he’s hitting more line drives and fewer infield fly balls. Both good things, they also lead to a better batting average. That’s probably why he’s hitting .261 since the All-Star break.

But of course BABIP doens’t explain away everything. Werth is striking out in 24.5% of his at-bats this year. Though that’s right on his career average (24.7%), it’s also a three-year high. Strangely, he’s showing the best contact rates of his career, across the board. He is reaching more than he has since he was a Blue Jay, which could mean he’s pressing some. First year of a big contract and all that. We know that more contact outside of the zone is not always a great thing, so perhaps his added contact on bad balls is leading to one of the lowest line drive rates of his career.

One thing you notice with Werth is that he has a career baseline and a Philly baseline. We saw it with his strikeout rate, and it also appears when you look at his batted ball mix. This year, his fly ball rate (39.4%) and ground-ball to fly-ball ratio (1.08) are all within career norms (40.9% and .93 respectively). But if you look at his best years in Philadelphia, he hit more fly balls (around 45% and .81 respectively in 2009 and 2010). Right now, he’s showing the same batted ball stats as he did in 2008 (.273, 24 HR, 20 SB), just minus a little power.

It’s probably the missing power that is most disturbing. Other than last year’s BABIP-driven .296, Werth never showed a plus batting average over a full season. But his full seasons in Philadelphia did come with a .200+ ISO. Now his ISO much closer to average (.151 this year, .141 is average), and most of his batted-ball stats have hit a reliable sample size threshold.

Most troubling is his career-low HR/FB (11% this year, 15.3% career). Strangely, his HR/FB on pulled balls is about at career norms (34.8% this year, 38% career). The problem is that he’s hitting pull fly balls at 19% rate, and that number was 24.5% and 29.8% over the past two years. Pull the ball in the air, Jayson!

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One thing that doesn’t make sense is Werth’s struggles against lefties this year. A career 137 wRC+ against southpaws, he’s benefited from the platoon split most of his career. His .228 BABIP against lefties (.321 career) screams for regression. He’s only hitting 8% of his fly balls for home runs off them (18.8% career), too.

Since it’s really a little late in the game to expect major regression in many of these categories, it’s best to be a little pessimistic about Werth this season. Even if he could bounce back next season, his ISO is just about to be reliable, and he’s had low-powered full years before.

Given his strikeouts and current batted balls, a .250-.260 average is about the best one can hope for. He could easily manage a 20 HR/ 20 SB pace even in this reduced state, too. Obviously, that’s still a start in most leagues — or at the very least a bench/matchups play. But in a ten-team, three-man mixed-league outfield, he might not make the cut. Call him a comfortable top-50 outfielder, in other words, and probably not ‘werth’ the roster spot in that situation.

Dang, I couldn’t manage it for an entire article.





 

With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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hunterfan
14 years ago

Why is it a little late to “expect major regression in many of these categories” if Werth truly is getting unlucky and none of this is due to, say, poor performance by him? If I flip a coin ten times and it lands on heads ten out of ten, my chance for tails going forward is still 50%…there’s no reason NOT to expect regression.

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Eno SarrisMember since 2020
14 years ago
Reply to  hunterfan

Mostly because so many of his stats that are out of whack have passed reliability thresholds. We can say that everything in his stat line other than BABIP is pretty much 70% reliable going forward. ISO is close even.

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